Hoops Preview: Rutgers, Big Ten Tournament Second Round
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #38 Michigan (17-14, 11-9 Big Ten) vs #42 Rutgers (18-13, 10-10 Big Ten) |
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|---|---|---|
| WHERE | Phil Klein Insurance Group Center Chicago, IL |
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| WHEN | Noon Thursday | |
| THE LINE | Kenpom: M -1 Torvik: M -1 |
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| TELEVISION | BTN |
THE OVERVIEW
Well. Here we are again. Michigan has a path to the tourney if they can win this game and then beat Purdue, per the algorithms. I kind of think it would take another win after that since virtually everything about Michigan's profile screams PLEASE JUST LET ME DIE, but here we are. There is basketball to be had, and by God we will have it.
Michigan's opening game in the BTT is against Rutgers, which Michigan beat 58-45 by
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
The situation at the four is cyan city, baby.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
THE THEM
Return game, reference to previous personnel breakdown. This particular return game is just a couple weeks after a prior game so updates are exceedingly thin on the ground:
- Rutgers was 5/16 from the free throw line, and while they are bad at FTs nobody is that bad. They hit 70% on the year. Cliff Omoruyi went 0/4 and while he's not exactly good at 60% he is not early season Tarris Reed, either.
- Since that game Michigan has won at Penn State and then lost to Minnesota (by a point, but still) and Northwestern. The Penn State game saw Rutgers trail 42-23 a few minutes into the second half.
- They've been alternating shooting horribly from two with shooting horribly from three. So they've got that going for them.
With only three games to change the narrative from the last time Rutgers was previewed, there is not a whole lot to say.
THE TEMPO FREE
Conference numbers:
Every Rutgers game is a rock fight. They are the #11 offense in league play and the #1 defense; their defense is in fact fourth nationally. They're 14th in the Big Ten at making twos, 12th at making threes, and tenth or worse on every drill down stat except assists. Keep this team off the offensive boards and you will hold them under a PPP.
Defensively they are a highly active team with a 12% steal rate, 12th nationally. They hit that number in the first game but Michigan committed only 3 non-steal turnovers to keep their shot volume acceptably high, and Michigan stole the ball a whopping 11(!) times in an uncharacteristic outburst of opposition turnovers.
THE KEYS
WELP. The Indiana preview had two bullets about efforting…
Ty Rodgers, a no-shoot burlywing, obliterated Michigan with a 6/9 performance from the floor with five offensive rebounds. He crushed future NBA player Jett Howard. That's more on Howard than anyone else. Does this team care to make the tournament or not?
…and having someone outside of the Big Three do anything…
Can anyone else do anything at all? Howard, Bufkin, and Dickinson had all but 18 Michigan points in a double OT game. Will Tschetter had 0, Tarris Reed 3, Terrance Williams 6, and Joey Baker 0 despite getting four clean looks from three. Offensively Michigan's three stars did enough to win but got almost literally no help from the rest of the roster.
…and Race Thompson went off for 16 while Michigan got 10 points from McDaniel… and four from the other five players who got in. Not getting crushed on the boards by a team that does nothing well on offense except rebound would be good. And
Cam Spencer threes: no. Almost literally the only good shot on the Rutgers roster is a Cam Spencer three. Michigan did a great job of limiting him in the first game; he only got up three attempts. If this is suddenly not the case in a game where Jett Howard is playing… well… the charges are gonna stick.
Post battle. Dickinson had a relatively muted performance against Omoruyi with 13 points, a couple turnovers, and not much else. Omoruyi is an excellent defensive center but Dickinson ended the regular season on a bit of a tear—an efficient 23, 31, and 24—and it would be exceedingly helpful if he could play like that going forward.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
I'M NOT PICKING MICHIGAN BY A POINT RUTGERS BY A BILLION SCREW YOU KENPOM
As you say, Tschetter, Reed, Williams and Baker are all the same person results wise.
Huh? This is a completely absurd suggestion
I agree. If Tarris could stay out of foul trouble, he should start. Bring Cheddar and TWill off of the bench.
'I'M NOT PICKING MICHIGAN BY A POINT RUTGERS BY A BILLION SCREW YOU KENPOM'
Marking this as the pivot point if Michigan goes on yet another prolonged unforeseen postseason NCAA tourney run...
"I'M NOT PICKING MICHIGAN BY A POINT RUTGERS BY A BILLION SCREW YOU KENPOM."
I differ slightly from that unusually heated expression.
Channeling James Earl Jones, instead I say, calmly and respectfully: WIN THE GAME
Worry if:
-Juwan has to draw up a game tying/winning play on the last possession
-Rutgers makes free throws this time
-Michigan leads by 7 with ~2 minutes left
Cackle with knowing glee if:
-Rutgers jumps out to an early lead
-Dickinson is locked in from the beginning
-Michigan gets anything at all out of Cheddar/T-Will
Michigan 62-57
Unleash the Reed.
The project is ready.
Tempting Kenpom cause Brian wants the season to be over, but do you really want to be writing NIT game previews?
I like Jace, but I think he should have gotten a “cyan-by-association.”
The 8-9 game seems likely to be the worst spot Michigan could have landed. Beating Rutgers doesnt move the needle at all and I think a rematch with Purdue looks a lot uglier than the first meeting.
I'm going to actually disagree with that. Yes, beating Purdue will be difficult but a win against Rutgers on a neutral court will absolutely move the needle! That game still qualifies as a Quad-1 neutral court win. In addition to that, the #1 seed very often comes out sluggish in their first game of the tourney.
Still going to be tough but the double bye would have hurt this team as it would have had a much more difficult first game.
Just my take.
Yep, this draw gives us our best way to make the NCAAs, short of winning the whole tourney / making a good showing in the title game but losing.
Love this draw, as there is still work to be done - we can get 3 Q1 wins in 2 games by Friday:
1.) Beat Rutger (and pass them on the S-Curve in the process)
2.) Beat Purdue (Q1A win, resume-stamping)
3.) If we play sparty Saturday (sparty beats Iowa Friday) Q1 regardless, with a win or an L, as Sparty beating Iowa/Michigan moves them from #31 to Top-30 for the Crisler game to be Q1 status.
6 Q1 Ws with Rutger/Purdon't scalps should do it.
Rutgers is the absolute perfect first round matchup.
1) They're top 50 in NET so it's a q1 game that will absolutely move the needle.
2) They're playing like dog doo despite that lofty NET ranking and are clearly inferior to Michigan
3) They're squarely on the bubble so beating them not only moves the needle for us it probably moves them out of the field.
It's a great bang for the buck kind of game, ie you get a lot without it being overly difficult.
Purdue is a tough team but,
1) They're also not playing well. Since Feb 2, they're 4-4 and the 26th best team in the country (Michigan has been the 15th best), per Torvik
2) They're a relatively good matchup for Michigan because Hunter is big enough to hang with Edey and Purdue runs the least amount of pick and roll in the conference so it spares Michigan of the thing we struggle to deal with the most.\
Michigan will certainly be an underdog but it's another good bang for the buck matchup, ie. it's a very high quality win on paper without being overly impossible to get (IMO).
You get what you deserve.
Cyan....cyan everywhere! I feel the sentiment early in the preview - just let this team die.
If this is goodbye for the season....thank God
Booooooo!
I feel like this team is destined to beat Rutgers fairly easily, be up 4 on Purdue with 1:20 left, miss the front end of a one and one, have a disastrous miscommunication on ball screen defense to allow a three, shot clock violation, a put back dunk, and then a contested 17 foot jumper at the buzzer that they brick at the buzzer.
Considering half of our game-winning/tying situations end in an embarrassing turnover/blocked shot/airball, I think a brick at the buzzer is pretty good improvement
We should get a half point just for hitting the rim.
Can’t put more of this in the universe!
Regression to the mean = late season wins!
Let’s win the whole fucking thing!
The "burlyman" icon looks like the bicep flyer from always sunny. When I saw it my first thought was Terrance Williams got an invite to the party mansion.
My bpone prediction for the BTT. We beat Rutgers to give us another flicker of hope. We then lead Purdue by 7 points with 3 minutes left only to go to double OT and lose in characteristically sad fashion.
Can’t put more of this in the universe!
Regression to the mean = late season wins!
Let’s win the whole fucking thing!
If we win all remaining games, we are National Champions!
Now we’re talking!
Cmon men, you can still do it. Make the tournament and get sent to Birmingham. I’ll be here waiting.
We have a lot more cyan than they do. Hard to be a 4 person team.
This would be a good Gus Macker team 3v3.
I don’t know how Rutgers even scores these days. M 38-33
It’s conceivable we could achieve a rebounding Rutger in this game considering we average ~37 boards/game as a team and we held them to 45 last time out.
Or would they have achieved the Rutger in that case? I forget how that word works. Either way.
Since that game Michigan has won at Penn State and lost to Minnesota (by a point, but still) and Northwestern
You mean Rutgers.
I’ve got a weird feeling that Joey Baker is going to make some HUGE buckets this weekend. Take it to em boys !!
PLEASE JUST LET ME DIE
Your wish was granted
Dang it your Rutgers by a billion was correct ! 👎🏼👎🏼
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