Hoops Column: Jims + Joes Edition
After roughly a month of defensive improvement, Michigan came crashing back to earth in a loss against Illinois yesterday. Brad Underwood's team put on an offensive clinic that Phil Martelli and staff seemingly had no answer for.
You may recall Brian's column from a year ago entitled The Book, which more or less conveys a schematic/personnel adjustment to bottle up a certain player/play-type that becomes a blueprint moving forward.
So what does The Book look like against Michigan? Let's take a look below.
Trap Coverage
Early on in the game, Michigan went with trap coverage against a side ballscreen from Frazier/Kofi. Eli makes a great low-man rotation to beat Kofi to the spot before the catch. That forces Cockburn to swing-through, allowing Diabate to give help. But it simply doesn't matter because a 5'11 low man isn't going to deter a legit seven-footer.
Icing Ballscreens
After Illinois easily handled the trap approach, the Wolverines started having their guards ice ballscreens in an attempt to blow-up the ballscreen game entirely.
As you can see in the clip above, Plummer simply blows by Eli with one dribble before pulling up and hitting a triple.
Next up, Jones attempts to ice a ballscreen. But as soon as Frazier sees DeVante commit to that strategy, he uses his momentum against him and shifts gears to leave Jones in the background. Illinois plays around-the-world before connecting on a corner three.
Drop Coverage
Late in the first half the coaching staff opted for pure drop coverage, but that didn't produce the desired outcome either. Kofi sets a great screen on Jones and he simply cannot re-engage with Frazier so Hunter is forced to deter an otherwise open layup. The result is a functional assist, as there is simply no way DeVante is going to prevent Kofi from collecting the offensive rebound + finish.
[AFTER THE JUMP, more matchup problems + what does it mean for the future?]
Seals
To end the first half and into the second, Illinois simplified things. Underwood relied on the sheer size of Payne/Cockburn to create massive gaps as a lead blocker so that his guards/wings had uncontested finishes.
Isolation
Illinois was toying with Michigan at certain points. Andre Curbelo took 10 dribbles (!) after crossing half court, didn't pass the ball once, without any weakside action, didn't use the screen from Kofi........and proceeded to score with ease against Bufkin on this possession.
Heading into yesterday's game, Curbelo was generating .51ppp on 88 ballscreens this season. Against Michigan, the sophomore guard generated 1.25ppp on 8 ballscreens.
So What Is The Book?
In simple terms, Michigan has an exploitable backcourt since both starters are sub 6' and don't possess ideal athleticism given their lack of size. Against average teams, this may not manifest because the opposition doesn't possess the caliber of player to expose it.
But Illinois is The Book. Their guards are exponentially quicker, hit pull-ups and have some shiftiness off the bounce. Throw in the college version of Shaq, and it makes trapping/blitzing/switching impossible since Kofi will undoubtedly punish a sub 6' defender.
In short, there are no sustainable solutions for this Michigan team against this Illinois team. In a seven-game playoff series, Michigan might win one and perhaps two games, if lucky. This matchup is about Jims and Joes.
So What Does It Mean Moving Forward
Illinois is really the only team in the B10 with lightning-quick guards + nice pull-up games coupled with a superior big in relation to Dickinson.
Michigan State doesn't have the requisite backcourt in Walker/Hoggard and certainly not with a Bingham/Marble/Hauser frontcourt. Iowa is a favorable matchup since that team doesn't possess size/athleticism in the backcourt and no longer has a Garza-like behemoth. The Buckeyes have an undersized frontcourt, with Branham being the only real matchup problem on the perimeter.
In Sum, Michigan matches up fairly well with the three remaining opponents to close out the regular season. That doesn't necessarily mean the Wolverines will reel-off three straight, but these are the sort of games where scheme and perimeter shooting variance will play a larger role.
What About The Future?
While Frankie Collins and Dug McDaniel are both undersized, both are considerable upgrades in terms of agility and overall athleticism.
Although it's just a flash, look how much more difficult it is for Plummer to get space against Frankie. Collins beats him to the spot on two different occasions and Plummer has to use the off-arm to discard him. Once Frankie adds a bit more strength, that will result in a forced charge or simply bumping Plummer off his spot.
As for Dug, he will be the fastest player on the roster next season. He'll be a long ways from ready, as the opposition will simply walk him to the rim based on sheer strength advantage. But Michigan probably doesn't need him much next season barring injury. Year two should see him make considerable strength gains where he can better optimize his agility and active hands.
The ideal outcome is a UConn/Lousiville-like backcourt, where Collins/McDaniel are able to apply relentless ball pressure and keep opposing guards in front of them and blow-up plays via steals and havoc in general.
February 28th, 2022 at 5:39 PM ^
Great analysis, sometimes the matchup doesn't work.
Hopefully Michigan can find a way to win two of the next three.
February 28th, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
Thanks for the clear analysis—and hint of hope.
February 28th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
Matt, speaking of next year and point guard, what do you think the odds are of the coaches looking to bring in another transfer point guard in the off season? I like Collins' potential, but he seems a long way off from being ready to start.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^
Staff won't know how many roster slots, if any, are available until potential early entry decisions are made.
But we must remember, X Simpson looked pretty rough as a freshman before looking very adequate as a sophomore.
February 28th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
Interested in your comment about not needing Dug much next year. I've seen a few places that Jones is gone. That leaves Frankie and Dug as the only PGs on the roster. Maybe Bufkin can play point in a pinch? That leaves grad transfer or Dug as a backup.
How could Jones not be gone? He's a grad transfer. Did he get a second grad year due to covid? Please explain.
Yes, I believe when Jones transferred over he technically had two years of eligibility although every comment at the time indicated it was just a one and done situation. So I believe it's possible but very, very unlikely he comes back.
February 28th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
Wow, love this piece. Thanks much. I can see things improving with speed, agility, athleticism in the backcourt next year.
However, I'm really wondering about who will replace Hunter Dickinson. I mean, in some ways, if his skills don't translate well to the NBA, and he can make enough from NIL, he'd be better off staying at Michigan again for 2022 - 2023. But everything I've ever heard says he's gone. Faulds is obviously a stopgap measure. Tschetter wasn't good enough to see the floor this year, and is really a forward. Taris Reed will be a raw freshman. And I doubt we'll see a big come through the portal. We'll see what happens.
February 28th, 2022 at 9:02 PM ^
I think a big from the portal is a given unless they lock Diabate in his room.
February 28th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
Watching the game, it was hard to understand how IL ever manages to lose!
Also, glad to see you observe that Eli is under 6 foot, a poster absorbed some ridicule for saying that a while back, with other posters insisting that he is at least 6 foot 2...
February 28th, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^
Illinois has very good college guards, but our lack of speed/agility in the backcourt makes it look better than it would otherwise.
February 28th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
Curbelo mighta palmed the ball three times on that isolation play.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:05 PM ^
They torched us in Crisler last year too, and we had a strong defensive unit. Their guards are super springy and can shoot lights out. How do they ever lose? Amazing that we had their lead down to two points at the end.
They had 28 points in the first 28 minutes at Rutgers because Rutgers can switch ball screens with most guys on the floor, they're more experienced and hence better organized with help, and they have an athletic rim protector in Omoruyi that can blitz ball screens, he can switch, he can drop.
Also, Plummer went 0-4 from three and that's just luck compared him torching us on tough shots.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:37 PM ^
I would add a couple thoughts. First, Illinois also plays mostly drop coverage with Kofi. Watch how their guards fight around and thru screens compared to ours. Eli is okay, but Jones and Bufkin get swallowed by screens sometimes and it puts Hunter into a tough spot. Last year with Smiths quickness, Eli's effort, Chaundee strength, and Franz length it was easier to be successful on drop coverage because Hunter had to defend less space for less time.
That being said, with the way Illinois plays and Michigan's deficiencies I truly think we need to flop more. I am sure that goes against Juwan's DNA, but when those guys fight around a screen or Kofi pushes people out of the way on either end of the court I think you need to flop sometimes, get the gullible B10 refs to call it, and then ILL has to think twice.
Speaking of Kofi, I think two of those plays should have been called as moving screens. You can't spread your feet apart and move to push a defender from where he's trying to go. I don't think the refs know how to officiate these giant bigs. That crap drives me nuts. I also think Kofi, Hunter, and Edey get hacked a lot more than they the number of FTs they shoot.
February 28th, 2022 at 9:30 PM ^
Yeah we probably should flop more. But Kofi shoved Johns to the ground once and there was no call so who knows.
February 28th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^
I see Michigan playing tight and struggling to shoot tomorrow with so much on the line. Sparty, on the other hand, is comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field and out of contention for a B1G title so they'll play loose and probably make everything.
February 28th, 2022 at 8:01 PM ^
After tasting the chili, it needed more zone and a pinch of Jace.
Article was spot on though, shouldn't have to deal with this type of match-up for the remaining games.
Except Lidell will torch Dickinson again. Hunter provides not much resistance to the athletic big like EJ. Kofi is a better matchup, he just hit a few too many mediocre shots Sunday.
February 28th, 2022 at 8:01 PM ^
This appears far more of a Dickinson/big problem than a guard problem but also there's a decent amount of focus/effort issues that are correctable. Agree that given the guard and Dickinson limitations, this matchup against this Illinois is brutal.
The first clip of Plummer "blowing by" Eli? Eli is icing the screen which means his job is to push Plummer back towards the baselinee to keep him out of the middle of the court and mess with the intention of the ball screen.
He's not getting "blown by," he does exactly what he's supposed to do. He's giving up that very difficult shot to ice the screen and force baseline. Plummer makes an incredible play on the side step three. Very few guys assigned with icing that screen could stop that. And the problem is that they have to resort to icing screens in the first place.
If Hunter had the lateral quickness to be able to play up on this instead of two steps back, it wouldn't be there. But with his limitations, Michigan has to give up pull ups to guards on ball screens because Hunter can't switch or hard hedge. Blitzing is the way to beat Illinois (tough to switch with Kofi) but Hunter can't do that as we saw against MSU.
The clip of Jones icing is simply a 100 percent miscommunication. Jones doesn't attempt to ice it, he successfully does but look how Johns also jumps out to hard hedge. Whoops, one of the two got the call wrong.
If Jones has the play call correct here, it again means he wants to funnel Frazier the way he indeed goes and Johns needs to be there behind the play (the way Dickinson is dropping to that side of the screen when Eli ices but he can't play up enough to contest Plummers three). It's unclear who made the mistake here. Since Johns can hedge / switch, it's possible that was the play and Jones made the mistake or it's possible Johns didn't know the coverage but this is a correctable focus/mental mistake.
The seals are all fully on the bigs. You simply can't get sealed. If you do, there's very little the guard can do to prevent the ball handler from using that as a screen. I commented on it yesterday but Hunter had an off day with his focus.
This play isn't even a seal, but it does show Michigan's wing and front court limitations. Houstan gets burned on the close out and Hunter who is not sealed here needs to slide over and protect the rim but he doesn't even try. Last year, our wings wouldn't have allowed this penetration but this year, there's a lot more opportunities to protect the rim that Hunter can't meet:
This one was infuriating to me live: 
you can't expect Bufkin to stay with this given how Curbello sets it up. He has to trail. Hunter must help out on this. There's' nothing in his way. Take a step back and protect the damn rim.
Alas, I don't even know what to say here. He's literally just pushing Kofi into Bufkin's way instead of helping:
The Book on Michigan is to attack the guy who is so limited on defense that he's not an NBA radars despite being an offensive prodigy as much as possible. He's actually been decent in the last couple weeks. But he had an off day. Something was up with his energy.
On the trap, Michigan gets Illinois exactly where they want them. But Hunter - the first line of defense - let's the guy pass out of the trap. There's no reason for Hunter to have both hands up there. His right arm needs to be playing the ball. Still, the primary culprit is Eli. The way to defend a 7 foot ogre when you're 5'11 is get in the passing lane.
He needs to get between the ball and Kofi the moment Hunter helps, right now:
but he shuffles and goes too late so he can't intercept/prevent the pass he can only stand under and watch.
February 28th, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
Nice breakdown of these plays!
February 28th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^
Great post.
As I have stated previously/elsewhere Michigan does not have the personnel to play man-and Hunter is at the top of that list...he is just plain god-awful. I fault the coaches for not making this a zone team-because it is their only viable option.
Yeah, I've liked the zone recently. I think they went away from it in the second half because they were scared of threes but they needed to just say, look, that kind of three point shooting isn't sustainable we have to take our chances. And they went to it late and forced some misses (a long two from Curbello and a three from Grandison), unfortunately, Illinois got a couple OREBs on them.
February 28th, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^
Yeah I’m going to go ahead and disagree with most of this:
1) Sure, your job in icing is to prevent the ballscreen. However, that does not absolve Brooks from staying with Plummer, particularly when you’re only tasked with defending one side of the court at that point. He created 3 feet of separation with one dribble. That’s a blow by. Point blank. Can’t allow that type of space for a potent shooter.
2) Frazier doesn’t even attempt to use the ballscreen once he sees Jones lifting to ice, then shifts gears for a blow by. Jones tried to ice, but Frazier had other ideas. Communication was irrelevant
3) Seals are not fully on the bigs - if you prevent a seal by playing behind Kofi, you are inviting an easy entry pass + post up where he buries you under the rim. If you front, then you’re at risk of getting sealed. It’s a team effort with no easy solution when dealing with a giant.
4) No, Hunter can’t help there on Curbelo. If he does it’s an automatic assist where Kofi gets an offensive rebound + putback. That EXACT scenario played out this game in the first half.
Functionally what you’re doing is placing blame on Dickinson because he can’t check two in Ballscreens.
But that seems a bit perplexing given our guards can’t defend a single player in isolation.
In my opinion, Houstan/Jones/Brooks are the biggest culprits in Michigan’s decline defensively. Hunter shares some blame of course, but he’s not the primary reason.
February 28th, 2022 at 10:12 PM ^
In (2), if the call is to ice the screen, then Johns is wildly out of position and it's relevant. Johns has got to be in between the ball handler and the basket and there he is not even between the screener and the basket, let alone the ball handler. Johns looks like he's hedging. If he had the call at all he'd have stayed back and at least have a chance to alter Frazier's path. Even if Jones did go early, there is no reason for Johns to be out that far on Kofi .
February 28th, 2022 at 10:38 PM ^
Matt, I just don't know how Hunter can be defended as not a major, even the major, issue on the defensive front. He is so slow-so lacking in lateral agility and he gets bullied by centers his size in every possible way. He brings so little value here. It is nice that he has broadened his offensive skill set very nicely but on the other end he gives up uncontested shots-of the oppositions choosing. This is my complaint about this coaching staff-here, it's their job to put him in a position to succeed...and they are not doing it.
Agree. Hunter provides almost nothing defensively around the rim. It's unbelievable how easily smaller players get up shots.
February 28th, 2022 at 10:57 PM ^
EDIT: Some of that I agree with, most we'll agree to disagree.
1) Asking a guy to both ice a screen and defend the ball handler going the other way, i.e. single-handedly blow up a ball screen with zero help from the guy defending the screener is a nearly impossible task. That's why almost no one plays ball screens this way. Can a super elite guy do it? Yes, but very very few college guards could do what you're asking. Michigan's guards are not super elite so if that's your point, I agree.
Here, it's not the dribble that makes the separation. This screenshot is after Eli jumps to his right to beat Plummer to the screen and before Plummer even takes a dribble the other way:
Pretty much all that icing does is switch the direction of the play (Michigan is doing it to try to keep the ball handlers out of the middle of the court where they have more passing options) but to do so the guard has to beat the ball handler over the screen which necessarily puts him behind going the other way. Again, an elite guy could probably recover from this or if Hunter could provide any resistance, he could take a step forward but as it is, Michigan is giving up pull ups on ball screens and Eli made a good effort to contest. This is was just an extremely tough make:
2) This is similar. Does Jones lift too far too early here? Maybe, but again it takes an elite talent to first let the ball handler go in the direction of the screen and still beat him to the spot to ice it.
The reason the miscommunication is very relevant is that if Jones has the call correct, Johns should be on that side waiting for Frazier (the way Hunter is above but Johns could play it tighter) and then Bufkin doesn't have to help. As it us, both guys took themselves out of the play. Or if it was Jones that had the call wrong, then it's simply a mental error and he never should have been icing in the first place. You have Johns in the game, let him blitz the screen because he can.
3) Yes, I agree it's a team on a case by case basis and was wrong to suggest it's all on the bigs. But watching the plays you clipped, it looked like Hunter got caught a few times out of position and Kofi put him on his hip. I'm also generally in disagreement with fronting Kofi. Hunter is big enough to keep him away from the basket and I think you live with 8 foot hooks instead of passes over the top and dunks. If Hunter is making the decisions to front him especially 12+ feet from the basket like on some of these seals, that's a big mistake. If it's the coaches call, fine that's an RPS thing I suppose.
4) I agree that a lot of the actual isos are primarily on the perimeter defender. Houstan got burned and that makes him mostly responsible for that play, but the big has to protect the rim and try to mitigate damage.
The Bufkin play though isn't even iso. Kofi is setting ball screens and rescreens the whole time. The announcer even calls the play as such: "Curbello in, using the screen." Kofi is not posting. He is not looking for the ball. He's setting ball screens. So Hunter needs to play it accordingly. Of course he needs to help (either by hedging or dropping).
I am not asking Hunter to guard two guys in a ball screen. I am asking him to do his job and hedge or drop on the one guy that has the ball. You are suggesting that he guard a guy setting a screen while letting the ball handler have an easy layup and I am baffled.
And yes, he played it beautifully in the first half by taking Frazier and forcing the miss. The problem here is that Houstan needs to come off Curbello - who is not a good three point shooter and is a long skip pass away - to tag Kofi (while Jones switches to Curbello):
But another correctable, mental mistake because of youth.
The reasons to prevent the easy layup and defend the ball handler are myriad: he could block a shot or deflect a pass. Second, if Houstan plays this right by tagging, he can deny most passes (same with Bufkin above). Houstan can box out better than Jones did. No guarantee Kofi rebounds a Kobe assist. Could bounce back towards Hunter if it hits the front of the rim.
Michigan certainly has the problem of having mediocre to weak perimeter defense with no rim protection. And that's why they're 11th (!!!) in the conference in defense.
But to my eye, the isolation defense isn't as bad as the ball screen defense and it seems like opponents leverage ball screens to take as much advantage of Hunter as possible. Not sure if the numbers bear that out.
I agree with you big time. I think the main issues on defense are the bigs/Hunter not doing a good. I think expecting the guards to be absolutely elite defenders to cover for the bigs being really bad in all types of ball screen defense is a little much. I know others disagree, and I don't think we'll ever agree, but I think Jones and Brooks have to do way more to cover for the bigs being bad than the bigs do for the guards supposedly being bad.
The ball screen defense is really really bad and I think most of that falls on the big.
February 28th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^
I kinda think that the Illinois matchup comes down to just Kofi being a terrible matchup for Hunter. He’s now 0-3 against them.
February 28th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
Great article! I noticed the "lead blocker" stuff live and had no idea what to do about it.
One thing that did bug me though is the total lack of 3 second calls on Cockburn. In the last clip he is in the lane from 10:14 until at least 10:07. I was always told when I played that you had to get both feet out of the lane go reset the count. I can see getting to 4 or 5 seconds, but 7 is nuts.
February 28th, 2022 at 9:20 PM ^
Why don't we recruit bigger point guards?
February 28th, 2022 at 9:41 PM ^
Yeah, our guards are getting smothered
February 28th, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^
Great analysis.
I am interested to know what UM did do offensively as well since they were able to generate 1.15 ppp against a good defense despite being pretty bad from outside. It felt like Jones was able to get moving toward the rim much better than in weeks past, and Houstan showed some renewed aggressiveness hunting for shots.
February 28th, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^
Guard play is the critical element late in the season and especially post-season. Illinois had 2 5th year sharpshooters and 1 2nd year distributor. Plummer+Frazier+Curbelo put up 45 pts and 75% from 3 (9-12). Brooks+Jones+Collins put up 35 pts and 33% from 3 (2-6).
Michigan guard play has been a stew of problems this year with mediocre shooting, poor defense and too many turnovers. And it’s been nowhere close to covering for sporadic play from the 3 and 4.
Great article, Matt. I really enjoy listening to you and Brian talk hoops.
I can't help but think many of our defensive issues are personnel-related. I think you can count on some improvement from Diabate and Houstan, but that assumes they come back to school, which, I'm not optimistic.
Will the incoming freshman do much to help on D next year? Will Dug be a shooting upgrade over Frankie?
Frankie literally can't shoot at all, even his wide open misses are really, really bad, so Dug can be an absolutely terrible shooter and be the slightest upgrade. I don't think there should much expectations from either in that department. You just have to hope Houstan stays and learns how to shoot on the road, Jett is decent and Kobe finds whatever shooting touch from distance he seems to have lost since high school.
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