[Patrick Barron]

Football Recruiting Reset - 2023 Hits The Stretch Run and 2024 Gets Going Comment Count

Alex.Drain October 19th, 2022 at 1:50 PM

It's been a little while since we last checked in on Michigan Football recruiting, as the swing of the season has diverted attention from the future to the present. Luckily, not much happened in the meantime, as the Wolverines went a couple months between commitments, a span of time that was snapped by Kendrick Bell's pledge earlier this week. Michigan's bye week, coming with roughly two months to go in the main period of the 2023 cycle, represents a good opportunity to check back in on recruiting. The Wolverines have held several big recruiting weekends over the course of the season and now comes crunch time for the top targets. Today I will refresh your memory with the 2023 class, talk about the remaining targets, and then move onto some early 2024 discussion. 

 

Where the 2023 Class Sits 

For this part, I'm going to go position by position and list the commits with a quick description of them, much like the recruiting board (which will be updated shortly after this piece goes up). Click on each player to go to their Hello.  

Quarterback: 0

  • Michigan does not have a QB recruit. They put all their eggs in the Dante Moore basket, struck out on that (for a variety of reasons) and now are moving onto the next big fish in 2024 

Running back: 2

  • Cole Cabana (4*): The Dexter product is one of Michigan's better recruits of the cycle, an electric RB/WR hybrid who draws comps to the likes of AJ Henning and Curtis Samuel and is as fast as it gets. Having a great senior season. 
  • Benjamin Hall (3*): Burlier back from Georgia who Michigan took surprisingly early in the cycle for a guy without much of a profile. Having a bumpy senior season that does not inspire confidence. 

Wide Receiver: 2 

  • Semaj Morgan (3*): One of the earliest commits, the West Bloomfield product is a polished slot receiver who many recruiting insiders consider to be an underrated prospect. He's a leader of this class in terms of recruiting his peers. 
  • Fredrick Moore (3*): St. Louis area outside receiver who committed in the summer. Some questions about his straight-line speed, but he accelerates well and plays the position with zest. Performing solidly as a senior. 

Tight End: 2

  • Deakon Tonielli (4*): Leapy flex TE from the Chicago area who also plays basketball. Will need to learn the blocking side of the position when he gets to Michigan. 
  • Zack Marshall (3*): California hidden gem who has loads of natural receiving talent but will need to get stronger. Plays for loaded Carlsbad HS with elite QB prospect Julian Sayin. 

Offensive Line: 2

  • Evan Link (4*), OT: DC tackle prospect surprisingly chose Michigan over PSU, has good technique and a very high floor. Insiders have been impressed with their viewings of him this fall. 
  • Amir Herring (4*), IOL: Similar high floor guard prospect from West Bloomfield, always wanted to go to Michigan and plans to enroll early.

EDGE: 3

  • Enow Etta (4*): Borderline top 100 EDGE from Texas, already has proper size for the position as a strong and long pass rusher. Should be able to contribute early in his career. 
  • Collins Acheampong (4*): Raw and athletic CA prospect originally from Ghana, towering, long, and explosive. Flying up the rankings, he bought into Michigan's "transformational vs. transactional" pitch in choosing M over Miami. 
  • Aymeric Koumba (3*): Build-An-Ojabo French pterodactyl. Has the size and athleticism to be a dominant passrusher but is a sushi-raw project that Mike Elston coveted from the start. 

Defensive Tackle: 1

  • Brooks Bahr (3*): Long and athletic Chicago-area lineman that Michigan wants to build into a 3Tech. Also a former lacrosse player. 

Linebacker: 

  • Semaj Bridgeman (4*): Thick and physical Philadelphia-area prospect. Old school LB who may be better against the run than in coverage. 

Secondary: 0 

  • Michigan does not currently have a DB commit. They are looking for a very small class and thus have prioritized several targets who are going down to the wire. 

Athlete: 

  • Kendrick Bell (3*): Ronnie's brother, a Who Dat recruit that wasn't on anyone's radar until he began torching Kansas City HS football as a senior. Currently plays QB but with an intriguing athletic profile, Michigan is not sure where to use him yet. 

Special teams: 1 

  • Adam Samaha, K: Ann Arbor (Huron) kicking prospect who profiles among the best kickers in the 2023 class. Has been locked in for nearly a year now. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: remaining targets and 2024]

 

Nyckoles Harbor [247Sports]

Thoughts on the 2023 class overall and remaining targets

As it stands right now, Michigan has 15 commitments for the 2023 class and sits right around the #25 mark nationally, a far cry from the typical 8-12 range that the Wolverines find themselves in. This has happened for a convergence of several reasons that have been discussed many times in my recruiting pieces: Harbaugh's flirtation with the NFL, losing both coordinators, shuffling around positional coaches, a choppy rollout of NIL and an NIL pitch that turned off a number of recruits, and on and on. The 2023 class is going to come in below expectations because of those reasons but we've known that for some time. The focus should be on closing '23 out as well as possible and then returning to normal in 2024. 

When I look at this class right now, what really stands out is how varied it is by position. Some positional groups have a haul I would be very pleased with any year and other positional groups have flopped. QB is obviously the latter, but we don't need to go over the Dante Moore fiasco again. Linebacker and DT are also a bit disappointing at the moment and it's still a little early to see what happens in the secondary. On the flip side, I love the EDGE and TE groups, plus Cole Cabana is a stud and depending on how the final two months go, OL and WR have the potential to be strong too. It's going to be an uneven recruiting class, meeting expectations in some places and well below them in others. 

On that note, let's talk about the final two months of this cycle. As of this writing, Michigan would like to take a couple more offensive linemen, a third WR, a least one more DT, one more LB, and then pull the secondary together. That's roughly seven more prospects they'd like to get, so this class will probably be below the allotted 25 spots. It's likely a good idea to go a little light in '23 to save scholarships for a larger and more robust '24 class. 

Below is a quick rundown of remaining targets at the positions I listed above: 

Wide receiver: 

Offensive Line

  • Nathan Efobi (4*), IOL: Guard prospect who On3 rates as a top 150 prospects but others have as a 3*. Visited in September and has an OV soon. Michigan holds all the predictions/crystal balls. 
  • DJ Chester (4*), IOL: Planning to visit for MSU but seems like a longshot as Michigan is the only non-southern school in on this Georgia native. 
  • Caleb Lomu (4*), OT: Visited in the summer but not a ton of buzz since then. Assumption is he stays west but keep an eye if he makes a return visit. 
  • Spencer Fano (4*), OT: Visiting for the MSU game but this west prospect seems like a stretch given his childhood Oregon fandom and Mormon faith (hello, BYU). 
  • Taliafi Ta'ala (4*), OT: Appears to be a fallback tackle option if Lomu and Fano go elsewhere. Though another west kid, he's interested in moving east and there's little competition of note. Gettable if Michigan pushes ($). 
  • Nick Fattig (3*), OT: Texas Tech commit who is flippable if Michigan pushes. Have not mounted a campaign yet. 

Defensive tackle

Linebacker

  • Desirrio Chiles (3*): Who Dat 3* from the Jacksonville area that Michigan uncovered recently and is starting to evaluate more seriously. 
  • Hayden Moore (3*): Hard commit to Nebraska who Michigan is trying to jar free in the aftermath of the Frost firing. Wolverines liked him before he committed to the Huskers. 
  • Arrion Carter (4*): Tennessee late riser who has jumped from 2* to 4* status and drawn lots of interest. Canceled his Michigan visit recently and with Alabama involved, seems unlikely.

Secondary

  • Jyaire Hill (4*): Chicago-area DB who is the subject of a lengthy and tight recruiting battle between Michigan and Illinois. Going to go down to the wire most likely. 
  • Chris Peal (4*): Michigan made up a lot of ground for this Charlotte DB prospect and the race boiled down to Michigan vs. Georgia, but predictions indicate the Dawgs have the edge. 

Athletes

  • Nyckoles Harbor (5*): Freakishly athletic prospect who is part-football player, part-track star. Michigan wanted him at DE but that may conflict with his Olympic dreams, so WR/TE may be more likely. Tight battle with South Carolina and LSU but some reason to think Michigan may be a nose ahead ($). Lengthy battle unfolding. 

Scanning this remaining board, a reasonable best-case scenario involves winning tight battles for English, McDonald, and Hill + adding Efobi and one of the tackles to round out the OL class and then snatching Harbor as the crown jewel. That would require pretty much everything breaking Michigan's way, but then again we're looking at a season where there seems to be a clear path to 11-0 and the Wolverines had just about everything break their way last year with the '22 class, so it's totally possible. That kind of finish would shoot Michigan up into the teens and within shouting distance of their typical finish. Perhaps a more reasonable expectation is the OL rounding out and then going only 2/4 on the big fish battles. 

While these are the main prospects to watch, I should note that there may be new ones who pop up. If you go back to last year, Derrick Moore was barely a name being talked about until suddenly, right at the end, a coaching change in Oklahoma caused him to decommit and Michigan swooped in. The same was true with Darrius Clemons (who fell away from Oregon because of coaching turmoil with the Ducks) and it's not out of the question that could happen again. Coaching changes sometimes happen on a whim and being in position to reap the benefits did the Wolverines well last time around, so we'll see if there are any opportunities this time. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Looking Ahead to 2024 

The 2024 class is just getting rolling for the Wolverines, so I will keep it on the shorter end here. Michigan is assembling its list of top targets and conducting early visits so this is all rudimentary but I will run through a few names of note. Michigan is aiming for a sizable and talented class at all positions but in particular they need strong showings at QB/LB/DB in 2024. Here are the names to know early on: 

Jadyn Davis, QB (4*/5*): Davis is the biggest name to know these days as a (depending on who you talk to) 5* quarterback. Hailing from the Charlotte area and Providence Day School, Davis has been interested in Michigan for some time and has taken a multitude of visits. The Wolverines have been pushing for Davis to shut it down, but haven't gotten the commitment yet. Alabama and Clemson are interested, while Georgia recently took a 2024 QB and seems to be out of the running, but everyone still believes Michigan is the odds-on favorite. All reporting is that Davis vibes with the coaching staff in a way that was never the case for Dante Moore and that NIL is less of an issue than it was for Moore. At this point the only question is "can Michigan get it done?" 

Mason Curtis, LB (4*): This is the one big time commit the Wolverines have so far, an athletic LB from the Nashville area. You can read his Hello from the summer here, but Curtis is a very nice get to open the 2024 class and seems locked in to Michigan in a way that was never true for ex-2023er Raylen Wilson. 

Brian Robinson, EDGE (4*): If there's one prospect who is seemingly the next most likely in the 2024 class to hop on board, it would be Robinson, who comes from the Youngstown area. He's nestled inside the Top 200 of most rankings and has visited Ann Arbor, most recently for the PSU game. After that visit predictions in Michigan's favor have started to roll in on all the sites, hence the feeling that he might be the next domino to fall. 

Brandon Davis-Swain, DL (4*): Davis-Swain is a West Bloomfield product who is surprisingly committed to Notre Dame, but the Wolverines are aiming to peel him away from the Irish after ND has stumbled through the first half of the season. According to many of the insiders, Davis-Swain appears eminently flippable, it's a matter of whether his talent profile fits Michigan's scheme. Interest between the two sides does seem real given that he visited again this past weekend, but how likely a flip is remains unknown. 

Those are just a few names among dozens that are visiting and in communication with the Michigan staff. I would not expect tons of movement on the 2024 class until the start of the new year, but the fall home slate does provide an opportunity for the coaches to get these players in for early visits and begin building relationships. The total list of targets- and specifically players that Michigan has a good chance with- is promising for the prospect of cobbling together a very good 2024, but a long, long way to go. Of course, we are still 14 months away from signing day for this batch. 

Comments

Colt Burgess

October 19th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^

They put all their eggs in the Dante Moore basket, struck out on that (for a variety of reasons) and now are moving onto the next big fish in 2024.

Care to share those reasons? I have not heard one word on how we lost both Moore and Carr. Would have bet money that we'd get one of them. 

 

WoodleyIsBeast

October 19th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^

My understanding...Is that Dante comes from a rough family situation and he is being compensated very handsomely to go to Oregon. 

I would also say that I don't think Dante wanted to ride the pine. Ty Thompson was highly rated, but I expect Moore to start at Oregon(a la Caleb Williams) right off the bat instead of riding the pine at Michigan for 1-2 years.

VintageRandy

October 19th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^

MGoBlog is not a recruiting hub but every other Michigan site that does recruiting has covered Moore and Carr at length - surprised you haven’t picked up on any of it. It’s also been discussed ad nauseam on the board.

CJ Carr to ND was a surprise to those close to program, but it just seems like he really connected with Tommy Rees at ND and wanted to make his own name away from home. Not necessarily a knock on M’s recruiting staff here.

The rumor with Moore is about Nike money to his family ($5 mil supposedly), but it’s more than that. He straight up did not click with Matt Weiss, which some have taken as an indictment of Weiss. Weiss had openly spoken about how he’s working to adapt to recruiting, but Jadyn Davis loves him so draw your own conclusions. 

BTB grad

October 19th, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^

Can’t blame a kid for taking $5M. That’s life changing money for your family. I’d have done the same thing if I was in his shoes. 

CJ Carr hasn’t looked very good this season, lots of fumbles and INTs. He’s dropped to a 4 star ranked around 120 on On3 in their latest rerankings. If we can close on Davis, then we got the better player. The key will be landing a transfer portal QB to bridge the 2024 season while Davis spends his freshman year seasoning like JJ did.

MaizeBlueA2

October 19th, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^

The conclusion is simple.

Weiss is a coach first, friend second.

Moore complained that he didn't joke enough and other coaches were up playing video games with him late into the night. He has said he understands it's his coach, but he wants someone he can laugh and joke around (and be his friend). Which is find.

Meanwhile Davis is obsessed with Weiss' knowledge of the game, loves their film sessions, and has openly said he doesn't care about a friend, he wants someone to prepare him for the NFL.

 

...it's just two different approaches, one isn't necessarily better, they're just different. 

The only conclusion I can draw about Weiss is that his personality isn't as dynamic and adaptable as your top recruiter who can connect with anyone. Weiss is who he is...and that's a coach and a film rat. Harbaugh raves about his knowledge of the game, Davis has had similar comments, so that's just who he is.

What I'm most surprised about Moore is, why didn't Harbaugh and Bellamy get more involved? They should've been leading the way, Bellamy is the Detroit guy and Harbaugh is basically co-QB coach.

If Weiss is a little stiff...adjust and Harbaugh and Bellamy could have led the recruitment, followed by the co-OC Sherrone Moore.

By all accounts, Harbaugh wasn't involved much and I've always assumed that's because Moore isn't a Harbaugh guy who "loves football." Harbaugh has worked hard to change the culture and if he didn't get involved, I took that as a sign that he wasn't sold.

Meanwhile, Harbaugh is all over the Davis recruitment. That is telling, IMO.

Quailman

October 19th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^

"CJ Carr to ND was a surprise to those close to program"

Maybe not as much of a surprise as people outside of the program believe. There have been reports elsewhere that UM wasn't exactly pushing hard for him and doesnt rate him as much as the services do. That might be warranted with some of his performances this season...

If he had a different last name, I don't think there would be as much smoke and consternation there

bronxblue

October 19th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^

I do wonder how Oregon is going to do recruiting-wise once Uncle Phil is no longer with Nike and they lose their preferred status with the company.  It doesn't mean they won't get solid support but I've read/heard reports that Oregon gets a lot of preferential treatment and incentives because of Knight's involvement and that will likely go away once he's out of everyday management.  

If it's really $5M then that's sort of a crazy amount of money for a kid who hasn't played a down of college ball and, let's be honest, could absolutely fail to meet the level of success that money sort of assumes he'd hit.

VintageRandy

October 19th, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^

Sometimes there are offers you can’t refuse

This is sour grapes talk. He’s been recruited by M since he was in 8th grade and never once did it seem like a lock. Kids are allowed to not want to go to a school just because it’s in state and their family are fans. Put yourself in his shoes: would you want to play for a position coach that you don’t care for? Yes NIL is a huge factor but its not the only factor.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

October 19th, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^

No, that's not what sour grapes means.  Sour grapes would be saying "well Moore will probably be a bust anyway."  Saying Moore committed to Oregon because of the money might be the truth or it might be a whine borne from bitterness, but sour grapes is when you don't get something you really wanted and you cope by telling yourself and others that what you wanted just wasn't worth having anyway.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

October 20th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^

Both POVs can be true at the same time since there are two separate points:

1. Why not UM that is close to home, #4 team, HC with NFL experience & tons of NFL connections, top 5 program for NFL players, etc?  There could be a bunch of factors.

2.Why choose Oregon (over 60 other P5 programs) which is so far from home, HC with no HC track record & no NFL experience, completely new staff, etc? The answer seems to be NIL.

Stanley Hudson

October 19th, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^

Moore grew up in the area, was recruited since 7th grade, trained with Devin Gardner, and still didn’t “love” Michigan.

From what I’ve read, it’s a mix of: Harbaughs flirtation with the NFL, lack of an eminent/up front NIL deal, didn’t connect well with Matt Weiss, Dante’s desire to do something “different”… 

It’s a shame to miss on 5 star QBs that are in your backyard. JD looks good for 2024- if he commits it’ll make the Dante situation sting (a little) less. 
 

 

Jkidd49

October 19th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^

I had low expectations but this rundown and the upside here were worse than I thought.  Just crazy to see the on field results vs. Recruiting results so divergent even given the coaching issue et al. 

unWavering

October 19th, 2022 at 3:40 PM ^

Interestingly I came away encouraged.

Also, I know that this is a cliche thing to say when recruiting classes don't have the star power we all want, but I think this staff has proven themselves very capable of finding hidden gems that others don't necessarily pick up on.  They have a proven track record of grabbing lower rated 3* guys who clearly flew under the radar.

pfholland

October 20th, 2022 at 12:01 AM ^

First, I didn’t say I agreed with that statement, I said it was defensible. You can make a reasonable argument supporting it.

That said, I do not believe a class ranking, the specific place in which a recruiting service says your recruiting class finished among all the classes, is meaningful beyond serving as a very rough approximation of class quality. The actual quality of a class can only really be determined in retrospect, and that absolutely does matter. 

The statistic you’re alluding to (that #1 rated recruiting classes tend to play for national titles) is massively skewed by Alabama, and they won their first title under Saban without a #1 rated class. That success is what lead to all the subsequent #1 classes, so I think it’s disingenuous to say that their subsequent title game appearances are because of their top-rated classes. 

Jkidd49

October 20th, 2022 at 7:57 AM ^

Not once did I say #1 class... but there is an enormous gap btw top 3 classes and everyone else and the teams that win the championship either have those kind of classes in multiple years or they have Heisman QBs.  It's not an opinion I created, it's just been a fact.  Until someone breaks that trend its kind of hard to argue there's any evidence to suggest otherwise.

UM has been awesome these last two years, JH is obviously a great coach and they identify and develope talent as well or better than most but if the goal is to be a national champ they need more total talent.