It's a hybrid post today due to time constraints: in addition to the generally packed hoops schedule, your author is getting his first dose of the vaccine later this afternoon. First, a preview of the WBB Sweet Sixteen matchup with mighty Baylor; then, a look at how transition defense could determine the MBB Sweet Sixteen matchup with Florida State.

Preview: Baylor

THE OVERVIEW

This is another measuring stick game. Michigan has already cemented 2020-21 as the program's best season ever by reaching the program's first Sweet Sixteen and beating Tennessee to get there. If they can stay competitive with Baylor, a team that's made eight of the last ten Elite Eights and won three NCAA titles since 2005, including the most recent one in 2019—well, yeah, that'd be a massive step.

These programs have faced off once before when the Bears cruised to an 80-58 second-round NCAA Tournament win in 2018. While Michigan has closed the gap and won't have to play in Waco this time, that's a big gap. FiveThirtyEight gives Baylor a 90% chance at the win while Her Hoop Stats puts their chances at 84%.

THE US

Starting point guard Amy Dilk didn't make the trip to San Antonio last weekend because of a "medical issue" that we didn't receive any further details on after Michigan advanced. The Michigan Daily's Abbie Telgenhof writes that it's "unclear" if Dilk will be able to rejoin the team this weekend. In her place, Leigha Brown has taken on more of the lead playmaking responsibilities while Danielle Rauch has brought high energy and pesky defense filling the fifth spot in the starting lineup.

THE THEM

While Baylor is a two-seed, Her Hoop Stats has them as the #3 team based on adjusted efficiency margin, and they looked like a national title contender while pasting seven-seed Virginia Tech 90-48 (gulp) in the second round.

The Bears play bully-ball on both ends of the floor. No team in the country scores a lower percentage of its points on three-pointers, they make 52% of their twos (17th nationally), and rebound 46%(!!!) of their misses (2nd). Their defense ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency, first in 2FG% and eFG% allowed, fifth in rebounding rate, fifth in block rate, and tenth in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.

A quick rundown of the main players:

• 6'2 junior forward NaLyssa Smith won Big 12 Player of the Year, averaging 18 points on 55% shooting, nine rebounds (three offensive), and about an assist, block, and steal apiece. She's a force on the interior despite being merely average in post-up offense because she's remarkably productive on putbacks, cuts, and in transition.
• 5'6 senior guard Moon Ursin is the team's primary three-point threat and a fantastic all-around player. The all-conference second-teamer is excellent at running the pick-and-roll and posts remarkable rebounding numbers on both ends given her height. She also made the Big 12 all-defense team.
• Ursin isn't the most decorated defender in Baylor's backcourt because of 6'2 senior DiDi Richards, a versatile big guard who's made three straight all-defense teams and was one of two unanimous selections this season. Richards is a pass-first offensive player who leads the team in assists. She's at her best operating as a pick-and-roll ballhandler; she hasn't attempted a three all year, so she's not spacing the floor when the ball isn't in her hands.
• 6'3 junior center Queen Egbo is the main paint intimidator on an intimidating team. She averages 11 points with solid post-up efficiency, pulls down three of her nine boards on offense, blocks two shots, and even adds a steal per game. Her backup, freshman Hannah Gusters, is 6'5 and an effective inside scorer.
• 5'9 junior Trinity Oliver is the quiet offensive player who's out there for defense. While Oliver starts, she gets the slightly lesser split of a relatively even platoon with grad transfer guard Dijonai Carrington, who's second on the team in scoring and won the Big 12's sixth player award. Carrington is a volume scorer, though not the sharpest outside shooter, and she grabs two steals a game on the other end.

Head coach Kim Mulkey can reach deeper into her bench if needed.

It's going to be difficult for Michigan to win this game the way they normally do—by winning the paint battle and the boards. They probably need to have one of their best outside shooting performances, at minimum, to hang in this one.

The Wolverines also need to take care of the ball; both teams to upset Baylor—Arkansas and Iowa State—both held the Bears to seven steals or fewer and kept their turnover total relatively low. That's critical both for scraping points together and keeping BU out of transition. Naz Hillmon drawing some early fouls on Egbo could also change the course of the game. While Gusters is very tall, Egbo is by far Baylor's best rim protector.

Michigan has a puncher's chance. That's a lot more than you could say when these programs played in 2018.

[Hit THE JUMP for a look at Florida State's reliance on transition offense.]

Sweet Sixteen Key: Slow It Down

FSU is better on the run [Josh Duplechian/NCAA Photos via Getty Images]

When rewatching Florida State's win over Colorado, their preference for running in transition was apparent. I wandered over to hoop-math to see how FSU (and potential Elite Eight opponent Alabama, which is included largely because their numbers are wild) stack up against the Big Ten offenses we've become used to watching in terms of transition frequency and efficiency.

I also wanted to look at how Michigan's defense has performed at defending transition, as well as which teams have the biggest gap between shooting efficiency on the break and in halfcourt sets. My apologies for the ugly column titles; we're sorting by percentage of a team's initial field goal attempts occur in the first ten seconds of the shot clock with additional breakdowns to see how much they run off of defensive rebounds, opponents scores, and steals.

The last three columns are a look at the team's eFG% in the first ten seconds of the shot clock compared to the last 20. I also included Michigan's second-round victim, LSU, as a reference point.

A few quick takeaways before I run out the door because I've never wanted a needle jabbed in my arm so badly:

• FSU and LSU are similarly transition-heavy, though the Seminoles are more likely to push the pace off a made basket (think Iowa with Luka Garza rim runs), and they have an identical 6.2 point split between their transition and non-transition eFG percentages. That gap is on the relatively high end, especially since FSU has a solid halfcourt offense and therefore makes it tougher to improve a great deal.
• Michigan's defense, however, slows opponents down so fewer than a quarter of their initial attempts come in transition, and a higher percentage than usual of those looks are off made baskets, the toughest way to score on the fast break.
• Even more notable than how M keeps opponents out of transition, though, is how hard it is to score on them even when opponents can run. Opposing offenses have a 47.9 eFG% in the first ten seconds of the clock, which is precisely as effective as the Rutgers halfcourt offense and right in the ballpark of MSU, PSU, and Indiana. Those are bad halfcourt offenses.
• Meanwhile, running halfcourt offense against the Wolverines is death. Opposing halfcourt offenses are worse than the one that got Richard Pitino mega-fired at Minnesota for being way worse than any other Big Ten halfcourt offense.

There are mismatch fears on both sides of this one. Scottie Barnes is a handful, even for Franz Wagner. FSU's guards are big and can shoot. The whole team is massive. When I look at how these teams prefer to score, though, the more I like Michigan's chances to hold serve as the one-seed.