hope you like twos [Paul Sherman]

Basketbullets: That Mystery Solved Comment Count

Brian March 9th, 2020 at 1:43 PM

3/8/2020 – Michigan 70, Maryland 83 – 19-12, 10-10 Big Ten

Maryland is not known for looking particularly… uh… coached even when they're pretty good. Your author has taken in many of their games this season, one in which they won a share of the title in the toughest Big Ten ever. Despite the results the number one thing I've thought during these games is DO SOMETHING! RUN A PLAY!

This is a common experience.

In situations like these it's always wise to self-administer a Dunning-Krueger check. I am not a basketball coach. I am an amateur internet basketball sleuth.

Am I out of touch? Nope! It's the children who are wrong.

The perception is in fact reality. Matt Painter takes guys who look like NAIA dudes and has them run in Mandelbrot loops until some guy's open in the corner; Mark Turgeon runs pick and roll, the end.

So it felt pretty bad in the first half when Michigan was struggling to find shots against a Maryland team that was doing some things on offense that weren't "I dunno dribble around and jack something up." Then the TV cut to a Maryland huddle, which featured DeAndre Haynes exhorting the Terrapins about something or other while Mark Turgeon looked on. He was probably thinking "man, DeAndre is doing a really good job."

Cold comfort, but at least the world made a little more sense.

[After THE JUMP: same old story]

49636767688_fb7ce10b0d_k

don't make me hold the picture again [Sherman]

Another five out offense. Jalen Smith's only make from three was the runner at the end of the first half—shakes fist in general direction of universe—but this was another mobile stretch five setting Michigan's defense on fire with his gravity even if he wasn't personally lighting it up from behind the arc. Maryland shot 66% on twos largely because they were 13/16 at the rim. Smith got up a decent look on a pick and pop on Maryland's first possession (Eli Brooks came over to get a hand in Smith's face), and then Michigan went away from drop coverage for a long time.

The hedging went poorly.

Very poorly.

Michigan's lost the defensive cohesion that they were so good at last year, and seemed to have back during their February run where drop coverage worked just fine against centers with no stretch.

This extends beyond just five out stuff. Michigan gave up multiple buckets at the rim on which Michigan guys got lost because they don't know what they're doing:

It has the feel of a team that's scrambling to get something together. Wisconsin rather looms in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament if Michigan is able to beat Rutgers.

49637548207_7af2d94e6b_k

went well until the shot went up [Sherman]

Tough shots are tough shots even if they go in. Poor damn David DeJulius got matched on Anthony Cowan for a fair bit of this game; Cowan took CowanShots™ that happened to go in.

This happened to Michigan once before, during the Stoneface MAAR game. X chased Cowan around the court only for Cowan to raise up and hit a bunch of off the dribble stuff that the observer files under "bullshit that went down." Cowan took contact on the way up on this and still hit it:

This is still Cowan's MO. He's shooting 46/29 in Big Ten play. He gets stuck with a lot of the garbage Turgeon's lack of an offense heaps on his players, with almost a quarter of his FGAs in the last five seconds of the shot clock. He is shockingly efficient given his average quality of look because he doesn't turn the ball over much and gets to the line a ton, where he converts at an 81% rate.

Michigan didn't let him get to the line until Eat Your Liver time and forced a majority of his shots into the midrange, where he's hitting 24% on the season. He hit 4/6 there, because trident's cursed. Only one of his three shots at the rim was against DDJ and that was the spinning drive on which Cowan took heavy contact and still finished.

This was a notably good defensive performance from DDJ against a tough customer even if the shots went down.

Also in DDJ. He had 20 points and singlehandedly kept the game from turning into a blowout in the first half. None of his shots were off-the-dribble threes, and he drove the lane for a floater or two. Zero assists but zero turnovers.

DDJ is a bit like Johns in that you don't really know what you're going to get out of him on any particular day. In the three previous games he had 1, 2, and 2 points on walk-on usage. He'll be a major X-factor next year.

49637562442_baa10bd351_k

cumong man [Sherman]

Trident cursed part XXVII. Ayala and Wiggins, who are collectively shooting under 30% from three on the season, went 6/8. Ayala's were particularly goofy, with a pull up almost from the logo stuck in there. Michigan had a little fortune that Smith went 1/5, except for the fact that the 1 was a running pull up from 30 feet just before the half.

On the other end of the floor Michigan went 6/20 and had Brooks and Livers go 0/8. Michigan hasn't cracked 30% from behind the line in six games. They're #1 in two point shooting and #13 in three-point shooting in conference play. Howard should start holding up a picture of Duncan Robinson?

Basketball needs advantage calls. This should be a bucket for Davis.

A foul on the floor that is immediately followed by a shot attempt should count. If you don't want to give a free throw, fine.

Post shootin'. Slight adaptation on the first possession, which turned into a Teske elbow jumper that was way short. He hit the opener against Nebraska, but even that game was kind of a negative referendum on Teske's post efficiency. He ended up 5/9 from two in that game, which is fine. The issue is that aside from one shot where he turned to the baseline and got to put something off the backboard everything was the hook. The hook is… fine, but it says everything about Teske's post game that he ended up with zero shots at the rim against Nebraska. (Even if I think he got shorted that baseline one.)

Comments

ak47

March 9th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^

Ayala and Wiggins were both 40% 3 pt guys as freshman last year and them not being ass was part of the MD is probably the most talented team in the conference take in pre-season and another referendum on Turgeon the coach. But the point being is they are both guys with good strokes having a bad year in a broken offense, if you give them open shots you shouldn't actually be that surprised they go down. Really only one of Ayala's threes was weird, everything else from them was open looks with space shooting over guys shorter than them. I like all of DDJ, Simpson, and Brooks but we really need some taller guards.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^

Yep, completely agree on Wiggins and Ayala.  They were both over 40% last year.  This blog likes to talk about how small a full season sample is in terms of 3 pt shooting and that's the case with Ayala and Wiggins.  They're not the scrubs their shooting percentages this year would suggest. 

In several of the cases it did seem to be a case of not respecting them enough.

Interestingly, Wagner was defending on most of their made threes (or at least 3 of the 6 immediately come to mind).

On one, he got caught in no man's land on a Cowan drive and kick that was poorly played (he only half came down to help but didn't come all the way and still lost Ayala)

On one he kind of tried to go under a ball screen and Wiggins just shot it on him.  DDJ was guarding the screener so they possibly had a switch on and maybe DDJ blew that.

On the Ayala 30 foot pull up, Wagner gave him a lot of space and didn't have his hands up.  On the one hand, it was a tough shot but on the other the shot clock was winding down.  In that case, you have to play up tighter on a guy and force him to drive.  He doesn't have time to drive and kick so force the drive into help.

Denard In Space

March 9th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^

This year especially the blog has seemed to be over-reliant on predictive metrics in their write-ups, both in preview and review of the games. It is kind of telling to see analysis completely write off shooters like (most recently) Ayala and Wiggins as 3 point threats and then watch them go off. Even when there was grousing about straight-line drives from Wisconsin being so unlikely, I was confused: did we forget Payton Pritchard (very good, not a dominant physical force) doing that at will earlier in the year? 

It reminds me of when I was in high school and watched Kelvin Torbert play at one of the local All-Star games that a friend of mine played in. Torbert was a heralded All-American prospect that ended up under the tutelage of a malevolent gnome in East Lansing. He was the number two prospect in the country over notable players like TJ Ford (eventual NPOY), just behind Eddie Curry at number one and ahead of Tyson Chandler (no. 2 & 3 NBA draft picks that year out of high school).

In the all-star game he was a god, and couldn't miss anything; I thought I was watching the next MJ. But in his first two years in EL, he shot 31 and 32%  from 3, respectively. Did that make him a bad shooter, even as a sophomore with an entire year of data to support his middling shooting numbers? Of course not! Literally any guy playing at this level that's not a 9 foot tall ogre can do all of the basic basketball things we imagine them to be bad at, and usually extremely well. It's naive to assume athletes at this level are going to miss open shots.

My point being that I hope the insight gained from this year will add balance to the adherence to predictive stats with a little more "eye test" and "actually watching basketball." 

All that being said, I do agree that 2 banked-in threes in a single game is a fuck-you from the basketball gods.  

 

mGrowOld

March 9th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^

I'll try to help.

Maryland's HC doesnt have too many set plays......something, something.......we struggle against stretch 5's......something, something....Maryland made shots they dont normally make....something, something.....Michigan defense looked confused......something, something......the end.

And then I'm pretty sure there was a whole section about mattresses.   Or am I confusing that with another game summary?

Ali G Bomaye

March 9th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^

The reason basketball doesn't have advantage calls is because they would incentivize fouling hard. If a guy gets to count a shot stemming from action after the foul, then defenders will want to make sure there's no action after the foul. The last thing we want to do is encourage more flagrant fouls (and flagrant foul reviews).

jmblue

March 9th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^

If a guy gets to count a shot stemming from action after the foul, then defenders will want to make sure there's no action after the foul.

Having only five personal fouls should eliminate most of that problem.  Most of the time, committing a personal foul to avoid giving up one basket is a poor tradeoff.  

blue90

March 9th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^

Three not great games in a row! The offense was cooking but man this was not much of a defensive battle.  It seems that players who aren't good at certain things on average are good at them against us, this game it happened to be Wiggins and Ayala on 3's, next game its going to be something else. We have certainly lost our defensive skill.

I have been very unimpressed with Teske and Z down the stretch. Z is still dealing assists but he lacks the ability to take over a game and can't close out a game the way Trey could or Derrick. Teske has completely lost his flair from the beginning of the season and can't find it anywhere.

trueblueintexas

March 9th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^

I will appreciate a guy like Teske for everything he has given UM over his 4 years. Unfortunately, the switch from Beilein to Howard has exposed a lot of the deficiencies in his game. It is painful watching him try to play at the speed Howard wants his team to move at now. It's better for the team (can't really push half court sets all day when all of your guards are 6'0 or less). I really feel bad for Teske because I doubt he gets much of a look from the NBA now. 

mGrowOld

March 9th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^

First off I absolutely agree with you that Teske isnt sniffing the NBA.

Secondly, I would've bet (and lost) my house that Duncan Robinson wouldn't have sniffed the NBA either - much less set three point shooting records for Miami once he left Michigan so what the fuck do I know.

Say hello to Jon Teske - NBA superstar I guess.

ak47

March 9th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^

I mean obviously Duncan Robinson is a surprise but he also clearly had an elite skill while at Michigan in his 3 pt shot and at 6'7 was always going to be able to get it off. Credit to the work he has done in the NBA in terms of coming hard off screens in a shooting position to maximize that skill. 

Teske has no elite skill. He isn't athletic, can't bully smaller guys, isn't a rim protector, can't stretch the floor, and can't defend on the perimeter effectively. He has no elite skill at the college level, let alone at the NBA level. I'd love to be wrong but while I would have only given Robinson a 1% chance to make the NBA, if picked to choose between the two he always would get picked, and get picked over a guy like Izzy too. Having an elite skill is helpful, especially if that elite skill happens to come at the same time its the most in demand skill in the nba

jmblue

March 9th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^

For some reason I think Teske is going to get his 3pt shot fixed after college.  Some shooting instructor is going to find a way to correct that flat arc and he's going to shoot a higher percentage than he is now.  It might happen in Europe instead of the NBA, though.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2020 at 3:41 PM ^

It's a little concerning that Michigan still doesn't really seem to know what they want to do on defense a full season in, despite having upperclassmen that have led elite defenses the past two years.  They have a blueprint and are still all over the place.

These hedges went poorly because they're so soft they might as well be drop coverage.  Teske is four feet into the lane on the one where Cowan splits the trap and goes right by him. Why are you getting so deep into the paint when your man and the ball aren't even there yet? You know a ball screen is coming.  He literally ran himself out of position to properly hedge that screen.

I absolutely hate the soft hedge on ball screens.  Doesn't stone the ball handler, doesn't defend a roll as well as drop, doesn't really do anything.

Hedge it hard and stone him in place so you 1) make it easier for the guy defending the ball to recover 2) make it harder on the ball-handler to find open guys because you're right up on him and 3) force the ball handler to go wide around you to give your tagger more time to rotate.

This is something Davis probably can't do (which is why he shouldn't be playing against stretch 5s, play Johns at the 5!), but Teske was very good at it for two years.

The players also just don't seem as focused. Maybe it's because it was a largely meaningless road game, but I don't think the coaches are holding them accountable much. In the game column, I pointed out that play you clipped here where Simpson just gets caught ball watching. Just a dumb, lazy play.  They're not as focused as they've been in the past.

MNWolverine2

March 9th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^

This times 1000x.  The attention to detail this year is not there and has gotten worse throughout the season.  Beilien ( and Izzo FWIW), hold you accountable to every detail and mistake.  A "players coach" is easier to play for because they let you play through it.  The result is missed switches, bad passes, etc. that lead to 6-7 points that decide games.

Especially come tournament time.

ak47

March 9th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^

I mean its transition costs. College coaches don't get that much practice time, Howard is still learning his players. We came in with the drop coverage, that got burned by stretch fives against Wisconsin and OSU so we went with the hard hedge but it turned out the rotations just weren't there and it needs more practice in the same way we needed to improve our rotations off doubling in the post after getting burned early in the year. Last years defense was great because it could switch freely across multiple positions, any of Poole/Iggy/Livers/Matthews could successfully guard 1-4 on a single possession and not get beat off the dribble or bullied in the post. This year the only guys not getting beat consistently off the dribble are Simpson and Brooks and both of those guys are short meaning they can really only cover 1-2 positions. Livers just isn't the same because of his injury and Wagner is still a baby stick learning and getting better. So you are no longer switchable on the perimeter which leads to rotations that put you in bad matchups you have to overcompensate for. That is tough to scheme around.

This team was projected to land on the right side of the bubble before the season started, given that expectation they've over performed by getting to the 6/7 seed line. Howard has also managed to coach this island of misfit toys to a higher kenpom offensive rating than last year while still maintaining a top 25 ish defense. If you are dissapointed with the coaching its because you have rose colored glass and think Beilein was literally god. Howard did as well as could be expected.

trueblueintexas

March 9th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^

I agree for the most part with this assessment except Simpson is getting blown by multiple times a game. If you are the leader and have made your calling on defense, I don't care how distracted you are trying to get everyone else to do the right thing, STOP YOUR GUY FIRST! 

It seems as though with the extra offensive load put on his plate Simpson sometimes just says F-It on some defensive assignments. I don't remember that happening very often the last two years. 

snarling wolverine

March 9th, 2020 at 5:15 PM ^

I think it started last year.  He shut down Winston when he was a sophomore but got outplayed pretty badly last year.  Some have speculated that he's added muscle and it's affected his quickness.  Who knows.

In any event, yeah, the #1 thing you've got to do in any defensive scheme is stop the ball.  If your point guard is getting beaten regularly, you're going to have problems.

abertain

March 9th, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^

Yeah. I watched Simpson for a few possessions in a row, and they were all pretty poor, mostly from a lack of effort, tbh. He just kept pointing for switches every time he got screened, and he also had his guy blow by him. IDK. Maybe he's worn out from shouldering so much of the offense? If so, they need to slide some of his minutes to DDJ because you need to play both ends. 

Jordan2323

March 9th, 2020 at 8:45 PM ^

I'm like the others here, Simpson is no longer a great defender. He stands straight up and I think that's why he gets blown by. I think Brooks and Franz are our best defenders. They unfortunately are two of our best outside shooters as well. Getting tired on defense has to be affecting their outside shot. 

snarling wolverine

March 9th, 2020 at 4:47 PM ^

The result is missed switches, bad passes, etc. that lead to 6-7 points that decide games.

We haven't been as strong defensively, obviously (losing Charles Matthews and Simpson's mysterious decline at that end have a lot to do with it).  But if you're suggesting that we're a turnover-prone team, that is some serious confirmation bias at work.   Michigan commits the 14th-fewest turnovers per game nationally, out of 350 teams.

BornInAA

March 9th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^

Based on recent play, I predict 1 round then out in Big Ten Tourney then 1 round and out in the bracket.

We will be 6th or 7th seed, playing in 2nd round  (as it stands now) either Duke, Creighton, Villanova, Kentucky, MSU, Florida St, Seton Hall or San Diego St.

Anything else would be above expectations.

However, it is March Madness and if the whole team gets hot - who knows?

Steve in PA

March 9th, 2020 at 8:19 PM ^

A lot of high level teams don't really run plays.  They run continuity sets.  Virginia, for example, runs primarily what they call Blocker-Mover.  Wisconsin ran Swing forever.  I haven't watched enough Maryland to know what they run.  Nor do i care.

I just watched Michigan's defense look atrocious yesterday.  Repeatedly defenders were giving up straightline drives to the basket by playing lazy defense and being out of position.  That made them over-reliant on help which opened up 3's.

Having lockdown defenders like Rahk and Matthews is sorely missed.