THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#12 Michigan (8-1) vs #43 Illinois (6-3)
WHERE	The HomeSure Lending Center Champaign, IL
WHEN	9 pm Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan -1 (KenPom) Michigan –0.3 (Torvik)
TELEVISION	BTN

They stole the otter and then they voted it down. This is a big game.

THE US

Seth's graphic:

click for big

If those look like some razor-thin lines above for a matchup between a borderline top-ten team and a borderline top-50 one, well, welcome to the road. You no doubt remember that Michigan got baptized by Louisville in its first true road game of the season. You will no doubt remember road Wagner face, what with the fouls being called and the arms waving all about and incredulous mouthpiece removal. Prepare for more road Wagner face.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

click for big

Things haven't gone to plan for Brad Underwood in what was supposed to be Illinois's breakout year. The Illini lost no one of note, got back potential NBA draftee Ayo Donsunmu, added a big-time center recruit who already looks like he's a hit, and promptly lost to the first three pulse-bearing opponents they faced. An upcoming neutral-court game against Mizzou is the last opportunity the Illini have to do anything in the nonconference; if they don't manage that it's going to be a long, hard road to the tourney.

 

The main reason it hasn't gone to plan for the Illini is they have no shooting, but also they lost in mind-bending fashion at Maryland their last time out. Zip to 2:30 to see Cowan hit a three from the Crab Nebula, whereupon Illinois has the ball with the shot clock off in a tie game and manages to lose in regulation:

As they say whenever John Engler walks into a room, yikes.

Illinois's other two losses are less understandable. They got hammered by 21 at Arizona and lost at home to Kenpom #83 Miami. Meanwhile the best team they've beaten is #173 Hawaii; they went to OT with #223 Nicholls State in their opener.

A side note: this roster is almost as international as Gonzaga's, featuring players from Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Georgia, and Belgium.

PERSONNEL

The graphic above is correct but necessarily a bit misleading. Both Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili start and play starter's minutes but they're only on the court together about a third of the time because "starter's minutes" means 25, as it does for many non-Teske posts. For two thirds of the game Illinois has one post and then a 4-man who's going to be 6'5", tops.

Despite being a freshman, Cockburn is a grown-ass man, perhaps the most grown-ass of all the men in the Big Ten. He's listed at 7-foot, 290 and looks every bit of it. This is in part because he's old enough to play hockey at an ECAC school, having turned 20 in September. Colin Castleton is 8 months younger than him.

He has already become the Illinois alpha dog, with a 29% usage rate. All of this is doing 1980s post stuff. Two thirds of his shots are at the rim; the rest are attempts to get shots at the rim that turn into short hooks and the like. Jon Teske's job will be forcing the latter, as Cockburn is 73% at the rim and 33% away from it. Almost all of his work will be done before Cockburn gets the ball, because dude takes maybe one dribble before he shoots and preferably zero. Illinois does a lot of work to get him the ball in a spot where he can turn and finish at the rim because it's worth it. This will be an immediate test of Michigan's reaction to getting Garza'd by Iowa, because Illinois is going to try to do the exact same things to win post position Teske can do little with.

The other major challenge in dealing with Cockburn is his beastly OREB rate. That is currently 20%, second nationally, and he has 8 OREBs in three games against high-majors so it's not solely a competition level thing.

Cockburn doesn't bring the defensive presence you might expect. Illinois gave up 1.07 PPP against their three high-major opponents whether he was on the floor or off.

That's not great when the alternative C is a ground-bound 6'9" guy. Cockburn's block rate of 3.4% is modest for a giant mountain-person.

the first Z will mess you up

Bezhanishvili remains a skilled banger who plays in concrete shoes. Bezhanishvili vastly exceeded expectations in year one while giving off the distinct aura of a player who will be the exact same for the duration of his career because he's already hit a limited ceiling. This is good news for bloggers who just learned to spell his name without looking it up, but less good news for Illinois.

Bezhanishvili is Bezhanishvili. He's still an awful individual defensive rebounder who doesn't alter shots. His usage has dipped with Cockburn's arrival; oddly, so has his effectiveness. After hitting 58% from two last year with essentially no dropoff in Big Ten play, he's hitting 51% this year against a schedule that's still two-thirds low-majors. He's hurt by half of his playing time coming in dual-post situations where he gets pushed further from the basket, where he has limited ability.

Two things have improved: assist rate, as Bezhanishvili dumps high-post entry passes to Cockburn, and a probably-fluky start from 3. After going 5/30 last year he's 5/8 so far this year. Zero attempts in the last three games suggests that he's not taking them unless he's wide open, but he's going to be wide open.

draft video that takes 2:30 to show a half-court possession: that's Ayo

The other three spots are returners. The sophomore version of Ayo "Meep Meep" Donsunmu is statistically identical to the freshman version, which has to be disappointing for Illinois fans envisioning a true star. Donsunmu is good but not that good, still over-reliant on transition to get his numbers. Last year 38% of his FGAs were in the first ten seconds of the clock; this year that number is 35% and he has a giant efficiency gap. Transition: 66% eFG. Half-court: 44%. Against mugs!

In the half-court Donsunmu settles for a ton of mid-range jumpers and tough runners, which explains his Just A Shooter FT rate, and doesn't finish well when he does get to the rim. At 6'5", 175, he's still too slight to power through contact, so he avoids it. Donsunmu is also in a bit of a shooting slump, hitting 27% on his 30 threes this season after hitting 35% last year.

Michigan got the business end of the road runner in the first half of last year's game; Donsunmu got 17 points, almost all of it in transition. In the second half they got set and Donsunmu scuffled to six more.

SG Trent Frazier is also the same guy when he's actually using possessions. Last year he was a conscience-free 41% three-point shooter with serious off-the-dribble skills. Bad Illinois possessions were only so bad because Frazier was able to bail them out. He was one of the most contest-immune shooters in the Big Ten. A whopping 43% of his makes were unassisted(!) and he shot 36% on his 42 late-clock jacks.

Unfortunately for Illinois this was only half the story. The other half of Frazier's shots came inside the line, where he was miserable (42%) and even worse in the half-court. He did have a reasonable assist rate to help prop up his teammates. He was Not Just A Shooter who should have dropped the "Not".

The weird thing is that Frazier has gone from one of three guys at about the same usage level to freshman Isaiah Livers territory. I don't know if I've ever seen a guy going into his junior year drop 9 points of usage, as Frazier has. He's off to a really efficient start because his FT rate has spiked and he's hitting 42% from deep, but his role in the offense has become peripheral. He remains terrible inside the line, FTs excepted.

The final starter is PG Andres Feliz. Illinois's sixth man started the most recent game but Feliz got 27 minutes anyway so whether or not he comes off the bench is immaterial; Michigan's going to see a lot of him. Feliz was a fine addition as a JUCO transfer to an Illinois team that needed bodies of any description last year, but like the rest of Illinois's returners he seems to be more or less the same guy he was a year ago.

That is a slasher with a decent assist rate, too many turnovers, and a near-total inability to shoot from the outside. He hit 27% of his 37 threes a year ago; he's 1/6 this year.

The Illinois bench:

• Junior guard Da'Monte Williams, who gets 20 minutes a game with near-invisible usage (10%). I'm calling him a defensive stopper because he shot 37/32 last year and still got half of Illini minutes. If he's not a good defender he wouldn't sniff the court. Illinois's offense has cratered with him on the floor against high majors, losing nearly 0.2 PPP.
• Sophomore wing Alan Griffin. 50/30 shooting last year with Just A Shooter peripherals. Does get bunch of OREBs for a wing.
• Senior wing/PF Kipper Nichols, who had a promising sophomore year but has gradually petered out into a guy who gets scattered minutes only. Shot 38% from three on 82 attempts as a sophomore, then 22% last year and is 0/6 this year. Does own 145 and 155 ORTG games against Michigan if you're wondering why that name makes you twitch.
• Freshman PF Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk. Has a collective 12 trillion against high-majors but if you thought I was going to pass on the opportunity to mention "Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk" you are a very silly person indeed. Belgian, obviously. So Belgian he may have waffles for hands, which would explain the playing time.

The pressure on the starters ramps up when any of these guys are in the game; foul trouble for anyone other than a center would be a problem for the Illini.

THE RELEVANT NUMBERS

Illinois factors:

Four Factors explanation

Brad Underwood has junked his frenetic all-the-turnovers-and-fouls defense for something statistically identical to Michigan's approach. Last year Illinois's D was 24th in TO rate and 338th in FT rate as the Illini swarmed the ball in an attempt to get live-ball TO stops and the transition buckets that ensued. They gave up a ton of easy twos as a result.

This year: no TOs, no fouls. 39% of opponent shots are in the midrange, just a hair behind Michigan. Illinois is giving up more threes than Michigan, and those threes are falling at a decent rate; Michigan is also much better at contesting at the rim despite having more of their shots end up there.

The other Factor that is a blinking DANGER sign is the Illinois OREB rate, which is #1 nationally. Against high majors they've lost 10 points of that, which is still very good but in mortal territory. Michigan has been meh on the defensive boards this year and most versions of this game in which Illinois wins feature M getting slaughtered on the glass.

The drill-down number that jumps out is Illinois's rate of 3PAs. They're 346th; only 27% of their shots are threes. They're 250th at making them. Pretty much anyone other than Frazier and maybe Donsunmu can be sagged off.

THE KEYS

Win against Cockburn before he gets the ball. At this stage in his career Cockburn is not going to go Ethan Happ on you if you force him to catch the ball outside the paint. Michigan doesn't have to double. They do have to focus on getting down the court fast enough to prevent Cockburn from setting up super-deep; once in the half-court they'll have to be wary of Illinois's many low-post screens that work to get Cockburn in catch-and-finish range.

The corollary here is that Castleton minutes cannot come against Cockburn, and that Michigan might think about resting Teske more than they usually do so he's fresh (and foul-light) for his war against Reggae Godzilla. They might also think about completely ignoring Da'Monte Williams and bracketing Cockburn. One of the most NBA things about Michigan so far under Howard is their willingness to leave guys open if they think it gives them an advantage.

Beilein transition mode. Per Hoop-Math, Illinois is just outside the top 50 in transition attempts and 14th at converting early in the clock. Their eFG goes from 65 to 50 once you get them into the half-court. If there was ever a team that mandated the John Beilein approach to offensive rebounding and transition D—none of the former and all of the latter—this would be it.

This could be a problem. Michigan is close to dead last in the nation in transition FGAs allowed after makes (9.1%, behind just Chicago State and UNH), and while that is in part because of who they've played they were certainly vulnerable against Iowa.

Three is more than two. This is a pairing of one of the worst three-point-shooting teams in America with one of the best three-point defenses in America; on the flip side Michigan is canning 40% of their shots on high volume and Illinois is merely middle of the pack at both three-point D and preventing launches. This should be a slaughter from range.

Hit in the midrange. Illinois is going to leave Cockburn in the paint, so Teske's going to take a number of elbow jumpers; folks are going to be open for pull-ups off the pick and roll. Michigan and Illinois are mirror images here: both teams shove a lot of opponent usage into the midrange; both teams hit 40% on their own shots. A fairly large chunk of the final margin may come down to which team hits open two point jumpers.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.