basketball previews
2021-22 illinois #2
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Hoops Preview: Illinois 2021-22, Part Two Comment Count

Brian February 25th, 2022 at 1:15 PM

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #30 Michigan (15-11, 9-7 Big Ten)
vs #16 Illinois (19-8, 12-5 Big Ten)



WHERE Crisler Arena
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 2 PM Sunday
THE LINE Kenpom: M -1
Torvik: M -1
TELEVISION CBS

THE OVERVIEW

Tourney Quest 2022 continues with the return game against a suddenly reeling Illinois squad, 2-3 over its last three after starting the season 17-5. Brad Underwood was ejected from Illinois' game against OSU yesterday, and then did this:

Got some angry dudes in this league.

Underwood lost his marbles as he's seeing the Big Ten title slip away for the second consecutive season. Both Purdue and Wisconsin are a game up in the standings with three left to play, and the toughest game left on both team's schedule is definitely going to be a win for one or the other since it's Purdue @ Wisconsin. Illinois has to win out to have a shot at a share and will be angry and desperate. So they're in the same emotional space as Michigan, more or less.

The first matchup here was immediately after Michigan's COVID pause and without Hunter Dickinson. Then Diabate got in foul trouble, leading to 13 minutes of Jaron Faulds that went better than Michigan had any right to expect. They hung tough and was down one at the seven minute mark, and then the doors fell off. Last year's all-hands-on-deck meeting was a 17 point Illinois win.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Juwan Howard is still out.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for them again]

THE THEM

Updates from the first preview:

  • Andre Curbelo returned from injury immediately after the Michigan game and immediately leapt into the Isaiah Washington Memorial Disaster Factory Of The Year lead. Curbelo is shooting 41/23 in Big Ten play on 30% usage with the same elevated TO/assist rates he had as a freshman. That adds up to a cool 86 ORTG and plenty of online conspiracies about Curbelo being a double agent. He is not starting but is averaging ~15 MPG in games he's actually played in. On the other hand, Curbelo did well against Michigan last year and has the talent to blow up at any point—Underwood says that he's practiced a total of 14 times this year so it's understandable he's rusty, and a guy like Curbelo who's rusty is a walking explosion. 
  • Kofi Cockburn's shooting efficiency has dropped significantly in Big Ten play. He's still very good and huge but last year he shot 66% from the floor; this year he's at 57%. He is still shooting FTs at a 65% clip instead of a 55% clip. 
  • Alphonso Plummer has lost a lot of two-point efficiency in league play (43%) but remains a lethal shooter with a rock-bottom TO rate.
  • Backup RJ Melendez is likely out after appendix surgery. As a result of his absence Coleman Hawkins got 26 minutes against Ohio State, up from his usual dozen. Illinois played him at the 5 some in that game despite Hawkins being a 6'10", 215 beanpole. That is unlikely to recur against Michigan, I'd expect the more post-ish Omar Payne. 

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers are fairly ominous:

Illinois is #1 in the conference in three pointers attempted and three pointers prevented. The former is obvious since Cockburn demands more doubles than anyone in the league. The latter is not especially since they're the best in the league at defending twos. That's a powerful combination.  They also prevent assists well.

Illinois pushes a ton of opponent usage into the "other twos" zone. 44% of opponent shots are classified thusly, which is seven points better than league #2 Michigan. (Michigan's problem is not where the shots are coming from but the fact that they're second to last in the Big Ten at defending both at the rim and against other twos.)

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Let them fight. It is Michigan versus Illinois with a full complement of players so obviously the Cockburn vs Dickinson kaiju battle will be the headline event. This was Dickinson's worst game of the season a year ago, as he went 1/8 from the floor with no assists. Dickinson did a good job of neutralizing Cockburn on the other end of the floor—while Cockburn went 6/10 from two a couple of those buckets were against a massively overmatched Austin Davis—but Michigan without an effective Dickinson was a mess last year and is even more of a mess this year.

Dickinson's increased shooting proficiency should help here, especially if he's able to lift Cockburn out of the paint, but he's going to have to hit some shots to activate that. After a hot streak he hasn't hit a three in four games.

Floater time. Illinois is going to force Eli Brooks and Devante Jones to take and make floaters. Those shots went down at surprising rates against Rutgers (Brooks even hit a Zavier Simpson sky hook). Continuing to hit those would be a critical 6-8 points.

Hooray for home Caleb Houstan. Ye gods:

Houston's 5/9 from three against Rutgers was obviously a big deal—this space noted that Michigan had been getting mid-teens combined scoring from everyone not named Dickinson/Brooks/Jones in losses—and the above chart bodes well for this coming homestand, if not the (hypothetical) NCAA Tournament.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.

Comments

WindyCityBlue

February 25th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^

It's been a few years since we beat Illinois (trust me, I hear it all the time here in Chicago).  So let's just get this win if for anything other than satisfying my selfish need to shut my neighbors up.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 40771

WindyCityBlue

February 25th, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^

Funny thing.  I made a several bets with Illini fans last year about who would make it further in the NCAA tournament (I picked Michigan of course).  When Illinois lost to Loyola in the round of 32, it was one of the most joyful texts I've ever sent to my Illini friends.  I made about $700 last year on that bet alone.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 40771

KBLOW

February 25th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^

The angry Illinois could spell trouble, but I see the refs making up for their typical "Let's let Liddel do whatever he wants but call fouls on anything similar the opposing team does" that they applied so generously to Cockburn and Hawkins, by letting Kofi run wild this game. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 22581

bronxblue

February 25th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^

As usual, it'll come down to how much the team gets offensively (and defensively) from Houstan and Diabate.  Illinois closed well last year; they aren't this year as much and one thing I've noticed is that they struggle more against teams with competent big men who can at least annoy Cockburn and force other people to beat them.  Michigan has Dickinson and Diabata, and that's something.  I still think Illinois wins because they seem to have UM's number, but UM has been playing pretty well recently (8-3 over their last 11) and are going to see this as a great chance to pick up a bid-sealing win.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171742

goblu330

February 25th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^

No.  He would obviously play with Dickinson some.  I just don’t think that has been a particularly consistently effective look.  They struggle badly getting outside shooting with that lineup.  I think they at least need to threaten from deep at the 4.  I know it is not the greatest option to have to go to but I think to make the tourney they need to see if they can get a late season run from Johns.  Like I said, I know it’s not great, but it’s what they have.

Joined: 01/07/2022

MGoPoints: 32123

GoingBlue

February 25th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^

The Home/Away splits for Houstan are for sure some what real, but I really think it is just a matter of small sample size. In the NBA they would be at the 1/3rd mark of the season, and everyone would be saying that he will find his stroke eventually. I think Caleb was probably overthinking and nervous to start the year in some big games, but he has become more comfortable and I think he will be a high 30s or low 40s guy from here out, home or away. 

Joined: 01/04/2017

MGoPoints: 1545

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 4:07 PM ^

Home court is worth about 4 points.  So this implies Illinois is about 3 points better than Michigan on a neutral floor.

Do you think the disparity is more than that?  Michigan hung with them for 33 minutes without their best player at Illinois.

This isn't a huge mismatch.  As Matt said under his column, Michigan has played like a top 25 team since getting everyone back from covid (during which time they've been 8-4 against a very tough schedule).

I think Michigan matches up with them pretty well, especially if Curbelo is struggling.  If things click for him, his size could be a problem.  But Dickinson is a relatively good matchup for Kofi. 

And while Illinois likewise matches up well with Michigan and is generally just a very good defense, I think if Hunter can step out and hit some threes, the game totally changes compared to last year.  And I think that's how they're going to scheme things up to draw Kofi away from the basket.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

ak47

February 25th, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^

Michigan really, really struggles every time they go against a team with a center that can guard Dickinson one on one. It happened against Illinois last year, it happened against Arizona this year, etc. We don't have the perimeter shot making ability to run a functional offense that isn't taking advantage of an unsound defense. Dickinson means Michigan is playing against an unsound defense most of the time he is on the floor but that isn't true for IL. Some guys are going to have to take and hit some contested perimeter shots they don't normally or Dickinson is going to have to dominate his matchup with Cockburn for Michigan to win this game.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^

I agree with you, until Dickinson changed things up and stopped trying to force it against Zack Edey at Purdue and took him outside and then Michigan didn't struggle in either Purdue game despite going against a dominant post defender.

That's how the equation changes.  Hunter needs to play an outside game, let Moussa cut, let Jones drive (which he did to good effect against Illinois the first time).  But yes, if Hunter is stuck to the paint and not being effective like against Illinois last year or Arizona this year, the whole thing grinds to a halt.

He needs to take at least six threes, IMO and hit at least two of them.  It's crazy how streaky his three point shooting has been. He's taken at least one 3pt shot in 21 of Michigan's 25 games.  He's only made one in 8 of them.  And 12 of his 16 total makes have come in just four games.  Two of those games were Purdue games.  I don't know if that means he just got lucky in those games, or if it means he's better when he actually makes an effort to step outside and actually shoot multiple of them.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

DetroitDan

February 25th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^

I watched the Illinois - Ohio State game yesterday.  I wasn't watching closely, but I was impressed with both teams, and did not think the officiating was bad.  Rather, EJ Liddell is fantastic, and so is Malaki Branham.  Ohio State won convincingly on the road, but Illinois was shooting lights out in the first half until Ohio State beat them to a pulp.  The Illinois coach totally lost his composure as demonstrated in the video at the top of the post.

So I hope we win, but Illinois looked very good to me and will be desperate to bounce back.  Michigan has looked extremely good when Houstan is playing well, so I hope for that plus continued good play by the other starters and continued improvement from the bench players,

Joined: 01/14/2021

MGoPoints: 4058