Does Michigan have a disproportionate number of "miracle plays" against them?

Submitted by Lakeyale13 on

Last night totally got me thinking, our beloved Maize and Blue seems to be the team on the losing end of the "miracle play" far more than any other (Edit) HIGH PROFILE UNIVERSITY I can think of.  For Example, Colorado's Hail Mary, Appalachian State, Michigan State Punt Debacle, Northwestern last night, etc. 

 

So any other Schools you can think of that rival us?  LOL.  I can think of schools with a singular massive play against them, such as Auburn running the missed FG back on Bama, but not a school with multiple such plays in the last 20 years or so.  I just choose to see it that we are GREAT at lots of things.  Ha!

shoes

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:04 AM ^

I was saying the same thing last night, (I would add OSU's buzzer beater in the BT Tourney and the two Wisconsin miracle shots against us), but probably not. We remember ours and suffer as a result.

Chalky White

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:23 AM ^

I don't know if I would say they seem to always come back In our favor but we have had our share of miracle wins as well. Notre Dame constantly got Denarded. Trey Burke against Kansas, the Manningham game, the Braylon game., etc.

Swayze Howell Sheen

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:09 AM ^

hard to not be biased in this type of "feelings-based" analysis. of course we all remember the michigan losses, but quickly forget the devastating losses by other teams.

to really answer this, you'd have to catalog every "miracle" play (and define what that means) and then crunch the numbers over say a decade or two. 

given that there's no reason to expect "miracle" plays more or less against any one team or the other, suspicion here is that the data shows that there is not much difference across teams, except of course for the normal expected variance.

 

g_reaper3

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:02 AM ^

Indiana 1979 - Carter goes 50 yards for TD on final play.

OSU 1988 - Michigan goes 100 yards for a TD between the kickoff return and a big pass.  All Kolesar I think.

UCLA 1989 - We score with not much time left, kick onside, recover it and score again to win.

MSU 2004 - Braylonfest comeback

PSU 2005 - Manningham TD with 1 second to go.

ND 2011 - Gallon wheel route and Roundtree pass

Northwestern 2013 - crazy sliding FG as time expires and then win in OT

 

I am sure there are many more, these are just off the top of my head.

 

Wolfman

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:13 PM ^

As OP stated, we tend to dwell on those that go against us and exhale and appreciate it when we pull one out that opposing team/fans feel like we do vs. CO, Appy etc. We don't hold onto it like we do those last second heart-breakers. Speaking of which:

I thought I had thought about almost all of them and then someone adds another white knuckle finish, either for us or against us vs. ND. These two teams have to have more, I would think than any other two teams that have played over a good amount of time. Another that comes to mind - and I only had Ufer to help me - three televised games pr year, plus bowl game. 

Can't recall the year, but ND lined up for an "all but impossible FG attempt." Imagine Ufer is guiding you through this. Believe it was just over 50 but the wind was blowing so hard into Harry Oliver's face. Ufe said, "No Way."  Then "OMG" "OMG" "OMG" "I cannot believe this. The wind has miraculously stopped blowing. It's impossible to explain. There's been a stiff wind the entire quarter, then miraculously, it stops for the attempt. The kick is on the way. It is GOOD."

Hell, thinking about it, I'm kind of glad it wasn't televised. 

drjaws

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:14 AM ^

everyone loses close games.  It seems like Michigan loses more close games because we follow ALL THE MICHIGAN GAMES and very few of anyone elses games.

 

Texas could lose 4 straight games by buzzer beaters and I wouldn't know unless posted here because I don't watch SportsCenter and don't search through for all the BBall scores.

 

The end.

readyourguard

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:17 AM ^

I don't know about "more" but we sure have had our fill more recently: Last night Iowa, The Game, and Orange Bowl from last season The punt play I could probably name 3-9 more if I put my mind to it.

BayWolves

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:20 AM ^

No. We have had great plays against other teams that you are forgetting as well. We are not victims. We are winners. Don't fall into the "woe is me" and "everything bad happens to me" mentality. It is unjustified and as winners we don't need to walk around with the mentality of victims.



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Lakeyale13

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:24 AM ^

Oh, please don't misinterpret my post.  I am not bringing emotion into the equation.  I am simply asking do you think the number of such plays happens more to Michigan than other high profile universities.  I will always believe "Who has is better than us!?  Nobody!!!".

UM Indy

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:24 AM ^

Yes.  I think someone a lot smarter than me could actually research and prove this to be true. But I think to get the most accurate picture one would have to add to the buzzer beaters and hail marys things like the Webber time out, the Desmond trip and other game changing or game deciding weirdness or horrible officiating.  I'm thinking of writing a book - "Kicks to the Balls: My Michigan Memories."

ijohnb

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:28 AM ^

son actually hit me in the balls with a softball last on accident five minutes after that game ended. Direct shot. If I have gone to bed more angry than last night I certainly can't remember it.

Sam1863

March 2nd, 2017 at 8:29 AM ^

And thank you so much for bringing up such a painful subject. While you're at it, why don't you give me a nice paper cut and pour lemon juice on it.

WolverineHistorian

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:00 AM ^

You could restrict this topic to basketball finishes under Beilein.  The Evan Turner shot, the Wisconsin half court shot, the death to backboards shot, the Kentucky 3 point shot in the Elite Eight.  I like any opponent's chance against Michigan with a second left on the clock.  So when last night happened, it really wasn't all that surprising.  

What made this one slightly different was for once, it was less fluke like and just came down to an incredibly perfect pass to set up the shot.  But the end result is still the same and it sucks.  

I'm wondering if that little high school arena at Northwestern is becoming a new house of horrors for us.   The last time we played there two years ago was the double overtime travesty where there were 5 separate times I thought we had the game won until NU drained a miracle 3 to keep the game going.  They did it again and again and again.  Two of them were well defended prayers thrown up that magically went in.  That game sucked too.  

MadMatt

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:22 AM ^

You want predictable?!  Go watch the NBA.  82 games so half of the league can make the playoffs and then every round except the first is best of 7.  Although the better team doesn't always win (and neither does the house in Vegas, but...), when was the last time an NBA team that was in the bottom half of the playoff qualifiers won the Championship, or made the Finals?  I can think of a Houston team with a less than stellar regular season record in the middle of the Olaijuwon dynasty; that's it.

Appreciate what you have!  There is a reason most of us prefer watching the NCAA tournament to the NBA Playoffs.

ak47

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:23 AM ^

No, every major team feels this way, Michigan has had a lot miracle finishes go their way too. Burke's shot against Kansas, GR3 against purdue I think off an inbounds, Northwestern fg as time expired, nw hailmary to keep the game alive that a northwestern db had go through his hands, nd first night game, minnesota choosing to only run one play from the goalline last year, etc. have all happened in the last few years right off the top of my head and if I actually sat down to think about it I'm sure there are more.

canzior

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:30 AM ^

like Patriots fans with 2 super bowl losses, Alabama with the Auburn fg return...then this years nation al Championship...they can probably rattle off 10 in the last 20 or so years.  

 

But remember 05 Penn State, Notre Dame with Tate, UTL 1 and 2..But also remember Iowa 16, OSU 16, and FSU 16...sigh  and MSU 15,..

Wolvie3758

March 2nd, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^

I was thinking the same thing..OR how many different ways can Michigan sports teams BLOW games

1974

March 2nd, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^

Appalachian State shouldn't be in the OP's list. Focusing on the blocked field goal is like worrying about a chipped tail light after your car gets totaled.

StephenRKass

March 2nd, 2017 at 11:08 AM ^

No, we do not have a disproportionate number of Miracle plays against us. The reality is that we focus on the losses and conveniently forget about the way we won the same kind of game. for example, we want a miracle game against Kansas in the NCAA tournament a couple years ago. But we conveniently forget about that and focus how we lost a tight title game.

Brady2Terrell

March 2nd, 2017 at 11:10 AM ^

This is a function of availability bias - you remember the stuff that matters to you, but not the stuff that matters to others.

When you start thinking of miracle plays that go the other way (Alabama's missed PAT in OT in the 2000 Orange Bowl, Dileo Power Slide, Trey Burke bucket vs. Kansas, Denard vs. ND, etc.) it's easier to start seeing it all come out in the wash.