2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half, Power Rankings Upper Half, Guards, Wings, Bigs 

Now that we have finished the roster section of this season preview, we get into the last installment: our annual 5 Questions, 5 Answers piece. Throughout the preview's other pieces, I hinted at some of the answers listed in this article but didn't have the opportunity to properly spell them out. Now I do. So here we will tackle those questions head on, looking at the rotation, how the team's macro units (offense and defense) shape up, and the schedule: 

1. What’s the minutes rotation going to look like?

This answer isn’t purely based on my intuition but is also influenced by the insider nuggets that have been leaking out of practice, in addition to what we learned at the exhibition. The exhibition starting lineup matched what we'd been hearing from practice:

D. Jones – Brooks – Houstan – Johns Jr. – Dickinson

The second team, for the most part, matched what we'd been hearing, with Bufkin, Terrance Williams, and Diabate all playing significant roles off the bench. The part that surprised me was seeing 13 minutes for Adrien Nuñez, but it remains to be seen how much of that was related to the injuries to Frankie Collins and Zeb Jackson, two direct competitors for Nuñez's minutes who are apparently banged up right now. My conjecture remains very skeptical on Nuñez's chance of sticking in the rotation based on how every other attempt to put him in the rotation in his NCAA career has ended, so I still see the second team looking like this: 

Collins – Bufkin – Z. Jackson – T. Williams – Diabate

This second team may take until the second half of the season to really materialize (especially at the guard position) since freshman are listed at a number of spots. With that in mind, I think this is a rough sketch of the minutes rotation, based on what I’ve assigned to each player as their “role” during each positional preview:

• PG: Jones 30 minutes, Brooks 5 minutes, Collins 5 minutes
• SG: Brooks 28 minutes, Bufkin 10 minutes, Jackson 2 minutes
• SF: Houstan 25 minutes, Williams 10 minutes, Jackson 5 minutes
• PF: Johns Jr. 25 minutes, Diabate 5-8 minutes, Williams 5-10 minutes
• C: Dickinson 25-30 minutes, Diabate 10-15 minutes

It is very possible that Houstan could inch closer to 30 minutes as the season goes along if he’s playing well. Similarly, it’s possible that Bufkin and Collins may not hit their projection early in the season but grow into it as the year comes along. Diabate may spend more time at the PF position next to Dickinson if the two show they can execute at a high level on both ends of the court next to each other. It’s an intriguing possibility of running the two twin towers out there, but we have to see it click first before getting too high on it. Lastly, Zeb Jackson's role listed here is pretty minor and it wouldn't be hard to see him getting squeezed out when it's time to tighten the bench in March. The same could be said for Collins if he has a rough first season like many young B1G PGs do. 

The player whose projection I feel most sure about outside of the projected starters is Terrance Williams II. I have him slated for 15-20 minutes between the SF and PF position and I am reasonably confident in that. Juwan loves T-Will and if he has indeed made significant improvements to his game— including an operational three-point shot— I think he’s the team’s sixth man, a la Chaundee Brown last season, getting time at multiple positions and possibly closing games out because of his defensive intensity and motor.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Offense, Defense, and Schedule!]

This could be a big part of the answer [MG Campredon]

2. How does Michigan replace the shooting they lost in the offseason?

The Wolverines finished last season with the 9th offense in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric due in big part to their deadly three-point shooting. Michigan finished 13th in 3PT% last season, shooting 38.1% from beyond the arc, and had five players who were, come February, knock down perimeter shooters on high volume. Mike Smith shot 41.8%, Chaundee Brown shot 41.9%, Isaiah Livers shot 43.1%, Eli Brooks shot 39.6%, and though Franz Wagner was only 34.3% for the season, he shot north of 40% for a 17-game stretch spanning late December until mid-March. The best version of Michigan’s offense, the one that existed in January and February, saw them shovel in threes that were open because of the threat of Hunter Dickinson.

The threat of Hunter Dickinson is still here, but four of the five shooters I mentioned are not, including the three best shooters by percentage from last season. That’s a lot of shooting talent to lose, especially on a team that made it a feature of the offense. So, what’s the plan to replace all those shooters?

If Caleb Houstan can shoot like he did at Montverde Academy, that’s a deadly high-volume shooter who could be as close to a 1:1 substitution for Isaiah Livers as is reasonably possible to expect for a freshman. Brandon Johns Jr. shot 36.8% last season and is at 35.1% for his career, but on very, very low volume. If he could do that over a full season of high volume, that’s a perfectly acceptable clip to keep Michigan dangerous from distance, but it is a real question mark.

DeVante’ Jones is another mystery. He also shot 36.8% last year, and did it on high volume, but that was an outlier for his career, sitting nearly 3.5 points above his career average. Much like Johns, if Jones simply repeats last season’s clip, that’s fine. It’s a come-down from Smith’s sizzling number, but it’s still a dangerous stroke. The concern is if it slips back towards his career number, because his volume has always been high, meaning that the two seasons he shot <34% should be more predictive than the one he shot close to 37%. Unless there are mechanical improvements he’s made. Tough to say, and we will see.

Beyond that, the question gets interesting. Michigan didn’t get much bench shooting last year beyond Chaundee Brown, but now they have more places to potentially get some. Kobe Bufkin might not be in line for a massive role, but he’s marketed as a plus-shooter at the NCAA level. Terrance Williams II supposedly has worked to massively improve his shot in the offseason and was thought to be a decent shooter exiting HS. Hunter Dickinson has also worked to add a three-point shot to his repertoire after having none last year, and Moussa Diabate could be a decent three-point shooter.

If your starters shoot the following:

Jones (36%)

Brooks (39%)

Houstan (38%)

Johns Jr. (35%)

And you get two of Bufkin/T-Will/Diabate/Dickinson to be a decent three-point shooter, Michigan should be fine. The offense will probably have to shift away from as heavy of a reliance on the three, but that may be in the cards anyway with Jones’ ability to get to the rim and score inside the arc being noticeably better than Smith's. But if Houstan has a freshman clunker year, or the Williams’ improvement is a mirage, or Brandon Johns Jr.’s clip doesn’t hold up through higher volume, Michigan’s offense could be in trouble (or in need of a huge overhaul). To me it’s one of the biggest questions that could derail the team’s season, but it’s worth remembering that no one expected Brown or Smith to shoot >40% last season. Maybe there will be another pleasant surprise or two in the cards this year. 

Moussa and HD together could lead to defensive dominance [Campredon]

3. So the defense is going to be murderous, right?

Michigan’s defense ranked 4th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric last season and then adds DeVante Jones’ from the transfer portal, who profiles as a star thief in the back court, as well as Moussa Diabate, who projects to be a switch-everything rim protecting big. And both players will be replacing two of the weakest defensive pieces on the team in Mike Smith and Austin Davis. In general, I agree with the premise of this question. Michigan should have a very good defense on their hands, being able to roll out a suffocating tandem at the guard spot of Jones and Brooks, having a good defender at the wing in Johns, and a superb defensive center in Dickinson, not to mention being able to roll Diabate out there, as well as Williams off the bench. Houstan at least should be okay defensively.

All of this should be very good, but there’s one reason why I’m hesitant to reflexively say that the defense will definitely be improved from last year, and it’s two words: Franz Wagner. In watching the tape from last season again to prepare to write the season preview, it made me appreciate Wagner’s defensive brilliance even more than I did watching it in real time. Franz’s length and awareness on the court helped erase slight faults from other players, and his ability to guard other teams' best wings, switch with ease, and understand the intricacies of help defense was invaluable to the team. I mean, just come on man:

Let’s not forget that Franz stuffed a top five NBA draft pick, one who is now excelling at the NBA level in Toronto (Scottie Barnes), in a locker last season. He was a helluva player (Franz himself is off to a great start to his NBA career too in Orlando), and we need to be cognizant of what that loss means in setting preseason expectations for the defense.

Michigan is clearly upgrading at two key spots in the rotation defensively, but the change from Franz to Houstan is also a pretty significant downgrade, which is important to keep in mind if there are bumps in the road early this season. It may take a bit of time to adjust to not having a 6’9” wing with Gumby arms who can protect the rim and defend the perimeter on the roster anymore is all I’m saying. But yes, by the time March rolls around, this should be an elite defensive basketball team.

Jones' midrange game will be a big part of the late game scenarios for Michigan [Campredon]

4. Who takes the late game shots?

Basketball is a sport, like baseball, where you need to have a plan for what’s going to happen late in games. When the game is on the line, every team needs to have a go-to player to take that big shot, and the team around him needs to have faith in him to make it. Michigan, as we’ve mentioned, is losing a ton of shotmakers, so what’s the solution for this season’s late game scenarios?

I think it comes down to situation, depending on whether 1, 2, or 3 points are needed to win/tie the contest. Hunter Dickinson posting up has to be one of the main go-to options if Michigan only needs a two to tie/win the game, so long as he’s improved his right-handed hook so that the opponents can’t just sit and wait for the left. If HD is scoring at anything remotely resembling the two-point clip he did for most of last season, that’s one of your primary options. Dickinson’s free throw rate was top 15 in the conference during B1G play last year and he hit free throws at 73.9% for the season, so even if the shot doesn’t go down, there’s a solid chance he lands at the stripe and you can get points there too.

Beyond that, DeVante’ Jones seems to be a pretty logical option to be leaned on in late-game scenarios. His floater is a deadly weapon to bail him out late in shot clocks, and that could easily be used as a safety valve for Michigan as a go-to late-game option:

However, if Jones isn’t shooting threes at a good enough clip, if Michigan needs a triple, running a play to isolate Eli Brooks or perhaps Caleb Houstan for a spot-up look may have to be the go-to move. There are a number of weapons here at Juwan’s disposal and it may depend on how the season plays out and what the situation of the game is. Michigan probably won’t have an offensive alpha dog like what Derrick Walton Jr. had become down the stretch for the 2017 team, someone who can be counted on in all situations (since Dickinson will be limited as a perimeter option), but if they identify skills and correctly match them to the situation and the opponent, things should be alright.

Two more matchups with Illinois on the docket [Campredon]

5.) How do we feel about the schedule?

This is a fun one I added since there is no other part in this season preview to talk about how the schedule plays out, non-conference or conference. Michigan’s non-con is not as loaded as it had seemed before games with Kentucky and Oregon were scrapped, but there are still some intriguing contests. Buffalo begins Michigan’s season at Crisler Center tonight, and the Bulls are not your typical season-opener cupcake team. They don’t have Nate Oats anymore, but Buffalo is KenPom’s projected best MAC team, ranking inside the top 100, ahead of Minnesota, and not far behind Nebraska.

The meat of the non-conference schedule features a bunch of teams around ~50 in pre-season KenPom. Seton Hall (50th) comes to Crisler, Michigan will see either Arizona (47th) or Wichita State (62nd) out in Las Vegas, the Wolverines go to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina (40th), and then visit UCF (61st) on the second to last day of 2021. The best team Michigan sees, per those preseason expectations, is San Diego State (33rd), who visits Ann Arbor on Dec. 4. The remainder of the teams fall into categories of “layup” games, Tarleton State (216th), UNLV (130th), Prairie View A&M (224th), Southern Utah (122nd), PFW (239th).

As a whole, I’m pretty happy about the non-conference portion of the schedule. I would’ve liked to see one marquee game on the schedule, but overall there are a bunch of teams on the schedule who will test Michigan in different ways, without any being incredibly threatening. There’s a chance Michigan goes undefeated in the non-con, and there’s also the chance they drop 2-3 games. And the good thing is, there are no teams on there that profile to be in the disaster (250-350) zone that could tank your strength of schedule. Fine by me.

The conference schedule obviously doesn’t have too much variation because you’re going to play all thirteen teams at least once. The seven double-dip teams are Ohio State, Illinois, MSU, Purdue, Iowa, Rutgers, and Nebraska. Basically, your two rivals + the two teams projected to be elite besides Michigan (ILL/PUR) + a grab bag of three other teams who should be anywhere from bad to not threatening. Pretty neutral, and better than in 2018 and 2021, when Michigan got screwed by having their lone rivalry game against MSU (in 2018) and OSU (in 2021) on the road those years. The only place that the schedule might hypothetically advantage Michigan is that they host Maryland and don’t go to College Park, since the Terps could be pretty decent. Otherwise, the impact seems neutral to me.

There are a few games that look like potential schedule losses: having to go @Iowa and @Wisconsin twice in a four-day span in February seems very dangerous. @PSU just a few days after an emotional game @Purdue in early February could also be a trap game. And then obviously having to play Purdue and then @Illinois in back-to-back games in early January will not be easy. But you expect tough stretches like that in any schedule. This is a fair, reasonable draw and Michigan didn’t get screwed. That’s all you can ask for.