For all the moaning about some of the recent misses on the recruiting trail, Juwan Howard just secured his third 4-star of the 2021 cycle when Frankie Collins announced his commitment to Michigan tonight. Collins joins 4-star wing Kobe Bufkin, 4-star wing Isaiah Barnes and 3-star big Will Tschetter to give Michigan a top 5 class in America on the heels of a top 15 haul in 2020. Back to back classes in the 5-15 range met with complaints seems indicative of just how much Juwan Howard has raised Michigan’s recruiting profile. 

Rivals	ESPN	247	Endless Motor
4*, #69 overall, #12 PG	4*, #42 overall, #7 PG, #3 NV	4*, #78 overall, #10 PG, #4 NV	4* PG, #60-80 overall

There is consensus on Collins as a 4-star prospect, with ESPN being a bit more bullish in relation to the remaining services. All four services list Frankie at 6’1, in the 175–180 pound range. I’m generally a stickler regarding height, so this must have been pure laziness on my behalf when generating the profile. But Collins is likely a legit 5’10 and perhaps 5’11 if we’re being generous based on the eye test. 

Note – I haven’t taken up the task of individual player rankings yet with AAU events just now tipping off over the last month and change. I need live evaluation opportunities against legit competition on a relatively level playing field in order to adequately rank hundreds of prospects. I am comfortable issuing a general star ranking/tiered structure as indicated above. In more simplistic terminology, I’d probably have Collins in the 60 - 80 range overall pending more detailed live viewings.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

SCOUTING

No doubt about it, this is a big pickup for the Wolverines. Frankie fills the void in this class for an on-ball lead guard that generates shots for himself and teammates in isolation or ballscreen action.

Collins is at his best as a downhill attacker off the bounce that can score at the rim or find teammates after collapsing the defense. Frankie changes speeds/direction very well with a live dribble, with superb deceleration to create space and keep his primary defender off-balance. Once he gets to the rim, he’s a solid finisher for a prospect of his stature. He’s adept at converting with the off-hand and isn’t afraid to get into the opposing big’s chest to negate shotblocking when jumping off two legs. 

While Collins’ scoring ability is impressive on its own merit, his ability as a playmaker for others is exactly what this roster needs. Frankie beats his primary defender at a pretty high clip and displays impressive vision in finding bigs on dumpoffs once the help defense arrives as evidenced by his 24.4 assist % during the 2019 Adidas Gauntlet. That while playing a year up in the 17u division. He fits precision dimes in tight windows for easy buckets and has a unique ability to dish out accurate one-hand passes with his left in order to avoid the extra time associated with gathering the ball with both hands. 

Perimeter shotmaking is the biggest question mark for the Las Vegas native. The shot mechanics aren’t great, but not broken by any means. His off-hand placement is on top of the ball rather than on the side, and he doesn’t get a ton of elevation in the lower body either. That said, the shot doesn’t look bad. Frankie gets good arch and there isn’t a ton of extra motion on his shot.  He displays the ability to hit pull-ups from midrange, which isn’t typically a tool for complete non-shooters. Still, the low volume of jumpshots here suggests Collins may need development in that area but the jury is still out. 

Physically, Frankie is a bit undersized but is a plus athlete overall. He’s above average in terms of lateral agility, first-step acceleration, straight line speed and strength. He’s got some pop as a leaper, particularly when elevating off two feet. His athletic ability will suit him just fine offensively, but he may run into some trouble on the other end depending on the matchup.

Defensively, Collins is likely to defend the opposition’s smallest on-ball guard exclusively. He slides his feet at the point of attack and should be able to stay in front of the average B10 guard. But as we’ve seen with Xavier Simpson, even players with outstanding lateral agility are prone to get blown by or bullied when presented with shiftiness and/or legit size. Inherent physical traits matter, and you can expect Frankie to get picked on a bit in certain matchups. 

Third party scouting reports on Frankie are rather scant for a prospect of his caliber that suits up for a prominent shoe-circuit club (Dream Vision/Adidas Sponsored) during the Summer. Rivals’ Eric Bossi is enamored with the playmaking ability as well:

“A driver who sets up teammates, defends well and plays above the rim, Collins is a high octane guy who has been a steady performer.”

In May 2019, Bossi appreciated the combination of athleticism and physicality during a Compton Magic event:

Collins is athletic, tough and gives it to you on both ends of the floor. He has no fear as a driver who seeks contact and makes toughness plays for himself and others at the rim. Defensively, he will sit down and make life difficult.

The evaluation from 247 in April of 2019 was a bit of a head-scratcher, with high praise for his physical profile and versatility at the guard spot:

Collins raised his profile this weekend after showing his impressive versatility for the position. He has good size and length for the position, is a high-level passer, plays at his own pace, an improving shooter/scorer especially from midrange and in and also is a plus defender due to his length, feel and quickness.

OFFERS

Frankie chose Michigan over remaining finalists Kansas, Arizona State, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Auburn, USC and New Mexico. Collins also reeled in offers from Oklahoma, TCU, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Minnesota and others. 

HIGH SCHOOL

Frankie will attend Coronado HS (NV) for his senior year, home of 2021 5-star Jaden Hardy. While I think the chances of landing Hardy are less than 5%, this development certainly cannot hurt. 

STATS

Collins put up 13.9 points and 6.2 assists per contest during his junior year at Arizona Compass Prep. 

VIDEO

2019-20 Season Highlights:

2019-20 Mixtape:

2019 Big Time Vegas AAU Highlights:

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

It is not entirely clear whether Michigan is done taking on-ball types this cycle, but Collins is going to have a chance to crack the rotation as a freshman. At this point the roster features only two primary half-court shot creators in Zeb Jackson and Kobe Bufkin for 2021, so Frankie may find himself as a third guard if he can hold his own defensively while grasping the playbook.  

In any event, Collins will be ready to compete from a physical standpoint the day he steps on campus and I’d expect him to become a legit rotational piece as an underclassmen under most circumstances. 

His projected role is clearly defined as an on-ball guard that runs pick and roll sets at a high rate. Frankie’s biggest value to the team will be setting the table for bigs/wings with dumpoffs/lobs/kickouts after breaking down the opposition with dribble penetration. Hunter Dickinson, in particular, should get a few easy baskets per game because of his ability to get two feet in the paint and compel a secondary defender. 

While I believe Collins’ optimal role for Michigan is a creator for others, I do expect him to bring some scoring punch as well. He’s relentless attacking the paint, doesn’t shy away from contact and is a solid finisher for his size. Considering that playstyle, he’s going to draw fouls at a reasonable clip and convert his fair share of layup attempts in both the half-court and transition. 

The biggest wildcard here is the jumper. While the low volume of attempts and slight mechanical quirks suggest there is some work to be done before Frankie is an average shooter, I think the eye test gives reason for optimism. For the most part, guards/wings simply don’t attempt pull-ups unless there is a certain level of confidence the shot will go in. Collins’ mechanics aren’t broken, the arch is good and his release isn’t overly slow. 

Once he settles into a starting role where he’s on the court for 25+ minutes per game, a reasonable expectation for Collins is probably in the 10-13 PPG range while dishing out 3-5 assists per contest. 

Frankie is a solid defender at the point of attack, but there are always going to be some issues on the defensive end with guards that stand below 6-foot. There will be certain matchups where the opposition will hunt Collins because he lacks the size to prevent the opposition from walking him to the rim or simply shooting over him. For the most part he’ll be fine, but Ayo Dosunmu types will probably give him the business. 

My archetype for Collins is poor man’s version of former Texas standout D.J. Augustin. Both players have a similar physical profile, shiftiness off the bounce and good playmaking ability. The biggest distinction is Augustin was a much better perimeter shotmaker at the same stage. If Frankie can shoot a respectable 31-34% from beyond the arch, I think he’s going to be a very good player in the B10 that helps Michigan win a ton of games. He’s a multi-year college player with a high-floor that doesn’t possess physical attributes that will attract the NBA as an underclassmen. These are the type of “return value” players that help college programs have sustained success. 

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Michigan has at least 1 more available scholarship, with 2-3 more likely. With a bonafide lead guard in the mix, the priority now shifts to landing a legit center. Beyond that, Juwan Howard is shooting for the stars with remaining scholarships. The Wolverines are squarely in the mix for 5-star forward Harrison Ingram and recently offered 5-star guard Hunter Sallis. If we land one of those two, or any other top 25 prospect for that matter, the Wolverines have a legit shot at reeling in a top 3 class in the country.