unironic deployment of Michigan Man is authorized [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Basketbullets: 2018-19 Nebraska Comment Count

Brian March 1st, 2019 at 3:32 PM

2/28/2019 – Michigan 82, Nebraska 53 – 25-4, 14-4

Even this year, Charles Matthews gets referred to as The Kentucky Transfer from time to time. This is a little off-putting since there are few players that have embodied the Beilein era better than Matthews, personality-wise. On the court, Matthews has a smile that doubles as trash talk.

Off the court, he could say "we had subs, it was crazy" and you wouldn't blink twice. After he hit an improbable game-winner against Minnesota his post-game interview was almost apologetic—yeah the ball fell to me and I got a shot off but it could have been any one of my teammates and I'll take turkey on Italian please. He asked after Ace this  year.

That dichotomy has come to define Michigan basketball, so when you call him the Kentucky transfer that places him outside a program he is in the dead center of.

But it still does make some sense. The Kentucky Transfer does immediately communicate several things about Matthews. He can jump, and long after you, a practiced observer of people jumping, expect that he will start to descend he continues going up. That's the Kentucky part. The transfer part is that his offensive game is a rickety thing. He hovers around 30% from three; he's worked hard to get his FT percentage north of 60; he still does a few things in every game that make you clap in frustration.

Also Kentucky is a program built around having various dinosaur-sized people lock you down defensively until the point in the season where all the freshmen turn into something resembling a team. Matthews entering the program at the same instant Beilein hired a defensive coordinator, and his first game also being Luke Yaklich's first game, are serendipitous events. The program was ready for him.

So the individual transferred to the whole. Michigan, the program, has been The Kentucky Transfer for the last two years. Sometimes it feels like someone entirely different wearing the program as a second skin, but the results are undeniable: a Big Ten Tourney title, a three seed, an appearance in the final, a pending two seed and the possibilities that unfold from there.

There's no better emblem of this mini-era than the kind of guy Michigan never gets coming over as somewhat damaged goods and making it work anyway. Matthews leaves the program better than he found it.

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bench functionality projects to be improved [Campredon]

A preview of next year. DDJ and Castleton got a fair amount of run in a game without Charles Matthews in which Livers started and played 33 minutes. With Poole and Iggy currently tracking towards returns, about which more later, the minutes distribution in this game is probably pretty close to what we'll see next year except for the absence of a backup on the wing. Presumably one of Johns/Nunez/Wilson/Bajema will be able to emerge into a 10-15 minute player.

You may have noticed that things went pretty well. Livers was up to the task of checking James Palmer, who finished 3/15 from the floor and was one of the Nebraska starters to get yanked for the first eight minutes of the second half. That's not far off Palmer's usual level of performance this year—he entered the game shooting 34% from two in league play—and should probably not be taken as a sign that Livers is going to be able to match Matthews stop-for-stop on the defensive end.

But he's not bad there, and he was able to collect 12 points on 20% usage here. Ideally Livers is able to add a few more points of usage next year to keep an undue burden from falling on folks around him.

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not pictured: the chastened version [Campredon]

A chastened Poole. Jordan Poole's halftime shooting stats: 0/0. He put up four in the second half, but the numbers that pop off the box score: 5 assists, one turnover. Most of those assists were dumping it down against post mismatches after switches, huzzah. So was the turnover, which is fine. At no point did he take a stepback three against a big.

Poole drew Thomas Allen as his primary defensive matchup and held a pretty decent player to 1/5 from the floor. This was a reserved, in control version of Poole. But even then some of the swag pops out:

Poole just needs to tamp down the wild swings. He's got it in there.

[After THE JUMP: Castletons of fun]

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Gus Johnson probably said "young fella"at home without knowing why [Campredon]

Hello: Colin Castleton. Some context for the Borchardt-era Cornhuskers defending centers:

Player Twos FTAs Usage
Ethan Happ 5/8 3 24%
Giorgi Bezhanishivili 4/8 4 26%
Bruno Fernando 4/7 6 20%
Haarms/Williams 4/7 0 ~18%
Daniel Oturu 7/14 4 28%
Dererk Pardon 4/10 2 24%
Mike Watkins 4/7 3 38%
Haarms/Williams 6/16 11 ~30%
  38/77    

I tried to leave out nonentity backup Cs and only use established, extant offensive players. The list above is a pretty good list of scorers. Collectively they've shot 49% from two against the Cornhuskers when Borchardt is the center for 30+ minutes.

So 5/7 with one of the misses a spectacularly blown transition dunk and two and-ones does mean something against a team that had largely maintained its post defense post-injury. Castleton didn't post anyone for those makes but was extremely effective as a roller to the basket, able to grab some passes that looked questionable with his crazy gumby arms and deft at showing the basketball to his opposition and then finishing after they bite on the pump fake. Once he got Nana Akenten so far in the air that he was able to duck under him—uh, mostly—and come through to the other side of the basket for an and-one.

Castleton's post defense was entirely untested since Borchardt is strictly a dunk-on-assists guy but between this stretch and his minutes against Minnesota and Iowa we've got 16 minutes in which the worst thing he's done is give up OREBs because he had to help on drives to the basket. He's a player.

He's got more depths to plumb yet: in high school one of his favorite moves was the Wagner behind-the-back drive, and he's a capable shooter. Prediction: Castleton has a year two jump similar to Nate Reuvers, who went from an 89 ORTG guy to 110 and a top 50 block rate. Castleton may be a bit behind Reuvers at this point (Reuvers played about 12 MPG last year) but Michigan will catch him up fast.

But all of the above doesn't mean I believe this:

I believe that when Castleton cracks 200 pounds he's going to be something.

Well, look at that. John Teske is shooting 40% from three in Big Ten play. That's just 47 attempts and subject to some wobble. Beilein certainly thinks that's his true shooting talent level, and must have hundreds more practice attempts to base that thought on.

Teske's shot is too slow and is too affected by tight defense to be quite the weapon that Moe Wagner's was. I doubt Teske will ever near the 158 attempts Wagner had last year, because opponents will be able to check it. That'll open up some driving lanes, though.

RIP starting lineup. Michigan was the last team in the country to not deviate from its opening-day starting lineup:

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[Campredon]

Tracking towards returns. Sam Vecenie surveyed a wide array of college assistants about the NBA prospects of various college players. Brazdeikis was amongst them, and the consensus appears to be that he's not a one and done:

First Coach

“He’s a good college player. He’s very limited athletically, and won’t be able to guard his position at the next level. He’s a very good college player. He’s a great pick-and-pop 4-man.” …

Third Coach

“He definitely should be there multiple years. He’s a smart scorer, uses angles. Can obviously shoot it. Doesn’t really turn it over. But I think you’ve seen in conference that it’s mostly straight-line driving. He doesn’t have much bounce, and he doesn’t really have a way to counter what you do on defense. He plays hard. Hits the defensive glass.

“He can’t stay with his man athletically (on defense). You can drive him and get past. I know he had the great start to the year, but Big Ten play has been tougher for him. (Joe) Wieskamp at Iowa doesn’t get any publicity, but I think I’d take him because he affects the game all over the court more.”

ESPN's just updated top 100—which is now the Draft Express Top 100, BTW—has Poole 65th and Iggy 83rd. Neither makes Givony's mock draft. (Romeo Langford is inexplicably fifth, though. Even more inexplicable: James Palmer as a late second round pick. Matthews does not appear.)

Anyway: Michigan is either going to see one of those two guys blow up in the postseason—which would be fine, thanks—or get both back for next year. And since this question keeps coming up: Charles Matthews has a degree and will get paid to play basketball somewhere next year. He's not coming back. Michigan already filled his scholarship and is recruiting with further attrition in mind. This was the deal from the drop.

BONUS dumping on Jim Boehiem. What's more appealing than indications Michigan should get its freshman star back? People dumping on Syracuse as they discuss Tyus Battle:

First Coach

“… he can go get buckets with the ball in his hands. They have no scheme offensively, really.”

Second Coach

“They really aren’t running anything for him. I don’t know how to say that in a nice way.

Third Coach

“I’m a big Battle guy. They do nothing offensively, which makes him so much better. He gets no set-up at all. He’s creating his own shots. How many ball-screens does he come off per game? 40? 50? His efficiency scares me a little bit, but I buy him.”

Fourth Coach

“Tyus is who he is. He’ll get drafted because he can score, but I don’t think he does anything else. I don’t think he’s a winner. I don’t think he’s a team guy. I feel like he’s all about himself.”

Fifth Coach

“Their system is pretty bland. They don’t run a lot of stuff except ball-screens. He manufactures a lot of points in that regard."

Sixth Coach

“He’s good. He can really score. They play the 2-3, so you never know where that translates on defense. Good size, would like to see him maybe shoot it more consistently. But a guy who can really get his shot off.”

I hope the cash up front was worth it, because what are the chances the Michigan version of Battle is still in college? Not high.

Weird MEAC team of the week! Do you know who the best team in the Big Ten er, MEAC was in February? Your guess is incorrect.

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Penn State is charting new frontiers in ways to have a frustrating program. Last year: best team in the history of Kenpom to not make the tournament. This year: Patented Beilein Surge that's a month late to actually do anything in re: making the tournament.

I wonder if this surge here will save Pat Chambers his job. PSU loses only Josh Reaves to graduation. He might be able to make the case that they're upwardly mobile enough to make the tournament next year.

Comments

Naked Bootlegger

March 1st, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^

Colin Castleton and the lost art of the pump fake.   He gets people off their feet.  I like it.

Also, Charles will be missed.   Having two alpha-dog wing/perimeter defenders is a luxury we haven't seen in a long time.   Michigan's defensive resurgence has his fingerprints all over it.

Shop Smart Sho…

March 1st, 2019 at 4:13 PM ^

"Presumably one of Johns/Nunez/Wilson/Bajema will be able to emerge into a 10-15 minute player."

This got me thinking. I'm not an expert, although I am a white guy from Indiana, but for someone billed as Just A Shooter, Nunez has the worst shooting motion I can remember. Zak Irvin looked to have a smoother shot.

I guess I was expecting him to look more like Stauskas/Robinson from behind the line.

MGlobules

March 1st, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^

I think a lot of people would like to be "damaged goods" as much as Charles Matthews. That's an unfortunate choice of words, IMO. We're all, uh, polishing our game, especially in college. 

Fuzzy Dunlop

March 1st, 2019 at 5:10 PM ^

Did the tone of the opening section cause anyone else to have a panic attack that Matthews had been declared out for the year, and rush to the Twitters to confirm that wasn't the case?  Especially that last sentence -- " Matthews leaves the program better than he found it." 

Or was that just me?

socalwolverine1

March 1st, 2019 at 5:19 PM ^

I feel sorry for Matthews, sustaining an injury late in the season, after working hard to improve various aspects of this game. I guess that explains why he was hesitant to drive the hoop against Sparty, which we needed so badly. But, like Brian says, Charles has to be thrilled to have been coached by Beilein, because we've watched him grow as an all-around player until his tutelage.

cornman

March 1st, 2019 at 7:31 PM ^

Is it really inconceivable that Penn State could play their way into the tourney?  They're currently 50th in the NET.  Minnesota, Temple, Seton Hall, and Utah State are the last four in according to bracket matrix and their NET rankings are 55, 56, 64 and 34.  Penn State should be squarely in the middle of the bubble if the committee is going by NET.

J.

March 1st, 2019 at 11:17 PM ^

The committee won't go purely by NET; they're more interested in the team sheets, which list wins and losses grouped by quadrant.  For example, Michigan's team sheet shows 7-4 in Q1 (3-3 in Q1A) with two Q1 games remaining; 9-0 in Q2 (6-0 in Q2A), 2-0 in Q3, and 7-0 in Q4.  That's solid across the board -- well above .500 in Q1 -- which is a basic proxy for tournament teams; half of their remaining games are Q2, so they have a good strength of schedule, and they have no bad losses.

Seton Hall's team sheet shows them as 4-6 in Q1, 6-3 in Q2, 3-2 in Q3, and 3-0 in Q4.  That's a bubble résumé.  The two losses might keep them out; the four Q1 wins might get them in.  Hard to complain either way.

On the other hand, PSU is 3-11 in Q1, 3-3 in Q2, 4-2 in Q3, and 2-0 in Q4.  They have the #3 SOS in the country, so tip of the cap for that.  But, at some point, you have to win some of the games.  If they didn't have the awful losses, then maybe.  However, you can't have 16 total losses, two of which are Q3, and expect to be on the bubble.  One of the Q3 losses is a home loss to Rutgers.  (Their loss to DePaul is Q2 because it was on the road).

They're currently the 11 seed.  If we assume they win out, that means they add wins @Wisconsin, @Rutgers, and vs. Illinois; that's one each in Q1, Q2, and Q3.  However, since they're only a game behind both Illinois and Rutgers, the two teams immediately ahead of them in the standings, sweeping those games would result in a first-round bye, which is actually a bad thing for their hypothetical tournament chances; every Big Ten team except Rutgers is a Q1 or Q2 win on a neutral court.  So, now they're 15-16 with four games to play in the Big Ten tournament.  If they get the right draw, those could be four Q1 games; if they go 3-1, to finish 18-17.. they're still just 7-12 in Q1, 4-3 in Q2, 4-2 in Q3, and 3-0 in Q4, for a total of 18-17.  I just can't see it.  19-16, maybe.  Not 18-17.

umchicago

March 1st, 2019 at 7:47 PM ^

my favorite line RE Battle:

"I hope the cash up front was worth it, because what are the chances the Michigan version of Battle is still in college? Not high."

after 10 years of sending unheralded guys to the nba, maybe more high school kids will start to notice that JB will maximize their cash.  a little short-term investment (no bagman) for long-term gain (nba $).