THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#2 Michigan (18-1, 13-1 B1G) vs #6 Illinois (18-6, 14-4)	follicles gone but not forgotten [Patrick Barron]
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor MI
WHEN	7 PM Eastern Tuesday, March 2nd
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -7 Torvik: M –7.2
TELEVISION	ESPN PBP: Dan Shulman Analyst: Jay Bilas

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan plays for a Big Ten title tonight against the last team that could hypothetically catch them. Illinois has more or less lived up to the preseason Ayo+Kofi hype, spending most of the year nestled in the top ten of both the polls and the fancystats. But they've also been Weird Illinois, dropping some inexplicable games (vs Weird Maryland and MSU) and heading to overtime against Indiana and Nebraska. Ayo Dosunmu has developed a reputation as the Big Ten's best closer because Illinois has needed him to shut the door on… [checks notes] Northwestern?

So yeah Michigan should win this game, particularly if Dosunmu is unavailable, but the Illini provide a different challenge than OSU and Iowa and Michigan must rise to meet it. Kofi Cockburn is the final boss for Hunter Dickinson's suddenly surging defense, and Illinois brings a lot of defensive expertise to the table as well.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Franz gets a hat! He's snuck into the tail end of the KPOY rankings. We have also given Phil Martelli Juwan Howard a star.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Dosunmu, who's kind of a big deal, has missed the last two games after MSU's Mady Sissoko broke his nose on a foul that was incredibly not called on the floor but was a flagrant two and an ejection on review. We're assuming Dosunmu is going to play. If he doesn't those minutes will go to Andre Curbelo and Jacob Grandison.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

TUFF with two Fs [Campredon]

Junior guard Ayo Dosunmu is Illinois's alpha dog and one of the best players in the country. He has the injury issue described above. The latest is no update at all:

Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmu remains “day to day” with a facial injury. Underwood offered no updates Monday on the Illini’s leading scorer, who was injured nearly a week ago against Michigan State, and Illinois has not provided details on the extent of his injury.

The Illinois 24/7 site is reporting that "talk around the team indicates that he feels ready to go" but he has not been cleared yet. We're going to forge ahead like he's available because he's kind of a big deal. [Ed-Ace: He's been strategically photographed going through pregame warmups. Looks like a go, probably with a mask.]

Last year Dosunmu evolved from a promising but transition-dependent meep meep guy into a true college lead guard. His underlying numbers didn't change much, but his impact did. As a freshman Illinois was no better with Dosunmu on the court than off. A year later Illinois was 0.10 PPP better on offense, with a six-point eFG bump. His personal efficiency remained meh largely because his TO rate remained relatively elevated and he shot 29% from three—the latter is the main reason he's still kicking around Champaign.

Thus Dosunmu's 2020-21 Naismith/KPOY campaign. Dosunmu is dominating the ball for the Illini while adding efficiency. His usage is scraping the Carsen Edwards range; his assist rate has shot up ten points and is now just outside the top 50 nationally; he's getting to the line 50% more often; he's shooting 40% from 3.

Dosunmu can be contained for long stretches, though. He remains right-hand dominant to the point where most teams are happy to show him onto his left and live with the consequences. He'd been up-and-down prior to the injury, checking in with sub-100 ORTGs in three of his last six games thanks to a spate of turnovers and a lot of midrange jumpers. 80% of Dosunmu's shots come inside the arc and half of those are midrangers. He's solid (38%) on those but Dosunmu frequently puts his head down and decides his drive is going to end up in a shot no matter where it ends up on the floor. Michigan's drop coverage—and Dickinson's ability to switch on to guards late in the clock—could entice him into a lot of middling opportunities.

Dosunmu's the kind of guy who can go win games like that… but probably not against the #2 team in the country. 

Cockburn gets this face a lot [Campredon]

Kofi Cockburn is the other Illini star. In a league of giant people playing center Cockburn stands out as the most mountainous. He's currently listed at 285 and looks every bit of it. Cockburn's game is about what you'd expect from a guy who spends his offseasons fighting Mothra:

Cockburn has a whopping 59 dunks on the year. That leads the nation. He's one of just seven players with more than 40.

In addition to putting up a bunch of shots, Cockburn goes to the line a ton. He's 20th nationally in FT rate and 6th in drawing fouls. Now, some of this is because free throw shooting is one of his two main weaknesses. It felt unfair that the giant who picked up a basketball a couple years ago hit 67% from the line last year; his current rate of 57% is more in line with reasonable expectations.

Cockburn's other weakness is that he is probably the country's biggest black hole. Cockburn's assist rate is currently 1.0; he has three assists on the season. You can double him with impunity. This isn't as much of an advantage as you might think because Cockburn specializes in getting Mariana-Trench-deep post position. A double can only do so much against one dribble, tops. So Cockburn doesn't suffer in the TO rate department like someone like Hunter Dickinson—who posts up from all over the court and will take several dribbles if necessary—would if he essentially never passed.

But yeah he's a 27% usage guy shooting 67% from the floor with a 15.4 OREB rate, which is 20th nationally. Dickinson is suddenly erasing Luka Garza and Trayce Jackson-Davis, but even he might not be able to hold his spot against Cockburn.

The rest of Illinois's starters are low usage guys on the Just A Shooter spectrum. Senior Trent Frazier is the most familiar; he's bounced back from a very bad no-good junior year when he hit just 35/30 from the floor. He's back up to 39% from 3 this year and has shifted more of his usage to those efficient threes and FTs he hits at a 82% clip. Some of this improvement is attributable to the two stars, who are setting him up with better shots. Frazier's seen his rate of unassisted threes dip significantly.

Freshman Adam Miller came in with near five-star rankings (#33 in the composite) and has slotted into the starting lineup but hasn't lit the world on fire just yet. He's shooting 49/34 from the floor with about 70% of his shots from three and does nothing else statistically. He doesn't get to the rim, and virtually all of his threes are assisted. A 4.7 assist rate isn't far off of Cockburn's. He's freshman year Zak Irvin, except his hit rate from deep is meh.

Finally, wing Da'Monte Williams has one of the weirder statistical profiles you'll see. He's got single digit usage in Matt Vogrich territory; he's shooting 55% on 49 threes and 61% from the line. Prior to this season was shooting 27% on 122 career threes. Fluke probability: high. Time to get shot off: also high.

Williams doesn't do a whole lot else other than hit the defensive boards. He does have elevated TO and FT rates but since his usage is so low those are still rare events. For example, Williams has the sixth-highest FT rate in Big Ten play… and is averaging under 2 FTAs per game.

Williams was still getting 20 MPG despite that usage and shooting, so yup he's the defensive stopper. Prepare for Don Brown press conference nostalgia:

CHAMPAIGN — Da’Monte Williams has not scored a point in 2020, but Illinois coach Brad Underwood knows how valuable the 6-foot-3 guard from Peoria is for the men’s basketball team.

After Illinois defeated Minnesota 59-51, sealing its seventh straight Big Ten victory, Underwood sauntered into the locker room, walked up to Williams and planted a kiss right on Williams’ forehead.

“When you look at our stat sheets a lot of times, you maybe don’t see the most glaring numbers for Da’Monte,” Underwood said. “I told him in the locker room, ‘I won’t kiss my wife tonight because I’m going to kiss you.’ And I kissed him right on the forehead.”

…I think you can still kiss your wife though?

Illinois goes nine deep. The bench:

• Giorgi Bezhanishvili is the backup 5—Illinois now almost never plays him with Cockburn. Bezhanishvili is a 6'9", below-the-rim center with the ability to shoot out to 10-12 feet. He's not a rim protector and his presence costs Illinois five point of OREB rate and about four points of 2P%. He has a lot less gravity than Cockburn and has struggled significantly this year.
• PG Andre Curbelo is another touted freshman. He is far more dynamic—and far wilder—than Miller. At his best he slithers through the lane and dumps the ball off so his teammates can dunk it. He's already got a top 25 assist rate (36!) as a true freshman. At his worst he's tossing up bricks from distance(16% from three) and chucking the ball to opponents (a 28 TO rate). This adds up to a sub-100 ORTG, and the TOs are not waning as the season progresses. Look out next year, though.
• Wing Jacob Grandison is a Holy Cross transfer and is the most efficient bench option, shooting 56/42 and maintaining that efficiency in Big Ten play. He's grabbing some OREBs and has a reasonable assist rate as well; he's getting more and more run as the season goes along. He's started a few games of late.
• Freshman Coleman Hawkins is one of those beanpole 6'10" guys who are a 4 or a 5 depending on the needs of the team. He's getting a handful of minutes a game and getting a bucket or two.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Illinois has some similarities with Michigan. Conference numbers: 

Left: offense, right defense

 

This is the second-best eFG offense and defense in the conference; in both cases they are runner-up to M. They also prevent threees and assists like Michigan. On the other hand, their rebounding is tops in the conference and Michigan comes in fourth in both categories. Both teams have some turnover issues—Illinois is actually 308th at forcing them nationally despite coming in 8th in the league—but Michigan has recently started improving their tendency to toss the ball to the other team; Illinois has not.

THE KEYS

Man versus nature. Well yeah, it's the Big Ten in 2021. A post matchup between two of the best centers in the country is going to be pretty important. Hunter Dickinson is fresh off holding Luka Garza and Trayce Jackson-Davis to a combined 8/29 from two—and ~half of those buckets were against Austin Davis or Brandon Johns. Kofi Cockburn is shooting 67% from the floor in Big Ten play and never passes the ball.

I kind of think that Cockburn is going to get his when he gets an entry because his game is based on sheer physical power and Dickinson's ability to move and wall up won't be quite as effective as it has been on the other end. Michigan will have to do some work on the perimeter to prevent efficient entries.

On the other end of the floor Dickinson has been slipping back to the pack after starting off ludicrously hot. Teams have him scouted now and he's finding it more diffcult to ram his way to the rim, so an increasing number of his shots are tougher hooks. I'd expect more of the same. Luka Garza had a reasonably good game against Cockburn (8/15 from two, no TOs); Trevion Williams was 7/14. Dickinson has more size than both but less time in the trenches and no personal experience against Cockburn.

Ayo status. I mean, obviously. Also:

Checking Ayo. Michigan has bodies to throw at him: Livers, Wagner, and Brown are all good bets to stay in front and force Ayo to shoot over length. Teams with big, athletic wings like Maryland, MSU, and Purdue have given him trouble, albeit in different ways. Purdue kept him away from the rim; MSU and Maryland were able to induce poor shooting performances there. Michigan should be able to do something similar.

[Campredon]

Dip into that playbook. Another way in which these two teams are similar: they push a ton of opponent usage into the midrange. They're 1 and 2 in the league, with Illinois leading the way. If Illinois is going to be able to play Dickinson straight up Michigan's going to have to generate good shots in a way other than "skip pass directly to wide open three." The good news is that Michigan does this a ton.

It'll be more important than usual to have Michigan's sets put guys like Wagner in advantageous positions; straight line drives are not going to be available much and not drawing help against this defense means you're going to be taking midrange shots with little chance of an OREB.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.