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Hoops Preview: Maryland 2020-21, Part Two
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #5 Michigan (11-1, 6-1 B1G) vs #45 Maryland (8-6, 2-5) |
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WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
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WHEN | 7 PM Eastern Tuesday January 19th |
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THE LINE | Kenpom: M -9 Torvik: M –10.3 DraftKings: M -10 |
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TELEVISION | FS1 PBP: Lisa Byington Analyst: Stephen Bardo |
THE OVERVIEW
Another return game for Michigan looms after Minnesota flipped the script last time out. This one looks friendlier because it's a home game and Maryland lost the first game by 11 despite shooting 59% from three. On the other hand, Maryland's most recent Big Ten outing was a win over Illinois. That means the 2-5 Big Ten team has two wins over top 20 Kenpom teams. (Maryland previously took down Wisconsin.)
Note that the "Big Ten" qualifier in the previous paragraph was required because Maryland's most recent game was a 100-58 win over D-II Wingate, a game that Maryland threw on the schedule because cancellations gave them a nine-day gap between games.
THE US
Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:
Eli Brooks is an injury question. Martelli said it was "almost hour by hour" in a press conference. Turgeon said he's heard Brooks will try to play, and since Deandre Haynes is one of his assistants he might have some inside scoop.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
Eric Ayala missed Maryland's last two games with a groin injury but is expected to return. Turgeon says they're "a little worried about his conditioning" and it sounds like the plan is to start Hakim Hart while bringing Ayala off the bench.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
A full accounting of Maryland's personnel can be found in Ace's preview of the first game. The upshot is that Maryland is a poorly-constructed team with no true point guard; they start four wings. Their bigs are a couple of undersized transfers and a 7'2" freshman beanpole who needs a lot of seasoning. Updates:
- Aaron Wiggins may be getting his shooting off the mat a bit. He's 12/29 from three since the first edition of the preview, though that includes a 4/7 performance against Wingate. Even if all of those were wide open that's still a good sign for him. He's gotten his 3P% up to 30% on the season.
- Daryll Morsell missed the Indiana game after Franz Wagner dented his face; he returned with a mask, struggled against Iowa, and then made a blizzard of clutch midrange jumpers in the Illinois win.
- Donta Scott has cooled off some after blazing the nets in the first outing. Still shooting 54% from three on the season, albeit on just 43 attempts.
- Early-enrolled freshman James Graham, a 6'8" wing ranked 124th on the composite, has started seeing a little time. Graham was technically available for the first game but had been on campus only a few days. He got 13 minutes against Wingate; his Big Ten experience to date consists of 14 minutes, three missed triples, and a few rebounds.
Everyone else is more or less on the same track.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference numbers are out of 14. Left is offense, right is defense.
It probably won't surprise anyone who saw the first game that Maryland is hucking up a bunch of threes and seeing them go down at a 36% clip, 4th in the league. They also play a lot of iso-ball, with 49% of their buckets assisted.
Despite the presence of Morsell, Maryland is 13th in steal acquisition; this will hopefully be a spot where Michigan can get their turnovers down.
THE KEYS
[Campredon]
Beat 'em up down low. Hunter Dickinson had the first outright bad game of his career against Minnesota, getting pulled for Austin Davis repeatedly and turning the ball over five times. Maryland will no doubt double frequently in an attempt to get him to replicate that performance.
Also arguing in favor of doubling: Maryland is getting crushed by opposing fives. Kofi Cockburn had 21 points on 13 shot equivalents and one TO; Luka Garza had 24 on 16; Trayce Jackson-Davis had 22 on 21; Dickinson had 26 on 14(!) in the first outing. Per Synergy, Maryland is 26th percentile in post+passes D.
IMO it is good to have your center score almost two points per possession used.
Stay in front. It's probably less of an issue if Brooks is not available in this game because Maryland does not have a guy you'd classify as a high-usage penetrating guard. Chaundee Brown is perfectly suited to check any of Maryland's infinite 6'5" dudes. Michigan successfully kept Maryland away from the rim in the last outing and maintaining that—as they did not against Minnesota—will go a long way towards a win.
Try to contest threes better? Michigan is inevitably going to have some issues when Jarius Hamilton is out there since he's a 5 hitting 40% from deep, but they did find a way to heavily contest a bunch of Maryland 3s in the second half when they brought out a 2-3 zone, oddly.
I'm not sure much is going to change here unless Michigan's hand is again forced by something absurd in the first half. Michigan is concentrating on defending the rim and has given up a fairly large number of open looks in most games; it has not burned them meaningfully.
Get someone from outside the top 7 to chip in. Brooks is questionable, and last time out Zeb Jackson, Brandon Johns, and Terrance Williams had minimal impact. For this game and others down the road, Michigan's finding some consistency from guy #8 would be an important development.
Given the shape of things this almost has to be Johns.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 9.
January 19th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
It's always tough to lose a starter, especially without a lot of time to make adjustments. I certainly hope Brooks is back for this game, but I am hopeful even if he is still out, the team will be better prepared than last time out.
January 19th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
Key to winning: Don't shoot yourself in the foot.
January 19th, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^
Or get dented in the face.
January 19th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
We have Stephen Bardo again? Over/Under how many times he brings up his "Flying Ilini" days and how they were better than the 89 Michigan team despite losing to them in the Final Four?
January 19th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
That doesn't really bother me so much. I feel sorry for that team. They were the greatest ever basketball team at their university and they took a back seat to Michigan that year.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
2004-'05 might have surpassed them. Deron Williams, Luther Head, Dee Brown (+ big man James Augustine). What a squad.
January 19th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
He's really not wrong. UM lost twice to Ill by double digits in the regular season. Ill was #3 seed and was favored in the Final Four. If not for a Higgins put back, that game goes to OT and Ill probably wins.
But I'm thrilled with how it turned out.
January 19th, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^
Anyone is better than Dakich. Bardo isn’t bad.
January 19th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Can't stand Dakich's angry dad shtick. That said, he was even worse when he was pretending to be John Beilein's best friend and confidant. Man that was annoying.
January 19th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
I think we'll see Zeb Jackson play much better going forward if he gets more minutes. I can see him doing well and hitting some shots against Maryland if Brooks is out. He's got the talent, and I think he was just tight playing in his first meaningful action in a Big Ten game.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^
I'm hopeful of the same thing. It looked like he was reverting to what he probably did in high school: by far the most talented, athletic player on the floor who could single handedly win a game. That generally does not work at this level.
January 19th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
He actually didn't start at Montverde Academy. To me, it seems like he is trying too hard to make the most of his limited time on the floor. He has a tons of talent but needs to slow down and make quality decisions.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
I think Brandon Wade will be eligible for this game. He is a walk on but was a scholarship player at Duquesne of the Atlantic 10 and played in 27 games, with one start. If he is eligible I would expect him to see some time if Eli can't go.
January 19th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
Surprised we haven’t see Wade, I thought he was available early January. It seems like he could give us 5-10 minutes a game if Eli is out...
January 19th, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^
Beat the Twerps (sp?)
January 19th, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^
The rest of the schedule contains very few, if any gimmes. Thank goodness Santa hooked me up with a Costco sized bucket of Tums. If you’d told me at the beginning of the season we’d only lose 4 B10 games I would have been happy but a 10-0 overall start resets the bar. Of course with COVID who knows how many losses or wins anyone ends up with. Hope the guys are firing on all cylinders tonight. Losing two in a row has a bad sound to it.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
The first couple of minutes will be telling IMO - if the team comes out cohesively on offense and don't turn the ball over, they'll probably bounce back fine. But if they continue to throw the ball away and struggle to shoot, this could get ugly. Maryland won't shoot 80% from 3 for a half again, but they're a competent outfit that absolutely has beaten Wisconsin and Illinois on the road; they won't be scared about playing at Crisler.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
This game is a lock for Michigan. As of right now I only have blue and yellow M&Ms left in my big-ass Costco container because I eat all the other girly-man colors first. In the past that has portended UM steamrolling their next opponent.
M&Ms don't lie.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
As much as Brooks showed his value by his absence last game, he should probably sit out one more if there is any chance that playing will make it worse. I think we can beat MD without him, and given that their whole roster is 6-5 to 6-9, maybe this would be a good game to get Johns some more play at the 4, and use Chaundee as the 2 guard.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
agree. Id rather sit brooks and make sure he heals faster and is 100% ready when we need him vs the goliaths.
January 19th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
Hope we see Jackson get some quality time as we need another guard off the bench.
January 19th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^
I think Darryl Morsell is going to give us fits in this game and prevent the large runs that have been the hallmark of Michigan’s recent wins. Before he got knocked out of the game by the Wagner elbow, he’d played really good perimeter D. Michigan didn’t pull away until after his exit.
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