jon teske

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

We're trying something new. Ace is going to stream the 2011 game against MSU at Breslin. He's calling it "MGoTheater 3000" and it may be a disaster or it may be awesome, but either way it's better than watching Kung Fu Panda for the millionth time. Stop by this evening. [Ed-Ace: There will be a post on the front page at 7 pm ET and the stream will start at 8.]

Until then: marble racing. Sports!

Close enough!

I HOPE YOU LIKE YOUR CHILDREN AND/OR ROOMMATES. Coronavirus sequestration update: Selection Sunday came and went without brackets. State after state has closed bars and restaurants after The Youngs continued to gather in large sweaty masses. The Olds are little better:

The Villages is one of the largest retirement developments in the United States, with 125,000 residents living on more than 15,000 acres. When asked on the “Villages Friendly Folks” Facebook page how they were managing the coronavirus, a majority of people sided with Przybylowicz, saying the crisis is being overblown.

Against mounting advice from federal and private health experts, many expressed a determination to move forward with travel excursions, such as cruises. But that is getting harder to do.

Things aren't looking too good on the social distancing front.

[After THE JUMP: listen to that moist goatee]

a master in chaos [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Previously: Part One, Part Two. If you're looking for the Rutgers preview it's here.

You're definitely going to want to at least read part two of this series, which explains the stats I'm using below and details the 2009-14 seasons, before moving on to the rest of this post. Ideally, you'll read part one, as well.

Now that you're caught up, let's get to it.

2014-15: Bad Wheels

Team Stats: 27.7% pick-and-rolls + passes (#36 in country), 0.911 points per play (#62)

The Ballhandlers:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Spike Albrecht 65 0.815 (70%) 98 1.276 (92%) 178 1.092 (93%) 36.5%
Caris LeVert 87 0.644 (35%) 58 0.862 (34%) 145 0.731 (28%) 60.0%
Derrick Walton 52 0.635 (33%) 61 0.967 (54%) 113 0.814 (47%) 46.0%
Zak Irvin 60 0.783 (63%) 43 1.395 (96%) 103 1.039 (90%) 58.3%
MAAR 39 0.872 (79%) 19 1.737 (100%) 58 1.155 (96%) 67.2%

The Screeners:

  Pop Plays (%) Pop PPP (%ile) Roll Plays Roll PPP (%ile) Slip Plays (%) Slip PPP (%ile) Overall Plays Overall PPP (%ile)
Max Bielfeldt 12 (36.4%) 1.167 (88%) 19 (57.6%) 1.000 (30%) 2 (6.1%) 2.000 (—) 33 1.121 (76%)
Ricky Doyle 1 (3.6%) 2.000 (—) 26 (92.9%) 1.308 (74%) 1 (3.6%) 0.000 (—) 28 1.286 (90%)
Zak Irvin 9 (69.2%) 1.222 (—) 4 (30.8%) 2.000 (—) 13 1.462 (96%)
Mark Donnal 1 (10%) 3.000 (—) 9 (90%) 1.556 (—) 10 1.700 (99%)

I almost didn't include this season or the next because of Michigan's injury issues, then decided it was useful to see what happens when a team's two best perimeter players get hurt in the same season.

While neither Caris LeVert nor Derrick Walton were producing particularly well in the pick-and-roll before their respective foot injuries, we saw later that these injuries delayed breakouts into effective players—Walton, in particular, eventually became a great P&R ballhandler.

The players that remained were effective but one-dimensional. Spike Albrecht drove to pass. Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman hunted shots off of screens. Irvin, defying reputation, struck the best balance between shooting and passing, and he was a very effective passer. Only MAAR was above-average at generating his own offense off of screens, though.

Derrick Walton's foot injury stunted a developing rapport with Ricky Doyle

Michigan was also working with a limited group of finishers. Ricky Doyle was the best roll man but was a roll man only. Max Bielfedlt(!) ended up with the most plays among screeners even though he was a 30th-percentile finisher on the roll; he salvaged decent efficiency with some pick-and-pop jumpers. If Zak Irvin was setting a screen, it was to pop or slip for a jump shot.

This marks the first season since 2008-09 that Michigan's pick-and-roll usage went down; they also slipped 40 spots in the efficiency rankings. This team was going to drop off with the departures of Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Jordan Morgan, then injuries made matters worse. Even if LeVert and Walton weren't high-level P&R ballhandlers at this point, their spot-up shooting could've helped.

Even with all that, Michigan's pick-and-roll offense ranked in the 83rd percentile by points per play. They weren't elite; they were still good. They just couldn't build the offense around it to the extent they had the previous year.

2015-16: Bad Wheels 2

Team Stats: 30.5% pick-and-rolls + passes (#22 in country), 0.923 points per play (#80)

The Ballhandlers:

  P&R Plays (Own Offense) PPP on Own Offense (%ile) P&R Plays (Passes) PPP on Passes (%ile) Total P&R Plays Overall P&R PPP. (%ile) Keep %
Derrick Walton 128 0.711 (44%) 120 1.000 (59%) 248 0.851 (51%) 51.6%
Zak Irvin 149 0.826 (68%) 98 1.306 (93%) 247 1.016 (86%) 60.3%
Caris LeVert 57 0.877 (77%) 62 0.855 (32%) 119 0.866 (54%) 47.9%
MAAR 67 0.910 (82%) 41 0.805 (24%) 108 0.870 (55%) 62.0%
Duncan Robinson 19 0.632 (29%) 17 0.647 (9%) 36 0.639 (14%) 52.8%

The Screeners:

  Pop Plays (%) Pop PPP (%ile) Roll Plays Roll PPP (%ile) Slip Plays (%) Slip PPP (%ile) Overall Plays Overall PPP (%ile)
Mark Donnal 12 (21.8%) 0.500 (12%) 40 (72.7%) 1.250 (60%) 3 (5.5%) 0.667 (—) 55 1.055 (60%)
Ricky Doyle 1 (2.9%) 2.000 (—) 30 (88.2%) 1.200 (54%) 3 (8.8%) 0.333 (—) 34 1.147 (73%)
Moe Wagner 3 (15.8%) 1.667 (—) 16 (84.2%) 1.375 (77%) 19 1.421 (95%)
DJ Wilson 9 (64.3%) 0.556 (—) 4 (28.6%) 1.500 (—) 1 (7.1%) 0.000 (—) 14 0.786 (24%)
Zak Irvin 9 (81.8%) 1.000 (—) 2 (18.2%) 0.000 (—) 11 0.818 (27%)

An unfortunate repeat, as Walton's previous foot injury sapped his ability to finish at the rim and LeVert—who'd improved considerably as a scorer off the high screen—again lost most of the season to a bad wheel.

Beilein increased the volume past where it had been in 2013-14 and the team's PPP slightly increased, though they came out worse compared to the rest of the country. Irvin was easily the team's best P&R ballhandler, continuing to pass at a high level while making enough pull-up jumpers to be relatively effective as a scorer.

some of those jumpers were rather important

MAAR pulled off a tough feat, averaging more PPP using his own offense than when he passed; that's very much a good news/bad news situation.

The roll men remained limited. This was the year Ricky Doyle seemingly lost the ability to catch and finish, so Mark Donnal ended up as the primary screener. Neither graded out particularly well. The center who did: enigmatic freshman Moe Wagner, who scored well as a roll man and flashed the ability to pop out and hit jumpers.

[Hit THE JUMP for Michigan exploring that a bit more.]

[David Wilcomes]

We talked about these in advance and came to a consensus on the following:

ALL-DISAPPOINTMENT TEAM

image

Other candidates were Gabe Kalscheur, Trent Frazier, and to a much lesser degree Aaron Henry and Franz's three-point shooting only.

Brian: We're not trying to dump on guys but it is worth noting the surprises on the other side of the ledger. No one was more cursed than Poor Damn Aaron Wheeler, who had a miraculously bad year. He went from a 58/37 shooter to 34/22 and hit 8 of his 55 twos in Big Ten play. This was a guy who both Ace and I expected to have a breakout season.

Ace: He’s both the most obvious choice and the one I hate mentioning because it was sad to watch him play. The misses clearly got into his head.

Brian: Watching a Wheeler three hit every part of the rim and then bounce out was agonizing even when Michigan was playing Purdue.

Seth: He remained a solid defender and board presence but yeeesh.

Ace: Painter had no choice:

Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 7.53.26 PM

Brian: We entered the year talking about Jon Teske as a guy neck and neck with Tillman for best C in the league. Fast forward to now: Brendan Quinn put nine centers on his three ABT teams, and Teske didn't make it.

Ace: You could’ve knocked me over with a feather if you’d told me that this offseason but now there’s no argument. He got put in the tough position of having his role increase while also being asked to do a lot of new things for a new coach but the strong crop of centers were also responsible for exposing his limitations.

Brian: Michigan is 15th percentile in post-up D per Synergy, which is up from 2nd midseason. Teske dropped 30 points of ORTG as he went from a no TO roll guy to a very awkward post player.

Seth: Juwan Howard: Post Whisperer is one of many things we got wrong about the transition.

Ace: Uh. Big Country, man.

Seth: At least insofar as Teske was concerned.

Brian: Teske was... wait for it... shoehorned into a role that he was very unsuited for. Probably the biggest issue with Howard's year 1.

[After THE JUMP: We are done with that word promise]

Michigan hasn't cracked 30% from three in six games 

a bittersweet farewell 

thank you, X and Sleep

rained on again

can we run this back, we know how to win it now

hot damn

not like 80s music, like putting weird things together and having it work... okay like 80s music 

two bigs ftw

x gave it to them every which way

shockingly, Isaiah Livers's presence is rather important to Michigan's success