We don't need more cold water splashed in our faces after the season we just endured, but Football Study Hall did an analysis of turnover differential in the past season and tried to get an idea of who were the "luckiest" teams -- on the assumption that fumble recovery is essentially random, and here are the results:
|Team||Off. TO||Def. TO||TO Margin||Adj. Off. TO||Adj. Def. TO||Adj. TO Margin||Diff||TO Luck/Game|
Essentially, what you have is a TO margin, based on real numbers. Then you have adjusted turnovers, assuming that 51% of all fumbles are recovered by the offense, and that 22% of all passes defended are intercepted. The adjusted turnover margin is thus an estimate of a turnover margin without as much luck built in.
This suggests that Michigan was fairly lucky in terms of turnovers in 2013. We recovered more fumbles than average (15 opponent fumbles, 9 of which we recovered) and lost fewer than average (22 fumbles 8 of which we lost), and we had fewer picks than expected based on passes defended. (If you don't like what you see, just close your eyes are repeat to yourself that turnovers aren't random).
We played some of the unluckiest teams this year. The top 10 unluckiest:
|Team||Off. TO||Def. TO||TO Margin||Adj. Off. TO||Adj. Def. TO||Adj. TO Margin||Diff.||TO Luck/Game|