the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
Michigan has an 81.45 percent chance of winning the 2013 National Championship. Yes, you heard right - the maths prove it:
Michigan's record by City's first letter:
A (Ann Arbor, Auburn Hills): 19-1 (95 percent)
B (Brooklyn, Bloomington): 1-1 (50 percent)
C (Columbus, Champaign, Chicago): 2-2 (50 percent)
E (Evanston, East Lansing): 1-1 (50 percent)
M (Minneapolis, Madison): 1-1 (50 percent)
N (New York City): 2-0 (100 percent)
P (Peoria): 1-0 (100 percent)
S (State College): 0-1 (0 percent)
W (West Lafayette): 1-0 (100 Percent)
Now, the south regional will be hosted in Arlington, Texas - which, incidentally, starts with an A. Therefore, Michigan has a 95 percent chance of winning each game, meaning they have a 90.25 (.95x.95) percent chance of winning the region and heading to the final four....in Atlanta, Georgia. Atlanta, it also starts with an A.
The Wolverines will then have a 85.74 (.9025 x.95) percent chance of advancing to the title game and a 81.45 (.8574 x .95) percent chance of winning the National Title!
Hooray! And even though it worked in '89, thank God the Final Four isn't in Seattle. We'd have no shot based on these advanced statistics. Take that, Mathlete!
Downvoters be damned, I'm not letting your collective lack of humor get me out of the happy zone.
Edited to add West Lafayette, somehow I forgot to add that to the list the first go around.
Bill Connelly, of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, has put together preliminary 2012 season rankings of every team. They incorporate last year's ratings, how many starters are returning, and recruiting rankings to guess how other gaps will be filled.
The F+ rankings last year were pretty kind to Michigan overall, rating the team 12th overall. Because of a high number of projected returning starters (16), and a solid recruiting haul the last two years, that ranking is up to 8th.
Unfortunately, Alabama remains #1 with a button.
Other Michigan opponents:
Air Force: 112th
Notre Dame: 12th
Obviously this is all subject to change, and much too early, but an interesting first look at how things look from a purely statistical point of view.
I read an interesting article posted at SI.com by the folks from Cold, Hard, Football Facts:
I am curious whether there is any of the stats minded guys (or gals) around here who could be cajoled into seeing if the Passer Differential Rating correlation between winners and their ability to pass the ball and defend the pass transfers from the pros to college football. I find it fascinating that the single biggest predictor of success in the NFL is a team's ability to both pass the ball and defend the pass.
With the greater diversity of offenses in the college game that include both run first offenses as well as pass happy attacks there may be less predictive value for Passer Differential Rating in the NCAA, but it might provide anothe point in the debate over which offensive system is the "best."
Important also is the defensive component. Dominant defenses may be able to make up for a lack of a world beating pass attack. What is most interesting about this stat is that it is a team's ability to pass the ball and defend the pass that is most important (think recent Michigan secondary doom) predictor of success. Its not about running the ball or stopping the run, but rather passing the ball and stopping the pass. Its not overall offense or defense that is most important as a predictor, but just passing success and passing defense.
I wonder if there is someone here willing to take up the challenge of seeing if this correlates at the college level...