MGoPodcast 11.4: A Hat That Says Nothing
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[After THE JUMP: It's all Brian's fault. All of it.]
1. The Existential Crisis
starts at 1:00
If you can't get Jim Harbaugh to work at Michigan what is going to work at Michigan? Ace has an Arby's hat on. Harbaugh's worst team ever relative to expectations. Miss organized Harbaugh. It's incredible that every gamble didn't work out. Michigan since the Indiana game last year has been 14 points under the spread in every game. Why does Michigan not have defensive tackles? It goes back to recruiting two years ago when they're airballing on everybody. Gattis: looks like Michigan took a swing and it was a bad bet. We're stuck with Harbaugh until he's done. He'll have some decent teams and face. How did Harbaugh's track record with quarterbacks evaporate?
2. "Offense"
starts at 26:55
Jon Runyan got 20% as many carries as Charbonnet—we want you to pass but not give up on your running game entirely. And surprise: as soon as you start chucking it to your great receivers the ball starts moving. It seems like Gattis was a shot they had to take and they missed. Ronnie Bell's review was a catch—Mike Peirera said if they called it the other way he would have reversed it to a catch. Mason's fumble: he took two shots directly to the ball. Hooray: Michigan just has the shittiest luck in college football except maybe Northwestern.
3. "Defense"
starts at 39:44
Hot takes of the week reveals Brian is at fault for Michigan football, USA Soccer, Ann Arbor politics, and everything else wrong with this world. The DTs can't hack it, but your chicken salad is treating Jordan Glasgow as a DT? Old Don Brown thing getting exposed again: show man, get man, they run a man beater on 4th down. Basically everything has gone to hell and I'm at peace with it.
4. Around the Big Ten wsg Jamie Mac
starts at 51:50
Indiana struggling on the offensive line, just lost Coy Cronk. Ohio State points, Not THAT Miami was up 5-0 at one point. Art Sitkowski 9.2 YPA hello. Northwestern turned the ball over a bunch to MSU. Nebraska-Illinois how does this happen (Nebraska has our fluck). Brandon Peters was terrible. Maurice Washington left the game (hate to see it). There's no good games any week apparently. Did anyone stay up for the Wazzu game?
MUSIC:
- “Wise Up”—Aimee Mann
- “All of My Life”—Kevin Morby
- “On the Rocks”—The Rural Alberta Advantage
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music?
Well he's got a hat, it's not nothing. It's something, a hat that says nothing.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:11 AM ^
I, too, blame Brian for the ills of this world. That jerk.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
In all seriousness, if we beat osu in ‘16, I think the trajectory is almost a complete 180. I really think that game broke him. That was the last of fiery Harbaugh we saw. He just hasn’t been the same since, and this clearly isn’t the same man Hackett hired 5 years ago.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
The explanation was the change in rules and him taking the costly penalty, but, you're right, it seems like he just hasn't been the same. It's like Urban broke him.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
That spot against OSU was undoubtedly a screw job and I'm sure it hit Harbaugh pretty hard.
Hard enough to break him, though? I'd be uncomfortable with any thought process that would reach such a conclusion. Too simple. I'm reminded of the people who still think we were one ill-timed hit from ... the national championship (not just an appearance in the game) in 2006.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
Too simple.
Agreed, nothing is ever that simple. I'm sure the MSU 2015 dropped punt didn't help either, but there's more to it than that. There have been an unusually high number of medicals (Newsome, St. Juste, etc.). There has been a lot of attrition of highly ranked recruits (Hudson, Solomon, Simms, Singleton, etc). Right now the QB position is killing us. The offensive line while good at run blocking last year does not seem adept at this new system and/or pass blocking and that's a bad combination for Shea who can't deal with pressure. There's also the obvious...Jim's offensive system and how things have been so far with Gattis. You've got a number of holes at various positions in various recruiting classes like o-line, DT, and now probably CB. You've got the fact that JH is hard to work for with some personality types like Wheatley. Throw all that into a blender and you've got what we have here. Yeah, a win against OSU would have certainly helped, but it wouldn't have fixed the multitude of issues we're dealing with now.
Now, if Newsome was healthy in 2015, we didn't drop that punt and beat MSU in 2015, we got the ball back on that 4th down spot and beat OSU in 2016, Gary was healthy all year last year, Winovich was healthy for OSU, Gary, Bush, and Higdon played in the bowl game last year, Wheatley was still our RB coach, Hudson was our RT, Solomon was our NT, and Shea was actually living up the profile of a 5-star QB it would be a whole different world. But, as Casandra once said on Wayne's World "if a frog had wings it wouldn't bump its ass while hopping."
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
A quick note - a stop on that fourth down against OSU wins the game then and there. We had already kicked a field goal in OT2.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
What's for lunch?
Arby's.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:34 AM ^
Ace made a good point about transitional costs for those in the Fire Harbaugh group. Along with the financial costs (buying Jim and the next coach out and finalizing a new salary), the "hoping to see if the next guy can make us relevant in a few years" cost is too much at this time. Yes, the money is a drop in the bucket for the AD, but unless the program is willing to sell its soul, like hiring Urban, there are no guarantees. Might as well roll with the devil you know and accept the results... for now.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^
I was full-in on the 'Fire Harbaugh' train Saturday night and most of yesterday but then I started reading some posts similar to yours here. I sadly don't think you're wrong....
We're stuck in this hell aren't we?
September 23rd, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
Yaup..been on that "fire JH" all weekend. But these guys are right, we are stuck here.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:05 AM ^
Wise up - great song, great movie (Magnolia).
The issue for people who are deeply critical of Harbaugh right now are not looking at just the on-field play. The problems appear to run deeper than that. Most who are dismissive of the "fire Harbaugh" crowd are regularly dismissive of concerns that people raise about Harbaugh's tenure at Michigan that have nothing to do with whether Michigan beats Wisconsin on the road.
Players transferring on bad terms, public grievances toward Harbaugh from departed players, social media spats involving players (and, concerningly, Harbaugh himself), serious injuries to players that look to be at least partially the result of incompetence in specific areas of play, incredible levels of coaching turnover, players skipping bowl games in mass, inconsistent explanations regarding injuries, players parents posting things on social media cryptically critical of Harbaugh's practice routines, an f-ing Amazon series following the entire team around for all of a terrible season.
This is a full bucket of issues here. There are people on here who will go through every single one of those things one by one to dismiss them as irrelevant or "that I just don't understand" as though all different rules apply to Harbaugh because ??????.
It is not just about level of play. It is about the fact that there appears to be quite a bit of rot permeating through the program right now. It looks and feels like a bad place to be.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
But so much of the "off the field" issues happen everywhere, we just don't follow those teams so it doesn't register. Every team loses guys to long-term injuries. It's not incompetence - it's a violent sport. Two players complained on their way out last year, and even most of those complaints were because they didn't get immediate eligibility to play. Martell and Fields both left under acrimonious circumstances, but because the NCAA just let them through without an issue it didn't escalate. Zeke Elliott straight-up called out OSU's coaching staff in an interview after their game against MSU; everyone survived. And if you think parents and friends being assholes online to support their kids is unique to UM, you might just not be paying attention to college sports.
Michigan lost and Harbaugh is scuttling. Those are real issues. But not everything is some sign that Michigan is different than other programs or is doomed.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
This is exactly the kind of response that I am talking about. There is a "yeah but" to everything. There is "whataboutism" galore. I pay attention to college football, a lot. And no, the plethora of issues that I discussed above does not happen simultaneously everywhere. It just doesn't. "It happens everywhere" is now the calling card of those who defend Harbaugh with every fiber. What does that tell you?
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
You sure about that? Half of Penn State's team transferred in the off-season. OSU hasn't had off field issues? MSU? The shit around their programs is in a whole 'nother category, but it's not a big deal when you're winning.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
Penn State had 20 players leave the program this offseason, including the presumed starter at QB in Stevens. Florida had 11, include a bunch of guys who were recruited this same year, and Michigan had 18, which is more than you'd like to see but an insane number and, in a lot of cases, were related to playing time. The one big departure was the guy who said "Fuck Michigan" before he committed, so color me unsurprised he bolted.
I mean, stuff like this happens elsewhere. It just does. It's not an excuse. Clemson had multiple players get popped for PEDs before the playoffs last year; that doesn't happen at UM. Multiple places have reported schools like Clemson, Alabama, LSU, etc. just handing out money to recruits. That doesn't happen at UM. But those are transgressions that don't matter to people because those programs win, so because Harbaugh had a couple of guys complain he wouldn't lie about mental health issues and then were called out on social media for it, that's a Harbaugh problem.
Again, I don't know if Harbaugh is going to work out at UM. But it's not being an apologist to say "the sky is not completely falling" to everyone who wants to stamp their feet and hold their breath until it does.
September 24th, 2019 at 9:08 AM ^
That is one of the issues--loyalty. Eighteen leave, but how many left because of their decisions and how many were invited to look elsewhere? Harbaugh processes guys out when they are not performing to his expectations. So, when we need bodies because of injuries, we use fullbacks for linemen, etc. We don't have enough older guys in the locker room to settle things down and provide experience.
Also, when you see a guy that's counting on his Michigan scholarship only to see it pulled a couple of weeks before signing period, that sends a message to every prospect and player. The coaches get that message, too. When you see assistant coaches leaving for jobs with their main rival, that's just not done.
It's still college, and, like it or not, winning isn't everything. You don't think so? Take the school out of the equation and ask yourself, "my son has offers from Jim Harbaugh and Pat Fitzgerald, which way should I go?" There is no hesitation to my answer.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
@ijohnb You really ought to reevaluate where you find happiness and how your much identity is tied to UM football. Yes, I like to complain about the team (and celebrate it) too, and I also got bummed out about the game and Gattis' seeming having no clue yet, etc., but CFB is just my version of a soap opera, it has no bearing on my real life.
So safely assuming you're not on the team or coaching staff, why do you give a shit about "those who defend Harbaugh with every fiber"" anyway? So what if they do? Why so angry?
Find a new hobby.
September 24th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
Really weird post.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
I think it depends how bad it gets. If we still care of business and beat all the bad teams we play (Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland, & Indiana) and just lose to the ranked teams (Wiscy, Iowa, ND, PSU, & OSU) it's probably fine so long as we beat MSU. That's a 7-5 season with a bowl game. Although no one would be happy with that it's probably enough to earn JH another year to get back to the 9 win range. I don't think he'll be allowed to have two 7-5 seasons in a row however without a signature win over a top ranked team. However, it's hard to see this team beating anyone other than Rutgers and Illinois right now. If this team goes 4-8, they are getting booed at home, attendance suffers, and the 2020 recruiting class falls apart then it might be time to make a change because those transition costs are already starting to happen.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
Idiots believe firing solves everything. Everyone here thought we could not possibly get worse than Pep as the OC. And look how that ended up.
People should realize, it can ALWAYS get worse. Be appreciative of what you have.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
If you don't believe Harbaugh is the guy to get you there, the only prudent thing to do is wait one or two more years. Either things will get worse, in which case firing him is inevitable, or they will stay roughly the same and Jim can peacefully decouple by accepting an NFL job which allows all of us to save face. The hope is that somebody more obvious will have emerged, say Kansas State starts executing again under the North Dakota coach or Cal becomes a 10-win team.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
The transitional costs argument is nonsense, and it's frustrating to see it on a blog like mgoblog.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
No, what is nonsense is the assumption that there is no potential downside to a transition and that it is somehow easy to get a coach who will improve on Harbaugh's performance. Which, to be clear, means beating OSU and winning the B1G 50% of the time.
And nobody who wants us to fire Harbaugh has any idea who this potential replacement is, only that they exist and are obvious and easy to locate and hire and will 100% only improve the team and not risk any sort of backslide.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
The overwhelming majority of coaching hires do not have this transition effect longer than about a half season. It's a nonsense reason to not fire your coach. Unless you are talking about switching to or from the triple option, this should never be part of the conversation.
I'm in agreement that improvement is not a guarantee, but I'm at the point where I think that it is likely. Or at least likely enough that it is worth the risk to me.
September 23rd, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
He aint going back to NFL, look at his demeanor...he will be done after this ride is over. Whenever that may be...
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
There's no guarantee Harbaugh is the right guy. It's been 5 years.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:38 AM ^
I wonder if Bob Stoops might be interested. He is already signed to coach in the XFL, which admittedly wouldn’t be anywhere near the workload running Michigan would be. Still, if he’s indicated he’s willing to coach again, he’d have a stable of talented players available here, though would obviously need to rebuild the D line. If Harbaugh has lost his edge, I have to imagine he knows it. It would not shock me if he resigns after this season if it truly goes south and finishes 7-5.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
I have said this in a couple of other places, but after our last six games against Power 5 teams, 7-5 might be the optimistic look forward. The team that showed up against Army and Wisconsin would struggle to make a bowl game.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
Bob Stoops is going to be 60 years old.
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:55 PM ^
Bob Stoops reiterated last week that he has interests other than college football. (See his book that just came out)
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
I’m really tired of the “if not Jim Harbaugh, then no one can save the program” reasoning that fans have been telling themselves to cope with their misery. Plenty of schools rolled the dice on relatively unknown coaches that took them to great heights. It Harbaugh can’t do it, we restart and move on until we do. That happens across the board in every major sport, if a coaching staff can’t get it done they are fired and replaced until the organization/team finds one that can.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:51 AM ^
If Harbaugh was the version of Harbaugh that we thought we were getting when we hired him, then I could get on board with that line of reasoning, but the version of Harbaugh that we got is a zoned out, checked out guy with a bemused look on his face all the time. Do I think that somebody else can succeed where this guy has failed? Yes, I do. There are no slam dunks out there but we are at the point where there are good candidates who are likely an upgrade over Harbaugh.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
" Plenty of schools rolled the dice on relatively unknown coaches that took them to great heights."
And far more rolled the dice and died. The unspoken assumption is that its more likely than not that 'New Coach X' will excel. The track record, especially with us, is just the opposite. And I'm happier with Harbaugh than I was with Hoke or RR.
And, if you just keep shit canning coaches and hiring new ones every few years your recruiting and your chances of finding that awesome coach, who has a chance to go to a more stable program, plummet because WTF would a coach with choices go to a school that is so damned fickle?
We've had fine seasons up to this point. Not where we want, but still good seasons. Way better than what we had. Remember getting beaten *and* embarrased against MSU every year for 8 years? I do. No thanks. I don't want to 'roll the dice' on that again.
September 23rd, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
- 0-4 against Ohio State
- 1-9 vs. top-10 opponents
- 0-7 as an underdog
- 1-6 on the road against ranked opponents
- Five losses by at least 21 points, including three of their last five games
If you're satisfied with this and think Harbaugh can fix the broken mess he has created then that's fine I guess, but I don't think he can. In fact, I think he is going to make us worse, much worse, before we decide to move on.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
He's also 1-3 in bowl games, with two of those losses coming in games that we were pretty solid favorites.
Jim Harbaugh is probably the only guy on Earth who has been outcoached by Will Muschamp.
September 23rd, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
Harbaugh was playing 3rd string QB and missing 4 of his top 8 O-lineman. Explanation but not an excuse
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
Cooper, aside from his inability to beat Michigan, was a great coach. Hall of famer, in fact. What did OSU do? They fired him and took a swing at a guy that most panned as a desperate hire. That guy was Jim Tressel, and since that hire it’s been all misery for Michigan.
If we’re not willing to find our guy, we deserve to be mediocre. I don’t think Harbaugh should be fired today. But no one, NO ONE, should be content with the way things are and we should keep trying until we find the right coach.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
Other than one mediocre year, Frank Solich was a truly great coach. What did Nebraska do? They fired him and replaced him with a guy that most people panned as a desperate hire. That guy was Bill Callahan. And everyone was right about him sucking. Then they replaced him with another perfectly serviceable coach who they fired again for not literally being Tom Osborne oh, now they suck again.
Other than some late mistakes against Florida, Phillip Fulmer was a Hall of Fame coach. What did Tennessee do? They fired him and replaced him with a young up-and-comer. That coach? His name was Lane Kiffin. And he left after one mediocre season from which the team has never been able to recover.
We can keep going like this, it's not like Jim Tressel is the likeliest scenario. The vast majority of coaching changes do not result in numerous conference and national championships.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
And the places where the Tressel-type hire have worked tend to be places with way more natural recruiting advantages than Michigan. Ohio State can afford to take a swing because they own Ohio and Ohio still produces at least enough high end talent for them to eat well.
Michigan has to recruit outside of its borders to have high level talent, and we've seen time and time again how fraught things are for programs like Michigan, regardless of how much money they have. Hell, even places like Florida/Florida State/Miami that can throw a rock and hit 20 5 star players are on their ass right now in recruiting.
The other thing to think about if you make a coaching change is that with the early signing day, every coaching hire carries even more risk now than it did before. That's why Ohio State went with Day for continuity with their recruiting. If you hire from outside, the guy has a couple of *weeks* to assemble a coaching staff and begin recruiting. It appears that the rush to get assistant coaches to put a class together is what has put FSU and Tennessee into a bad funk, and Bud Elliot has pointed out that we're seeing way more early coordinator turnover now.
Basically, you fire Jim, thenext guy is likely either going to have to bring his whole staff with him which may contain some guys who aren't up to snuff for a Michigan type gig, or he'll have to throw a staff together with whoever he can get short notice, and increase the odds of a year 2 coordinator firing and all the instability that brings. It's never been this precarious before.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Most of the programs who have gone into a pit have made some really bad hires that were pretty obviously bad at the time, or at least somewhat underwhelming. Butch Jones at Tennessee and Mike Riley at Nebraska are a couple that come to mind. So avoid making a hire like that and you're probably not going to end up with a bum. Most of the guys who were getting fired deserved it too. Nebraska was very much on a downward trajectory when Solich was let go. By the time that Fulmer was done, he had had two losing seasons in his last four and was very clearly not getting the job done anymore. Can it get worse? Yes, it absolutely can. Can you avoid it getting worse by making a smart hire? You can at least improve your chances. So let's not do something really stupid like hire a MAC coach who just won his first division championship, and we should expect to be better.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
Oh wow, guys Hannibal in the MGoBlog comment section just figured out the secret to winning nattys every year. You just don't make bad hires! As long as you hire a good coach you will win! Why didn't everyone else think of that?
BTW don't look into Rich Rodriguez.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
The point is that you can see most horrible coaching failures when the hires are made, and I don't think that they are that hard to avoid. The lesson to be learned, perhaps, is that you should send out some feelers before you fire your coach to see if good candidates are interested. Hire a guy with a good track record at least two programs, or a track record at a program that you think translates directly into success at your program. There are four or five guys out there that have been mentioned here on the boards that I think fit those criteria. At worst, I think that they would be the same as what we've got now.
September 25th, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
The point here is that if you're to replace Harbaugh -- and I don't think Warde is this year - the coaching search has to be a real one, executed with all the resources we have and well-thought out. RR was a desperation hire, Hoke was hired because Brandon wanted a yes man. Harbaugh was hired through an appropriate search, and what we got was a top-flight coach for a couple years, as we should have.
An excellently conducted coaching search should be within the realm of what Michigan can do. I;m not sold on Warde being the guy to run it, because I'm not sold on Warde. But we have what we have.
The real issue here is that Harbaugh excels in all the "other" matters. No scandals, excellent academic focus, football players graduating, etc. That may well be enough for Warde to keep him around years longer than he should, for maximum football benefit, that is.
I agree with the poster who said that it appears there is something clearly wrong behind closed doors. Therefore, if Jim gives us 6-6 this year, he should be gone. But he won't be. Unless he retires, we're in for more years of misery.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:08 AM ^
We’ve fired 2 coaches so far and one of them (Hoke) had no business being a head coach at this level. That was DB’s failed experiment to hire a yes man he could control. You’re post speaks as if we’ve done this half a dozen times.
September 23rd, 2019 at 9:13 AM ^
People think it cannot get worse. They have not been watching Tennessee.
It can ALWAYS get worse (and more likely as well). Minnesota was once a great program. We can end up where they are right now.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
I would rather watch a team led by a player like Denard than anything Harbaugh has produced. These teams aren’t fun for me, at all.
And I wouldn’t call Hoke a “dice roll.” That was a truly terrible hire from the get go. Was anybody happy about that?
Rich Rod was a dice roll. The reasons that it didn’t work out have been detailed, and it’s clear that if we try it again, there are MANY controllable factors that Michigan could do to improve the chances of success.
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Plenty of schools rolled the dice on relatively unknown coaches that took them to great heights.
We rolled the dice with Hoke and lost. We also had seemingly sure hires who were highly successful elsewhere in Rich Rod & JH and those aren't panning out as hoped either. I'm not sure rolling the dice is good. Why can't we find a coach that can merely live up to recruiting/talent expectations?
September 23rd, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
The only reason Hoke was hired was so DB could control the football coach. We didn’t really roll the dice on an up and comer. He was 47-50 as a head coach with 3 winning seasons and one of those was 7-6. I would hardly call that rolling the dice on an up and comer.
September 23rd, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
True. However, Hoke was best man available that would take the job. His strength of schedule was impressive and his power ranking for the last year at SDSU was #24 while losing only to teams ranked in the top 20. His total miss on QB recruiting cost him his job. Look at how many recruits made it to the NFL.
September 24th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
I disagree that Hoke was the best available that would take the job. There was really no coaching search. DB wanted Hoke and hired him.
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