MGoPodcast 14.11: Hurdle Fools and Only Fools Comment Count

BlueBarron November 14th, 2022 at 5:12 AM

2 hours and 2 minutes

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1. Offense vs Nebraska

starts at 1:00

The Bon Jovi music era is the last time Nebraska football was good. The consequence of Michigan rising to elite status is that most games are boring now. Michigan duo'd Nebraska to death and that's all it took to win this game. Even with injuries on the offensive line and running backs, Tavierre Dunlap and C.J. Stokes still ran all over them. Honigford might get a couple negatives but nobody else might get one. The error rate has fallen considerably since the Rodriguez era. Michigan leads the country on 4th downs (10 of 11). It's boring. It's good. They were still able to RPO an open touchdown to Ronnie Bell. Is it better to put a lot of stuff on film for Ohio State to have to prepare for or is it better to keep a lot of stuff close to home? The passing game was a little concerning but the way this running game is going you don't need a lights out passing game to beat Ohio State. McCarthy needs to give his guys downfield a chance but the receivers also feel like they took a step back. The ball going out the back of the endzone being a touchback is still a terrible rule but it's funny when it doesn't happen to you.

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. Defense vs Nebraska

starts at 50:33

So... not much to say here. Michigan has seven guys that could start for Nebraska at defensive tackle. They all make plays on the line. Michigan is good at hammer but not as good at anvil. DJ Turner was beat over the top once. Other than that, did anything happen? The failed hurdle looked like a wrestling tag-team finisher. The guy was hit in the dong and RGIII didn't even say anything about it! Apparently clowns explode at birthday parties. They're trying to get Will Johnson as many snaps as they can before Ohio State. 

3. Hot Takes and Game Theory

starts at 1:11:10

Takes hotter than RGIII after he saw a helmet go into somebody's, you know, and then he's like "oh I'll get fired if I explode." Split Davis Warren and Donovan Edwards on deep throws? The clock management at the end of the first half was a debacle, but has poor clock management ever cost Harbaugh a game? "Just run it on 3rd and 6" seemed like a fine decision in this game. Officiating was fine except for the missed "roughing the punter" call. RGIII was fine but Mark Jones wanted to talk about anything but football. 

4. Around the Big Ten With Jamie Mac

starts at 1:34:30

Illinois was a 6-point favorite against Purdue and had an opportunity to maintain their grasp on the Big Ten West and then... lose by 7. The West was for Illinois to lose but now four teams are tied at the top at 4-3. If Iowa wins at Minnesota they just need to beat Nebraska to go back to Indy... Disgusting. Northwestern plays four quarterbacks against Minnesota. Iowa beats Wisconsin with 146 yards of offense in the grossest game of the season. Minnesota just needs to kick some field goals to beat Iowa. Rutgers vs Michigan State was a surprisingly offensive game (as in both teams had a lot of offense). Michigan State zeroing in on the Quick Lanes Bowl?? There is a... wild Payton Thorne quote in there. Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead when the Terps of November start losing. James Franklin got an unsportmanlike conduct penalty because he was screaming at his players and the ref thought James was screaming at him... so James did 15 pushups. Not much to say about the Ohio State game but worth noting that Miyan Williams was carted off with an ankle injury. They may get Henderson back next week. 

Zombocom. 

MUSIC:

  • "Bad Medicine"--Bon Jovi
  • "Stir Fry"--Migos
  • "Stay on Your Toes"--The Funky Homosapien
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS:

 


"That defensive tackle has been escorted from the stadium like he's a Michigan State player in the aftermath of the Paul Bunyan game."

Comments

ThadMattasagoblin

November 14th, 2022 at 5:26 AM ^

It feels like the "you don't need a good passing game because you can run the ball" crowd is going to get burned at some point during this season. We are in trouble if someone can stuff the run or we are playing from behind. That is likely to happen at some point either on November 26th or in the playoffs. They don't need to be Mike Leach at Texas Tech but need to be functional.

ThadMattasagoblin

November 14th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^

Yeah. The best teams are around 50-50 run and pass. The annoying thing is that the passing game looked great in September, decent in October, and not very good in November. Teams will scout McCarthy as the season goes on but if your passing game coordinator is worth their salt, they will make adjustments. It just doesn't seem to be there with Weiss. Hopefully, he proves us wrong.

jabberwock

November 14th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^

I hope so.  There are so many other types of passing plays that can set up some of those deep shots they seem willing to take (if not make).  Those plays help their running game become more explosive when defenses start keying on run.
I don't think they need to be 50/50 run pass, but those passes they do take have to make sense. (is the D leaving those exposed, does it work with your running game, etc)

CWood2

November 14th, 2022 at 8:25 AM ^

I guess I don’t understand how the theme that we don’t have a “functional” passing offense has come to be. Maybe it’s just that expectations rose and we didn’t notice it. 
 

Last year, our starting QB was ranked #56 in passing efficiency. Middle of the pack. Arguably functional, but clearly not enough to win a national championship, as noted in the Georgia game.

This year our starting QB is ranked #18 in passing efficiency. Certainly not elite, but absolutely “functional”, at least on a relative basis. I think we would all agree the passing attack is not where we want it to be, but we are obviously still performing at a higher level than last year, and we have a plethora of data/metrics to show that. 
 

Among them, a top 5 scoring offense, a punter often as busy as the Maytag repairman, and a deadly yards per play average on play action fake plays (which I’m hoping we are saving for OSU since we don’t seem to call as many as I would expect). 
 

All this with a true sophomore QB who stands to get better with more experience (even if not as quickly as we’d like). 
 

So, at the least, I think a pretty good case can be made that we are “functional” in the passing game, with a reasonable chance for further improvement at the end of the year. 

dragonchild

November 14th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^

This; do people not understand words anymore?

Brian says we don't need a lights-out passing game.  Not, "non-functional".  It does need to be there, and it is.  That's hardly saying much, but some jackass has to go all "durr hurr look at these idiots saying you don't need a good passing game" to be the smartest person in the room.

Rule is, if you have to make everyone else sound dumber than they are to make yourself sound smart, you are in fact not smart.  You're just being a jackass and even put it out there for posterity.  No one's impressed.  Next time, before proving something, try to understand what others are saying first, and then decide if you have anything to say about that.

MGoArchive

November 14th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^

"It does need to be there, and it is."

The passing game looks worse than it did last year. So for people to say it's "not there" is accurate. TBD on whether the run game and whatever sort of rabbit out of a hat passing game will / won't emerge and whether that combo will beat OSU and whatever opponent may follow in the CFP.

To hand wave this away concerns over the passing game away dishonest and stupid. No CFP champion has demonstrated a lack of passing game. The opposite is true - they had a pretty intense downfield attack. To his credit, Harbaugh has carved out something unique. It just hasn't gotten us to the proposed land (yet, hopefully it will though?).

CompleteLunacy

November 14th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^

Strongly disagree. *one specific aspect* of the passing game isn’t there. Deep passes. Everything else is just as good if not better - JJ has been money on intermediate stuff (Cade rarely threw intermediate) and it appears like Bell and the TEs are security blankets for him.

outsidethebox

November 14th, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^

I have a very strong feeling that Jim Harbaugh has a very good clue regarding this matter. There have been times in the last several games where defenses have walked the safeties up-putting 9 in the box and Jim did not care and they still could not stop Michigan from grinding out 5+ yard runs-and shoe-string tackles away from taking it 70 yards to the house. And there has to be a point to Jim doing this-beyond the game being played at the moment. He is daring, and wanting, OSU to believe they have to bring those safeties up too-and they will pay both for doing so or not doing so...they "get to" pick their poison.

As a coach, one of your significant strategies is to force teams to play in schemes and styles that are outside of their character...because they never do it well on a one-time basis. I had the great pleasure of playing for a great coach who was a master at this-and we won many games where we had no business even being strongly competitive-because of this "one-time" strategy. And for the consummate hand-wringers in this regard, JJ can make teams pay-regardless of how they try to force him to play. The game still needs to slow down just a split-second longer for him...and when it does it will be a glorious thing to behold. And Jim Knowles is not sure what to do with this because disguising pass coverages is much easier than confusing the blocking schemes this Michigan OL is employing and the (quadruple) reads JJ is making. Contrary to popular belief on this forum, all those pundit experts out there and all the OSU sites, JJ can throw the ball-may have the best arm talent of all these terrific young college QBs now playing. And regarding OSU-they do not have anyone in the front seven who can run with JJ. 

That's all...worry if you wish.

BlueSky

November 14th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^

At least against Nebraska, they had success with play action.  And according to Sam this morning, Al Borges said they are not doing as much play action this year.  

Maybe JJ needs to feel more comfortable with it or they are holding it back for OSU.  Maybe the ultimate PA with the flea flicker is coming?

Blue Vet

November 14th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^

I'm with Seth (I think): we're winning games, and that's fine with me.

Of course you're right Mr. asagoblin (may I call you ThadMatt?), our passing will need to be better weaponized. 

However, the fact that the team has had success passing makes me think of the transitive property of football wins. Though the transitive property has some validity in football, it's a weak predictor.

Similarly, I think that though passing hasn't been stellar lately, that doesn't mean it can't be stellar through the next games.

turtleboy

November 14th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^

We do seem to have two vocal outlier groups in the fanbase: one group acts as though the sky is falling, no matter the performance, and the counter group insists that nobody is ever allowed to complain, ever, and if you do, not only are you a simpleton, but you aren't a real fan. The fact remains Harbaugh has beaten OSU once, and has won 1 bowl game while at Michigan, in all the other years those two games were typically our worst performances of the year, either in the score line, or in team discipline, where those genius plays that we'd been "saving" all year were supposed to come out and carry the day. After we dominated Ohio State last year, Georgia dominated us on both sides of the ball, from kickoff to final whistle. While it's possible we're far better than we let on, and we're just sandbagging in guaranteed wins, there does exist a very large body of evidence countering that hypothesis that you have to ignore to believe so. We need to be a more complete team, and have a reliable passing offense, or we'll continue to get embarrassed in January.

MGoArchive

November 14th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^

This. If we really want to split the atom I world say the bowl losses suck but are immaterial. Maybe you could make the case the bowl wins help with recruiting though.

 

The 12 team CFP playoff is huge for Michigan. Even in years we don’t beat OSU, the season isn’t over and players aren’t opting out of playing (hopefully?). If Harbaugh does his job, we are back to Big 2 little 12 even with the addition of USC and UCLA

MGolem

November 14th, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^

Upon review it appears the Nebraska hurdler took the helmet just to the left of his dong in the thigh. In all seriousness he would have been in the hospital if it had gone otherwise. He is very lucky. And that is before he almost broke his neck upon landing. Not smart. 

Blue Vet

November 14th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^

Not necessarily to the hospital. I caught a solid surface hard right on the boys, and though I was incapacitated for about 5 minutes and had vivid purple coloration for a couple weeks.

And I know the difference: another time pitching softball, a line drive seemed to hit me right on the dong but instead it hit my upper, inner thigh, with vivid purple coloration there. (I've got a picture, if anyone's interested.)

Beaublue

November 14th, 2022 at 8:16 AM ^

Has clock mismanagement ever cost Michigan a game?  Yes!   The MSU punt debacle game.

Michigan could have run the clock out by running wide to the sideline using up precious seconds more than they did by running straight into the line.    The clock could have expired after 3rd down if they just used up a few more seconds.  

rc15

November 14th, 2022 at 8:28 AM ^

The clock management at the end of the half was maddening. Should we expect JJ to call a timeout there? If I'm sitting there yelling at my TV, I'd think anyone who can be calling it should.

ThadMattasagoblin

November 14th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^

I think Harbaugh's thinking was that we would get the ball back after halftime so we didn't need to do anything risky. The problem was that we had over 4 minutes to go when we got the ball and we just let it bleed down to under 5 on the play clock on multiple plays with no sense of urgency. Also, giving the ball back to Logan Smothers at their 30 shouldn't cause you to play conservatively. There is not much of a chance of that guy airing it out and going down the field with under a minute to go before halftime.

NCBlue22

November 14th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^

I think it was an honest mistake that Harbaugh admitted to in the post game presser.  It looked like they were going to call TO but the penalty temporarily stopped the clock, then Harbaugh rightly so declined the penalty, but then everyone forgot the clock would start on the ready for play.  Shouldn't happen but that's what happened.  Harbaugh would have called TO if he realized the situation.  This is speaking to a few plays after the 4th down delay which I thought was appropriate as you don't want to be stopped on 4th with 45 seconds left.  

dragonchild

November 14th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^

I get the feeling this is the kind of program Brady Hoke always wanted.  "We're gonna run inside, and you're not gonna stop it."  The problem (well, one of many) is that he started acting like he had it, before he'd built it.  You can't prove you can run duo all day by doing it; your opponent has to prove they can't stop it.

As for the clock management, I figure by that point they knew how the game was going -- Nebby wasn't gonna stop duo all day -- and got sloppy because it wasn't going to matter.  And, it didn't, so, who cares?

ShadowStorm33

November 14th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^

I get the feeling this is the kind of program Dave Brandon always wanted.

FIFY. It's a massive misconception that Hoke was the driver of our manball offense while he was here. Borges came with him from SDSU, where they ran a West Coast passing spread. It defies logic that he would all of a sudden decide that manball is the way to go, regardless of how poorly it fit our personnel. Plus the dude was a DL coach through and through (there are even quotes from recruits' parents describing how he would introduce himself not as the head coach, but as a defensive line coach); I doubt he cared much one way or the other what offense his teams ran (similar to Harbaugh's position on defense). 

So, on the one hand, you can pretty much throw out the notion that Hoke drove our offensive scheme (and it clearly wasn't Borges either, he was always a West Coast offense guy), and on another, it's been confirmed that Brandon meddled in the inner workings of the football team way more than any AD should. The logical conclusion is that Brandon forced manball on Hoke...

Kilgore Trout

November 14th, 2022 at 9:22 AM ^

For what it's worth, Bad Medicine was definitely from the 80s. 1988 specifically off the album New Jersey. Blaze of Glory was indeed on the Young Guns II soundtrack in 1990. Very solid era of arena / glam / hair rock. 

blueheron

November 14th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^

I find it interesting that Honigford, a 6th-year player and seemingly bright guy, is often in the break-even range for blocking points. Is it because his role is super complex? I wonder. (I'm not knowledgeable enough to figure it out myself.)

bronxblue

November 14th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^

I am not overly worried about the passing game thus far but (a) the receivers weren't THAT good last year so their relative struggles aren't a huge shock and (b) McCarthy isn't always making the best decisions throwing downfield.  That doesn't mean he's been bad or these receivers are bad, only they're playing at a B/B+ level and people thought they'd be closer to an A.  McNamara, for all his flaws, was a better downfield passer last year than McCarthy has been thus far and highlights just how hard it is when your receivers aren't world-class route runners and high-point fighters.

Also, given how atrocious OSU's defensive backfield played for long stretches last year we really should stop reading so much into the fact UM's receivers were able to get past them in one game.  It feels very much a sample size of 1 thing going on here and holding onto a performance from almost as year ago as evidence they might replicate it feels unrealistic.

AC1997

November 14th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^

A couple of weeks ago Seth talked about how the incredible success of our running game has made it such that there's little reason for us to try much with our passing game.  It indeed is exactly back to the Bo days and probably Harbaugh's dream.  That's fantastic to beat most of our schedule and for the conference and conditions and era we play in.  That doesn't mean we don't/won't need a successful passing game in big games and I worry less about the down to down efficiency and more about the overall structure, strategy, and flexibility of it.  Let alone the reps being devoted to it in games and practices.  

Why don't we run old-school screen passes to our RB?  Why don't we throw more bubble screens to get guys in space?  Why hasn't Roman Wilson run one of the fly routes since he came back from injury?  

 

As for Carr, I take some exception to the statement about him not being able to run like this.  It is somewhat accurate, but I think the biggest difference between Carr and Harbaugh was more overall aggression.  Carr was conservative to a fault and wanted to run, run, run, punt and let his defense control the game.  He wasn't particularly creative on offense to maximize the talent and he was not going to go on fourth down or run his QB or even do crazy run plays like we see today.  Except when he knew going into a game that we were underdogs - then he'd open it up a bit.  To me, that's the cautionary tale for Harbaugh - don't get overconfident in your one-dimensional system to the point where you blow a game to Iowa or MSU thinking you can out-muscle them.  Make sure you're diverse and practiced.