2016 football record prediction

Submitted by Ball Hawk on
We had a good regular season this year! We had some uncertainties before the season that could've turned ugly for us. We beat MSU and we almost pulled off a win over OSU. Im very proud of how hard this team has worked. It's easy to start expecting more and more as the season goes on. Thankfully Harbaugh gave us those hopes. We are still in a transition of developing players and bringing in new players to learn the system. I wanted to show some of you how far this team has come from most of these predictions that were made at the beginning of the season. Things change of course but by the end of the season, it seems that its never good enough for a lot of you. Take a look at what some of these predictions were. 3 things that were uncertain. 1. QB situation 2. Defensive coach 3. Linebacker development. Be happy how far we have come. We will beat OSU with Harbaugh. http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/season-prediction-thread Edit- Unfortunately I cannot find the 2016 season predictions thread. If someone can find it, please post it in the comments or have a mod post it.
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Baugh so hard

December 3rd, 2016 at 2:40 AM ^

I was in the 12-0 camp. I think we showed we were indeed a team where 12-0 was a reasonable expectation, but sometimes things don't fall your way. We had one game that shouldn't have been close that was and one game that should have been close that was and lost them both. All other games weren't close (maybe Wisconsin, but only because a defensive slugfest is always a 1-2 score game). This was a damn fine team that didn't catch the breaks.

Overall, I'm happy with a team that could have been 12-0, should have been 12-0, ended up 10-2 rather than a team that could have been 12-0, could have been 9-3, ended up 5-7. 

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Perkis-Size Me

December 3rd, 2016 at 8:56 AM ^

12-0 is almost never a reasonable expectation. Shit happens every year, and almost every team slips up a game. If you don't bring the highest focus and intensity every week, you're going to lose somewhere. OSU trips up once almost every year. Alabama trips up once most years. I think people grossly underestimate how hard it is to go undefeated. There's a reason we've had very few undefeated national title teams in the past decade or so. The ones I can think of off the top of my head:

'13 FSU
'09 Alabama
'06 Texas

12-0 was certainly a possibility this year, but the odds are stacked against you.



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KTisClutch

December 3rd, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

This. People assume because you are favored in every game (which Michigan wasn't this year) then 12-0 is the expectation but that's not how it works. If you have a 90% chance to win every game that still only gives you a 28% chance to win all 12. And obviously sports don't work like the most basic form of statistic, in fact it's even less predictable! So that is why this season is not a failure as some are saying.



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alum96

December 3rd, 2016 at 3:07 AM ^

I had 10-2 with losses at 2 of the 3 "big road games". 

It is also ok to adjust expectations as the season goes by and results on the field change.  See Colorado this year - I am sure most of their fans were thinking 7-5 or 8-4 top side.  Same goes for other schools to the downside, see ND and MSU.  I adjusted mine once I saw we had a real QB and it was sustainable through 5-6 games.  Especially assuming the back half of the year Harbaugh jump in QB play ala Rudock.  

This year was THE year in the near term.  The question was would we have a good QB - 8 months ago the board was 90% O'Korn ride and die.  And could we hide the LBs.  Things of that nature.  The QB exceeded expectations in my book even if it was not the name most thought it would be a year ago, as did the LBs (low expectations there).

In light of how mediocre 2 of the 3 teams in the "big road games" turned out to be (Iowa/MSU), and our offensive machine in first half of the year (albeit vs a lot of meh teams), I classify it as a big missed opportunity.  In the end we had 1 true road game we should have been tested.  But like often we saw in the Carr era we lost a game that didn't make sense.  It happens in CFB, very good teams lose head scratchers, usually on the road.  But it seems like it almost always happens to UM, whereas the elite programs have it happen every so often.

Looking at the schedule overall, it sort of equalled to what we thought - just with different characters rising and falling.  The 2 tough road games vs MSU and Iowa instead turned into 2 tough home games vs Wisconsin and Colo.  Which obviously turned into UM advantage in big picture.  And we were quite fortunate the Colo QB was hurt as that game was trending Donovan McNabb style.  Michigan was fortunate to play very few competent QBs.  PSU got better as the season went by - just don't think they were anywhere near the product they are today, although a bit fraudulent still in my eyes.  Sometimes you get lucky when you play a team in the year.  

All in all you had 8 home games, didn't have to travel outside of the state except for NJ vs a glorified HS team for the first 2 months of the year.  You then had to go on the road to play 2 teams down big time vs last year.  Then walk into your rival game with a QB who seemingly no longer could throw and a team that lost the bulk of last year's starters.  So it set up well for a very senior laden team in the end.   A lot of things fell our way just in terms of who the tough teams were...where we played them... when we play them.

But as others have said this has basically been the story of UM football for many years.  Not taking that last step into greatness when opportunities arise every 3rd or 4th year.  And a lot of the 2-3 loss seasons instead.

On the flip side, next year I'd be very pleased with 10-2 based on experience on the roster.

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Cali's Goin' Blue

December 3rd, 2016 at 4:48 AM ^

He won many of those games due to amazing coaching and preparation. But he also lost two games due to coaching a preparation. The Iowa loss is tough to swallow and the 4th Q play calling was horrendous. The OSU game was significantly worse for the same reason, We always attacked Hoke for the 27-for-27 game because that was on him. The 5-for-5 game was even worse from a coaching standpoint and still can't comprehend what the fuck Harbaugh was doing in that 4th quarter. The players blew it, no doubt, but as we always said with Hoke,it's the coaches job to put the players in a position to succeed. Running up the gut 4 out of 5 times is not putting your team in a position to succeed against one of the best run defenses in the country

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Ty Butterfield

December 3rd, 2016 at 4:50 AM ^

In Brian's final season prediction thread I had 9-3 with all losses on the road to Iowa, OSU, and Staee. At least Michigan got by Staee but I saw the loss at Iowa coming a mile away. Iowa City has always been a house of horrors, make it a night game and it is even worse.

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huntmich

December 3rd, 2016 at 5:21 AM ^

I think the reason people are freaking out and so massively disappointed is because of the senior situation this year. Yes, we have a stacked team that could have gone 12-0.  But it isn't like the cupboard is bare behind them. We are returning a shit ton of players who are good to great that are going to continue to mature in Harbaugh's system. We are going to compete again next year.

We now have an established qb, linebackers, proven RBs and WRs, Jeremy Clark's sixth year, Rashan Gary, etc. returning with another year of seasoning under their belt. 2017 we get OSU and MSU at home. The future looks bright to me.

Harbaugh raises expectations.  People wanted a natty this year, I get it.  They weren't wrong to expect it.  We had a team that could win it. I don't get what happened late in the Iowa and OSU games in terms of play calling.  But we are ranked in the single digits going into bowl season. 2 seasons ago we lost to Maryland AND Rutgers.

Let's keep some perspective and enjoy the trajetory we are on.  We are a big dog again, and this isn't going to be our only shot at the title.

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taistreetsmyhero

December 3rd, 2016 at 7:38 AM ^

The team will not be better next year from an experience-depth standpoint, but it may do just as well based on how other teams on the schedule look. Florida game will be an immediate and massive test. OSU will be much better than they were this year, Wisky will have more experience than us, Penn St will be meh like this year.

If we're holding Harbaugh to same expectations as Urban, he needs to produce the same results as Urban did this year. This year, with this team, we were sitting between 9-3 and 12-0 so we underperformed. Next year, our floor is probably 8-4 and ceiling 11-1, so I'm hoping to hit 10-2.



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SpikeFan2016

December 3rd, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^

I'm not sure if the schedule will be harder or easier. 

 

Does anyone know if Florida, PSU and Wisconsin are poised to trend down or up?

 

MSU at home should be fine and OSU is going to be what it is; hopefully our home field will give us a chance given they will certainly be better next year. 

 

However, Penn State and Wisconsin both scare me as road games. The former will be their annual White Out (with PSU coming off a bye, much like how they played OSU this year) and the latter is a road game in late November just before the OSU game.

 

PSU is certainly better now than they were in 2015 and nothing I have seen from UM since I've been a fan (2012) gives me any confidence that we can go into those two very tough environments and win. 

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alum96

December 3rd, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^

As long as Nuss is OC I am not fearful of UF.  For goodness sake their FEI offense rank was 104 - that's Purdue-ish.  That should be a team full of speed merchants and skill players galore based on recruiting base.   They only scored more than 21 four times this year vs P5 teams.

No one has ridden Saban coattails as well since Bobby Williams.  Unless something changes dramatically this offseason ala PSU OC change, that is not a team that runs away from you at all and we bring back an experienced signal caller.  Our young defense is not going to be smashed by a Nuss offense.

Things like road games at Wiscy IMO are going to be a lot tougher than UF unless they are returning something like 14 of 22 starters or something.

 

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chatster

December 3rd, 2016 at 7:58 AM ^

Grant Newsome fully recovers from his injury and is even stronger and more mobile.
 
Maurice Hurst, Jr. returns for another season, and is even stronger and more mobile than he was this season.
 
Mason Cole, Ben Bredeson and Michael Onwenu all become stronger and more mobile, find their best spots on the offensive line and are rewarded with the same post-season, all-conference honors that Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden and Kyle Kalis received in 2016.
 
If Grant Newsome’s career is over or he’s unavailable before 2018, then a light goes on for Patrick Kugler in his fifth year and he becomes better as a starting offensive lineman in one season for Michigan than his brother Robert was as a four-year starter at center for Purdue.
 
One of the incoming offensive linemen plays at least as well as a starter as Mason Cole and Ben Bredeson did as first-year players.
 
Both Jeremy Clark and Drake Johnson fully recover from their injuries, become stronger and more mobile AND are granted an extra year of eligibility.
 
Najee Harris flips from Alabama, enrolls early and performs at least as well in 2017 for Michigan as Mike Weber performed for Ohio State in 2016.
 
Chris Evans becomes for Michigan in 2017 what Curtis Samuel was for Ohio State in 2017.
 
Among Devin Asiasi, Ian Bunting, Tyrone Wheatley, Jr. and Sean McKeon there’s enough consistently good play to offset the loss of Jake Butt at tight end.
 
Either Wilton Speight’s second year as a starter is equal to or better then J.T. Barrett’s second full year as a starter for Ohio State or Brandon Peters’ first year as a starter is equal to or better then J.T. Barrett’s first full year as a starter for Ohio State.
 
Rashan Gary has a season that surpasses anything that Jadeveon Clowney and Robert Nkemdiche ever did when they were in college.
 
Devin Bush, Jr., Khaleke Hudson, Josh Metellus, Lavert Hill, Brandon Watson, and Noah Furbush all become good enough, so that they offset the losses on defense from those they replace.
 
Four defensive linemen develop well enough to join the rotation in place of Taco Charlton, Chris Wormley, Ryan Glasgow and Matt Godin.
 
Quinn Nordin lives up to his hype and becomes one of the top placekickers in the nation and either Will Hart or an Australian to be named later becomes at least as reliable as Kenny Allen was as a punter in 2016.
 
There are no serious injuries.

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Ghost of Fritz…

December 3rd, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^

One thing to keep in mind...

Every position group this year met or exceeded reasonable August predictions/expections.

That is a sign of great coaching.

Team will be young in 2017, but very talented.  If each position group meets or exceeds reasonable expectations, no reason Michigan would not be in the playoff picture in late November.

 

 

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Procumbo

December 3rd, 2016 at 8:48 AM ^

Agreed. Yes, we lose a lot of experience, but I think it's likely that the transition from Hoke to Harbaugh means better practices at all levels of the organization. There are going to be some benefits from that. I think we can expect some pleasant surprises. Not saying the 2017 edition is going to go out and win a National Championship, but we look to be on a good trajectory going forward.

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 3rd, 2016 at 9:16 AM ^

board has adopted a "peak before the trough" syndrome about this year vs next year.

We definitely have a lot of experience departing after this year, but two years ago that talent didn't overwhelm anyone and the athleticism was questionable vs Utah/Rutgers/MD/Minn. Collectively they became a winning group - because this staff developed them.

1. QB will elevate, perhaps even dramatically. Speight likely starts and might be even more "Big Ben" if Tolbert motivates him to get heavier/stronger.  His arm strength can be improved over the next 9 months if he chooses. Peters is a fantastic athlete and it would not surprise me if JH rolls the dice to put more athleticism on the field.

2. RB will elevate. Evans will be much better with S&C, Isaac and Higdon should be = or +, and Walker will bring a one-cut and slash style that has been missing.

3. WR/TE will be almost equal. Tolbert will physically improve Crawford and McDoom just like Darboh's transformation. DJP will bring more explosiveness. The TE group will be very good to outstanding as a group.

4. OL will be slightly below and maybe equal by late season. Offenses are built from the middle outward and the core will be better. Mason 2nd yr at center will be a big boost. Bredeson will be ++ vs 2016. Onwenu should be + vs Kalis. Tackles are the question - but JH can scheme around tackle in the run game with TE.

5. DL will decline from a 10 to an 8.5. The starting 4 can be very good if Mo returns. Recruiting has to finish well with Solomon and others for some DT depth, but the depth can be accomplished with heavy rotations and Brown's scheming. Look how OSU used DEs, underclassmen and pressure to manage their DL.

6. ILB will be equal maybe better.  McCray will improve and Bush will be a slight drop from Gedeon.  ILB was a big ? for this season but Brown is a tremendous LB coach (Partridge is really the right hand).

7. OLB will change. Nobody replaces Peppers' range and versatility, but Furbush and Hudson can equal him in situational downs. I truly want to see what Brown can do with Uche as a pressure specialist.

8. Secondary will decline from a 10 to 8. Kinnel could be an upgrade - he is smart and steady. Need Metellus or Hudson to improve. I think the CBs will be surprisingly good. Long is a better athlete than Stribling. Hill will obviously not equal Lewis but he can be quite good. Watson will be the same. St Juste has the upside to play in spots.

9. Punting and Returning will drop. Allen and Peppers are so dependable, but Nordin will = Allen in kicking. Punting is solveable. Speed on ST will continue to improve - big improvement if we stop roughing punters (/s).

One safety spot, DT depth and OT are the big unknowns. This staff fixed a giant crater last year to go 10-3. The challenges next year are very manageable by them. Generate more turnovers and some luck, this group can challenge for the B1G title.  It still depends on beating OSU.

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Maynard

December 3rd, 2016 at 9:54 AM ^

The things that will be hardest to replace or at least cause concern for me is Lewis and Peppers are such sure tacklers, Butt is money when it comes to hands (not a ton of drops if I recall correctly), Peppers makes every fair catch, etc. Those things we need to make sure we don't lose ground on. The lines will be adequate to good so I don't worry so much about that. Tackling, tackling, tackling. It makes a good defense great. We will be somewhere from 8-4 to 11-1, though I think 11-1 is unlikelly. If I had to bet, I would say 9-3 or 10-2. Florida, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are the big four games and will determine that obviously.

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alum96

December 3rd, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^

Man that's some Kool Aid for people you have never seen play a down of UM football.  We can hate on Kalis but saying Onwenu will be an upgrade over a 3 year senior starter when you have never seen him play a down of football are the type of stretches that are a bit over the top.

Secondary is going to be a decent chunk drop off IMO.  Think of Channing Stribling 3 years ago vs Channing Stribling of this year.  Think of Jourdan Lewis as a RS FR vs him as a JR.   It will be interesting to see if they play as much press with the young guys.  They look talented on paper and highly touted but saying they are an "8" when you have again not seen many of these guys even play a down of football....

Same for DL.  We benefited immensely from depth.  You are losing multiple NFL guys in Wormley and Glasgow types at a position that benefits "old guys".  Anyone behind the starting 4 if Hurst returns is a reach as a "5" not to mention a "8.5".  And you have no margin for error of injury ala Mone so far injury prone.

LBs I can see being a wash but the DL and secondary are going to take steps back - you had 1 of the most talented players in CFB manning a corner.  I don't think Long or whomever in his first year facing live bullets is going to be within 5 degrees of a senior All American type.

We are going to be built a LOT next year like OSU was this year - a young defense that is not especially deep and lacking some experience but a returning starting QB with parts of the OL returning.  A returning QB is a massive help and I think people continue to undersell Speight here; I am a bit surprised by some comments I see here which are colored by 1 bad game and some bad decisions vs OSU in an otherwise pretty damn good game.  He looked really good for a first year starter. 

OSU 2016 went right into Oklahoma and punched what turned out to be a pretty good team in the jaw.  Let's see if Harbaugh can do this type of stuff with his "own guys" with UM 2017 at a netural field - no more Hoke talent excuses.

You win on the lines and with the QB generally - everything else you can scheme around.  If your lines suck and your QB sucks you are MSU this year.   So we need to find solutions to starting OL, DL depth, and I think we have it at QB.  This is a year Drevno needs to earn his pay big time.

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TheWolverine2

December 3rd, 2016 at 6:58 AM ^

UM still trailing osu in every facet. They beat us with 44 freshmen lost 11 players or something like that to the NFL. We bring back like 43 seniors and still can't beat them. Pathetic really.

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mrkid

December 3rd, 2016 at 8:12 AM ^

There is a stark difference between Harbaugh's second season and Hoke's second season. You're comparing Hoke's first (his only good) to this year, which makes it sound like they were on the same trajectory, when clearly they were not.

Harbaugh has shown that each year, we can expect 9-10 regular season wins. With Hoke, it became evident that we would not have 9-10 win seasons every year.

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mrkid

December 3rd, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^

What makes you think next year is an 8-4 season? Looking at the schedule, nothing concerns me until the road game at Wisconsin. It is very likely that we're 10-0 heading into Camp Randall.

Florida hasn't shown anything the last two years that concerns me for next year. MSU is a tire fire and will be next year. Penn St. on the road is the worst out of those three and Harbaugh has dominated Franklin.

These are things you could never say under Hoke. Michigan can expect 10 wins each season.

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SpikeFan2016

December 3rd, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^

Playing a team like Florida as the first game of the season with such a young team is not going to be easy, especially for our offensive line which was already our weakest spot and is now losing 3/5 starters. 

 

Penn State is scary; road game against a rapidly improving team. Penn State will be coming off a bye and that is 99% going to be a night game in their "White Out."

 

Ohio State is scary for obvious reasons. 

 

At Wisconsin, the week before Ohio State, is certainly much harder than at Iowa was this year and we lost that one. 

 

9-3 would be my baseline for next season at this early juncture. 

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BroadneckBlue21

December 3rd, 2016 at 8:59 AM ^

Absurd. 1. Harbaugh has already sustained two straight 10-win seasons. 2. Harbaugh he been to how many Super Bowls? I think he proved he can coach and will win. 3. Hoke's first season was an anomaly in which we had an easy season and were gifted a trip to the Sugar Bowl and won against a team that was also just good enough in a big conference. Harbaugh has made in-game mistakes in the big games, but he adjusts. The criticism against him is laughable, because we are a few correct calls away from possibly being undefeated, if only one loss. He has UM as a national power, and this is quickly after a near decade of a coaching death penalty on the program. Harbaugh is a top 3 coach in the nation: Saban and Meyer are his peers. He will beat them. Peterson is also up there, proving his abilities with UW. Harbaugh has to work on keeping his composure a little bit more and internally use the anger to make gutsy play calls at the end of games rather than resort to conservative runs. He stopped relying on McDoom and Evans, and I'd love to see them have been given trust at the end of games. What I want to see most next year out of the offense is having all of the RBs playing to be used in all situations. Too easy at end of year for great defenses to key on personnel. Evans skills were underutilized st end. I expect next year for him to be our Curtis Samuel. Perhaps Walker will live up to his hype, or perhaps Higdon makes another leap. Those two were the best returning backs, from what we've seen in games.

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 3rd, 2016 at 9:40 AM ^

It was Hoke's first year with massive TO luck. His 2nd year started to show the regression to the mean just like RR's rising W-L was a regression to the mean. 3rd and 4th years were same regression. Debacles against weak teams like Rutgers and MD and beat downs by MSU.

This 10-2 team played a top 5 SOS. Team was 10-3 last year.  Only one loss in two years of more than 7 points with 3 of the 5 on the last play of the game.  Two different QBs with a cast-ff from Iowa and a 3* that almost no one pegged for high-level starter.  

Surely you recognize the incredible improvement in development, execution, game control and competitiveness in the program compared to Hoke's last few squads. Forward pessimism in those areas isn't justified.

Only three things IMO seem questionable with JH era so far:

1) Can he really recruit at a level to match teams every year with Urban?

2) Can he produce an OL to control games?

3) Can he adjust the culture (maybe it's his own mindset) to outplay the opposition late in games?

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alum96

December 3rd, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^

For item 2 - Drevno and Harbaugh already did it at Stanford.  See the guys who got drafted and where they were ranked; they are getting much higher level talent here without the same academic restrictions.

For item 1 - OSU is at Alabama level in this class.  I don't think we quite catch up but don't need to.  Just be in the ballpark.

For item 3 - maybe when you have that smashmouth Stanford 09 / 10 OL you don't need to adjust.  You just impose.  See alabama.  They don't free wheeling stuff with their QB.  They say this is what we are going to do, now accept it.

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 3rd, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^

1. JH needs to recruit the right talent to compete "on the field every year".  I didn't state recruit on the same level in any context to rankings or even equal depth of talent. The question is recruiting a team that can match the talent on the field. For example, just landing DPJ puts a great talent on the field with Asiasi and Wheatley - that is a far better combination of receiving talent for a JH team than landing three 5* WRs even though the latter "wins" in recruiting circles.

2. The Stanford OL legacy is "thin" with only a couple of very strong seasons.  Was it a mix of guys or special group? We need to see if he can replicate it here. [To my post above, this senior OL group had crucial limitations with agility, drive blocking and recognition.]

3. Yep, a power OL changes the whole game for JH. The opposing front 7 not attriting by the 4th Q is the difference of 12-0 and 10-2 this year. Must get the right OL talent and Drevno must form it into a roadgrading force.

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alum96

December 3rd, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^

Will be interesting year for Brown.  He was handed a Ferrari this year in terms of experience sort of like what Hoke was handed 2011 (albeit not quite as nice of a car).

He has a good track record @ BC and is a good dude, but I think Brian could have coached this year's defense.  Next year will be a big one for him.

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MGoStrength

December 3rd, 2016 at 7:48 AM ^

I thought the offensive line would have been a little better.  IMO they cost us the games we lost and almost Wiscy.  I thought the LBs and QB were better than I expected.  I thought the d-line and the DBs were as expected.  I thought Darboh was better than expected, Butt as expected, and Chesson worse.  I think Speight and Evans were the suprise of the season as they both looked really good and gave me hope for next year.  It's weird to say the offensive line was so meh, that it also gives me confidence that it won't get much worse next year.

 

Overall I think it all went as expected, a lock down defense with a good offense that would sputter against good defenses.  We split with the rivals.  I was thinking somewhere between 1-3 losses, so 10-2 regular season makes sense.  I think we lost the 2 games by a smaller margin than I expected.  I didn't expect to go undefeated and we were within 6 points of doing so.  So, overall I think the season was better than I expected mainly because Speight was pretty good most of the year and he was a total question mark in the beginning.  Combine that with the defense was it was supposed to be and that lead to a great season.

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 3rd, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^

Since you have S&C experience, you might shed more light on 2 observations this year about the WRs:

1. Darboh seemed faster and was a bigger downfield threat. Rare for guys to add speed as 22 year olds. He also looked more fit - both large muscle development and leaner.  Did you notice a difference and do you think one offseason was enough for him to physically improve that much?

2. Chesson was the opposite - he seemed slower and far less explosive. By the bowl game, he was blowing by a fast UF defense.  I really wonder about the knee injury. Did you notice a change and form a hypothesis?

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allintime23

December 3rd, 2016 at 8:26 AM ^

We lost two games on three bad passes. We need to win our bowl game and keep moving forward. 11-2 is better than 10-3 and getting smashed by Alabama isn't going to make anyone feel better. Harbaugh will finally have a real quarterback next year, we're not winning the big ten with Rudock or Speight, sorry.



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