Michigan #16 in S&P+
We are now ranked #16 in overall S&P+. That's up 5 spots from last week. We have:
- #53 offense
- #6 defense
- #71 special teams
Other schools of note:
1. OSU (#4 offense, #14 defense)
3. Wisconsin (#35 offense, #1 defense)
8. PSU (#25 offense, #8 defense)
14. Notre Dame (#22 offense, #24 defense)
39. MSU (#103 offense, #12 defense)
55. Iowa (#108 offense, #19 defense)
Also, for those who follow former UM coaches:
31. Arizona (#5 offense, #103 defense)
105. Tennesee (#120 offense, #61 defense)
November 12th, 2017 at 9:33 PM ^
Nice to see the jump in offense the last few weeks. Pretty interesting that Wisconsin is ranked #1. I suppose that's because they haven't been tested by any good pass offenses yet. It'll be a tough game next week. Hope Harbaugh can get Peters prepped in time. It's crunchtime!
November 12th, 2017 at 9:43 PM ^
This is by far the best defense we will have faced.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:14 PM ^
It is opponent adjusted, but nevertheless, with a schedule as weak as theirs, it's hard to account for not playing any good teams/offenses. Then again, our offense is anything to write home about, so maybe their ranking is valid vs. us.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:27 PM ^
I didn't quite realize just how bad Wisconsin's schedule was until now. If it wasn't enough for them to play Utah State, Florida Atlantic and a bad BYU team out of conference, and a B1G West lineup, they got two of their three East crossovers against Indiana and Maryland!
A young, injury-riddled Michigan is the linchpin of their strength of schedule rating.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:51 PM ^
I can't figure out why anybody pays much attention to football stats- there are too many variables to make the numbers worth anything. Teams regularly play well above and below their level based on emotion. Look at this year:
PSU beat Iowa
OSU beat PSU
Iowa beat OSU
Player and team emotion is such a huge variable it renders most of the numbers meaningless- did any "analysis" show Iowa beating OSU by that much?
I can't find numbers fun to think about if they are very unreliable- I am not sure why anyone takes this stuff seriously or spends a lot of time on it. I aplogize if this comes off as judgemental- I don't mean it that way. I just don't see the point in looking at squishy numbers. Maybe someone can share their take on it and show me what I am missing.
November 12th, 2017 at 11:28 PM ^
They are much better in basketball . . . Kenpom is God. But they are not really that bad in football. They are not razor precise, but they do triangulate in on who is playing at what level.
They will hit a Michigan vs. Maryland or Minnesota game ten times more than they will miss an Iowa vs. Ohio State game.
They are an estimation tool. Being wrong sometimes does not make them useless all the time.
November 12th, 2017 at 11:31 PM ^
They are better in bball because of amount of data.
November 12th, 2017 at 11:40 PM ^
Yes, I know. They are not as good in football, but they are not just useless.
November 12th, 2017 at 11:32 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 11:41 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^
that offense was Florida Atlantic --- who's #17 in S&P+. Wisconsin did shut down FAU fairly well, and FAU has looked fairly legit the couple times I've seen them. But that's the only data point one has of "Wisconsin against a good offense."
I like Connelly's work but I get a bit suspicious of good rankings when they're coming nearly exclusively against average to bad opposition. Wisconsin D at #1 doesn't really pass the sniff test.
November 12th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
any defense in the Big Ten passes much of a sniff test. The offenses in the Big Ten this year are just awful. After PSU, Wisky, and OSU the next highest ranked offense is UM at 53. There's a lot of Big Ten offenses ranked around 100.
November 12th, 2017 at 11:32 PM ^
team that blew the pants off Ohio State the week before. so......
November 13th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 6:36 AM ^
Iowa's had a lot of bad offensive outings this year. The OSU game was a wonderful outlier performance.
November 13th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
This may be an example that provides some hope. Their supposedly stout o line withered in the face of Miami's aggression.
OTOH, Miami was supposed to be vulnerable because they had played no one. No one and no one looks pretty relative, howeva, when you look at who Wisconsin has played.
I'm gonna assume that we can give Wisconsin a very good game. But I do think some of the non-statistical variables are gonna figure heavily--if we get down big early, a la Penn State (or go up by a few scores) in that stadium. . . Also, we need to punch them in the nose early, make them wonder where they HAVE been playing lightweights. . .
November 13th, 2017 at 9:35 AM ^
where were we ranked on offense?
November 12th, 2017 at 9:33 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 9:46 PM ^
Might as well get rid of Tolbert due to the sheer amount of injuries, which makes me question the S&C staff.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:31 PM ^
Which injuries, in particular, would you attribute to inferior S&C training? It seems like most of them are typical contact injuries. If a guy rolls over your ankle there's not that much you can do.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 11:59 PM ^
it was.
November 13th, 2017 at 1:11 AM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 12:06 AM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 12:20 AM ^
Ankle injuries are some of the worst. It's really hard to cut and plant on an injured ankle. The only thing that heals an ankle is rest and time. It's one of those injuries where you can possibly still play but you won't be 100%. I played basketball through college and ankle injuries were the worst. The ankle usually wouldn't be 100% until after the season when you finally had time to rest it and let it heal completely.
November 13th, 2017 at 12:45 AM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 10:44 PM ^
got any great exercises that prevent neck breaking?
stfu dumb ass
November 13th, 2017 at 7:58 AM ^
I suppose we could blame him for Tarik Black’s broken foot right? NO. Maybe rashan gray falling on his r shoulder is his fault. NO.
November 12th, 2017 at 9:58 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 10:25 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 11:31 PM ^
His redzone offense against the Ohio States and Wisconsins of the world was awful.
He would gain all those yards . . . and then score 10 points for the entire game.
November 13th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
"the Ohio States and Wisconsins of the world," I have to assume you're referring to Ohio State and Wisconsin, right? Unless there are actually two or more ohio states and wisconsins, or perhaps some bizarro ohio states and wisconsins nobody knows about...
/petpeeve
November 13th, 2017 at 1:07 PM ^
No, this expression would not refer to just Ohio State and Wisconsin. It means teams similar to or of the same caliber as Ohio State and Wisconsin, not just those specific teams. The "s" is necessary.
November 17th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^
I know what the intent is, and I still think it's stupid and lazy. That's why I put the /petpeeve down there. The "s" is completely unnecessary, imo.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:32 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 11:38 PM ^
In RR's first game at Michigan a 25-23 loss to Utah, 23 was the 4th most points anyone scored on Utah's 13-0 team, the most was 27.
In 2010 Michigan lost to Iowa 30-28, Iowa went 11-2 that year and 28 points was the most any team scored against the Hawkeyes.
Otherwise yes it was mostly a dumpster fire.
November 13th, 2017 at 1:44 AM ^
Just look at Arizona this year versus Washington State. Washington State's defense is roughly equivalent to Michigan's this year (slightly below in S&P+, above in FEI). Arizona hung over 50 on them. (Yet the week prior, the RR haters here said the same thing -- Arizona's success only came against weak defenses, etc.) Look, we get it. A lot of people don't like him, don't think he was/is a coach, will never be convinced otherwise, will feel the need to make fun of his wife's cooking, etc. But his Arizona offense right now is ranked either 5th/6th in S&P+ and FEI, with a true sophomore QB who didn't even start the first four games of the season. I would trade Michigan's offense this year for Arizona's in a heartbeat. How has our offense done this year against the two decent (over .500) teams we have played? 10 points against MSU, 13 points against PSU.
November 13th, 2017 at 8:35 AM ^
November 12th, 2017 at 9:39 PM ^
how much did MSU getting killed by OSU cause their offense to drop? Lewerke had thrown for 400 yards 2 games in a row prior to this weekend. Seems like they would be higher than 103.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:11 PM ^
They were #89 before.
Lewerke threw for a bunch of yards but his yards-per-attempt were never very high and they had/have no running game.
November 12th, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
Not that much. They were 89 previously. For all of the "Dantonio's been able to put a good OL together with young 2 stars" talk, their run game has been abysmal all year. Pass pro had been good. Lewerke had been excellent, especially in big games, and has been worth 2-3 wins on his own for them (which, again, should remind M fans how much QB play - and a second string starter - means in college football). He completely crapped the bed Saturday, which turned a bad loss into a historic one for that series.
November 12th, 2017 at 9:40 PM ^
Why are our special teams so low?
November 12th, 2017 at 9:41 PM ^
35 yard punts and missed FGs and XPs.
November 12th, 2017 at 9:53 PM ^
Even with his recent slump, Nordin is 14-19 on field goals, and 31-32 on PATs. By college kicker standards that's not bad.
I guess our punting could be a bit better but in general it seems like our special teams are pretty good.