podcasts
podcast
mgopodcast
2022 ohio state

MGoPodcast 14.13: The Football Guys Comment Count

BlueBarron November 28th, 2022 at 7:00 AM

3 hours(!!!) and 11 minutes

The Sponsors

Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.

Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, Venue by 4M where we recorded this, TicketIQ! and The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass.

1. General Vibes

starts at 1:00

The story looked like it was going to be "Michigan lost this game because Blake Corum and Mike Morris were out and Michigan didn't have the recruiting depth to make up for it." And then Mike Sainristil completely denies a touchdown with a pass break-up and Donovan Edwards cleans up the rest. Ohio State said "make JJ beat us." And then he did. Michigan exposed Ohio State to their 3rd down issues. Ohio State's whole offseason was about saying "last year was a fluke." It wasn't. On 3rd and short, Ohio State is sawft. Michigan has always been behind the meta game vs Ohio State. For the first time in a long time, it feels like Michigan is ahead of Ohio State tactically. Michigan can simulate Ohio State's offense in practice, but can Ohio State simulate Michigan's smash mouth run game? The story of Ohio State last year was they had a bad defensive coordinator and Michigan was able to expose their flaws. This year... they still exposed the Ohio State defense's flaws. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. Offense vs Ohio State

starts at 23:30

Ohio State comes in with a very aggressive up-front defensive approach, so Michigan throws deep to Cornelius Johnson. That same play happened in the Penn State vs Ohio State game. Brian's takes on Cornelius Johnson are preserved. Michigan wasn't able to run their go-to offense, but once they hit the deep balls to Cornelius Johnson and Colston Loveland Ohio State had to drop their safeties. THEN Michigan could run their offense. What is a "catchable" ball? JJ had some great decision making, especially on some scrambles and on his touchdown run when Ohio State wasn't set. Olu is Brian's favorite Center, even more than senior Molk. Once again, just a little bit of QB run was able to confuse the defense. Cornelius Johnson's route running was frustrating for much of the year, all is forgiven after this game. They did a lot to set up that RB pass play to Loveland. Colston Loveland is ready now. 

3. Defense vs Ohio State

starts at 1:03:08

Alex's take on the Ohio State offense from a month ago was on point. Once Ohio State gets to 3rd and short, they are horrible. They don't have a consistent run game that can get 3-ish yards, you can't build a run game off of getting either 12 yards or no yards. There were a lot of plays where Michigan couldn't get to Stroud, but CJ Stroud didn't have anything. If CJ Stroud runs at all it might change Michigan's defensive approach but Stroud won't even scramble. The coverage in this game was incredible. Michigan finally gets turnover luck in The Game and it didn't even really matter. There was maybe one bust? Last year Sainristil caught the flea flicker from Cade, this year he went god mode on defense, so next year he'll be the kicker. Will Johnson has grown up over the course of the season. Ohio State had their heads down in the 4th quarter and Michigan knew "we are going to win." The headbutt was probably the end. McGregor had a great TFL to eventually force a punt. God bless Michael Barrett, he didn't have a huge role in this defense but he sticks it out and he had to learn a whole new role. His progress has been outstanding. There is probably some truth to the idea that these players are completely bought into the program. Michigan is now Stanford with more talent. Rod Moore is not boring but in a good way! 

4. Hot Takes and Game Theory

starts at 1:43:38

Takes hotter than Ryan Day's hot seat. Brian's hot takes voice has transcended. The biggest bummer from this game might be that if Blake Corum puts up Donovan Edwards' numbers he would win the Heisman. Ryan Day is a coward and a turtle. Several of Ohio State's punts were probably a "go for it" situation. He is a super conservative coach on 4th down decision making, some of these decisions might be from the fact that Ohio State has never really needed to play in dogfights or from playing down. Stroud was begging to go for it on 4th down after the 1st and 35, they still punted. Ohio State had a fake punt that they could've gotten a huge gain from, but they botched it. MSU and OSU's hate for Michigan finally backfired this season. Ohio State seemed like they weren't expecting Michigan to fight back like they did. Michigan's clock management before halftime was probably the right move. That was a gutsy 4th and 1 call, all things considered. Would a punt have been better than Moody attempting a 57 yard field goal? Ryan Day turtle'd and Michigan gets it right, is he on the hot seat? If you play offensive line at Michigan, people will know your name. Michigan is recruiting heavily in Ohio now, what happens when you beat Ohio State? Do any of Michigan's coaches leave after this season? 

5. Around the Big Ten With Jamie Mac

starts at 2:43:24

Jamie gives us his personal takes on The Game. Purdue wins the Big Ten West, somehow. Indiana lost their quarterback on the opening drive. Purdue is a much better matchup for Michigan than Illinois. This year is similar to last year where Michigan dodged a hot Wisconsin team (and Illinois is the new Wisconsin). Northwestern goes 0-11 in North America and 1-0 in Europe. Why is Spencer Petras playing football?? Nebraska wins an improbably(?) game against Iowa. The sins of the Iowa offense caught up with them, Nebraska has a bad defense but the Hawkeyes put up less than 300 yards. Michigan State rushes for 25 yards and fails to gain bowl eligibility - they get rushing rutger'd! Michael Penix is... 5th in the Heisman trophy odds??? Michigan State might be in for another long year next year. Minnesota gets their 3rd win over Wisconsin in five years. Wisconsin gets Luke Fickell as their new head coach! 

MUSIC:

  • "New Day Tonight"--Michael Rault
  • "Three Day Loser"--Joy of Cooking
  • "Tek It"--Cafune
  • "King"--Zayde Wølf
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS:


"More like a global Fundemic!"

Comments

rc90

November 28th, 2022 at 7:32 AM ^

If there is one hot take I have learned this year it is that a team needs a lot of practice time to have a tough running game. Talent and coaching are also necessary but not sufficient, because you also need lots and lots of time. That is the narrative I am going with when I try to understand why Michigan's pass game had problems this year -- they just didn't have time to work on the pass game -- and why Ohio State can't run on 3rd and 3.

Joined: 02/15/2016

MGoPoints: 8513

The Homie J

November 30th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^

And there's a reason that the only team to really stone us up front was Illinois, the team that faces an offense like ours in practice every week.

Somebody, I forget who, pointed out that it's easier to Michigan to simulate Ohio State's offense in practice than it is for Ohio State to simulate Michigan's offense in practice.  Scout teams can throw the ball around like a high flying offense, but it's incredibly hard to have guys suddenly pretend to be 300 pound maulers executing tough assignments on the fly with dozens of different plays

Joined: 01/11/2018

MGoPoints: 17408

Mr. Elbel

November 28th, 2022 at 8:10 AM ^

Listened through the offense breakdown on the way to work, but with a THREE HOUR POD it’s gonna take the commute home and all of my breaks today to actually finish up. Very excited!

Joined: 03/02/2014

MGoPoints: 21395

BOLEACH7

November 28th, 2022 at 8:20 AM ^

Was worried until Donovan’s TD run lol … big take is the resilience this team shows and that they truly are a TEAM playing for and off each other!!! 

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 11504

WFNY_DP

November 28th, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^

It is interesting to think about how our collective psyche about this game can play with our minds.

 

In last year's game, when Michigan went right down and scored and then forced a three-and-out and was driving again, when Cade threw the bad-read INT at the goal line I thought to myself: "That was their chance to throw the knockout punch and they missed it. Welp." and just expected OSU to weather that opening storm and come roaring right back.

And, this year, in spite of all of the demons exorcised by LAST year, when Jim decided to line up for the 57 yard field goal, I thought to myself that the upside to making that kick didn't outweigh the risk of missing it and giving OSU the ball functionally at midfield in a game that was still only 11 points.

I hope the guys' stance that the rivalry has officially shifted is right and that my brain can finally let some of that stuff go.

Joined: 02/03/2010

MGoPoints: 2995

TheCube

November 28th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^

20 years worth of Ls will do that. Idk how many Ws against OSU it will take to get rid of that voice in the back of my head. 

My buddy texted me "that's game" when the PBU occurred, and I was like you're crazy there's still 7 minutes left lmao. Then Edwards takes it to the house. 

It's like the roles have reversed with these teams in this game. 

Joined: 12/19/2018

MGoPoints: 31596

BlueTimesTwo

November 30th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^

Yes, but those big plays happened because OSU knew that they could not simply play a normal defense and expect us not to run all over them.  Our O-line dominance forced their hand and we took advantage.  It is not like they were fluky bounces.  We made their defense pick their poison, and whichever one they chose, we made them wrong.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 13407

PopeLando

November 28th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^

We've been conditioned over 20 years to believe that ONLY good things happen to OSU.

First string AND second string QBs go down? Win a championship with the 3rd string.

Lose a player? Don't worry, there's 3 five star recruits waiting to take his place?

Is Michigan playing it close? No problem: turns out a key referee is a lifelong OSU fan and has no problems giving them a friendly bump.

There's been pretty much a full generation where Ohio State has dominated the B1G. And for those of us who are old enough to remember the Lloyd Carr years...we also remember how Tressel deployed a running QB and shredded us. Again and again. 

So we're used to having no answers for Ohio State. And Ohio State HAS been a national powerhouse while we went through a ROUGH time. 

Joined: 08/01/2015

MGoPoints: 68293

dragonchild

November 28th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^

I think how OSU recruits might have something to do with it.

I suppose it's largely forgotten, but prima donna was once a title of immense prestige.  It literally meant the leading female singer ("first lady") of an opera company, nothing more.  I.e., the best talent.  But they were also infamous for demanding personalities, to the point that now it's a boilerplate derogatory term for a high-maintenance headcase.  Prima donnas are, by definition, second to none in singing talent.  You can build a company around them; in fact you basically need to.  They were great draws.

But you can't build a choir out of them.

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

M-Dog

November 28th, 2022 at 8:44 AM ^

It's time to acknowledge for the record:  Our secondary can cover.

Turner, Johnson, and Green are lockdown corners; Moore, Moten, and Paige are excellent in bracketing elite receivers and keeping them in the yard; and Sainristil is a nickel that's worth (stopping) a dime.

And they are all fast, sure tacklers.

They are a hard lock to pick, especially in the red zone. 

I rewatched the red zone play where Stroud threw his first pick.  He had all freaking day.  But . . . he had nowhere to go.  Every OSU receiver was well bracketed and the throwing lanes were all occupied by a Michigan defender. 

He finally had to give up and run, and we saw why he's not a runner.  He gets tackled from behind and heaves up the grenade-lob pick.

I thought we were in trouble this year against OSU because we did not have Hutch and Ojabo and we showed no signs of being able to get pressure without them.  What I did not factor in was how good our secondary has become in coverage.  It buys us the extra time that Hutch and Ojabo didn't need.

Even the relatively few OSU completions to All-World Harrison were well-defended.

That's a defense that is going to work against TCU or USC.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257507

1VaBlue1

November 28th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^

You didn't hear one peep from Harrison when Turner had him!  His one big reception of the game, that ~45 yd TD, was actually pretty well covered by Green.  Green was step for step with inside leverage that forced an absolutely perfect throw and a play-makers catch from a play-maker.  That they completed that pass is nothing more than a tip'o the cap.  Not one bad word can be said about that coverage on that play.

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127087

dragonchild

November 28th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^

I thought we were in trouble this year against OSU because we did not have Hutch and Ojabo and we showed no signs of being able to get pressure without them.  What I did not factor in was how good our secondary has become in coverage.  It buys us the extra time that Hutch and Ojabo didn't need.

It's not that Hutch and Ojabo didn't need time; it's that we desperately needed them to get home.  What Clink managed to do with Green (who really struggled to pick up zone at first) and Gray (incredible underdog story but nonetheless athletically mortal) was miraculous, but we still had to give them sizeable cushions and they couldn't stay attached forever.

Since Sainristil established himself and Johnson came along I've been saying this secondary has no weak spots and that is significant against OSU.  I was skeptical about Minter's approach, though, because the conventional wisdom is that receivers don't stay covered forever, so we still needed to get to Stroud somehow.  But. . . I was wrong.  Five, six seconds in the pocket and Stroud still held the ball.  Has any team ever done that to him?

I lack the skill to pick apart coverages, but Clinkscale and Minter really worked wonders if Stroud had all day and still didn't like what he saw.  I'd love both of them to stay because they will be hard to replace.

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

dragonchild

November 28th, 2022 at 9:04 AM ^

OSU's defense was kind of like the Al Borges "Denard runs, Devin throws" game.  Load up on the run like you're playing HS football, and when that gets burned, put safeties back, get ground to powder, go back to sending the house again.

P.S. Everyone keeps questioning Day's conservative punting, but I think he knows his team.  The stats say they're terrible on 3rd and short, and when they got desperate Stroud immediately fell apart.  So how was he wrong?  The punting was the right call; it was just symbolic of OSU's struggles.

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

DetroitDan

November 28th, 2022 at 9:35 PM ^

In retrospect, we know the punts were the wrong calls, because Michigan won.  

But that's not fair, because they might have been the right calls given what was known at the time.  But that's conjecture.  With one of the best offenses in the country, and one that gained almost 500 yards at an average of 6.4 yards per play against Michigan, a case can be made the Day should have gone for it more often on 4th down.

Joined: 01/14/2021

MGoPoints: 4058

ca_prophet

December 2nd, 2022 at 3:29 AM ^

He was wrong because he trusted the defense that was getting shredded over the offense that was elite before they played us.  They can't pick up 3rd and short because they're not a good run-blocking team, but when it's 4th down it doesn't matter that they're boom-or-bust.

Specifically, if they don't have a play designed to get Harrison in single coverage by any means necessary - rub, pick, shallow cross, option route, America's rollout, whatever - that's coaching malpractice of the highest order, and they're not that bad.  Run that play and make Michigan stop your NFL-bound QB throwing to your All-World wideout.  Heck, put him in the slot and let him freelance; Stroud probably has enough time to lock on to him and figure it out.

Joined: 09/07/2010

MGoPoints: 7087

1VaBlue1

November 28th, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^

While I waited for my phone to switch from wifi to LTE this morning I listened to a little talking heads on the radio.  I think they're not really watching the game!  They carried on like JJ just picked apart the secondary and the running game ground into dust the OSU DL.  But that's not exactly what happened!  I mean, I liked hearing it, but it's so very superficial...  GAWD I LOVE THIS SITE!!!

Only had time to listen to the offense on the drive in.  This pod will take me into tomorrow!

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127087

Koop

November 28th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^

Listening to the pod, got to the defensive section, and heard the take "Ryan Day wants to be clever." About the idea that Day coaches like it's the NFL instead of college:

Yeah, about that. In the NFL regular season, coaches are rewarded for throwing downfield on matchup advantages on 4th and 2, because the odds are in your favor and losing one possession or even game is generally no big deal.

Not so in college, and particularly not so in the one-game season that OSU makes out of The Game. So Day goes for it on a dumb play on 4th and 2 and gets burned. Then, when he should go for it on 4th and 3 later in the game, Day's sphincter puckers and he chooses to punt. Playing reckless when you should play smart, playing conservative when you should play aggressive.

That's not "we had a bad defensive coordinator," or "we were sick," or "our toeses were cold." That's a head coach who woke up on third base but didn't hit a triple.

Joined: 08/16/2022

MGoPoints: 2699

bighouseinmate

November 28th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^

On McGregor, you could almost see in this game the light turning on for him. He had a handful of great qb rushes throughout the season, but the rest of the playing DE was lost in him. In this game I saw him setting edges, dropping into throwing lanes when his rush was stifled instead of continuing a lost cause, and perhaps better than anything, his eyes were on the qbs during those rushes and drop backs which nearly resulted in a pick-6 if he could’ve hauled in that one batted pass. 
 

My hot take is that he’ll be a big piece of the defense next year, likely a starter with okie and Michigan’s defensive front will be one of the best in the country. 

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 4969

Ballislife

November 28th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^

I honestly don't think it's that hot of a take. I do agree Braiden put it together in this game; I'm excited to see how this pans out against Purdue and in the Playoffs. Okie really started putting stuff together as well and will benefit from an offseason with Coach Herbert. Next year's starting four/five should be McGregor, Grant/Benny, Graham, and Okie. Those guys will be a great Hammer and Anvil combination next year. 

Joined: 02/26/2014

MGoPoints: 10049