It's basketball preview season everyone! With the dawn of a new Michigan hoops campaign upon us, we will be counting down the final 8 days before the season opener with the usual content you've come to expect, except with me taking over the role of author. This week we will be scouting the competition in the B1G, which will be done in a power ranking format instead of tiers like past years. Today we'll look at the bottom half (14-8) and tomorrow we'll cover the upper half of the conference (7-1). Our expedition begins with a team that has a chance to be one of the worst teams in the conference in a while: 

 

14. Minnesota 

Projected lineup:

- G, Payton Willis

- G, EJ Stephens

- F, Jamison Battle

- F, Eric Curry

- C, Treyton Thompson

This is extremely grim. Richard Pitino is gone from Minneapolis and left behind a roster that is the basketball equivalent of a smoldering nuclear bomb crater. Nearly everyone who didn’t graduate opted to transfer somewhere else, leaving only Eric Curry and Isaiah Ihnen as the two returners, a pair of players with <100 ORTGs who played <50% of minutes. Oh and Ihnen is out for the year. Grim.

The reconstructed roster was put together entirely of transfers and recruits by new head coach Ben Johnson, who has never been a head coach before in the NCAA. Freshman big man Treyton Thompson is the only player above 6’9” on the roster, and he is Freshman Caris LeVert skinny. Jamison Battle transferred in from GW and was at least a decent A-10 player, and the same could be said of Payton Willis at Charleston, who has power conference experience in his past amid a tumultuous career path (actually was on Minnesota before, prior to transferring away and now transferring back).

EJ Stephens and Luke Loewe were both good players at small schools, too, but there are real reasons to wonder whether they can adjust to the B1G. The rest of the bench are players who were not even starters at mid-majors (Charlie Daniels), DII players (Daniel Ogele), JUCO players (Abdoulaye Thiam), or America East players who haven’t played in two seasons due to injury (Sean Sutherlin). Grim.

Even if some of these transfers hit, not all will, and all have never played with each other before, nor have they played with this new coach before. It’s going to be immensely painful in Minneapolis and they are the worst B1G by a wide margin. A trip to The Barn may not even be threatening this year.

 

13. Northwestern

Projected lineup:

- Boo Buie, G

- Ty Berry, G

- Chase Audige, G

- Robbie Beran, F

- Pete Nance, F

A Canadian who doesn’t follow college basketball intensely but has general cognitive knowledge of the subject recently said to me about Northwestern hoops “I remember them from one of those March Madness runs” and I had to note that it was one (1) run and the “run” was one NCAA Tournament win, but the combination of it seeming like the biggest deal in the world and Julia Louis-Dreyfuss going ballistic has resonated with sports fans everywhere and in the process, has bought Chris Collins a lot of time in Evanston. That time may be running out.

Since the 2017 team was bounced from that NCAA tourney, Northwestern is 45-74. Last year’s team seemed good for a few weeks but Eli Brooks dunking on them broke their soul and the ship crashed down to earth. The Wildcats lost 13 straight games before a three-game win streak closed the regular season, which came just before they scored only 46 points in the BTT, mercifully ending the Cats’ season.

Northwestern enters 2021-22 with Chris Collins fighting for his life. He returns the stellar Pete Nance, a big and long stretch five who is one of the conference’s better players, but the rest of the roster does not look particularly great. Optimism probably has a lot to do with a returning backcourt of Chase Audige and Boo Buie.

Audige is a plus defender but was also a central problem with Northwestern last season: he was the Wildcats’ highest usage piece and he put up a 86.9 ORTG with one of the worst eFG clips in the conference among players who played at least 60% of minutes. Want to know who else ranked in that cellar among eFG%? Boo Buie himself, owner of the best name in the B1G. Buie’s saving grace is that he’s a great distributor of the basketball, but those two guards need to be better on the offensive end.

Robbie Beran returns as an efficient, low usage stretch big who fits the five-out scheme that NW is trying to run. Returners Ty Berry and Ryan Young add depth, as does transfer Elyjah Williams, but this team hinges on what those big pieces, Nance, Audige, and Buie, can do. Last season wasn’t good enough and with rather few new pieces compared to similar B1G teams, it’s a matter of how much improvement Chris Collins can get out of a largely identical roster. Color me skeptical.

[AFTER THE JUMP: your least favorite B1G player returns]

 

John Harrar is back to bang around with other B1G bigs [MG Campredon]

12. Penn State

Projected Lineup:

- G, Sam Sessons

- G, Jalen Pickett

- G, Myles Dread

- F, Seth Lundy

- C, John Harrar

Micah Shrewsberry is the new sheriff in State College and this is the beginning of a rebuild. The good news is he is handed a veteran roster with multiple returning starters in Myles Dread, John Harrar, and Seth Lundy, not to mention Sam Sessoms, who played an awful lot last season. Among those guys, there are some pieces to work with.

Harrar is a low usage big who is ruthlessly efficient with his possessions, attacking the offensive glass and drawing fouls at an outrageous rate. Dread is a 3 & D Just A Shooter, and Seth Lundy posted a 101 ORTG in good usage. Not to mention that Sessoms was a very high usage player when on the floor in his first season after transferring from Binghamton. The less good news is that those players all have some issues. Sessoms couldn’t shoot at all and Harrar and Dread are yet to be guys who really command significant attention in the offense.

The other problem? The roster lacks depth. They lost three contributing pieces to the transition from last year’s interim arrangement to Shrewsberry (Brockington, Wheeler, Jones) and are importing three transfers. Beyond that, there are few other viable options and no freshmen on the roster. Jalen Pickett is a transfer from Siena, a talented player from a dinky conference (MAAC), while Jaheam "Boogie" Cornwall (Gardner-Webb) and Greg Lee (WMU) will be bench pieces. I think the hope has to be that you roughly replace the outgoing production with those three pieces, but even if they do, you’re only getting back what you lost from a team that went 11-14 last season.

KenPom was always higher on the Nittany Lions than the conventional wisdom (#40 in the nation) so perhaps getting back to “what they were last year” is better than the record indicates, but it’s a stretch to think that they can be a force in the B1G in year #1. If they do, it will probably be because Harrar and Sessoms bust out, and Shrewsberry does in an incredible coaching job. That shouldn’t be an expectation, though.

 

11. Nebraska

Projected lineup:

- G, Alonzo Verge Jr.

- G, Trey McGowens

- G, Bryce McGowens

- F, Lat Mayen

- F, Derrick Walker

Fred Hoiberg’s triumphant return to Nebraska is trying to not end the way that Scott Frost’s appears to be set to. It’s still too early to pass judgement, but perhaps only one year too early. This season is critical for the Huskers. Hoiberg has been slowly re-making the roster and it is a vastly more talented squad than the one he inherited two seasons ago. Now it’s a matter of whether Big Red can claw their way into the thick of the conference and fight for a tourney bid.

Optimism for this team is centered on Bryce McGowens, five-star freshman and the most talented player that the Huskers have ever recruited to Lincoln. The younger McGowens could be an elite player right away, potentially offering outside shooting in a long and athletic body. His older brother, Trey McGowens, soaked up a lot of possessions on a bad team last year but could be better suited in a reduced role, with real 3 & D potential as a dogged on-ball defender who shot 38% from distance. Alonzo Verge Jr. joins the party from ASU who Hoiberg will want to run the offense. The bad news is that Verge is a streaky shooter who has never seen a shot he didn't like. There’s potential for these three to settle into proper roles and be a force, but we are talking about two players who didn’t have >100 ORTG’s and a freshman. That’s why Nebraska slots in here.

Lat Mayen was a low usage floor spacing big man last season, while Derrick Walker had to sit out games before he got going a year ago. Reasonable improvement for both as they move into their senior seasons is the base expectation. Kobe Webster returns as a sixth man guard, while the remainder of the bench is built from the transfer market.

Like so many teams, Nebraska is hoping that a reconstructed roster featuring a multitude of additions to come out of the meatgrinder looking like a pristine hot dog. There’s talent here and I still like Hoiberg as a coach, but it needs to be seen to be believed. PBA is always a tough arena to play in though.

 

Guess who's baaaaaaack? [MG Campredon]

10. Wisconsin

Projected Lineup:

- G, Chucky Hepburn

- G, Brad Davison

- G, Jonathan Davis

- F, Tyler Wahl

- C, Chris Vogt

The state of the Wisconsin Badgers basketball program seems rather ominous after virtually every contributor on last year’s team chose to get the hell out of Madison in the offseason, leaving just the most punchable face in college basketball, Brad Davison, left on the roster. It’s been stated many times on this site how bad Davison was at shooting from two last season, but it bears repeating: Davison shot 27.5% from two, nearly 10% worse than the next closest player in the conference, among all players who played at least 40% of minutes. Bafflingly bad. Yet, Davison remains a potent three-point shooter and a good defender, when he’s not kneeing the opposition in the privates.

The rest of the roster is mostly chaos. Jonathan Davis and Tyler Wahl return as projected starters, Davis as a versatile defender who can shoot and should be primed for improvement, while Wahl broke into the lineup as 2021 went along but is yet to be a Wisconsin-classic stretch big. Neither player has been a high usage guy in their career, and that will be the big question, unless the Badgers want Davison to be taking more bad shots. My bet is on Davis to be the guy who asserts himself if one does.

Indeed, that usage question is the mystery for Wisconsin: their top four usage guys all depart in Trice, Potter, Ruevers, and Ford. Who is going to be taking the shots? Almost as important is the following question: who is running the point? Davison could play PG but is probably best suited being utilized somewhere else in the offense. Could it be three-star freshman Chucky Hepburn? What about Wake Forest transfer Jahcobi Neath? Neither of those options have been regular starters in major conference play before and given that the B1G is a tough league to play PG in, it could be a rough season at that position for Wisconsin.

Chris Vogt is the current favorite to start at center, a fifth-year player now on his third program. Vogt profiles as a rim protector with a high block rate, but like Wahl, he doesn’t give Wisconsin the floor spacing ability in the frontcourt that the Badgers are normally looking for. Ben Carlson and Steven Crowl were crowded out of real roles last season but could be options as sophomores if Vogt doesn’t stick.

As you can tell, this roster is a mess, a revolving door of players. Potential is there if they can settle on a point guard and Davis and/or Wahl make a leap, but I’m not terribly high on Wisconsin. The high degree of turnover, the bad vibes surrounding Gard and his relationship with the players in his program, and questions at key positions leave me to peg them rather low in the B1G standings. 

 

9. Iowa

Projected Lineup:

- G, Joe Toussaint

- G, Jordan Bohannon

- G, Connor McCaffery

- F, Keegan Murray

- F, Filip Rebraca

Iowa’s “dream” season ended like most Iowa seasons do: in a disappointing early exit from the NCAA Tournament. Now, this year represents the rude awakening after the dream, with Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp, and CJ Fredrick all off to new places, and losing a player of Garza’s caliber is a devastating blow. Garza finished 2nd in the KPOY race, won the Wooden Award, and finished with a 123.9 ORTG on a preposterous 30.4% usage. That’s a lot of production to replace.

Losing Garza means that Iowa lacks a go-to scorer, which leaves Jordan Bohannon as the most likely player to replace him. Bohannon remains a dazzling shooter from beyond the arc, 40% for his career on huge volume, but he adds nothing on the defensive end. And Bohannon has never had a Garza-like role, which could dent his shooting clip if he has to take more and more bad shots.

The rest of the team consists of uncertain pieces. Joe Toussaint seems likely to run the point, which is a prospect I wouldn’t feel great about if I were a Hawkeyes fan. Toussaint has shown the ability to get to the rack but he’s a turnover-prone guard who can’t shoot at all. Not exactly what you think of when you think about Iowa. On the other end of the starting lineup, Filip Rebraca transfers in from North Dakota to be the starting center. Rebraca is definitely not Luka Garza, but he fits the same stretch five mold as one of the better players in the Summit League last season.

To me, Iowa’s season hinges on the wing position, particularly the McCaffery bros and Keegan Murray. Murray was an intriguing piece last season who made the All-Freshman team and is now getting NBA Draft buzz. He shot it terrifically from two, attacked the glass, and showed off his athleticism in being a plus-defender on Iowa, a sight about as rare as a raging fire in Antarctica. If Murray can add an improved three-point shot to his game and take charge of the offense more, he could be an All-B1G guy. Iowa needs him to be.

Patrick McCaffery could be a breakout candidate, too, if his outside shot comes along, while Connor McCaffery will need to show that he’s allowed to shoot the ball after posting 11.9% usage (!) last year despite playing >50% of minutes. If 2-3 of these names pop, Iowa could have a shot at the tourney. If none do, this team could be ugly. The bench further consists of Ahron Ulis (Tyler’s brother) and Tony Perkins (not the star of 1960’s Psycho), but to me it appears that this team hinges on how far the McCafferys and Murray can come. Because if they can’t develop a good offense, do you really believe Fran can coach a good defense? No, of course not. Probably a fringe bubble team in Iowa City.

 

Geo Baker is still around too [MG Campredon]

8. Rutgers

Projected Lineup:

- G, Geo Baker

- G, Paul Mulcahy

- G, Caleb McConnell

- F, Ron Harper Jr.

- C, Cliff Omoruyi

Last year represented the culmination of everything that Steve Pikiell has been building in Piscataway, finally making the NCAA Tournament and winning a game. The offseason saw Jacob Young disappointingly head out for Oregon and Myles Johnson take a ticket to UCLA, but the rest of the team returns and there’s still reason to believe the Scarlett Knights could fight for a tourney bid. Why?

Let’s start with Geo Baker, who returns to Rutgers for what feels like Year 17. Baker made noise at the 2018 Big Ten Tournament and that ability to come up in big moments has stuck with the 5th year guard, even as he’s aged. A calm, steady presence at PG never hurts even if he’s not an offensive dynamo. Ron Harper Jr., meanwhile, should be one of the conference’s best players after being named 3rd team All-B1G last season. The 6’6” wing is built like a Mack truck, allowing him to light it up from two, but he’ll need to raise his three-point clip back up to make a leap to elite status in the conference.

Those two pieces are the biggest hope for Rutgers, but the other three starters were all rotation pieces last season. Cliff Omoruyi is a long rim protector who was a highly touted recruit and could be in for a sophomore jump. Paul Mulcahy offers Rutgers’ only reliable three-point shot, and Caleb McConnell is mostly just there for defense. I like this starting five’s upside defensively, but they should struggle to shoot the ball (like usual), and so it may come down to the bench as to whether this team is a bubble in or bubble out. Aundre Hyatt comes in from LSU and Ralph Agee transferred from SJSU, but neither seem like they’ll fix the perimeter shooting problem, but could continue to fortify a good defense.

More or less, like most seasons, we’re left wondering if this team can just out defend the opponent. I like Rutgers’ stability in returning Baker and Harper but it’s getting more out of those players in the preceding paragraph that will be tasked with replacing Young and Johnson and returning the Scarlett Knights to March Madness.