Hoops Preview: Minnesota
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#28 Michigan (17-9, 7-6 B1G) at #39 Minnesota (19-7, 7-6) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Williams Arena Minneapolis, Minnesota |
WHEN | 7 pm ET, Sunday |
LINE |
Minnesota -2 (KenPom) Minnesota -2 (Vegas) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Brian Anderson Analyst: Shon Morris |
Right: Richard Pitino, who definitely doesn't eat brains for dinner. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE US
The tournament outlook is looking good: Michigan is on all but two brackets in the matrix, and the pair that omitted the Wolverines haven't been updated to account for the Wisconsin win.
This game will impact both NCAA tournament positioning and Big Ten Tournament seeding. Minnesota is tied with Michigan for sixth in the conference at 7-6, one game behind Northwestern and Michigan State heading into the weekend. By KenPom's projections, this is the second-toughest of the five remaining games of the schedule, but Michigan has owned this series lately: they've won 13 of the last 14 against the Gophers, including six straight at The Barn.
With three teams at 10-3, Michigan isn't going to win the conference, but it's well within the realm of possibility for them to claw their way to a top-four seed and a double-bye in the BTT. They have a decent amount of control over their own destiny, too, between tomorrow's game and the March 1st matchup at Northwestern.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 2 | Nate Mason | Jr. | 6'2, 190 | 83 | 24 | 110 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Good passer, volume scorer who shoots better on threes (39%) than twos (37%). | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 0 | Akeem Springs | Sr. | 6'4, 220 | 60 | 19 | 108 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter™ makes 39% of threes, 38% of twos. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 5 | Amir Coffey | Fr. | 6'8, 195 | 77 | 19 | 108 | No | |||||||||||
After ugly start, shooting 43% on threes in B1G. Decent finisher w/ high FT rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 3 | Jordan Murphy | So. | 6'6, 240 | 67 | 22 | 96 | Very | |||||||||||
Good rebounder, shot-blocker, inside finisher. High FT rate, bad FT shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 22 | Reggie Lynch | Jr. | 6'10, 260 | 53 | 20 | 99 | Very | |||||||||||
Excellent rebounder and shot-blocker. Struggling with shot and turnovers. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Dupree McBrayer | So. | 6'5, 190 | 67 | 20 | 104 | No | |||||||||||
Can handle point, but not scoring efficiently and turning it over too much. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 24 | Eric Curry | Fr. | 6'9, 235 | 49 | 18 | 101 | Very | |||||||||||
Good rebounder, decent inside scorer, takes bad-idea jumpers. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 21 | Bakary Konate | Jr. | 6'11, 235 | 25 | 12 | 98 | Very | |||||||||||
Good shot-blocker, foul-prone, only offense is putbacks. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Minnesota capitalized on a weak nonconference schedule to go 12-1 heading into Big Ten play, then got off to a 3-1 start in the conference highlighted by wins at Purdue and Northwestern before falling back to earth in January. The Gophers lost five straight, including two at home, before recovering to win their last four when the schedule eased up. They're coming off an ugly one-point home win over Indiana that the Hoosiers did everything in their power to cough up. Minnesota's defense has been stout throughout; their offense has been mired in a funk.
Point guard Nate Mason is a high-usage player who ranks fourth in the B1G in both assist and turnover rate. He creates a lot of looks off the bounce, both for himself and others, but his shooting numbers reflect his penchant for taking tough shots: he's making 37% of his twos and 33% of his threes in Big Ten games. Only 34% of his makes this year have been assisted, per hoop-math. Mason salvages decent efficiency by taking care of the ball and capitalizing on frequent trips to the line, where he's shooting 82% on the season.
Two-guard Akeem Springs fits the Just A Shooter™ profile; he's making 39% of his threes, which comprise the majority of his field goal attempts. Lanky freshman wing Amir Coffey is also a good outside shooter, and he's effective at using his length to score in the paint.
Power forward Jordan Murphy does the big man stuff quite well; he rebounds, blocks shots, and makes 57% of his twos. His high free throw rate is both a blessing and a curse; while he draws a healthy number of fouls, he shoots only 57% at the line. Both he and backup Eric Curry, who fits a very similar profile, have a penchant for taking the occasional three-pointer that they only make 20% of the time.
Center Reggie Lynch excels as a rebounder and shot-blocker—he's eighth in the conference in OR% and first in block rate—but he's really struggling to finish (45% on twos in B1G play) and stay out of foul trouble. Backup Bakary Konate fits a similar mold but with much less involvement in the offense; he averages one shot attempt per conference game.
The sixth man is sophomore guard Dupree McBrayer, who's had a rough go in the Big Ten: his turnover rate outstrips his assist rate and he's shooting 40% inside the arc and 28% outside of it. Minnesota's normal rotation only goes eight deep; if you see someone enter who's not listed above, it'll be for a very short stint.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Minnesota is not a good shooting team, ranking 13th in the conference in eFG%. They make up for some of that with frequent trips to the line and a low turnover rate, but they still only rank 11th in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Gophers rely heavily on free throws; Michigan, as usual, is one of the more foul-averse teams in the country.
The Gophers boast the fourth-best defense in the Big Ten in large part because they restrict outside shot opportinities; they have the best three-point defense. They also block more shots than any other Big Ten team. Their defense has generally held strong even in losses; other than Maryland's 1.25 points per possession, Ohio State's 1.13 PPP is the best mark against them in Big Ten games.
THE KEYS
Contain Mason. Minnesota's offense goes as Mason goes, for the most part. He's going to put up shots no matter what; the key is making those shots tough, as Mason is more than willing to pull up for tough midrange attempts if the lane is closed off. Michigan has some options here; they can go with Derrick Walton, whose strength will be an asset in keeping Mason out of the paint, or save Walton's energy and go with MAAR, who's been excellent on defense lately.
Walton-Wagner high screens. Minnesota's defense is tough to crack. Michigan's best bet will be to get Minnesota's shot-blocking bigs away from the basket. Reggie Lynch might have trouble trying to keep with Moe Wagner and all he can do out of the high screen, whether it's slipping to the hoop or popping out for a three, and Walton's ability to pull up from anywhere makes Lynch's job that much more difficult. That should open up some kickout oppotunities, which will be of great importance against a team that doesn't give up many open looks on the perimeter.
Keep the foul battle close. If Michigan and Minnesota end up taking a similar number of free throws, the Wolverines are a very good bet to win this game. The Gophers need an edge here to make up for Michigan's decided shooting advantage.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Minnesota by 2.
Something's gotta give: a Minnesota offense that relies heavily on free throws against a foul-averse Michigan defense; a perimeter-oriented Michigan offense against a strong Minnesota perimeter defense.
ELSEWHERE
February 18th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
I like our chances, especially if we continue our roll! Things are looking up, we could make some noise in March!
Go Blue!!!
February 18th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
Ace, I know it was a throwaway that you once tried to replace, but the SIBMIHHAT column is one of my go-to metrics for a casual glance at a team when I'm tight on time and want to skim a preview. It's the perfect mix of witty brevity with actual help-me-watch-the-game-smarter content.
February 18th, 2017 at 4:58 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
Poor peformance on the field isn't my fault. It's the players and staff that are not doing their jobs. - Brian Kelly
February 18th, 2017 at 4:59 PM ^
Richard Pitino always rreminds me of one of the young dirtbags in Boiler Room
February 18th, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
they mention in the documentary "Cocaine Cowboys." Doctor and Lawyer types that would go absolutely nuts with cocaine on 48 hour weekend benders, then get up and go to work Monday morning. That picture of him, especially for a Sunday night game, could not be more appropriate.
February 18th, 2017 at 5:26 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 7:04 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 7:10 PM ^
We've won six straight at the Barn? Wow, I knew Beilein had had some success there but didn't realize it was to that extent. I think we can do it again. I'm not a big believer in Minnesota. They sound like an Amaker team, with high-volume, low-percentage shooters and a couple of big men who are athletic but not that skilled. I'm not sold on Little Ricky either.
(I like the "When Minnesota Has the Ball" photo, BTW.)
February 18th, 2017 at 7:44 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 5:37 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 7:55 PM ^
I wouldn't count on it. As a perimeter-oriented team, which tends not to go too deep into the bench, we're particularly vulnerable to the format of the BTT, which gives only 24 hours' rest between games. Beilein has never lost an opening-round BTT game (9-0) but we almost always lose the next day (2-7). Fatigue probably has to do with that. It's hard to shoot from the perimeter on weary legs.
Fortunately, the NCAA tournament doesn't make you play games closer than 48 hours apart.
February 19th, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^
is a negative in this format, but I would agree that having poor depth might be an issue this year.
One could argue that essentially playing three guards and two forwards who should be in better shape than heavy bigs would be an advantage. Three straight days of games for Haas, Swanigan, Ward, and other bigs is probably more difficult than for our guys.
February 19th, 2017 at 5:03 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 7:07 PM ^
that three point shooting percentages decline throughout the course of a game? i.e 3 pointers taken early in a game would be made at a higher percentage than those taken later in a game?
February 19th, 2017 at 3:38 AM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
as a play-in team against a six seed and eventual elite 8 team. So you could argue we exceeded expectations and that there was indeed a "NY" bump - even though it would be absurd to expect there to be one such that we win every single time we play there. And if any team outside of the Northeast footprint can come close to matching our support in NY, it's ND (and probably UNC/Duke in basketball, cuz obviously).
February 18th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
that is all.
any pitino.
they are all vampires methinks.
February 19th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 6:42 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 10:10 PM ^
February 18th, 2017 at 10:27 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 7:01 AM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 7:59 AM ^
Just have to hope that Wagner and Walton stay hot, and that the defense is continuing to improve.
February 19th, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
On the bright side, this post is no less informative or useful than earth is flat posts. Only six more months until football posting is in full swing.
Thank God the women are usually a force in softball. There was a time not too long ago where it seemed like they were the only thing Michigan had worth talking about.
Also grateful that this basketball team gave us something other than "fire Beilein" material. Effort, defense, and rebounding all taken seriously turned the tide.
Get a Harbaugh-recruiting type coach with smarts and caché when Beilein is done (get serious, when he decides to step aside), get better athletes, bring back the old and a new Fab Five, put the banners back up, fer God's sake!!! This is Michigan! All in for Michigan! (We have never made a mistake?) Webber, Howard, Rose, King, Jackson. They played their asses off. They were all awesome. Do the right thing.
Until then, thanks to Beiliein for getting the most from these guys, thanks to these guys for their effort and improvement.
(BTW, if we don't shoot well, we are probably going to have a hard time winning.)
February 19th, 2017 at 11:34 AM ^
Get a Harbaugh-recruiting type coach with smarts and caché
Harbaugh is a coach with cachet, but I wouldn't say he remains caché* - he's rather out in public quite often.
*Caché = "hidden"
February 19th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
Yes. Thanks for the correction. Too early in AZ coffe-wise when I wrote that I guess. Meant cachet.
(Though anally speaking, "hidden" = "cache" rather than the goofy way I spelled it.)
February 19th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^
In French, caché is the past participle of the verb cacher, "to hide." The accent is required. Otherwise you are writing the noun cache, a hiding/storage place.
February 19th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
I can see I am dreadfully out of my league here. UNCLE!
February 19th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 6:57 PM ^
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