THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#5 Michigan (11-1, 6-1 B1G) vs #45 Maryland (8-6, 2-5)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7 PM Eastern Tuesday January 19th
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -9 Torvik: M –10.3 DraftKings: M -10
TELEVISION	FS1 PBP: Lisa Byington Analyst: Stephen Bardo

THE OVERVIEW

Another return game for Michigan looms after Minnesota flipped the script last time out. This one looks friendlier because it's a home game and Maryland lost the first game by 11 despite shooting 59% from three. On the other hand, Maryland's most recent Big Ten outing was a win over Illinois. That means the 2-5 Big Ten team has two wins over top 20 Kenpom teams. (Maryland previously took down Wisconsin.)

Note that the "Big Ten" qualifier in the previous paragraph was required because Maryland's most recent game was a 100-58 win over D-II Wingate, a game that Maryland threw on the schedule because cancellations gave them a nine-day gap between games.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Eli Brooks is an injury question. Martelli said it was "almost hour by hour" in a press conference. Turgeon said he's heard Brooks will try to play, and since Deandre Haynes is one of his assistants he might have some inside scoop.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Eric Ayala missed Maryland's last two games with a groin injury but is expected to return. Turgeon says they're "a little worried about his conditioning" and it sounds like the plan is to start Hakim Hart while bringing Ayala off the bench.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

A full accounting of Maryland's personnel can be found in Ace's preview of the first game. The upshot is that Maryland is a poorly-constructed team with no true point guard; they start four wings. Their bigs are a couple of undersized transfers and a 7'2" freshman beanpole who needs a lot of seasoning. Updates:

• Aaron Wiggins may be getting his shooting off the mat a bit. He's 12/29 from three since the first edition of the preview, though that includes a 4/7 performance against Wingate. Even if all of those were wide open that's still a good sign for him. He's gotten his 3P% up to 30% on the season.
• Daryll Morsell missed the Indiana game after Franz Wagner dented his face; he returned with a mask, struggled against Iowa, and then made a blizzard of clutch midrange jumpers in the Illinois win.
• Donta Scott has cooled off some after blazing the nets in the first outing. Still shooting 54% from three on the season, albeit on just 43 attempts.
• Early-enrolled freshman James Graham, a 6'8" wing ranked 124th on the composite, has started seeing a little time. Graham was technically available for the first game but had been on campus only a few days. He got 13 minutes against Wingate; his Big Ten experience to date consists of 14 minutes, three missed triples, and a few rebounds.

Everyone else is more or less on the same track.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference numbers are out of 14. Left is offense, right is defense.

It probably won't surprise anyone who saw the first game that Maryland is hucking up a bunch of threes and seeing them go down at a 36% clip, 4th in the league. They also play a lot of iso-ball, with 49% of their buckets assisted.

Despite the presence of Morsell, Maryland is 13th in steal acquisition; this will hopefully be a spot where Michigan can get their turnovers down.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Beat 'em up down low. Hunter Dickinson had the first outright bad game of his career against Minnesota, getting pulled for Austin Davis repeatedly and turning the ball over five times. Maryland will no doubt double frequently in an attempt to get him to replicate that performance.

Also arguing in favor of doubling: Maryland is getting crushed by opposing fives. Kofi Cockburn had 21 points on 13 shot equivalents and one TO; Luka Garza had 24 on 16; Trayce Jackson-Davis had 22 on 21; Dickinson had 26 on 14(!) in the first outing. Per Synergy, Maryland is 26th percentile in post+passes D.

IMO it is good to have your center score almost two points per possession used.

Stay in front. It's probably less of an issue if Brooks is not available in this game because Maryland does not have a guy you'd classify as a high-usage penetrating guard. Chaundee Brown is perfectly suited to check any of Maryland's infinite 6'5" dudes. Michigan successfully kept Maryland away from the rim in the last outing and maintaining that—as they did not against Minnesota—will go a long way towards a win.

Try to contest threes better? Michigan is inevitably going to have some issues when Jarius Hamilton is out there since he's a 5 hitting 40% from deep, but they did find a way to heavily contest a bunch of Maryland 3s in the second half when they brought out a 2-3 zone, oddly.

I'm not sure much is going to change here unless Michigan's hand is again forced by something absurd in the first half. Michigan is concentrating on defending the rim and has given up a fairly large number of open looks in most games; it has not burned them meaningfully.

Get someone from outside the top 7 to chip in. Brooks is questionable, and last time out Zeb Jackson, Brandon Johns, and Terrance Williams had minimal impact. For this game and others down the road, Michigan's finding some consistency from guy #8 would be an important development.

Given the shape of things this almost has to be Johns.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 9.