The value of returning receivers
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/how-valuable-are-returning-starters-and-what…
I may have missed it, but I haven't seen this diary mentioned specifically in any main blog or board post this year. I remember it well because it was surprising to me as well. All I can recall is Brian saying WRs usually don't put up big stats in their first year.
People seem to assume WR is like RB in that speed, size, and athleticism trump experience, but the Mathlete found in 2010 that returning WR experience is one of the biggest factors when predicting an offense's production. He doesn't mention TEs in his post, but obviously that's a big element in Harbaugh's offense as well. We went from having 2 senior WRs and a senior TE to NO seniors, 1 junior slot who missed a bunch of time,1 junior WR who has barely seen the field his entire career, and 1 junior TE who has strangely disappeared despite looking like the heir apparent. Sure, Speight isn't playing well, but we probably should have expected such an underwhelming passing game based on the losses of our receiving threats alone, at least at this point in the season anyway.
Here's what the Mathlete wrote:
Wide Receiver
This was the position that shocked me. I always considered the wide receiver position to be largely talent driven with little thought given to the value of experience for receivers.
In one of the strongest correlations I found, each decile of returning wide receiver experience was worth a half a point per game improvement. Even more surprising, the improvement wasn't restricted to the passing game. Of the half point improvement, only .3 ppg could be attributed to the passing game. Veteran wide receivers play a huge role in a team's progress. This may have been a fluky correlation for 2008-2009 but within the data set, it had one of the highest R squared values I found at 0.72.
September 19th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
The PSU game is probably a lost cause unless the defense and ST bails us out, but hopefully they are more upperclassmen like by Ohio State.
September 19th, 2017 at 4:37 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
You're right, lost cause is a bit harsh. However, with just three more warmup games before Penn State, and now without Black, its tough for me to see this offense hitting its stride enough to outscore Penn State on the road.
But its CFB and stranger things have happened. Maybe Black going out becomes a blessing in disguise and forces Michigan to go to more of a screen game with DPJ that winds up opening up the offense. Or maybe Martin comes back from injury soon and he actually is some sort of route ninja that can get open quick.
September 19th, 2017 at 9:23 AM ^
Penn State's wins were againt Akron and Georgia State. Air Force is not a great team, but they are not Akron or Georgia State either. Penn State beat Pitt soundly, we beat Florida soundly. Both teams of have stood pat. It is most certainly not a "lost cause."
September 19th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
Pitt actually outgained Penn St in that game. It wasn't that great of a victory.
September 19th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:27 AM ^
Rushing touchdowns per game last year - 3.15
Passing touchdowns per game last year - 1.53
Compare that with this year...
Rushing touchdowns per game - 0.67
Passing touchdowns per game - 1.00
Smith and Hill combined last year for almost 2 per game - and those guys aren't burners doing it on their own. So I know small sample size and all, but the scoring in the passing game is almost on par with last year. The scoring on the ground is however not so great, Bob.
September 19th, 2017 at 12:34 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:36 AM ^
Don't know about the red zone specifically, but JDue on twitter (who is also on here) talked a lot about WRs not getting separation against Air Force.
September 19th, 2017 at 1:03 AM ^
Maybe in the first two games. But not this one
September 19th, 2017 at 5:34 AM ^
Speight just didn't find them because he was often under pressure and didn't adjust well. When I watched the game live, I thought our playcalling was severly lacking but, upon further review, I realized that Speight struggled to improvise.
September 19th, 2017 at 8:11 AM ^
Did Speight struggle to improvise, or did the recievers not help him out at all? I mean, every time a QB makes some great throw while running for his life, the reciever also did something to get open and come back to the QB. It takes a village...
September 19th, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:45 AM ^
I haven't really seen any of those cool red zone passing plays where receivers are running crossing routes. Speight his a few of those last year and Rudock hit some of those that I thought would surely be picks. I dunno. We are getting to the red zone but not finishing. Maybe you are right and it is mostly on the OL. I'd guess with the time and analysis you put into just the red zone scoring from last game, maybe you are right. Last year felt like the drive to the red zone was the problem. This year it feels like once we get there we don't know what on Earth to do.
September 19th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^
Last year's numbers are inflated by about 1 TD per game because of Rutgers. Not fair to compare numbers including Rutgers vs. not playing Rutgers yet.
September 19th, 2017 at 9:11 AM ^
Also, if Chris Evans doesn't trip on the turf and Crawford and Isaac don't both get TDs taken back on horrible calls, we should be at about 2.7 TDs per game.
Still significantly worse than last year... but I feel like people need to remember that almost everything from a luck/officiating standpoint has gone against this team this year, yet we are still 3-0.
September 19th, 2017 at 12:34 AM ^
Well, it references points, not passing TDs. But good point. Maybe the value is in blocking and good route-running that results in more attention from safeties and linebackers to open up the rest of the offense.
September 19th, 2017 at 8:17 AM ^
ding ding ding
September 19th, 2017 at 12:20 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:22 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:34 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:50 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 1:35 AM ^
Interesting take on Jedd Fisch. I notice that Drevno is in the press box this year instead of the sideline. It used to be Jedd up there. I think maybe he had a better knack for adjusting on the fly with the all-22 view.
It's still too early for "the sky is falling", but definitely a noticeable difference. Speight threw quite a few beautiful slants into the end zone last year. I don't get the insistence on throwing fade routes, when it clearly isn't his strong suit.
September 19th, 2017 at 7:51 AM ^
If we're truly trying to understand the play-calling, we have to look at it from the perspective of the play-caller. If you're Drevno/Hamilton/Harbaugh and your objective is to beat Air Force (not beat them by 30), you probably recognize that the #1 threat to that objective is Speight throwing into danger like in the Florida game.
Until Speight demonstrates consistency, or until game circumstances dictate taking chances, it's only logical to have Speight throw it where it can't hurt you.
September 19th, 2017 at 8:45 AM ^
...when they're thrown 6 yards out of bounds.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:17 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 5:37 AM ^
...Jedd Fisch was here for the Iowa, Ohio State, and Florida State games. How much blame do you attribute to Fisch for our offensive struggles in those games?
People are antsy and are searching for reasons. A few idiots are scapegoating Speight or the OC. Honestly, it's a convergence of a number of factors (the QB, the OL, the young skill players, a new PGC, etc.)
September 19th, 2017 at 8:16 AM ^
This ^^^
A convergence of all new things - a little of all of the above... How much of Speight's 'struggle' can be attributed to having to check the OL alignment/blocking call, the WR's splits, that the RB knows the corner blitz is coming, and the defense alignment vs the play call/audible options? Speight is doing everything this year, where he didn't have to do any of it last year. Yet the fanbase (most of it, anyway) wants to crucify the guy as if nobody else would ever make a mistake!
September 19th, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
Also, if I remember right a lot of people were happy to see Fisch go and blamed him for a lot of the offensive problems at the end of the year.
September 19th, 2017 at 8:28 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:25 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:38 AM ^
I certainly think the team can improve during the season, but I definitely don't see us being unstoppable by the end of the year, especially when we just lost maybe our best outside WR. More like next year.
September 19th, 2017 at 7:01 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 9:19 AM ^
You always make it to the highest level when you have no idea what you're doing. Pep Hamilton being in the NFL proves that he has no idea what he is doing. I cannot believe Jim Harbaugh hired a guy who has no idea what he is doing.
September 19th, 2017 at 9:44 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 7:29 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 7:41 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
True. And also not Drevno's fault that Newsome was lost to injury early in the season last year.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:54 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:41 AM ^
Also, have we passed to an RB or FB yet this year besides that one pass to Hill?
September 19th, 2017 at 12:55 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 1:01 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 1:02 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 1:26 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 2:42 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 4:43 AM ^
Speight has always been inaccurate. We need more of this.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:59 AM ^