jordan poole

a master in chaos [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Previously: Part One, Part Two. If you're looking for the Rutgers preview it's here.

You're definitely going to want to at least read part two of this series, which explains the stats I'm using below and details the 2009-14 seasons, before moving on to the rest of this post. Ideally, you'll read part one, as well.

Now that you're caught up, let's get to it.

2014-15: Bad Wheels

Team Stats: 27.7% pick-and-rolls + passes (#36 in country), 0.911 points per play (#62)

The Ballhandlers:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Spike Albrecht 65 0.815 (70%) 98 1.276 (92%) 178 1.092 (93%) 36.5%
Caris LeVert 87 0.644 (35%) 58 0.862 (34%) 145 0.731 (28%) 60.0%
Derrick Walton 52 0.635 (33%) 61 0.967 (54%) 113 0.814 (47%) 46.0%
Zak Irvin 60 0.783 (63%) 43 1.395 (96%) 103 1.039 (90%) 58.3%
MAAR 39 0.872 (79%) 19 1.737 (100%) 58 1.155 (96%) 67.2%

The Screeners:

  Pop Plays (%) Pop PPP (%ile) Roll Plays Roll PPP (%ile) Slip Plays (%) Slip PPP (%ile) Overall Plays Overall PPP (%ile)
Max Bielfeldt 12 (36.4%) 1.167 (88%) 19 (57.6%) 1.000 (30%) 2 (6.1%) 2.000 (—) 33 1.121 (76%)
Ricky Doyle 1 (3.6%) 2.000 (—) 26 (92.9%) 1.308 (74%) 1 (3.6%) 0.000 (—) 28 1.286 (90%)
Zak Irvin 9 (69.2%) 1.222 (—) 4 (30.8%) 2.000 (—) 13 1.462 (96%)
Mark Donnal 1 (10%) 3.000 (—) 9 (90%) 1.556 (—) 10 1.700 (99%)

I almost didn't include this season or the next because of Michigan's injury issues, then decided it was useful to see what happens when a team's two best perimeter players get hurt in the same season.

While neither Caris LeVert nor Derrick Walton were producing particularly well in the pick-and-roll before their respective foot injuries, we saw later that these injuries delayed breakouts into effective players—Walton, in particular, eventually became a great P&R ballhandler.

The players that remained were effective but one-dimensional. Spike Albrecht drove to pass. Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman hunted shots off of screens. Irvin, defying reputation, struck the best balance between shooting and passing, and he was a very effective passer. Only MAAR was above-average at generating his own offense off of screens, though.

Derrick Walton's foot injury stunted a developing rapport with Ricky Doyle

Michigan was also working with a limited group of finishers. Ricky Doyle was the best roll man but was a roll man only. Max Bielfedlt(!) ended up with the most plays among screeners even though he was a 30th-percentile finisher on the roll; he salvaged decent efficiency with some pick-and-pop jumpers. If Zak Irvin was setting a screen, it was to pop or slip for a jump shot.

This marks the first season since 2008-09 that Michigan's pick-and-roll usage went down; they also slipped 40 spots in the efficiency rankings. This team was going to drop off with the departures of Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Jordan Morgan, then injuries made matters worse. Even if LeVert and Walton weren't high-level P&R ballhandlers at this point, their spot-up shooting could've helped.

Even with all that, Michigan's pick-and-roll offense ranked in the 83rd percentile by points per play. They weren't elite; they were still good. They just couldn't build the offense around it to the extent they had the previous year.

2015-16: Bad Wheels 2

Team Stats: 30.5% pick-and-rolls + passes (#22 in country), 0.923 points per play (#80)

The Ballhandlers:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Derrick Walton 128 0.711 (44%) 120 1.000 (59%) 248 0.851 (51%) 51.6%
Zak Irvin 149 0.826 (68%) 98 1.306 (93%) 247 1.016 (86%) 60.3%
Caris LeVert 57 0.877 (77%) 62 0.855 (32%) 119 0.866 (54%) 47.9%
MAAR 67 0.910 (82%) 41 0.805 (24%) 108 0.870 (55%) 62.0%
Duncan Robinson 19 0.632 (29%) 17 0.647 (9%) 36 0.639 (14%) 52.8%

The Screeners:

  Pop Plays (%) Pop PPP (%ile) Roll Plays Roll PPP (%ile) Slip Plays (%) Slip PPP (%ile) Overall Plays Overall PPP (%ile)
Mark Donnal 12 (21.8%) 0.500 (12%) 40 (72.7%) 1.250 (60%) 3 (5.5%) 0.667 (—) 55 1.055 (60%)
Ricky Doyle 1 (2.9%) 2.000 (—) 30 (88.2%) 1.200 (54%) 3 (8.8%) 0.333 (—) 34 1.147 (73%)
Moe Wagner 3 (15.8%) 1.667 (—) 16 (84.2%) 1.375 (77%) 19 1.421 (95%)
DJ Wilson 9 (64.3%) 0.556 (—) 4 (28.6%) 1.500 (—) 1 (7.1%) 0.000 (—) 14 0.786 (24%)
Zak Irvin 9 (81.8%) 1.000 (—) 2 (18.2%) 0.000 (—) 11 0.818 (27%)

An unfortunate repeat, as Walton's previous foot injury sapped his ability to finish at the rim and LeVert—who'd improved considerably as a scorer off the high screen—again lost most of the season to a bad wheel.

Beilein increased the volume past where it had been in 2013-14 and the team's PPP slightly increased, though they came out worse compared to the rest of the country. Irvin was easily the team's best P&R ballhandler, continuing to pass at a high level while making enough pull-up jumpers to be relatively effective as a scorer.

some of those jumpers were rather important

MAAR pulled off a tough feat, averaging more PPP using his own offense than when he passed; that's very much a good news/bad news situation.

The roll men remained limited. This was the year Ricky Doyle seemingly lost the ability to catch and finish, so Mark Donnal ended up as the primary screener. Neither graded out particularly well. The center who did: enigmatic freshman Moe Wagner, who scored well as a roll man and flashed the ability to pop out and hit jumpers.

[Hit THE JUMP for Michigan exploring that a bit more.]

deposed soon [Bryan Fuller]

Sponsor Note. The Alumni association has a deal going: become a Life Member of the Alumni Association and score two tickets to a Michigan football game later this season against Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, or Ohio State, You'll also be entered into a drawing for field passes to select games. The Life Membership puts you first in line for exclusive athletic offers, travel opportunities, and discounts through Go Blue Rewards. Become a Life Member do it.

I thought "Dogg" stood for Decorous Owl Gazing Group. I cannot recommend this recent segment from The Michigan Insider on the topic of Isaiah Todd's recent visit to Kansas—which featured a Snoop Dogg performance that seemed like a middle finger to the NCAA—enough:

Kansas won some internet acclaim by leaning into the heel turn, but hurriedly backtracked once it became clear that the Kansas donor class was more of a Steely Dan crowd. AD Jeff Long:

“We apologize to anyone who was offended by the Snoop Dogg performance at Late Night. We made it clear to the entertainers’ managers that we expected a clean version of the show and took additional steps to communicate to our fans, including moving the artist to the final act of the evening, to ensure that no basketball activities would be missed if anyone did not want to stay for his show.

“I take full responsibility for not thoroughly vetting all the details of the performance and offer my personal apology to those who were offended. We strive to create a family atmosphere at Kansas and fell short of that this evening.”

I'm not sure what Kansas expected when several stripper poles were wheeled onto the court, but they are the national leader in not seeing things in front of their own eyes. Bifocals and a history of 90s rap for the entire athletic department.

As Matt wrote earlier in the day, Michigan is trending heavily for Todd. With visits over and a decision set there's not much ammo or time left for Kansas to flip Todd back, and it sounds like the Snoop show backfired with mom. A national Rivals analyst predicting Kansas and then flipping to Michigan seems pretty good.

Michigan's main competition may now be a year overseas; hopefully the lure of playing for a guy who knows the NBA inside and out will overcome the lure of immediate dollars. This is just another reason to hope NIL rights get restored to players, by the way—much easier to convince Todd to stay stateside if he can leverage his name and image with the Michigan fanbase.

[After THE JUMP: NIL bill rolls off the toungue]

SEGMENT ONE: MORE WAGNER?

We discuss Michigan basketball’s outlook for 2019-2020 with and without Franz Wagner, who as of recording time hasn’t made a decision between Alba Berlin and the Wolverines. He’s risen to 2020 first round candidate, and he’d likely fill the Iggy Brazdeikis role as a larger catch-and-shoot threat who can score in a variety of ways. We’re not quite ready to say that adding Wagner is the difference between making and missing the NCAA tournament, but we get close.

SEGMENT TWO: BIG TEN RUNDOWN

We go team-by-team using Bart Torvik’s 2020 projections as a jumping-off point to predict an approximate order of finish. We’re bullish on MSU and Maryland; less so on Penn State, Nebraska, and Northwestern. Can the conference produce more than six NCAA bids? There are a lot of teams in the middle of the pack that could find themselves on the bubble and not much in the way of locks beyond the aforementioned Spartans and Terps.

SEGMENT THREE: POOLE PARTY IN THE BAY AREA

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Iggy Brazdeikis to the Knicks is also discussed before we delve into a question about John Beilein’s ability to turn the Cavs into contenders. A lot has to go right for that to happen; will Dan Gilbert give him enough time?

SEGMENT FOUR: BASEBALL SCHOOL NOW

We don’t claim to know college baseball, so we spend a few minutes appreciating Michigan’s run to the championship series. Alex used to play backyard football with Karl Kaufmann and somehow his crew took a while to figure out that the kid with an arm-cannon should play quarterback.

SONGS:

"Come On Home" — Franz Ferdinand

"What is Success"— Allen Toussaint

"Interlude" — Lamont Dozier

THE USUAL LINKS

A certain player went in a certain round that nobody believed would happen.

If you wanna go, go, but just say you wanna go. Schieß das glas ab.

I bet you can guess what I've embedded in this post 

Rasheed does live in the sky and nobody can tell me different 

I say that whenever you can get a guy named Bizzy Bones you gotta do it 

It felt awful. It felt stupid. It felt ancient. It felt self-inflicted.

Georgia Tech must be defeated 

sometimes I think amateurism should be abolished, and sometimes I think professionalism should be abolished 

if I told you someone on the team screamed the guttural cry of the scottish warrior you would instantly guess who 

all that is left of Florida is a jaunty hat floating on a blorping mass

when the opening tip is a neat definition of the game