Mailbag: Harbaugh Wedding Invite, Late Redshirts, Hockey Expansion Comment Count

Brian

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

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Hey Brian,

Please publish this anonymously because my fiancé didn't even want me to take this picture.

We're getting married at the Union this summer. Harbaugh is crazy, but not crazy enough to show up, right? Do we need to worry about a hora with enthusiasm unknown to mankind?

Thanks, and love the blog,

Anon

First: that's what we did when we got married. Did you get the Pendleton Room for the reception? It has a painting of Yost in it. That's what sold me (that and the fact it was the only appropriately-sized room in town).

Anyway. To your question.

You have committed a grave mistake. Harbaugh has just asked a 2016 recruit to prom, and they are still slightly disorganized after coming in from the NFL and scrambling to fill their 2015 class. The chances are high that they assume you are a recruit, or somehow connected to an important recruit, and show up in force at your wedding. There they will demand your brand new wife run 40s in heels. Your mother will be badgered into voluntary summer workouts. Both will  leave arm-in-arm with JayBaugh.

Your only consolation is that the younger Harbaugh will not have an arm to cradle the Lombardi Trophy that he carries with him everywhere, but can you confide in the Lombardi Trophy? Can you snuggle next to it for warmth on cold nights? Will it make you breakfast? No, no, and no. Your future is a bleak one, sitting across from a cold metallic unfeeling brick, trying to make small talk over endless breadsticks and salad. The Lombardi Trophy's only reaction will be to reflect a hideously distorted version of yourself back to your eyes.

Sounds like hell, anonymous. A hell you willingly signed up for when you taunted fate. We will remember you alongside our most foolish archetypes. 

Mid-career redshirts?

Brian- I realize I'm probably not the only one to think this but if Rudock does come and Speight seems serviceable as a backup will they try and redshirt Morris if they think he's a viable option down the road?

I know there's gentry, Malzone and O'Korn as well but possibly this would give them another QB option.

-Phillip

It is possible. Mid-career redshirts are rare but there's no rule against it, and if Speight is as good or better there's no reason to not give yourself the option.

That might be in Morris's best interest either way. He enrolled early, so it wouldn't be too hard for him to get a degree after this year a la Gardner, and then he'd have two to play somewhere if it didn't work out here. And if a guy a class behind you beats you out for the #2 spot, it's probably not going to work out.

Hockey expansion.

Hey Brian,

I was wondering if you could explain or if you even knew about any future BIG hockey expansion? I've started following BIG hockey and just wondered why Nebraska, Rutgers, and other schools do not have hockey programs if the BIG dishes our tens of millions of dollars each year. I am a hockey NOOB and just thought the BIG could be a legitimate conference if more teams (and even OSU) put any effort into making hockey decent. Thanks.

814 East U

The Big Ten shouldn't have to have more teams putting in effort to make hockey decent. Michigan and Minnesota are two of the sport's glamour programs, constantly stocked with NHL talent and near-perennial NCAA tournament participants. The have 15 national titles between them. Wisconsin has been more up and down recently but has six titles to their name. Michigan State was a national power until they hired Rick Comley and Tom Anastos back-to-back.

That's four of the six teams in the league clearly capable of being powers. Minnesota and Wisconsin are annually towards the top of the attendance leaderboard, and Michigan still more or less sells out Yost every year. Then you have Penn State, which is new but has an attractive rink and sold-out experience to offer kids. It's really only Ohio State—which plays in their inappropriately cavernous basketball arena to indifferent, sparse fans—that has an uphill battle towards respectability.

In fact, the second-most prominent complaint about the Big Ten's formation* was that it would spell the end of college hockey's charming mix of big time and small time competitors. Instead the Big Ten is in the same spot Atlantic Hockey is: vaguely hoping for a second bid one day. This is not how it was supposed to be.

But anyway that's not your question. There are two main hurdles to adding a hockey program: the arena and Title IX.

With limited exceptions, the correct size for a hockey arena is mid-four digits. Trying to shoehorn hockey into a basketball arena results in a tepid crowd and is a major drag on your program; also many arenas weren't built with a conversion like that in mind. Penn State's program was kickstarted by a 100 million dollar donation from Terry Pegula, the new Sabers owner. Similar seed money is just about required to boost any extant club hockey team to the varsity level.

Title IX adds a big hunk of expenses to your program. Hockey is popular enough that it can turn a small profit in the right situation. Penn State was 150k in the black in just its second year of existence; Michigan's program is also a net positive. If that was the end of it, all you'd have to do is pony up for the right arena and be done with it, but Title IX mandates you add a women's team of some variety. That team will have a revenue of approximately zero. It will not have zero expenses. With the BTN influx most schools could probably afford that expense, but it is something to consider.

One man's ranking of B10 schools by likelihood they would add hockey at some point:

  1. Iowa. Iowa is the epicenter of the USHL, the NCAA's primary feeder league. Iowa is financially stable and their fans have a demonstrated passion. Wrestling may be a small issue since it competes for attention.
  2. Nebraska. Iowa, except further west. Lincoln in fact already has a USHL team that plays in an arena of about 4k that has had good attendance. Nebraska's new basketball arena does have the capacity to put down ice, which has gone through a test drive. There has been sporadic chatter about adding a program that the AD has thus far shut down.
  3. Northwestern. Would need a large gift to create an arena. If that does happen it then makes a lot of sense, as there is a lot of local talent and high academic schools have proven their competitiveness over the years.
  4. Illinois. In the middle of nowhere, which is good for attendance. A basketball school, though, which raises questions about whether hockey will get requisite attention. One of the reasons Penn State has been so successful is that their fans are desperate for something other than pain after football season ceases. MSU has struggled with attention and attendance even when they were very good because basketball takes up so much headspace.
  5. Purdue. Neither Indiana team seems particularly likely to add hockey what with the state obsession with basketball.
  6. Indiana. See Purdue.
  7. Maryland. Financial basket case that slashed a ton of sports and only joined the Big Ten to mitigate the damage they'd done themselves.
  8. Rutgers. See Maryland, minus a fanbase.

You could see Iowa and Nebraska in the next ten years; anything after Illinois is highly unlikely.

*[#1 was the disruption of the Minnesota-centric WCHA and Michigan-centric CCHA, losses that are keenly felt by many long-time college hockey fans. I myself miss the old days more than I thought I would.]

Tom Osborne is watching your punting

Brian,

I went to the Sloan Sports Analytics conference last month and the college football panel was by far the most memorable. About six minutes in, Rachel Nichols asked a member of the playoff selection committee (Oliver Luck) what metrics were most important in helping to separate the top four teams from the rest. Here is the brunt of his answer transcribed:

“It’s difficult to say that there were any bits of data that everybody on the committee shared and agreed [upon] because that was really left up to [each of] us. I can tell you [that] Tom Osborne: great football coach, nobody is going to question Tom Osborne’s integrity, or his intelligence, or his football knowledge [and] he loved the kicking game . . . [H]e would spend a lot of time looking at all the data on the kicking game for all these teams in question. Others would look at other data."

My friend and I (almost) had to leave the room we started laughing so hard. Don’t let anyone tell you that adopting the spread punt is overblown. THAT'S HOW THEY CHOOSE BETWEEN PLAYOFF TEAMS.

Hail,

Travis

P.S.—Here is the link to the video (question starts at 06:40). You can watch it by starting a free trial and then cancel right after. I was hoping they’d upload it to the conference page by now but I couldn't wait any longer to share. Also, not nearly as worried about Penn State after listening to James Franklin spout nonsense for an hour.

I'm not entirely sure, Travis. "Go look at punting stats" sounds like a quintessential "go away" job.

The committee has Tom Osborne. Osborne spends most of his time rattling on about the Spanish-American War and declares every team after 1960 ineligible for the playoff. The committee says "Tom, you are a legend and we respect you immensely, and as you've said a thousand times in the last hour, punting is the most important part of the game. So have we got a project for you." Tom goes off and collates punting stats; committee swiftly chooses teams that don't punt.

This was titled "mailbag question" despite not being one.

Brian,

I hate Wisconsin basketball.

Sincerely,

Erik (Erik_in_Dayton)

I feel that sincerity, Erik.

Comments

UMQuadz05

March 17th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^

So, I spend a good deal of time badgering Brian about when PSU would get a hockey team, it happened, the B1G Hockey conference formed...and I hate it. 

I'd really like to see a big piece about that, maybe in the summer.  We all bitched about the CCHA, but some of my best memories from college are at Yost, either bludgeoning tiny teams to death (with no TV timeouts!), or in dogfights with Miami and other smaller schools.  Now we're just playing the same crappy group week in and week out.  What the hell happened?

Yostnut

March 17th, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^

Some of my best memories are from CCHA play at Yost too.

But the best thing about the CCHA was being able to follow the team on road trips to so many schools within a three hour driving radius from Ann Arbor, such as Bowling Green, Western, Ferris, and Notre Dame, in addition to current B1G schools OSU and FYS.  Lake State, Northern, and Miami weren't much farther.  And UIC (Illinois-Chicago) was always a great trip, while it lasted.  Plus, we had the CCHA playoffs at the Joe every year, and home playoff rounds as well.

I had so many fantastic road trips in the mid-90's, in the Hockeymobile (even though I was lucky I never crashed the damn thing with its bald tires on all those icy roads).  From 1994 to 1998, I probably went to about 80 percent of all Michigan Hockey games, home and away (including playoffs).  That was an awesome time for me. Of course, the team being so good back then made it a lot more fun.

It's different now.  It's a lot harder to drive to Madison or Minneapolis for a weekend (although at least hockey usually is on weekends, unlike hoops).  And there are no longer home playoffs, plus the conference playoffs are in Minnesota every other year.  The number of games you can get to every year with a three or four hour drive from A2 are much fewer.

Of course, now that I'm living in Chicago and having to watch most of the Michigan Hockey games on TV, I'm glad for the Big Ten and its much better TV coverage.  But yeah, the CCHA was something special, and I feel a loss as well.

BigTenBurrito

March 17th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^

A friend of mine who attended Alabama, recently sent a wedding invite to Coach Saban. Not surprisingly they returned the R.S.V.P with check next to "Regretfully Decline", but also included a signed photo.

Here's to hoping Anon gets something similar in response.

billsquared

March 17th, 2015 at 6:26 PM ^

C'mon, once our photographer saw him, he got as many shots with him as he could. Ernie was fantastic... and patient, as things got underway a bit later than originally scheduled, and the Tigers had a game that night. (View picture to see the full-size images... sorry about the flash, these are physical pictures and I don't have my scanner handy.)

ypsituckyboy

March 17th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^

I don't get the hate for Wisconsin basketball (except for Josh Gasser who plays dirty). I love Nigel Hayes' game. His game is like Draymond Green, which is fun to watch, except that he's not obnoxious like Green. Kaminsky has worked his butt off to become a NPOY level guy. Dekker stayed in school to get better and win a national title.

Sure, Bo Ryan will drive you nuts, but his teams play fundamentally fantastic ball, great defense, don't waste possessions, etc, etc. Plus, they actually stick around and play 4 years and aren't made up of one or two and dones. What's not to like?

Erik_in_Dayton

March 17th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^

This dated but still-relevant quote from a Big Ten coach captures a lot of the problem:

 

I don't really respect the way they play. Jordan Taylor likes to run and grab you, and then throw his head back and try to get a call. If you set a pick, they take a dive. They cheat the game. Everybody raves about this defensive juggernaut, but that's bull. They dribble the clock out and mug you out of the building.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/141242533.html

They are talented this year - I don't dispute that. But a lot of Wisconsin basketball, year in and year out, is based on working the officials rather than playing skillfully. Bo Ryan's central philosophy seems to be that a team should do everything it can get away with even if it violates the spirit (and often letter) of the rules and even if it sucks the joy out of the game. And then he'll hound the refs, his long-time enablers, as if his team is being robbed all game long.

I know everyone does these things to some extent, but it's usually not the core of a program. We can at least contrast Ryan with Beilein, who wants his team to win by playing cleanly and out-shooting, out-passing, out-picking, etc. their oppoents.

To be clear, I concede that Wisconsin has been a very good team and is again this year. I'm just explaining why they're a bucket of ocelot piss in terms of in-game ethics.

gwkrlghl

March 17th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^

It's a bit dull to just see the same old teams again. I miss playing the Michigan schools and Miami (NTM) and it was cool that it was novelty to ever face Wisconsin and Minnesota. I find B1G hockey to be a bit dull and lacking what makes college hockey so fun a lot of the time: a nice mix of some huge schools and a ton of who dats.

I remain sold that Nebraska is #1 and only a matter of time. They have a huge fanbase, are in USHL turf, have UNO as a nice non-B1G rival, and are not a basketball school. Plus they already have the arena! That's the hardest part of starting up.

Nebraska is like 90% there. Everyone else needs a check with a lot of zeros on it.

Yostbound and Down

March 17th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^

I don't know anyone who enjoys the Big Ten more than the CCHA. Have a couple Gopher friends who miss the WCHA, they hate that the rivalry with North Dakota is no more and I suspect also playing St. Cloud St, UMD etc like we miss playing Western and Ferris.

Hope the Big Ten can keep adding teams sooner rather than later. But as you said there needs to be a lot of dough paid out.

JonnyHintz

March 17th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

I like the potential of B1G hockey. I can see years where you have Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the top 10. Ohio State will never amount to much of anything. State needs to get a coach to be much of a consistent team, as they are nothing without Hildebrand. Penn State has potential, but I'm not seeing a top team.

I do miss the games against Ferris, LSSU, Northern, etc.

Could it be possible for the B1G hockey conference to go the lacrosse route and add an affiliate member or two? Possibly a Michigan Tech or a Dever type team or something. Add some parity and talent to the B1G. It seems like every game is David v. Goliath, especially with a down Wisconsin. While I enjoy beating up on Ohio State, winning 10-3 against a very bad team does little-to-nothing to help us.

Wolverine In Exile

March 17th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

I hate the execution so far with the shitty scheduling, poor TV coverage (WHY IS EVERY GAME NOT ON BTN LIVE-- YOU HAVE 3 ALTERNATE CHANNELS FROM FOOTBALL SEASON YOU MORONS!), and a bad playoff system. I also like to think that if Michigan had been good along with Wisconsin at least, the season would be a lot more entertaining.



That being said, I do miss the visits from those wacky Yoopers from Northern Michigan in their wanna-be North Stars jerseys and their roster full of casting cuts from "Slap Shot", as well as the bi-yearly "I'm sooo going to stay up this weekend and listen to the Alaska-Fairbanks series on the radio" talks I'd convince myself were going to happen. Not to mention that when we did play State, it seemed like a bigger game in the CCHA than in the B1G.

On the expansion issue, I think Nebraska would be a perfect fit for hockey in the B1G for all the reasons mentined above. I also think that Northwestern could / would totally support it from a fan perspective. I'd love as a Michigan fan to know that we could schedule a winter weekend trip to Chicago for the Northwestern series where we take the train in, stay downtown, and then go watch hockey at a Northwestern rink while going back downtown after the game. I'm always amazed that for all the *perceived* big money grads out of Northwestern, they haven't had that one notable alum who bankrolls some athletic campus improvements.

Bando Calrissian

March 18th, 2015 at 2:21 AM ^

We've been through this a lot with Northwestern. This is a school that doesn't even field track teams. Yes, this is a major conference school that doesn't even have a track on campus. Look at the shockingly small number of sports they support, and tell me they're going to somehow find the cash, commitment, and fanbase to start a hockey program. They've tapped their major donors for what they have, and don't seem committed to going beyond that.

Speaking of fan support... Students get free tickets to every sporting event. Guess what? They don't show up. Alumni don't show up. Everybody else who lives in Chicagoland went to one of the other 11 non-Rutgers or Maryland B1G schools. In other words, fanbase is nil for the usual revenue sports. The best they've got is women's lacrosse.

In other words, having spent a lot of time around Evanston, and having studied at Northwestern... There's no way hockey is ever a thing at NU. Not in a million years. Unless Scrooge McDuck flies in on the DuckTales jet and hands Morty Schapiro about ten sackfuls of money with "Northwestern Hockey" stenciled on the side.

WCHBlog

March 17th, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^

I just don't think Nebraska happens any time in the foreseeable future. 

Trev Alberts cut UNO's football and wrestling programs--for no real good reason--to help revitalize the walk-on programs at UNL. In return, UNO, got to be the "hockey school" in the state, complete with their own brand new on-campus arena which opens next year. 

Maybe the situation changes some day, but it will be a while.

JClay

March 17th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^

I would've been interested to hear Brian's thoughts on if there was any chance B1G Hockey adds an affiliate member like Johns Hopkins in lacrosse.

gwkrlghl

March 17th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^

but I'm not sure there's any incentive for them to do so at this point unless NoDak or Miami finds themselves unhappy for some reason (though I don't know why they would. I'd love to be in the NCHC right now). They have 6 teams and the auto-bid they want. I'd think an affiliate would have to be a slam dunk ala Johns Hopkins

JonnyHintz

March 17th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^

I'd take a mediocre team at this point. There's either the good or the very bad in B1G hockey. Adding a middle tier of teams would benefit the strength of the conference as a whole. Give the top teams a few more "quality" wins instead of going 4-0 against a Wisconsin team that ranks as the second worst in the nation.

Any team better than Ohio State or Wisconsin right now adds to the conference strength. Afterall, it's better to take 2 against the #30 team and 2 against the #54 team than it is to take 4 against the #54 team. Right now, Wisconsin having only 4 wins and playing each team 4 times is killing the conference. Same with Ohio State. Penn State's atrocious non-conference schedule is hurting as well.

I don't see why an addition has to be a top team. We have a clear elite tier of teams in the B1G. What we are missing is that second tier. It seems the teams are either pretty good or very bad, with no in between.

JeepinBen

March 17th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^

What may have made more sense was to have a year-long Tournament for the B1G. Have a round robin outside of WCHA/CCHA play where each team hosts non-conf games. Could have declared a B1G champion while not blowing up the other leagues.

Wolverine In Exile

March 17th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^

of the Thanksgiving weekend tournaments Wisconsin or Minnesota would host with other B1G teams. When it was just Wis, Minn, Mich, Mich St, and OSU, it would be 4 out of the 5 in this mini-tournament (Ohio St usually wasn't invited unless someone wanted to dish out a good ass kicking). If the B1G didn't go all in on a new conference, I would've liked a 2-3 weekend tournament like the Bean Pot in Boston for just B1G teams and then you have a "Renfrew Cup" or some nonesense that becomes the traveling trophy for B1G Hockey. You could broadcast it on BTN and rotate the sites that host weekend 1 and weekend 2 between MSP and Detroit.

Reader71

March 17th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^

If Rudock comes and starts, and if Shane is beaten out for the backup job by Speight, then it makes no sense to redshirt him.

Let him play out his eligibility and move on. Speight will have already moved ahead of him, so starting is unlikely. And whatever he makes up for as a depth piece would be negligible since O'Korn would fill the 'experienced backup' role and we will have both Malzone and Gentry also eligible to play.

This is why mid-career redshirts are so rare -- if you aren't good enough as an upperclassman to be on the two-deep and thus not redshirting, the coaches would probably prefer to let you finish up so they can use your scholarship for the next big recruit.

Brodie

March 17th, 2015 at 6:05 PM ^

yeah, the only thing a mid-career redshirt does for Shane is give him time to graduate so he can play FBS ball the next season instead of playing in FCS right away. His Michigan career is likely over no matter what happens... if he's really third on the depth chart right now AND we get Rudock, I'd be shocked if he even makes it to fall practice at Michigan.

1408

March 17th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^

Why not let Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota-Duluth join the B1G?  We already have small schools for lax only, why not do this too?  At least these schools are affiliated with current B1G members.

Wolverine In Exile

March 17th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

UNO fits better in a grouping with those smaller Colorado schools anyway, and there is no way in bloody hell that Big Minnesota lets UMD in. If we're going to let in adjunct members for hockey, I'd rather it be for new programs than poaching existing ones.

Wolverine In Exile

March 17th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^

But this year, I can not. Wisconsin is a fun team to watch, and you know it must be killing Bo Ryan inside to have a team that talented play fun basketball and not have to bludgeon teams to death with a final score in the 40's to 50's. Next year when Wisconsin returns to traditional Wisconsin basketball, maybe my ire for them will grow, but this year, I want Kaminsky to win the whole.damn. thing. (Transitive Polish Pride Property) Beat Kentucky too while they're at it.

State will always be on the hate list because of Izzo theatrics.

BuckNekked

March 17th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

Everything great and unique about college sports must be destroyed in the name of money. I sob my nights away over the loss of the CCHA. B1G hockey is an abomination. Id laugh at the power brokers whose efforts to create it failed so spectacularly if it wasnt for the children.

tylawyer

March 17th, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^

This may have been mentioned elsewhere and so I apologize in advance for stealing anyone's thunder, but has there been any consideration to changing the name of this feature to "MAILBAUGH"? I'll show myself out.

MillerTime

March 17th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^

I got married this past fall (bye week, don't worry) and invited Hoke and his wife, making a personal appeal in case they'd be out on the east coast recruiting.  They, of course, declined (didn't even sign the reply card, much less send a picture or anything), but we got a smarmy note in return from the athletic development department observing "how much Michigan athletics mean to [us]" and asking for a donation.  Dave Brandon, everyone.

An aside - we chose our venue the year before we got married and went to do a tour on Michigan's bye week that year (Fall 2013).  To my absolute delight, the couple getting married at that space the evening we toured was another Michigan couple... who chose to get married on a Michigan bye week.  If you're reading this and got married at the Bryant Park Grill in NYC in October 2013, congratulations and salute!

MillerTime

March 17th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^

Very possible, though it was addressed to Coach Hoke.  I could see it going to the football office, but someone had to hand it from there to the development department.  I was pretty disappointed at the begging for money.  

And yes, the Bacon book will be riveting, I'm sure.  Three & Out was just depressing - I'm sure the tone of the new one will be a bit more optimistic given the post-Brandon developments.  

jmblue

March 17th, 2015 at 3:09 PM ^

Brian, you missed a golden opportunity to drop a Troy McClure reference ("That's not a question, professor, but we'll let the viewers decide") on the last one...