The Paul Bunyan Trophy is up for grabs this weekend as Michigan and Michigan State do battle on Saturday night in East Lansing. Michigan State comes in at 2-4, riding a four game losing streak and reeling from a titanic collapse against Rutgers last weekend in Piscataway. Their offense didn't have a bad outing and were boasting a new QB, so plenty to talk about today: 

 

The Film: Due to the elevation of Katin Houser to the starting QB job, I had to go with last week's defeat at Rutgers. Thankfully, Rutgers has a pretty solid defense, so we won't be undergoing a crazy strength of opponent adjustment in comparing what Houser faced last week to what he'll see against Michigan. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Coming out of the bye week, interim head coach Harlon Barnett tabbed class of 2022 4* Katin Houser to be the Michigan State starting QB. Houser had some moments in garbage time against such teams as Maryland and Washington, leading fans to call for his promotion, while previous starter Noah Kim's inability to lead the team to victory nor prevent the turnover was a key factor. Houser's first career start was last week against Rutgers, again showing a few flashes but being a clearly limited player who is not ready to be an operational downfield QB, hence the cyan designation. 

Our Dangerman for this piece is RB Nathan Carter, who makes his second appearance as a Dangerman in two seasons, for two different programs. Carter was listed as the Dangerman for the UConn Offense last season and in the offseason he packed his bags and relocated to East Lansing. Carter is not a superstar, but he's the closest thing to an impact player that this toothless MSU offense has. He's supplanted returning starter Jalen Berger and is currently dwarfing his workload in carries by nearly 5:1. Those two RBs are the guys at the position, as there's not even really a #3 RB to speak of on this team. 

WR was our big question mark coming into the season after MSU shed two premium NFL talents (Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed) and the result is basically what we expected: all the WRs are mid. Tre Mosley is still around as a solid player, but has not made any proverbial leap to speak of. Montorie Foster Jr. has emerged as the other primary target, leading the team in both catches and yards. After that there's a bit of a drop-off in targets, with Jaron Glover clearly the most used based on snaps, but in catches Tyrell Henry and Christian Fitzpatrick are not far behind. The real third receiver is the TE, Maliq Carr, still a 6'6" thicc boy, boasting 17 catches for 169 yards and a TD to his name. He's the only TE who gets any substantial work as a downfield target, with Evan Morris and Jaylen Franklin mostly being blocking-only players (despite being quite bad at blocking). 

The MSU offensive line, having long been a major weak spot for the program, may have its best unit in recent memory. That said, it still isn't impeccable by any stretch. We didn't cyan anyone in the starting lineup, which is a step up, though the depth is iffier. The starters at tackle are Brandon Baldwin at LT and Spencer Brown at RT, Brown being the stronger of the two but they held up alright against Rutgers. Houser was given quite a bit of time to throw by the entire line.

At guard, JD Duplain is a multi-year starter opposite Kevin Wingenton II, a new name. Though I have liked Duplain in the past, I thought he was rather disappointing against Rutgers and was outplayed by Wingenton. PFF agrees with that assessment for the full season. Center Nick Samac is also a returning starter, one I hated last season, but he was quite a bit better against Rutgers and gets his cyan circle removed. The backups were all a step down for me, Ethan Boyd a cut below the starters at tackle and Geno VanDeMark a steep fall from the caliber of the starters. If either reserve is out there, look for Michigan's DL to take advantage. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: who are we afraid of?] 

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: MSU has a spread offense, but they are not a shotgun-only offense like you see most spread teams on the schedule being: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	30	5	24	88%
Under Center	6	2	1	12%

They were also pretty run-heavy in this game, largely because it was working and they were ahead for most of the game, but also because of who was at QB: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	20	10
2nd	10	14
3rd	4	8
4th	2	-

Base set: MSU plays the vast majority of their plays out of 11 personnel, 1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WRs. Mostly looking like this: 

But the TE is flexed out sometimes as well and every so often they'll go empty with all five skill position players out wide. The only other personnel package they used was 12, typically with the TEs split to either side of the formation: 

I did not chart any 3 TE or 6 OL plays from the Spartans. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: It was a reasonably diverse run game from Jay Johnson's offense against Rutgers, but more gap concepts than zone ones. Their most common play involved pulling linemen, specifically a backside guard and tight end. I also charted Pin and Pull and Power at different points, as well as the usual zone varities. Inside/outside zone both featured, but the total complexion of the run game does tilt towards the gap bucket, so we'll describe MSU more as a MANBALL team than Basketball on Grass. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Nothing too exciting on this front from MSU. They moved at a pretty typical pace for teams these days, getting up to the line, waiting for instructions, and then going. Not super slow, not super fast. A couple tempo snaps in there, but nothing major. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Michigan State does intend to use the legs of Katin Houser, so that's something that Michigan's defense should be ready for. I counted four designed QB draw plays dialed up by MSU, always in 11 personnel with the TE flexed to make it look like four wide. One went for a TD: 

Houser looked pretty solid reading defenders and weaving his way for points, not super fast but some degree of instinct for rushing. I didn't see him scramble too much, but I do think that is a possibility in Houser's game, as MSU felt comfortable rolling him out. They also called a few run plays with reads turned on, one of which on 4th down that Houser fumbled, but recovered forward for a first down: 

I wouldn't say that Houser's legs are a focal point of the offense but they are definitely a component that Michigan will need to keep an eye on. There will be designed runs and zone reads for Houser and he will move around before throwing. Houser may not be an athletic specimen and it isn't important enough to the offense to rate as any more than a 6 on our scale, but statue-esque is not what I'd use to describe Katin Houser. 

Dangerman: We're going with RB Nathan Carter for this, partially because he's good and partially by process of elimination. The QB is making his second career start. The WRs are emphatically "just guys". The OL is decent but doesn't have a superstar. Who else could we give it to? The RB getting nearly 57% of all rushing attempts for the MSU team is the go-to here. Carter arrived from UConn in the offseason and has put a stranglehold on the RB job, bumping returning starter Jalen Berger out of the way. Carter's 113 carries dwarfs Berger's 24 and the only other player to be in the conversation is Noah Kim via sacks and scrambles. Carter is The Guy at RB. 

I didn't get to see a ton of great moments from him against Rutgers, but this run to dance around poor blocking and surge forward on extra effort to get the first down was quietly good: 

His most successful runs in this game were ones where the OL was doing a lot of the heavy lifting: 

I also wanted to shoutout his pass protection, which hasn't gotten rave reviews from PFF but did really stand out on this play: 

Most of my admiration for Carter comes from other games this season, the Iowa game in particular, as well as last year. At 5'10, 200 lbs., Carter isn't gigantic, but he is filled out and a load to bring down. I'll show you a couple clips from last season that I still have: 

Another: 

Nathan Carter isn't a game-breaker or freakishly athletic, but a rock solid player who makes your team better when he carries the football, compared to a replacement-level back. I never saw that ability from Berger, so Carter has rightfully won the job. 

HenneChart: Katin Houser was the fella MSU fans were clamoring for to get the start at QB and Barnett finally obliged against Rutgers. How'd he do?: 

MSU vs. Rutgers	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Katin Houser	1	12	-		3	2		-	-	5	3		62%	3

Ehhhhh okay. My description of Houser's performance against Rutgers is "limited". The DSR looks okay, but the degree of difficulty in his throws was extremely low. In a lot of ways it reminded me of Brandon Peters vs. Rutgers in 2017, mostly making short, easy throws to build up the confidence of the young QB and not expose his flaws- except more concerning. I'd have to go back and watch that Peters performance, but I don't recall many howlers, whereas Houser had a few balls that clearly demonstrated why the game plan was for him to not throw down the field. 

Most of Houser's throws were easy stuff like this: 

Simple, routine, should be a catchable ball every time and you don't make the young QB have to read a defense. His best throw of the day was this strike on a TD, which showcases some of why Houser was a 4*: 

Those were the sorts of throws that made up the "Good" bucket. There was definitely the bad bucket though, a mix of wavering accuracy and poor reading of the defense. This should've been an INT: 

Rutgers jumped offsides at one point and MSU was gifted a free play. On principle, you want to see a QB go for it and take a risk, but this play stood out to me because this decision with the free play wasn't so much Houser taking a risk as it was him totally misreading the coverage and making a woeful decision: 

Look, it's a free play, it didn't cost hist team, but this play stood out as a football version of "drunk words are sober thoughts" sort of thing. If Houser thinks this is the throw he should make on a free play, completely blind to the safety over the top reading the QB's eyes, it feels pretty illustrative of why MSU chose not to let him attempt downfield throws much in this game. 

The few downfield throws he did make weren't caught but did help MSU along with the All-DPI offense. You did see signs of accuracy issues on throws like this one: 

In totality, they told him to throw it exclusively short and Houser did okay at that, but he had several near INTs and some completely inaccurate balls as well. When he targeted down the field, there wasn't much success beyond drawing penalties and some very clear warning signs. I don't think Houser was any worse than Noah Kim, but he also wasn't clearly any better. For the game he finished 18/28 for 134 yards, which is 4.8 Y/A. Avoiding the turnover made him superior to Kim, but as we saw, it was more luck than anything else why Rutgers didn't turn him over a few times. Houser limits the MSU offense in what they can and can't do down the field and when you don't have impact receivers and the QB is like this, it leaves your passing game looking pretty Rutgersy. 

 

Overview

Michigan State rolls into this weekend with the 86th ranked offense to SP+, leading us to again ask our weekly question "why is this week's opposition offense broken?". MSU's offense has a few problems but let's get the elephant out of the room: turnovers. In P5 games, the Spartans have killed themselves over and over again through turnovers. They had just one against Washington but five against Maryland, four against Iowa, and three against Rutgers (one of which was charged to the punter) have sunk them (+ the kickoff fiasco as a technical fourth turnover). All three of those games are ones MSU could've won and were reasonably competitive from a yardage and down-to-down efficiency standpoint. 

The turnover popped up again in the MSU/Rutgers game, unsurprisingly: 

This was one of two fumbles by wide receivers in this game (I won't show you the other one, because it's nearly an identical play). Noah Kim's interceptions were a key part of the turnover brigade but as explained in the HenneChart section, I'm not sure Katin Houser is any better in that regard. Rather, they're limiting his opportunity to throw interceptions, which in turn limits his ability to provide anything of value as a passer to this offense. 

The turnovers have been a big part of what has tanked MSU's EPA/play numbers and the like, because the actual efficiency down-to-down isn't terrible. The offensive line is probably the most surprising positive development for me. Against Iowa and Rutgers, two teams with ostensibly good defenses, MSU was able to push those two fronts around decently well, despite having this husk of a passing game to go with it. Here are the sack-excluded YPC clips for MSU's rushing game against Maryland, Iowa, and Rutgers: 5.0, 4.9, 3.8. Not bad. Not incredible, but not bad. 

The rushing game against Rutgers really came and went. The first drive was immaculate, an utter paving of the Rutgers defense that marched MSU right down the field and into the end zone. Watching it live, I was incredibly impressed and my second viewing when charting this game was just as positive. It was mostly the OL: 

Another TD drive in the second half was a similar story, running it right down the throat of Rutgers over and over again, getting 5 yards a pop: 

I don't have too many individual notes on these linemen, other than the reserves (who occasionally rotated in) being worse than the starters, which is not exactly a hot scoop. The doubles they put on defensive tackles as an entire line were extremely successful and the team was able to open up considerable running room with decent consistency on their best drives. However, there were also some less impressive rushing drives and that's what led the OL to clock in below star status (and kept a star off every individual lineman). Example: 

TE blocking stood out as a major problem, with Evan Morris and Jaylan Franklin struggling. If MSU got stuffed on the ground, they were more frequent culprits than the OL. Though it is not as if there is much competition for the following title, I do feel rather resolute in saying that MSU is the best run blocking OL Michigan will have seen this season. 

As a pass blocking line, it looked a bit iffier. Rutgers was able to get a fair bit of pressure on Houser. LT Brandon Baldwin was their shakiest pass protector in my view, though LG JD Duplain didn't look great either. Duplain and reserve T Ethan Boyd are culprits on the big third down stop that would end up being the final play MSU's offense ran in the game: 

The other major problem for MSU's offense is the lack of game-breaking players. As you may have noticed on the chart, they have one starred player, Nathan Carter. And he's a weaker star than most teams I chart. Other than that, no one else even approached star status for me. The OL consists of merely decent players. The QB is not ready for primetime. And the receivers? All just guys.

I honestly have no clips of note to show you of any of the receivers beyond what you've already seen from Houser. They run short routes, catch the ball, and get tackled. No one threatens to dunk on you like Keon Coleman did and no one can threaten to make a game-altering catch the way Jayden Reed could. There is no Roman Wilson take-the-top-off-the-defense threat, either. I could show you clips of receivers running drag routes, bubble/tunnel screens, and hitches, but that's not exciting. It is, however, the entirety of the MSU passing game right now, which ought to tell you a lot about the offense. This was their other passing TD, to ole steady WR Tre Mosley: 

Okay then. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

I don't think much needs to substantially change about Michigan's defensive approach to handle the MSU offense, though I would like to see the defensive tackle rotation stop on Saturday, at least for the first half while the tone gets set. This is an offensive line that has had some success and if they can't run the ball, it's difficult to see MSU doing anything offensively. If you leave Jenkins and Graham out there more, I do expect they will be able to sharply limit what State can do on the ground because they are exceptional players and this MSU OL is merely decent. But it is decent and I think it could find traction against some of the reserves, giving MSU a bit of a footing that is unnecessary to grant them. 

But if you gobble up the run between the tackles, I'm not sure what else MSU has. On the drives where Rutgers stopped the run, MSU's offense went nowhere. On the drives where MSU ran it consistently, their offense looked quite good. If you make Katin Houser play out of 2nd & 9 and 3rd & 8, he could be in serious trouble given the mix of accuracy and defensive literacy issues he has displayed. Unlike last year, MSU does not pose a test for Michigan's secondary, though I do expect MSU's pass attack could be moderately annoying if Michigan leaves the flats open given its dink-and-dunk desires. Still, if Michigan is stopping the run I'd expect the Wolverine defense to bait Houser into a couple terrible decisions that turn into interceptions. Getting some pressure around the edges would help achieve that too, which seems likely. 

MSU will come with their scripted drive and their best plays, which will be irritating. They'll also have a bit of fight when they're not turning it over. But turnovers seem inevitable at this point and so long as Michigan plays their best defensive tackles, the path for the Spartan offense to score enough points to win or even be competitive seems very steep with a QB as green as Katin Houser.