Ace Pod 1.5: Accepting Apologies wsg Alex Cook
SEGMENT ONE: MORE WAGNER?
We discuss Michigan basketball’s outlook for 2019-2020 with and without Franz Wagner, who as of recording time hasn’t made a decision between Alba Berlin and the Wolverines. He’s risen to 2020 first round candidate, and he’d likely fill the Iggy Brazdeikis role as a larger catch-and-shoot threat who can score in a variety of ways. We’re not quite ready to say that adding Wagner is the difference between making and missing the NCAA tournament, but we get close.
SEGMENT TWO: BIG TEN RUNDOWN
We go team-by-team using Bart Torvik’s 2020 projections as a jumping-off point to predict an approximate order of finish. We’re bullish on MSU and Maryland; less so on Penn State, Nebraska, and Northwestern. Can the conference produce more than six NCAA bids? There are a lot of teams in the middle of the pack that could find themselves on the bubble and not much in the way of locks beyond the aforementioned Spartans and Terps.
SEGMENT THREE: POOLE PARTY IN THE BAY AREA
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Iggy Brazdeikis to the Knicks is also discussed before we delve into a question about John Beilein’s ability to turn the Cavs into contenders. A lot has to go right for that to happen; will Dan Gilbert give him enough time?
SEGMENT FOUR: BASEBALL SCHOOL NOW
We don’t claim to know college baseball, so we spend a few minutes appreciating Michigan’s run to the championship series. Alex used to play backyard football with Karl Kaufmann and somehow his crew took a while to figure out that the kid with an arm-cannon should play quarterback.
SONGS:
"Come On Home" — Franz Ferdinand
"What is Success"— Allen Toussaint
"Interlude" — Lamont Dozier
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A certain player went in a certain round that nobody believed would happen.
Basketball is a hugely nuanced game that only a few understand. The dearth of basketball knowledge on this board is significant...but it is in general too.
Poole is a very talented basketball player. There is no amount of explaining that will inform those who do not know-particularly, as to why he was not more successful last year.
Well let us know, from that thin air you're breathing while on your high horse, everything we lowlifes don't understand.
Laughed out loud in my cubicle. Well played
Each and every one of us has our blind-spots-areas of ignorance. You can feel insulted if you wish but those of you who have unmercifully dissed this young man-you should be more ashamed and contrite than insulted. It is simply that basketball is a most unique sport-for what it requires in understanding and performing.
While I am personally an example of this by out-performing my apparent traits, here I have a childhood friend who is exhibit A. I had not seen Dean for many years but he showed up at my father's funeral several weeks ago and we had this conversation about the state of the game. Being a life-time Northern Indiana resident he is an ND fan and holds season tickets...and he was shaking his head at the offensive deficiencies of the college game. He finished by wondering if he should have gone into coaching. I think he would have been very frustrated with coaching. You see, Dean was 6'2", slow-footed and had a vertical of about 10 inches. But what he had was, seemingly, 5 sets of eyes, very quick hands and he could shoot the eyes out of the basket from inside of 30 feet. But his exceptional God-given gift was his sense of anticipation and how to play this game. He lettered 4 years, ppg average began with 15 as a freshman and went to over 30 as a junior and senior...and he averaged around 15 rebounds and 7 assists per game-and made everyone on the team better...You could not coach what he brought to the floor. He is in the Indiana HS Basketball Hall of Fame. The most uncanny player I have ever played with or against-and I have played against some great ones. This is what I am talking about-the game has an unteachable component to it...coaching can enhance or choke it but it cannot instill it. In general, people simply do not know this...and it is not a big deal-doesn't mean your a bad person...there are simply things we do not know.
Jordan got choked last year.
Rant over.
Having a buddy that was good at basketball has allowed you the vision to understand, drum roll... that good players are born with "it"? Congratulations on taking a side in the centuries old nature vs. nurture argument (reference the movie Trading Places for my preferred definitive take on the subject), and providing no information to the Poole debate.
My problem with Poole was not him but those who lauded him to the skies as a replacement for some serious graduation losses after playing as a 3 point gunner. It was too much to expect of him to do so, and he didn't. He made a good but not spectacular leap from his freshmen to sophomore seasons in some important areas, but he, for whatever reason, he was not fully in sync with the offense game-in-and-game out, nor was his defense fabulous, just good with lapses. Of course, he faced stiff defensive pressure with the limited shooting on the team as well. However, he has talent and size to become a starting shooting guard, although I would expect him to be a solid backup shooting guard instead. Wish him nothing but the best, and I am hoping that Eli Brooks becomes a solid game-in-game-out backup unless he makes a big leap, which does happen sometimes. Otherwise, crossing my fingers on DJ and the others. We don't know what we'll see in preseason or, when things get more difficult, during the regular season.
Ace - would you agree that the minutes breakdown seems pretty straight forward if we sign Wagner and total crap-shoot if we don't? Here's my logic for the 200 minutes per game if we sign him:
The locks:
- Simpson is playing 35 minutes as a senior.
- Teske is playing 30 minutes as a senior....more is unlikely due to his size and refs, less is only possible if Castleton demands more minutes
- Livers is playing 35 minutes as the only shooter and experienced wing. Could be at the 3 or the 4, but he's eating minutes.
The probables:
- Wagner steps on campus with the highest ceiling on the roster, fresh off playing high level competition, and the ability to play the two positions with the most concern - 2 & 3. I think he immediately gets the 30mpg that similar situations have previously warranted. (Iggy, Stauskas, Walton, GR3)
- Brooks is an imperfect player, but he's a good defender and he's the only person with any real experience who can play the 2. So let's give him 20 minutes.
- Johns is more of a wildcard than Brooks, but someone else has to play forward on this team, so let's assume he lives up to the original hype and earns 20 minutes.
- Castleton gets 10mpg backing up Teske. Maybe he steals more from Teske or maybe we see twin towers when he steals minutes from Johns...but let's go with 10mpg.
The rest:
- There are 20mpg leftover that will likely go to DDJ (back-up PG, some SG) and then either Bajema (2/3) or Nunez (2).
In that scenario we have a pretty obvious 9-man rotation:
- Simpson (35), DDJ (5)
- Brooks (20), Wagner (15), DDJ (5)
- Livers (15), Wagner (15), Bajema (10)
- Livers (20), Johns (20)
- Teske (30), Castleton (10)
The problem without Wagner is that you lose his 30mpg and there isn't an obvious place to put them because the roster is lacking forwards and flexibility. You've already maxed out the minutes for your best players, so those 30mpg are going to a combination of Brooks, Johns, Bajema, DDJ, Nunez, or Faulds.
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