My answers ran long on NIL and transfers and Michigan’s clans, so I broke this mailbag into parts. The first is here, and this is the second, focused more on the Michigan 2022 questions. There were enough questions about Michigan’s scheme that I might pop out a third next week, or decide to save them for Neck Sharpies over the offseason.

Program Direction?

UofM Die Hard in Seattle asks:

Do you, Brian, Alex, etc …feel like this ship is finally ready to run on all engines, consistently year in and year out? Do you believe Jim when he says this feels like a beginning?

I can’t speak for the others but I do not, no.

It is the nature of college football to create narratives to fill in for chance. Flip a coin five times; if the first four are tails, Coinflip fans will argue whether the flipper or the coin needs to be replaced. Turn up heads on the fifth flip, and that’s the one we make a Teams podcast about.

“How great was 2021?” and “How good is the program that produced it?” are different questions, however, and the second requires acknowledgement that there’s a lot of variance. I think Michigan was a little lucky to win this time, and very unlucky that only one of five Harbaugh teams that played at this level came out champions. You know close they came. Alter an inch in 2016 and a Piggy 2pt conversion pass in 2018 and Harbaugh has two Big Ten East championships before Chris Olave ever lined up across from Brandon Watson (now Rusnak).

One good exercise when you’re trying to sanity-check the results of a season is to flip all the one-score games, and see how you feel about the season. We now have losses to Rutgers, at Nebraska, and at Penn State, but a win at MSU. That results in 9-3/6-3, 2nd place in the B10 East, and probably a Peach Bowl. Somewhere between that hypothetical (and still satisfying) season and the one we got was 2021’s peak distribution. Do that for the last seven years:

• 2015: 10-3, beat Utah and MSU, losses at Minnesota and Indiana
• 2016: 12-1, lose to Wisconsin, beat Iowa, OSU, FSU (probably in the playoffs)
• 2017: 9-4, beat MSU, lose at Indiana, beat S.Carolina to preserve the B10 bowl sweep.
• 2018: 10-3, beat Notre Dame, lose at Northwestern (blame “The Call from Mars”)
• 2019: 8-5, lose to Army and Iowa at home, beat Penn State on the road (probably doesn’t get Bama)
• 2020: 2-4, beat MSU, but no Rutgers comeback.

…and it looks like Harbaugh’s had Michigan playing at a B+ or A- level every season except the one where they had to play all true sophomores, and the one with all the COVID. The 2019 team was a lot better than the flip-it record.

There’s zero shame in coming out better than the flip hypothetical  —not only were we due, but it’s a mark of intangible things like timely decisions and plays. That’s where you get into things like Aidan Hutchinson’s leadership, how the players liked their coaches, how this team had fewer disgruntled players than others. I don’t have any way to measure that, or to know if it will continue, so it goes in the luck bin, but I believe in it. Also 42-27 was no fluke.

In the short term they’ve got fresh and upcoming talent at DT and CB—two talent-based areas we’ve been fretting about since 2018—and a ton of upside in JJ McCarthy and the receiver room Gattis put together for him. All four linebacker spots are sus, and Grandpa Hawkins’s stabilizing presence is an underratedly hard thing to replace. Past that they’re set up to return most of the 2022 team in 2023, but getting there requires navigating treacherous waters with new dangers, like the possibility LSU comes and buys your starting DT (like they did Mizzou’s this week). Depending on McCarthy’s development, the next few years could be a peak.

Long-term, it’s hard to say while we’re still waiting out Harbaugh. That’s gone on long enough that I now believe he probably does want to get back to the NFL, but the NFL isn’t biting. What version of Harbaugh does Michigan get back after that? People slow down with age and security, even The Jackhammer. I think Michigan’s climbed back to their Carr baseline, or where Dantonio got Michigan State, but the next step is the hardest, and the gatekeepers to that level are very keen to keep us out. Something more fundamental would have to change, from an expanded playoffs, massive schedule realignment, or new way of doing things at the NCAA that makes Michigan’s (and Penn State’s and Notre Dame’s) peculiar advantages into the most important ones.

If there is a difference now, it isn’t the underlying strength of the program but the fanbase’s mental fortitude. College football rewards highs and punishes lows, producing a few fanbases that can only experience relief when they don’t lose, and many losers whose only joy is others’ sorrow. Michigan fell down long enough to shed their hubris, and got back up with love receptors intact.

Intellectually, 2021’s may have been a Michigan team like many others. But to a new generation of fans, the experience gave them heroes and stories of their own. You don’t need statues, Seth & Sap, or other crusty old men to know what Michigan glory feels like anymore. A hundred thousand people saw it, and million more will one day claim to have. You get to tell those stories now. You were there. And will be for awhile yet. Long live snow.

Depth Chart 2022

This will be the photo of the offseason, just watch. [Bryan Fuller]

These are all position questions so we’ll go in our standard positional sort order.

QUARTERBACK

MGrowOld asks…

Who's taking the first snap at QB next year and will the loser of the starter sweepstakes stay on the team?

Aighhhh that’s a hard question to answer in January with all of spring and fall practice to go. The more time that elapses the more that arrow draws towards JJ, as I’m sure they’re both aware. But sometimes the answer to a tough question is simple. If one is clearly better than the other, you play the better. If not, you play the one who just led you to a Big Ten Championship.

The rub of quarterback in 2020s college football is you need two, but players believe there can only be one. Rare is the 21-year-old who doesn’t think he can become an NFL star if given the opportunity, and rarer still is the one who understands injuries can happen any moment. Ohio State couldn’t even hold onto Quinn Ewers during the season the kid was supposed to be a senior in high school.

Without knowing his mind or having any insider stuff, I’d guess McNamara leaves if/when he’s passed by McCarthy. I’d like that to wait as long as possible, because Michigan is better with both. Due to the COVID year they have the same eligibility (sophomores in 2022) so if one waits out the other it’s more likely to be Cade after JJ goes pro, and that would take some weirdness. There is a possibility of course that “weirdness” means an “NIL” package that keeps Cade in Ann Arbor through 2024. The most likely scenario I think is that the competition goes all the way through fall camp, both are on the team for 2022, and in 2023 we get a full season of McCarthy backed up by RS freshman Jayden Denegal and true freshman Dante Moore.

RUNNING BACK

Ye gods that’s a lot of carries you’re asking. [Patrick Barron]

waittilnextyear asks:

If Michigan doesn't land another RB (portal or '22 class), and with a workhorse like Haskins gone, who do you like emerging to spell Corum/Edwards? Relatedly, do you see UM going to more spread sets (maybe same # of TE's but empty backfield) to "save" Corum and Edwards from being overused?

I’d be the last guy to underrate Haskins. Thanks to his abilities and injuries to the other two, Haskins got 270 carries last year, which was more even than Kenneth Walker III’s 263 (in two fewer games). They might be able to get away with giving Corum that sort of load, But ideally it’s more like 200, with Edwards picking up 100.

That leaves, let’s say 50 more—a 2011 Vincent Smith level of contribution if you will. Michigan’s running game last year did a lot of running with Haskins between the tackles as a base attack. I expect they’ll shift some of that to passes that threaten with the RB in a route, which means usage will shift from the RBs to TE dumpoffs, scrambles, and “JJ Crappe.” That leaves 30 carries for a Tavierre Dunlap or CJ Stokes, give or take an injury to the top two.

Dunlap’s the likely guy—I really liked his high school film and he put up 7.3 YPC in two games while preserving a redshirt. That they’re only pursuing RBs they really like means they think Dunlap is capable, and Stokes could serve for a Corum/Edwards in a pinch. If they get desperate, AJ Henning and Michael Barrett can carry the ball.

WIDE RECEIVER

Are you not entertained? [Fuller]

mgodrew14 asks:

[Andrel Anthony] didn’t do anything and barely played until MSU game in which it seemed he played a lot and obviously did amazing, then seemed coaches put him back in cupboard… then he had the TD in the OJbowl - what is he not doing that he isn’t getting the opportunities like he did in that game? And why did he in that game?

Because freshmen receivers suck. Take a gander at the true freshman statlines of other #1-donning Michigan receivers:

• 22 catches for 508 yards (Greg McMurtry, 1986)
• 17 catches for 462 yards and 7 TDs (Anthony Carter, 1979) [Ed: FIXED]
• 12 catches for 248 yards and 3 TDs (Andrel Anthony, 2021)
• 14 catches for 149 yards and 2 TDs (David Terrell, 1998)
• 6 catches for 107 yards and 1 TD (Derrick Alexander, 1989)
• 4 catches for 47 yards and 1 TD (Kekoa Crawford, 2016)
• 3 catches for 38 yards (Braylon Edwards, 2001)
• DNP (Tyrone Butterfield, 1994)

The gold standard for recent freshman WRs at Michigan is Mario Manningham, who had 433 yards and 6 TDs in 2005. That was Chad Henne’s sophomore season, with only Avant and Breaston and Carl Tabb to compete with, and Mike Hart hurt. DPJ had a few more yards on twice as many targets, and again, the roster wasn’t nearly as deep as the one Anthony was ascending last year. Amani Toomer’s 16 catches for 238 yards and a TD in 1992 is a good comparison to what Anthony did. The only other impactful freshman WR I could find was Tae Odoms, but that was as the slot in a Rich Rod offense.

So to answer your question, Anthony was a true freshman in a stacked receiver room that went in featuring Ronnie Bell, with Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson breaking out, an NFL-bound transfer in Daylen Baldwin, plus Erick All, Luke Schoonmaker, Mike Sainristil, AJ Henning, and some excellent catch-and-run RBs competing for passes in a Hassan Haskins-featured offense. And in that context, Anthony still arguably had the third-best statistical season by a freshman WR since Anthony Carter.

Michigan showcased Anthony against MSU because he’s from East Lansing, but also because he probably wasn’t ready to compete until mid-season. As he got more comfortable in the offense, Anthony appeared to pass Baldwin and was siphoning snaps from the rest. Snap counts in individual games probably were reflections on who had the best week in practice, and the progression of injuries (e.g. to Wilson’s wrist).

Expecting more from a debut season is frankly ludicrous. Anthony is a popular candidate for a breakout 2022 despite Michigan effectively replacing Baldwin with Bell on the 2022 depth chart.

Also jhayes1189 asks…

What are the chances that all of our receivers return next year, even with Baldwin leaving?

I think they’re all coming back, though in today’s game I’ll never count on it. Four active WRs and two slots is a pretty standard depth chart. It’s also the same depth chart that Daylen Baldwin signed onto. What’s only changed since then is Roman Wilson broke out and Andrel Anthony became a candidate to. Don’t think that hurts with either of those guys.

You also have to factor in that Gattis likes to use Ronnie Bell out of the slot, where he’s been more effective in his career. That cuts into Sainristil’s snaps (Henning’s role is his alone), but Sweetness has 2 years left to play and doesn’t seem like a flight risk.

The only way the math changes is if another guy hops the order *before* next season. Amorion Walker (skin and bones) and Tyler Morris (injury) are due for redshirts, so your candidates are Cristian Dixon or a true freshman Darrius Clemons. Don’t think that’s happening. If we do lose a guy from that generation, it’s down the line once their order shakes out.

TIGHT END AND OFFENSIVE LINE

MGoChippewa asks:

What player(s) from the 2021-22 roster (IE, no incoming recruits or transfers) who didn’t see the field or played sparingly are most likely to be a starter/impact player next year? 

One of the young tight ends, most likely Matthew Hibner. I don’t know Carter Selzer’s plans, and Joel “Pump It Up” Honigford could return as a block-first tight end as well, but I think people assumed that at least one of them is leaving because Hibner’s ready and Hansen’s getting closer to the field. They had Hibner out there a bunch in mop-up hour, which is a sign they’re planning for him to be on the field next fall.

The other answer to the prompt above is Trente Jones or Karsen Barnhart. They had Jones playing the “OL in a TE shirt” role last year, and Barnhart was in at guard when Michigan was down both starters. One of Jones/Barnhart is going to replace Stueber at right tackle, and with Filiaga gone to Minnesota, whoever isn’t the starting RT is the 6th OL.

SECONDARY

Lose Uncle Brad, but get a whole year of DJ. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

AC1997 asks:

Which incoming freshmen should be expected to have an impact next year?

Will Johnson.

LickReach asks:

Where do you think the 2022 secondary will be on a scale of "2018 crossing route nightmarish hellscape" to "No Fly Zone TM" (i.e. a range of ability)?

Let’s start with the fact that the 2018 secondary was elite until Ohio State attacked third CB Brandon Rusnak (née Watson), and WLB Devin Gil. But I understand what you mean. 2020 is the disaster scenario. Here’s the preliminary 2022 preview math:

• CB: DJ Turner >> Vincent Gray
• CB: Gemon Green/Will Johnson == Green/Turner
• FS: RJ Moten << Brad Hawkins
• SS: Soph Rod Moore > True frosh Rod Moore/RJ Moten
• Nk/SS: ???? << Dax Hill

The total there is one tick back, with a lot of unexplored ceiling and a fairly high floor. RJ Moten had a young Erick All type of 2021, where you could see the potential but the mistakes were very loud. Dax Hill got a very hard job and biffed it a few more times than we’re all willing to admit, but replacing his athleticism is going to be tough. I think between Makari Paige, Caden Kolesar, Jordan Morant, Zeke Berry, Damani Dent, and five-star Keon Sabb they can find somebody who can play either the nickel job full-time, or high safety well enough to allow Rod Moore to take over Dax Hill’s role. They’re not going to be as sound as they were under Hawkins, but they could get faster and more athletic, especially as the kids come online.

Cornerback is another X factor. Vincent Gray was trustworthy but also had to stay high to not get burned, and hitches underneath him created much of the bend in Michigan’s bend-don’t-break defense. Unlocking the better blitzes in Macdonald’s repertoire demands athletes who can win a 1-on-1 battle all over the field.

Some of those athletes, and probably at least one, are finally back on campus. True freshmen are always coming from behind, and even the superstar cornerbacks (Woodson, Marlin) needed a half a season before breaking into the rotation, so I don’t expect Will Johnson to be an immediate answer. Gemon Green has always been a guy who can stay in contact but falls apart when the ball arrives, which seems like a problem that can be worked on over the offseason to create a very good cornerback. Ja’Den McBurrows could emerge, or one of the other true freshman as well to make that moot, but there aren’t as many options, at least right away, as there are at safety/nickel.

The Enemy The Enemy The Enemy

What we know about Nebraska. [Barron]

mgobaran

Which team on the 2022 schedule are we taking for granted? I'd say the majority of us think we will roll into Columbus with one or fewer losses. Who has the chance to sour our expectations?

Michigan’s schedule sets up pretty nicely next year—the entire nonconference slate is made of mid-majors who just fired their coaches, and Wisconsin and Northwestern came off the schedule for Iowa and Illinois (Michigan is now locked in with Nebraska for awhile). I haven’t paid full attention over the full preseason but general pre-Ohio State fears, ranked by how much we need to adjust expectations:

1. Revenge-minded Iowa, probably at night since it’s in early October. Early trick plays and Aidan Hutchinson were underrated reasons for the BTC blowout. Never underestimate a Night Kinnick.
2. Nebraska was much better than their record last year and is cleaning up in the transfer portal so far. I don’t know if holding onto Scott Frost and replacing the QB, RB, WRs, the left side of the OL, a CB, both specialists, and his entire offensive staff will make them better, but it does make them Not Dead.
3. Michigan State was still really good without KW3 and can fill holes in ways Dantonio couldn’t.
4. Indiana won’t be Broken Indiana.
5. September Maryland >>> November Maryland.

PSU and MSU will be at home, as will Nebraska and Illinois, but they’ll be an upgrade over last year’s Northwestern. Michigan has to travel to Rutgers when they struggled at home last year, but I can’t summon the fear for that when half the stadium will be Michigan fans.

The Game is what I fear most. Smart people are pegging OSU as next year’s championship favorite. They were a young team, return many of the best players in the conference (including Smith-Njigba) and probably won’t be switching defenses mid-stream next year, so that’s not a bad bet.

JWolve asks…

If you could cherry pick 1 player off of a B1G roster to be on Michigan’s team next year, who would you take?

Well, Smith-Njigba is the best returning player in the conference but we’ve got receivers. I thought about Iowa’s Jack Campbell, the nation’s leading tackler, because a steadying presence in the middle of the defense could be extremely useful. But how steady would he be in a new defense?

The other immediate needs are safety and edge. For the latter we could peel off Zach Harrison, which is the pick if we’re counting how much it damages the team we’re taking him from, or Wisconsin OLB Nick Herbig if it’s a keeper league. Aside from eligibility stretching to the horizon (he was a RS freshman last year), Herbig is eminently capable of doing the LB parts of the job that Macdonald couldn’t really get out of Hutchinson and Ojabo.

An All-Big Ten Coaching Team

I have here a list of 205—a list of plays that were made known to the head referee as being perfectly legal. [Fuller]

Blue@LSU asks…

If you could put together an All-B1G coaching unit, what would it look like? Coaches are only allowed to fill positions that they currently coach (i.e., Ryan Day cannot be the OC, etc.).

Oy, this is going to generate a lot of hate. I’m going to stay away from homerism where there’s another candidate close, because we already know enough about our guys. K?

Head Coach: Jeff Brohm, Purdue. Pros: Always has his team well-prepared, crazy fun trick play offense, recruits above Purdue’s station, loyal to his program, seems like a genuinely not insane person. Cons: Defensive blindness, needs to let us pick his coordinators (his brother is OC, Ron English is his DC).

Offensive Coordinator/QBs: Mark Whipple, Nebraska. Not for Nebraska reasons either. Two stints as HC of UMass, history of turning meh QBs into good ones. Far more responsible than Pat Narduzzi for Kenny Pickett and Pitt’s great season. This is also a reflection of the fact that most of the Big Ten’s best offenses, including Whipple’s, have offensive head coaches who are heavily involved, so I’m going for a guy who can have some major QB impact.

Defensive Coordinator: Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin. Is there any argument? You could also go with Phil Parker here—he does more with less in the secondary than anybody. But I don’t think there’s any argument.

Special Teams/Tight Ends: Jay Harbaugh, Michigan. Best special teams unit in the country, or one of them, year in year out. Coached Jake Butt to a Mackey, got the most out of Gentry and McKeon, recruited Haskins/Corum/Edwards/Charbonnet during his RB stint, then turned Erick All and Luke Schoonmaker into the best TE pair in the conference in one season.

Offensive Line: Kurt Anderson, Northwestern. A few obvious ones have graduated to OC or left recently so we’re going young. The Michigan alum has produced an instant turnaround after joining the program, and has been recruiting well above Northwestern level. He also produced two all-Americans and four all-SEC players in just two years at Arkansas. Sherrone Moore is hard to pick against here, but Moore’s candidacy is all the Anderson things minus a few years of proving it.

Running Backs: Elijah Brooks, Maryland. Whatever year it is, Maryland keeps turning up good running backs. Anthony McFarland, Javon Leake, friggin Jake Funk. Last year he had Challen Faamatau playing well until he got hurt, then managed to get more than replacement-level out of Tayon Fleet-Davis. Before that Brooks was the HC at DeMatha, so it’d be nice to have a connection there.

Wide Receivers: Brian Hartline, Ohio State. I’m not allowed to take Gattis, so I have to show respect to the guy who turned around the part of the program his predecessor could always be counted on to screw up. Elite recruiter, elite results.

Defensive Line: [Checks for the 988th time to see if he’s retired yet]. Nope: Larry Johnson Sr., Ohio State.

Linebackers: Bob Bostad, Wisconsin. Easy, though I have to give an HM to Seth Wallace, who’s done everything under Phil Parker. Bostad was actually the Wisconsin OL coach for years before flipping to defense and churning out TJ Edwards, Ryan Connelly, Leo Chenal, Jack Sanborn, Jack Cichy, yada yada yada.

Safeties: Ron Bellamy, Michigan. Highest ceiling of any assistant in the game right now, turned a unit that was an absolute mess in 2020 into one of the best groups in the country, while bringing along a true freshman. Elite recruiter, universally respected, turned West Bloomfield(!!) into the best football team in the state. I can also afford to go young/recruiting here with Leonard around.

Cornerbacks: Fran Brown, Rutgers. Longtime Rhule assistant,  crack recruiter, and vastly improved the Knights’ secondary play since he arrived. Nearly got the Temple HC job twice.

It’s weird that I got to the end of this without any PSU staff. They’ve got Manny Diaz slumming it at DC but I can defend Jim Leonhard there. I like their RB coach too, who’s been dealt a ton of injuries and keeps producing good ones since Barkley. A lot of recent turnover over there took away some candidates who might have made this list in another year.

I also invite Michigan State fans who mad to submit their own list of entirely Michigan State coaches.

Let’s Get Meta

Swayze Howell Sheen asks…

Could someone please write a good book about football theory?

The Art of Smart Football, by Chris Brown. Flyover Football by Ian Boyd. Come back when you’re done and I’ll think of more.

c2mcclel asks…

When can we bring back the chat room during games?

That was put together by a reader. I messaged him before the season the last couple of years, but he never got back to me.

Chris S asks…

Do you have any insight that you didn't before after doing a season of UFRs?

That many hours on a 40+ body means you have to get serious about ergonomics and such. Wrist pads for mouse and keyboard, good chair, good posture, monitor height—those film sessions are long and engrossing, and lead to compound injuries like tennis elbow if you’re not careful.

I learned a lot about football too, but that’s all in the UFRs. I certainly got better at them as I went along. I’ve actually been doing UFR-style charting for years now, since I made that part of Fee Fi Foe Film when I took over writing that feature. Seeing different teams every week was a steeper learning curve than the same one, and a better generalist football education, because every week you get to see different approaches to the same problems. But doing the same team introduced me into all sorts of minutia that I’d be looking for next game.

I think football fans know more than they realize, but the game happens so fast that it all happens in feelings instead of words. You sense when there’s a gap about to form in a stretch zone, and then when you watch it sure enough somebody got a reach block. You see Erick All crossing the formation and the defense shuffling around, and then UFR confirms the defense was keying it and doing something unstable.

Double-D asks:

Who would win at arm wrestling between Seth and Brian?

Right now Brian because I’ve got tennis elbow. When healthy, well, he buys the wood for his fireplace and I chop my own, QED.

However we’re both scared of Bryan MacKenzie, who’s got the stamina to outlast either of us. And I wouldn’t discount David Nasternak, who’s the greatest/only athlete among us.

Monkey House asks…

Would Brian be your starting QB or LB with his football knowledge and physical tools if you were starting a Mgoblog football team??

David is the only one of us who should be allowed near a football.

BluePhins asks…

Are you aware of any discussions about improving the gameday experience? Not saying there's anything I particularly dislike about it right now, aside from the usual "packed in like sardines" complaints. It feels like there's a perpetual arms race in creating an enjoyable atmosphere, keeping people in the seats and not home on their couches.

They’re determined to get the wifi done but it’s actually pretty hard to do that because most fans are so far away from a place to do that (it can’t go in the concrete). Other than that, not really, no. They led the country again in attendance despite a pandemic, and since their last home football game was the greatest they’re not too worried about people showing up for the rotten home schedule in 2022.

Last year I thought they were heading for trouble because they were basically selling free NIU and Rutgers tickets with Ohio State. Those games were not well-attended but only by Michigan standards—they were still large audiences. The Indiana game was the emptiest of the season, but that was because the idiots agreed to a night game in November.

If there’s going to be a push for better audiences, it’s from the program because they need it in recruiting. They got a lot of mileage out of the atmosphere against Washington last season. The program will want more of those kinds of games early in the season when the weather’s still hanging on to some semblance of summer.