Admit it. You lost hope too.

Moe Wagner's talented younger brother, Franz, could hardly have had a worse-timed visit to Ann Arbor. As he flew stateside from Germany, John Beilein flew the coop to Cleveland, and Franz arrived to a welcome from his brother and a program without a head coach or any guarantee that the assistants recruiting him would still be around. His other option, continuing to play at the professional level with Alba Berlin, appeared much more stable.

While the program's top priority shifted to finding a new coach, they never let up on Franz. Once hired, Juwan Howard retained assistant Saddi Washington, who bridged the gap and spearheaded Franz's recruitment. Moe also made his preference clear—Franz had experienced playing with the big club at Alba Berlin, but Moe wanted his brother to experience college life before taking his shot at the NBA.

The momentum shifted back in Michigan's favor. Wagner eliminated all other colleges from contention save Michigan. Word soon spread that he'd submitted his financial aid paperwork, which was not a guarantee he'd sign but pointed in that direction. By all appearances, his dad tipped the pick on the UMHoops message board to ease fans' minds heading into the Fourth of July. Finally, yesterday, Franz announced on Instagram: "I am extremely excited to announce that I have committed to the University of Michigan. Ann Arbor, I can’t wait."

With that, Howard not only picked up a legacy as his first signee, he added a surefire freshman starter with a skillset this year's team needed—a sweet-shooting wing with potential first-round talent. While Wagner won't be on campus until the fall, he's got a good excuse; with Howard's blessing, he'll represent Germany in the U18 European Championships, which run from July 27th to August 4th and will be live-streamed for free on FIBA's official YouTube channel.

Wagner is young enough that he's still growing. After playing at 6'7" last year, he's rumored to have reached 6'8" or perhaps even 6'9" while weighing around 205 pounds. Unlike Moe, however, Franz is very much a wing; depending upon how Howard deploys his players, Wagner could see time at any position from the two to the four.

GURU RATINGS

None, since the recruiting services don't cover Germany. 247's Evan Daniels gave an approximate landing spot if Wagner had been given a rating:

This is a massive pickup for Juwan Howard not only for how good of a player he is, but he is also a tremendous talent. ... In terms of Franz's game, he was a kid that was playing up in a terrific league. He's got good size for the position. He's a natural scorer, he's a good athlete. He's a shotmaker. I think he brings a lot of talent to the table. This is equivalent to a high four-star type pickup if he was in the states. He's an impressive get.

That'd put him in the 30-50 range overall, right around—perhaps a bit higher than—where the experts ranked Iggy Brazdeikis (#40 in the composite) last year.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

SCOUTING

Unlike his older brother, who wasn't on the NBA Draft radar until his breakout at Michigan, Franz caught the eye of draft gurus well before college. Last November, FloHoops placed Wagner among the top three prospects in a "loaded" and "stacked" 2001 birth year class of European players. Their 2000 list, the main feature of that article, had France's Sekou Doumbaya on top, and he was the first international player off the board in this year's NBA Draft.

Wagner picked up attention as soon as Alba Berlin got into league play last year, scoring 12 points in ten minutes in their BBL opener while displaying good basketball instincts, a smooth and quick release, and active defense:

Franz Wagner with 12 points and 3 steals in Alba Berlin's first BBL game of the season. Making shots, getting out in transition & active on D. Has a super high ceiling and keeps getting better. pic.twitter.com/N7jmgz6HZv

— NBADraftProspects (@draftprosnba) September 29, 2018

After that game, ESPN draft analyst Mike Schmitz said Wagner "is a promising prospect with shooting touch, a strong feel for the game, & physical upside."

Former Wolverine and current Fox Sports Detroit analyst Tim McCormick caught Wagner at last year's NBA Players Association Top 100 camp, noting the strengths of his game and the benefit of playing against pros in Europe at such a young age:

“I was really impressed,” McCormick said of Wagner in an interview with TMI’s Sam Webb. “He’s a lot different player than Mo. Six-foot-7, very skilled, a deep shooter and I loved his potential.”

McCormick detailed his conversation he had with Wagner, as they discussed Wagner’s experience playing against professionals in Europe.

“We had a conversation on Friday and I asked him about that topic: the maturity of his game. And he said that when you play international basketball, you’re put on a team with grown men and you have to wait your turn to have a chance to go out and contribute. He said the benefit of that is that you get a maturity from watching players in the way they handle their business,” McCormick said of his talk with Wagner.

The Stepien posted a free, detailed scouting report on Wagner a few months ago in naming him one of the top two wings/forwards in his class whose speciality is operating off the ball. The author, who noted his timing mechanism may be flawed, clocked Wagner's shot release as over a tenth of a second faster than Klay Thompson's before highlighting the shot mechanics that make his shot so quick and repeatable:

We shouldn’t get caught up on the 0.64 second number as it is not meant to be taken as a definitive measure. After all, it’s just a three game sample (which means around 10 jumpers) and I tend to distrust the calibration of the stopwatch on my video editing software. What is definitive though is how effective Wagner is taking and making shots before defenders close out on him.

Wagner is able to get his shot off quickly mainly due to four factors:

1. He’s extremely quick to set his feet.
2. He doesn’t bring the ball lower than his chest. This shortened dip is one of the things that allows him to get his shot off quick.
3. He has a naturally high release point. Wagner can shoot over defenders closing out on him without jumping too high.
4. He takes a short jump, as he barely needs to gain power from his legs in order for his shot to get to the rim.

There's an accompanying video:

They also noted Wagner has a very consistent release, then highlighted his ability to get to the rim off closeouts and early in the clock—reminiscent of Brazdeikis, who wasn't a break-you-off ballhandler but got a lot of points at the hoop with good timing on straight-line drives.

The whole scouting report is well worth your time. After Wagner's commitment, the author called him "the best shooter in the international 2001 class," which, yes, please. He also noted that Wagner's high level of competition should allow him to contribute immediately at Michigan.

While also focusing on his "elite" outside shooting, Dylan at UMHoops noted Wagner's high-level feel for the game allows him to be an effective finisher at the rim:

He does a great job of playing without the ball whether it is cutting, running off of screens, or even sealing his man in the post. Once he catches the ball near the rim, he’s crafty with his length to shield his shot attempts near the rim. Wagner’s feel for the game without the ball makes his shooting threat so much more dangerous.

His ability to play without the ball translates into effective finishing. Despite playing in a professional league, Wagner is shooting 62% at the basket for ALBA Berlin this year across multiple competitions. Wagner also benefits from playing heavy minutes at the two and three positions for ALBA, which allows him to seal and finisher over smaller guards.

Wagner should have a similar size advantage over many of the players defending him in the Big Ten; Michigan projects to play some huge lineups next year, especially if fellow freshman Cole Bajema is a viable option at the two. Dylan notes he's an ideal fit as an off-ball wing playing with a ball-dominant point guard like Zavier Simpson and compared him to Iowa's Joe Wieskamp, which should greatly please Brian.

OFFERS

Stanford and Butler were the two other schools that prioritized Wagner early, with Stanford even sending an assistant over to Germany, per 247. Evan Daniels added that there were "a number of schools" trying to recruit him when Beilein left the program, but even at that point Wagner had it whittled down to Michigan and Alba Berlin.

STATS

Via UMHoops:

Wagner played in 58 games across three competitions this season with Alba Berlin’s senior team. He averaged 4 points in 11.3 minutes per game and made 38% of his 3-point attempts. At Germany’s ProB level, Wagner averaged 16 points (39% 3-point shooting), 4 rebounds and 2 assists in 24 minutes per contest with SSV Lokomotive Bernau.

Those numbers with the senior team may not jump off the page, so it's important to note the context. Alba Berlin's roster featured much older players—Franz was easily the youngest in a rotation that included Derrick Walton(!) and Peyton Siva (the block was clean). Dylan provided more context by comparing Franz's pre-Michigan experience to Moe's:

While he’s only averaging 3.8 points per game for ALBA Berlin across all competitions, he’s playing a pivotal role on one of the best clubs in Germany. When Moritz came to Michigan, he played mostly with ALBA’s junior team and saw 18 minutes total with the senior side. Franz logged 616 minutes for ALBA’s senior club this year and another 211 for the ProB side, both of which are a higher level than ALBA’s junior team.

Franz is well ahead of Moe as a prospect at this stage.

VIDEO

EuroCup highlights from 2018:

Alba Berlin 2018-19 highlights:

Single-game reel of a 37-point outburst in a ProB playoff elimination game:

That shot is smooth.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Wagner is an almost certain starter and perhaps even the favorite to lead this team in scoring as the main beneficiary of Simpson's drive-and-dishes. Where he lands positionally may depend on who emerges around him. If Brandon Johns (or perhaps even Colin Castleton) aren't viable starting options at the four, Isaiah Livers soaks up most of the minutes at that spot while Wagner settles in at the three. If Eli Brooks and David DeJulius can't break out at the two, Howard may decide to play huge and put Wagner there instead, though that'd likely be less ideal defensively.

Either way, I expect Wagner will have an Iggy-like impact as a freshman, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he also ends up being a one-and-done player. His experience playing against grown men will serve him well in the transition.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Barring something completely out of left field, Michigan will carry its final two open scholarships into next season to use on what we hope will be a blockbuster 2020 class.

As for this year's team, the addition of Wagner moves the Wolverines from somewhere in the middle of the Big Ten pack to probable double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. I thought they'd be a bubble team without Wagner; with him, they could make a run at another top-four seed if one or two of last year's freshmen become steady contributors. It's hard to overstate how important this commitment was for Howard's program to start this era of Michigan basketball on the right foot.