[Aaron Bills via Twitter]

The Last 2022 Recruiting Take Comment Count

Seth July 27th, 2022 at 11:05 AM

Previously: Last year's summary.

The profiles: S Damani Dent, S/Nk Zeke Berry, S/HSP Keon Sabb, CB Myles Pollard, CB/Nk Kody Jones, CB Will Johnson, LB Deuce Spurlock, LB Jimmy Rolder, DE/LB Micah Pollard, DE Derrick Moore, DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, DT Cam Goode, T Andrew Gentry, T/G Connor Jones, G Alessandro Lorenzetti, C Olu Oluwatimi, TE Marlin Klein, TE Colston Loveland, WR Amorion Walker, WR Tyler Morris, WR Darrius Clemons, RB CJ Stokes, QB Jayden Denegal, QB/ATH Alex Orji.

We have made it through the annual summer project. It's my second time doing this, and this year it checked in at 82,596 words, including two transfers. I compared one guy to a cathedral, another guy to a Billie Eilish song, linked to double-digit articles referring to one guy as an extinct Ice Age mammal, and managed to say the words "Rabun Gap-Nacoochee" thirteen times without making things awkward. Let's wrap!

IT IS AN A-MINUS CLASS

Turns out beating Ohio State, winning the conference, and adding a handful of high 4-stars around Early Signing Day is a big deal. That was the difference between this class and the two that preceded it. Look at all the greeeeeeeen!

As is often the case, we're higher on this class than the industry.  A positional rundown:

  • QB: C+. They're in the 5-star shadow. Both guys are long-term projects; barring a Tom Brady unicorn, only one has a very high ceiling.
  • RB: C-. Hart banked on his scouting, how do you whiff on a thunderback after Haskins?
  • WR: A. Two Nicos and a Ronnie Bell.
  • TE: A-. Loveland is that star they barely missed in previous cycles, Klein is FAST.
  • OL: C- or B- if you include Oluwatimi. Quickly dropped by top targets, Warinner guys. Lucky to get Lorenzetti & Gentry late.
  • DT: B+. Graham and Grant would be big gets in any year. Goode should replace Jeter.
  • DE: B. Moore is the blue chip we're not excited enough about. Didn't get a real edge-bender.
  • LB: B+. Rolder falling in their laps salvaged the class, Spurlock has high upside.
  • S: A+. Berry+Sabb+Dent would be a good class at any program.
  • CB: A. Needed, got.
  • SP: n/a

Late flips due to Harbaugh's program restabilizing itself ameliorated issues that plagued them over the course of the cycle. Getting McCarthy, Edwards, and a pile of promising OL in 2021 make up for (and likely contributed to) weaknesses in this class. But the pressure is on to address those positions in 2023, hence the freakout over Dante Moore (which was *NOT* just an NIL issue). They also need impact players immediately at linebacker and edge, which they failed to get in this class.

The defensive back class is special—I compared them to Marlin Jackson, Tripp Welborne, Rod Moore, Chidobe Awuzie, and Jeremy Clark, and that Rod Moore comp could have easily been Jabrill Peppers. The receiver crop is also incredible. Tyler Morris would have been a top-100 type if not for his injury, which shouldn't affect his career, Amorion Walker was a massive win over Notre Dame, and Clemons was a national prospect. Add the early returns on Andrel Anthony and Michigan is going to be set there for a while.

[After THE JUMP: What we learned, superlatives, sleeper of the class, etc.]

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STABILITY HELPS.

Starting the cycle with two disheartening blowouts to Ohio State then the 2-4 season meant everything was going to be harder this time. Since forever, Michigan classes have been backfilled (or filled) by guys willing to come to Michigan for the Michiganness of it. You can count the recruitments in this class where they didn't have to go above and beyond on one hand: Connor Jones (as much a Michigan fan as I am), Jayden Denegal (everyone else lost interest), Micah Pollard (Braylon's nephew, dad played with Harbaugh), Alessandro Lorenzetti (dreamed of playing Big Ten football!) and Jimmy Rolder, who blew up in Chicago too late for Wisconsin to say hey!

Michigan's turnaround did make a big difference at Early Signing Day. Darrius Clemons was the only guy who said so outright, but the Big Ten Championship run was the reason Harbaugh's program looked like a solid alternative for some elites when Oklahoma (Derrick Moore) and Clemson (Keon Sabb), lost their head coach and coordinator, respectively. Alex Orji (Virginia Tech), Olu Oluwatimi and Andrew Gentry (Virginia), and Cam Goode (UCF) also broke free only due to coaching changes. Program stability made a difference in Michigan managing to find and secure late risers like Colston Loveland, Mason Graham, and Jimmy Rolder, and win some down-to-the wire head-to-head battles for Amorion Walker and Kody Jones.

WILL JOHNSON WAS THE JJ MCCARTHY OF THE CLASS.

It cannot be overstated what a difference Deon's son made. Though a legacy, Johnson was more a scion of Detroit's 7v7 scene than Michigan, and Ohio State and USC were throwing everything they had at him. Throughout Johnson was adamant that Michigan was an elite destination. Traveling around the country for camps and 7v7s, he made this case in person to a lot of the top recruits. At one point Will even convinced Marquis Groves-Killebrew, Georgia's elite CB commit, to take a Michigan visit. It didn't come off, but I've a hunch that cost some Georgia booster quite a pretty penny to get canceled.

STILL AN OTHER SPORTS SCHOOL!

Basketball: Keon Sabb, Will Johnson, Amorion Walker, and Colston Loveland. Track & Field: Loveland, Zeke Berry, Tyler Morris, and Kenneth Grant. Baseball: Grant, Jimmy Rolder, and Deuce Spurlock. Soccer: Spurlock and Marlin Klein. It's a theme.

GRADING THE STAFF

In order of contributions:

Ron Bellamy (safeties->WRs): A++. Ron had a major hand in both of position groups (safety/receiver) that they knocked out of the park, and deserves a standing ovation from this fanbase for the work he did to bring it together. He deserves most of the credit for landing Keon Sabb and Darrius Clemons, and all of it for winning Amorion Walker over Notre Dame, which started operating like an SEC school at the end of this cycle.

Courtney Morgan (dir. of player personnel->left for Washington): A++. The other hero of Michigan's recruiting efforts was another former player from my time. It was Morgan who put them in touch with Zeke Berry, Mason Graham, and Jayden Denegal, and made them aware of Damani Dent before it was too late. I wouldn't be surprised to learn Morgan also played a major role in a number of these important recruitments, like Derrick Moore's. Michigan would have had Kevonte Henry in the class, and likely Josh Conerly as well, if Morgan hadn't left. For my money, letting Court walk out the door is the biggest blunder of Jim Harbaugh's football career.

Mo Linguist (CBs/co-DC->Buffalo HC): Incomplete. He was only here a few months, but in that time he put together this cornerback class—Will Johnson was thinking of going to Ohio State remember—and connected them to Alex Orji.

Steve Clinkscale (CBs->CBs/co-DC): A. Kudos for matching Linguist. Clink had the unenviable job of holding together guys who committed to a different coach, and accomplished it. Literally nobody else would have managed to hold onto Myles Pollard. Keeping Kody Jones was quietly one of the big coups of the class. Will Johnson never wavered despite plenty of overtures.

Jay Harbaugh (TEs->safeties): A. Loveland was a masterpiece of recruiting, and Jay deserves a lot of credit for the international connections that got them Marlin Klein early, and are still bearing fruit. Quietly been one of the best assets of the Harbaugh era.

Josh Gattis (OC/WRs->Miami(YTM)): B. Got them Tyler Morris, missed on Dillon Bell (got Georgia'd) and Kaleb Brown (got OSU'd), but took the copilot's seat as Bellamy reeled in Clemons and Walker. There was some floundering here—he reopened the board mid-cycle then tried and failed to pull away a Kentucky legacy—and he needed help, but his process made sense and he was an overall asset.

Shawn Nua (DL->left for USC): B. Missed out on Deone Walker by targeting him too late, wasted a lot of time with Walter Nolen (was always going after money) and Justice Finkley (Michigan measured and said he can't play outside). But he got us Ken Grant, and that's mammoth, and was also an asset in recruitments outside of DL.

Matt Weiss (QBs->QBs/co-OC): C. Tough spot when McNamara and McCarthy both have 4 years of eligibility remaining and he doesn't have a record outside of the NFL. Ended up at the back of the line in the QB dominoes that fell not how we wanted, then had to remake his board, at which point they settled on Denegal. But Weiss did good work to turn Orji at the end.

Mike Hart: C-. The only disappointing Carr guy and I hate because of my love for him as a player. Jay Harbaugh handed over the position with immediate carries to offer (they knew Haskins was graduating) and the groundwork laid with several elite prospects. Michigan wasn't even 2nd place for any of them, with two of those guys signing with UNC. Maybe Hart sees more and Stokes is Mark Hart 2.0, but coming off classes of Charbonnet, Corum, and Edwards, this was a comedown, and it didn't seem like Hart contributed much beyond his position.

Sherrone Moore (OL/co-OC): D. This isn't his fault. Once one of their best recruiters, Moore took a big step back after being handed two full-time jobs in coaching the OL (basically a coordinator position itself) and co-OC. The results were on the field—Michigan had the best OL in the country without any stars on it—but suffered here. Lorenzetti fell in their laps, the Harbaughs and Nua were instrumental in getting Gentry, and Connor Jones was a holdover from Warinner. Moore began the cycle shooting for 5-stars but never got any traction.

Mike Macdonald (DC) and George Helow (LBs): F. They're going together because I'm not sure who was in charge of what (and what was analyst Ryan Osborn's). Of the guys they got at LB and Edge, Derrick Moore was a Biff Poggi connection, Micah Pollard a legacy, Jimmy Rolder a Chicago late bloomer who fell in their laps, and Deuce Spurlock almost drifted away before Bellamy stepped in. That's a lot of luck and scrambling with very little contribution from two full defensive staff members.

Then you see whom they didn't get Kevonte Henry was only in as long as Morgan was around. Ethan Burke was pilfered by Texas the morning of ESD. Mario Eugenio....might have been dropped. Michigan chased Joshua Josephs, Beau Atkinson, Lander Barton, Sebastian Cheeks, and Jeremy Patton with nothing to show for it, whiffed entirely on Josh Burnham, watched scouting finds Anto Saka and Joseph Adedire slip away in the process, and took a commitment from a Belleville kid nobody thought they planned to sign.

By all accounts Helow is a recruiting-oriented dude, but when we go over the list of Helow-adjacent targets who went elsewhere (including Branden Jennings in the last class and Raylen Wilson in the next one), there appears to be an issue getting guys to the finish line.

THOSE WHO GOT AWAY

This was a tough cycle because of staff changes on either end of the season, and a weird one because of Michigan's dramatic turnaround in between. As a result we have a lot more names to remember this year than any I can remember. Breaking them up by preferred rationalization:

OKAY, THAT'S A BETTER OFFER: Michigan couldn't turn elite 5* Domani Jackson from USC despite much trying. WR/TE: Kaleb Brown (OSU) was the third of the Chicago Four (with JJ McCarthy, AJ Henning, Tyler Morris), an AJ Henning-like slot who turned Ohio State after the 2-4 season. WR/RB Dillon Bell was an early Michigan find but Georgia came along, ditto TE Oscar Delp and—changing "Georgia" to "Bama"—OT Riley Quick. Elite Walter Nolen (A&M) convinced Michigan they were really in it until they realized his parents were just out to sell their kid to the highest bidder. Michigan lost TX 4* Ethan Burke to a late offer of $Texas from hometown Texas. 5* George Fitzpatrick (OSU) was a Sherrone Moore fave from the Colorado pipeline but blew up into a national elite. TCU convinced underrated D'Arco Perkins-McAllister to reclassify to 2021.

THE CONNECTION LEFT: In addition to the decommitment of their best edge prospect in Kevonte Henry (Oklahoma), Michigan lost its best shot at 5* OT Josh Conerly (Oregon) when Courtney Morgan left. AZ 4* Anthony Lucas (A&M), an ideal anchor, blew up into a national prospect just as Don Brown was fired. The door opened on MI 4* Joshua Burnham (ND) when Brian Jean-Marie walked out, and Marcus Freeman walked through it.

THE OTHER TEAM OUT-RECRUITED US: Jean-Marie, now at Tennessee, won a tense battle for GA 3* Joshua Josephs, Macdonald and Helow's top edge prospect, which stung. Frankly these guys got their asses handed to them up and down the trail: It started with Burnham, but that should have pushed Chicago's Sebastian Cheeks to Michigan; UNC jumped ahead and won it. Baylor somehow snuck in and won TX 3* Jeremy Patton when we were convinced it was a Michigan-Texas fight. Outside of Helow/Macdonald's issues, FL 4* Jordan Phillips nearly committed (I wrote a Hello) but Tennessee did a great job to hold that off and turn him around.

NO YOU CAN'T HAVE OUR LEGACY: The coaches tried a new tactic this year: guys most schools stay away from because it's so obvious what school they're going to. LB Lander Barton was pursued with Devin Bush Jr.-like fury, and ultimately rose to a 5*, but couldn't be pried out of Utah. NC 3* Beau Atkinson was intrigued by the (fair) comparison to Aidan Hutchinson, but UNC managed to keep him home. WR Dane Key was a late push but had deep Kentucky ties. We did win CJ Stokes so the strategy went 1/4.

THE NCAA'S DUMBEST RULE: French DT Jeffrey M'ba, the nation's top JuCo, had his academics in order and was all set to announce, but because he played at St. Frances for Biff Poggi, who was on staff again, that put the kibosh on it.

DIDN'T TRY HARD ENOUGH: The usual disclaimer: to say Michigan didn't put in enough effort doesn't mean they could have landed the guy if they had, nor that they didn't want the player. This is especially true for West Bloomfield ATH Dillon Tatum, who grew up rooting for MSU, played for Ron Bellamy, and has the talent to be an NFL prospect, so it would have been nice to keep him from a rival. Mel Tucker recruited Tatum personally while Michigan had considered Kody Jones and Zeke Berry higher priorities; it's fair to say both teams got what they wanted. The other controversial one was AL 4* Justice Finkley (Texas), who was all set to commit when he came up for the BBQ, but measured just 6'0" and was therefore no longer a fit for OLB. UT 4* QB Nate Johnson was a Denardian guy Weiss wanted badly, but not badly enough to use a scholarship on Johnson's brother like Utah did. Justyn Martin was a soft UCLA commit they were focused on turning until Orji shook loose. OL/DL Deone Walker (UK) was a Cass Tech guy Michigan was cool on until he lost weight and then tried to play catch-up; I think the prospect was always less interested than the family. OH 4* Derrick Shepard was a guy they could have had if they kept on him all cycle but Cincy did a great job turning him around between pushes.

DECOMMITS: Mario Eugenio (Cincy) was allowed to slip away without much fuss, possibly because like Finkley they thought he would have to be moved inside. DT Alex VanSumeren (MSU) was your typical high-floor early high-star who dropped in the rankings as the rest of his class was discovered. Michigan didn't put up a fight over him or brother Ben going to East Lansing (and both brothers came close to transferring from MSU in late spring). Alex is pretty much fully formed, so my guess at the story there is playing time is important to both brothers, and Michigan didn't think the younger would play right away.

The rest were to varying degrees the standard "this is where you get off the bus" stories. WR Tay'shawn Trent was a take if his transcripts were in order but his school screwed up COVID, and Trent wasn't a good enough prospect to cost them a precious "trust us" academic counter. WR/S Taylor Groves jumped in the class when Linguist was hired and out of it when he left. LB Tyler Martin was the first commit of the class but a Don Brown guy all the way. River Rouge DT Davonte Miles (BGSU) didn't progress enough to stay in the class after committing early. Andre Seldon's half-brother Myles Rowser somehow remained a 4-star in the composite, but not to any FBS schools, and ended up at FCS Campbell (the Fighting Camels!). His Belleville teammate LB Aaron Alexander was this year's Nick Patterson Memorial "who wants to claim a Michigan decommit?" commit; they ultimately found him a home with Don Brown at UMass.

SAD JOSHII: Winning guys at the top of their board left them out for guys who'd have been takes in other classes. DT Hayden Schwartz (Nebraska) was a Don Brown-style guy the new staff backed off, Robby Harrison (ASU) a similar story. Their success with other safeties also meant they didn't push so hard for Austin Brown (Wisconsin) or Ja'Kobi Albert (Auburn), and allowed backup options Jeremiah Caldwell (UK) from Belleville and Jaden Mangham (MSU) from my alma mater to go elsewhere. The story was the same at CB, where Stribling-esque Clinkscale targets Andre Stewart (UK), Jaylen Lewis (Arkansas), and James Monds (IU) were left on the hook.

Early local 4* LBs Michael Williams (USF) and Jordan Cannon (Maryland) were ignored after their junior years.

I LEARNED YOUR NAME: Michigan jumped into a lot of recruitments too late to change anything. We probably still lose Gavin Sawchuk to Oklahoma if Jay isn't moved to TEs but that ended that. Fellow RBs George Pettaway, Nicholas Singleton, and Omarion Hampton lost interest in Michigan quickly after Hart took over; two of them committed to UNC. Thunderback Quinshon Judkins was discovered too late in the cycle, by which time Ole Miss had done enough to keep him.

Bellamy aimed high but LSU got 5* Jacoby Matthews, Alabama made up the week's head start Michigan had on GA 4* Jake Pope, and some Linguist connections came and went, the most notable being Austin Ausberry, a prospect I personally thought was awesome (YMRMFSPA Dax Hill), who ended up at Auburn. At CB they were too late to convert on their connection to Benjamin Morrison, a supreme athlete Notre Dame won. Courtney Morgan got Michigan in on teammates Jahlil Florence and Jahlil Tucker but both decided to stay out West.

STOCK UP GENTLEMEN

These are the guys I got more enthusiastic about as I scouted them. It’s not the same as “Sleeper”—it’s how much my opinion changed from what I thought I would find when I went in versus when I came out.

  • WR Amorion Walker. The way this went down with two of the best scouting programs in the country battling like the guy's a five-star was the first clue. He's definitely skinny, but he's also a freak, and when he fills out watch out.
  • S/Nk Zeke Berry. Okay Steve Lorenz, I'm listening. Now you listen…to me shout silly things from the stands when Berry makes plays that mere humans shouldn't.
  • WR Tyler Morris. I fell in love when I did the Hello post and fell in love all over again. The injury is the only reason he's not a top-50 prospect.
  • OL Alessandro Lorenzetti. There wasn't much to go on, but that's because nobody watched the senior film. He's even got good pad level!
  • S Damani Dent. I was already on board when he committed, but I figured there would be a but.. There was no but. He's one of the best safety prospects in the country.
  • DT Mason Graham. As we all saw in spring, he's a baaaaaaaaad guy (duh!).

STOCK DOWN GENTLEMEN

These are the guys I was hoping I would come out higher on.

  • LB/Edge Micah Pollard. He's family, but he doesn't have the edge-bending to be a great rusher outside nor is he much of a linebacker prospect.
  • S Keon Sabb. probably best used as a hybrid linebacker, not a do-everything 5-star safety.
  • QB Jayden Denegal. I figured Michigan saw something nobody else could. If they did, it's buried as well as it was for Tom Brady.
  • OT Andrew Gentry. Much more of a pile-mover than an athletic blindside protector. Don't get me wrong, we need those. But he's more of a bottom of the draft type (Stueber) than a top of the draft type (Wirfs), and that's before you figure he's been out of football for two years.
  • RB CJ Stokes. I bought the Mike Hart hype when he was hired and figured I would get to see things that the scouting services usually miss. But what I see here is a pretty middle of the road Big Ten RB.
  • CB Myles Pollard. Don't criticize the speed, don't criticize the speed, don't cr—dammit they knocked his speed.
  • OL Connor Jones. No change since his commitment, seems like a reach for a Go Blue guy when they couldn't get bodies into the class.

BOOM OR BUST

He might be awesome, but who knows because there's a long way to go.

  • QB/ATH Alex Orji. I thought I would come in at meh or lower. It's not that he's naturally inaccurate; it's that his center sucked and he was constantly throwing on the run. And oh can he run!
  • LB Deuce Spurlock. Other than the whole "needs to learn to play linebacker thing" this is a steal. I went in fully expecting to say "Devin Gil" not find a NHG-level brainiac who moves like Junior Colson.
  • DT Kenneth Grant. All the Mammoth talk made it seem like he's a standard planet. He's actually a freak with Johnathan Hankins upside, but a lot further from the field than initially advertised.
  • TE Marlin Klein. The way we all stopped talking about him for 2 years, and his advanced age relative to his class, made me worried. He's a long way from development, but you can't coach this kind of speed.

MOST LIKELY TO HELP IMMEDIATELY

Not counting transfers because that's unfair…

  1. Will Johnson, duh. Give it a few games and he should be a major part of the cornerback rotation.
  2. Zeke Berry. Could be starting at nickel or SS by mid-season, probably in the rotation by the end.
  3. Derrick Moore. Nobody else on the edge depth chart has Moore's athleticism, or anything like it.
  4. Mason Graham. So much for a redshirt. Like Berry, jump from high Cali competition to B10 isn't so huge.
  5. Keon Sabb. Could be a factor at safety, more likely he's a Michael Barrett understudy.

BEST PRESENT TO UNWRAP IN A FEW YEARS

Colston Loveland. There's already talk of him playing this year but look at the TE depth, and he's coming from Idaho after playing receiver until very recently. He's going to be a great one, but he's going to need at least a couple of years in the system first.

SLEEPER OF THE YEAR

Damani Dent. I was hesitant to declare it because he was literally the first writeup of the class, but you can't leave a guy this good ranked that low and expect it to be anybody else. He's not quite Dax Hill, but he's a 4th round version of Dax Hill, and then you add the intangibles that everybody underrates and this one's another slam dunk.

BUT ALSO:

Amorion Walker. But there really should be two for this class, especially when you consider how low Walker's ranked: #101 receiver to 24/7, #34 ATH to Rivals, #88 WR to On3. ESPN has him a 4-star but only because they're contractually obligated to pretend SEC states have more talent. That Notre Dame was going full SEC to try to prevent the flip makes it all the sweeter.

Ruling: If you're grading me in the future, each guy is worth half a point.

AND WE SHOULD ALSO MENTION:

Alessandro Lorenzetti. Did you hear the one about the offensive lineman from Quebec who went to school in Connecticut during a pandemic that canceled his junior year before he got injured, got elite offers after private workouts not open to the public, and committed to a school within weeks of that happening with no drama after? Ol' Rip Van Winkle, that's what.

And with that I'm taking a short summer break to complete HTTV. Sorry that's a mess this year. Last time that happens.

Comments

TrueBlue2003

July 28th, 2022 at 12:17 AM ^

The difference is that in the NFL the "cost" of a player is his share of the salary cap.  So by paying largely interchangeable RBs less, you can spend more elsewhere.

In college football, there is no salary cap so the "cost" of a player is simply his spot on the 85.  So you don't gain anything by signing a lower valued RB.  If you're going to use a scholarship on him, you want him to be as good as possible.

I think your point about the 5* misses is a different one altogether: just that it's hard to predict how well RBs will translate from HS to college, but also that Michigan has probably just been really unlucky with their highly ranked guys.

ALL THAT SAID, there sort of is a salary cap now if you consider the pool of NIL money your cap.  Michigan would be wise not to spend too much of it on RBs and spend a high proportion of it on linemen (both OL and DL), even though they aren't as "popular" as the guys that get the stats in the boxscore.

El Jeffe

July 28th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^

Interesting points, all. I hadn't been thinking about it at all in the cap way you mentioned, but that is an important (and related point)--given that RBs are kind of interchangeable it not only makes sense to spend less on one but economic theory would predict a downward pressure on price because of the availability of relatively equivalent substitutes (see: traditional centers in the NBA--if they aren't Embiid or Jokich you shouldn't pay much for one).

As you noted, I was thinking more about the lack of predictability and whether that means we as a fan base should rend fewer of our garments over Stokes, for example, versus some higher-ranked candidates.

los barcos

July 27th, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^

Can someone who is smarter than me explain this Seth quote?  Did I miss something specific or just our general run of the mill conjencture?

hence the freakout over Dante Moore (which was *NOT* just an NIL issue)

Stanley Hudson

July 27th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^

I think what Seth is saying is that many people are blaming the Dante Moore to Oregon "situation" on NIL. According to may insider types it wasn't just about NIL/Money. Apparently part of the issue was lack of attention to his recruitment from Harbaugh and concerns over Jim's commitment to the program- A big part of Dante's recruitment occurred when Jim was looking at NFL Jobs. 

Dante was a Detroit kid that trained with Devin Gardner. Even with that, Michigan wasn't his "dream school". He wanted to be recruited hard. And many insiders are saying Michigan and specifically Jim- didn't do enough to show their interest. 

Please do not shoot the messenger, just sharing what I have read from others. 

TrueBlue2003

July 28th, 2022 at 12:22 AM ^

Wasn't Michigan recruiting him since like 7th grade? Harbaugh's NFL flirtation was like a tiny fraction of time Michigan recruited Moore. 

Didn't he admit to "being up there a bunch of times" not long ago?  And didn't Michigan literally only recruit him in the entire class?

This seems like a surprising take from their camp.

GoBlue96

July 27th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^

Great summary.  Honestly this is all I need for recruiting updates anymore.  Just tell me about the new class right before the season starts then look back it in 4 years.

bronxblue

July 27th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^

Good stuff.  

I wanted to be proven wrong about Hart as a recruiter but he was an okay recruiter at IU (usually the 4th/5th highest-rated recruiter for the Hoosiers) and that seems to be the case here at UM.  Jaybaugh always got a lot of unearned scorn but in particular people underrated his recruiting.  I hope it improves but I'm not super-optimistic he'll bring in a ton of top-rated guys.  I still want to see how he looks coaching new guys (Corum and particularly Haskins were already somewhat known quantities), but he at least showed some ability last year.

I'll give Moore a break because of all the changes to his job; hopefully we can pick it up this year.  Helow feels like a disappointment but he's also picked up a couple of good guys this cycle already so that feels like it's trending up.  And I do think blaming Jennings not signing on his inability to close is unfair; Jennings has already bolted from Maryland and feels like a guy who is going to wander a bit (and might not have been happy at UM anyway).

Losing Morgan was big.  I don't quite know what Harbaugh could have done to keep him if he wanted to leave; I've read a couple of different comments on his move so it ranges from "UM could have paid him more/given him more of a role on the field and he'd stay" to "he wanted to leave for reasons unrelated to the role".  But it does suck to lose him.

bronxblue

July 28th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^

Moore was the TE coach in 2020 and then went to the OL along with co-OC in 2021 (which was when most of this class was being pieced together), so he definitely had additional responsibilities and a new part of the team to focus on that may have affected his recruiting a bit.  And he also was instrumental (I assume) in bring in Victor Oluwatimi as a transfer at center, so I also think this analysis might have been a bit harsh on him.  It's not an excuse but Moore was one of the best recruiters in the country (#12 in 2020 and #7 in 2021) and so yeah, I don't think he completely forgot how to recruit for 2022.  I do think 2-4 didn't help but also he had a lot of additional responsibilities and perhaps struggled a bit with the time management.  My guess is he'll be better this year.

HAIL 2 VICTORS

July 27th, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^

Seth appreciate the summary!

 

Coming from ND and long time Midwest guy I had high hopes for Mike Elston to make an immediate recruiting impact. 

Can you provide insight as to how he is doing in this regard to date?

 

 

 

 

so bored at work

July 27th, 2022 at 3:45 PM ^

Seth, caricature Mason Graham looks unsettlingly like me with bushy eyebrows (and minus...a few years). How does this affect your projections for his freshman season?

OldSchoolWolverine

July 27th, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^

This information Seth presented is astounding and greatly informative, and I loved reading it, the inside stories of recruiting....  Is this all insider information, or subjective? 

By the way, that Lansing article only mentioned Ben Van Sumeren in portal, not the younger brother.

MacDonald and Helow getting an F was eye opening... so MacDonald really didn't like recruiting, so maybe we are better off with Minter.  Strange, I thought Harbaugh hired Helow because of his recruiting prowess, too.

 

iMBlue2

July 27th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^

Thanks Seth…I look forward to these.

and I enjoy all the content you put out during the year. I’ve coached at a high school level and the analysis you put out definitely has an eye towards scouting and coaching. When I read you articles I find myself thinking about how the games and plays are structured. 

uminks

July 27th, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^

If Harbaugh can win the B1G this season and make the playoffs again. 2024 will be a huge recruiting haul. Tempering my expectations, 2 losses and a NY6 bowl win will mean a good class as well in 2024..

denverblue

July 27th, 2022 at 10:20 PM ^

Curious Seth, was thinking about your class ranking, and was wondering your methodology when it came to ranking the class overall and by position/ the degree to which you use/weigh objective/subjective quantitative/qualitative and how all that parses out and what have you? And would any positions have extra weight placed on them (QB, for example) or the number of players at a position, vs. meeting the "need" at said position. All the things!

To use a mathematical scale we're all familiar with when it comes to using letter grades, thought it would be interesting to quantify the class GPA, as it were. Rounded for mathematical accuracy, based on my understanding of a 4.0 scale, open to feedback on the maths.

  • QB: C+ = 2.33
  • RB: C- = 1.67
  • WR: A = 4.0
  • TE: A- = 3.67
  • OL: C- or B- (w/Oluwatimi) = 1.67 or 2.67
  • DT: B+ = 3.33
  • DE: B = 3.0
  • LB: B+ = 3.33
  • S: A+ = 4.33
  • CB: A = 4.0
  • SP: n/a = n/a
  • Avg = 33.33/10 positions = 3.33 (w/ Oluwatimi, 3.23 w/out), which by this scale would equal a B+ (assuming that all positions are equally weighted and not accounting for volume/numbers at the position)

So pretty much in line with Seth's A-. We can nitpick around the edges on this class, but by so many measures (#9 on the 24/7 composite being a nice snapshot of the thing), pretty darn good considering the circumstances. My impression of the class is a stock up compared with the feelingsball of the recruiting season.

Don

July 28th, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^

"RB: C-. Hart banked on his scouting, how do you whiff on a thunderback after Haskins?...Michigan wasn't even 2nd place for any of them... this was a comedown, and it didn't seem like Hart contributed much beyond his position."

How times change. It seems like it was just a couple of months ago that numerous people here were celebrating Hart's alleged recruiting prowess and confidently saying he should be Michigan's next HC.