Michigan Basketball is down but will return.
We have a legitimate attrition issue at Michigan. Our kids tend to leave a year earlier than they should and we have transfers that inspire curiosity. Beilein does a very good job at doing more with less but at some point we have to stop the bleeding. We became a great program again by having a few "Program Guys" like Stu, Zak and Jordan. We complimented it with a few nice recruiting classes despite those classes being littered with 3 stars with minimal offer sheets. Our staff coached those kids into All-Americans and we won 2 B1G titiles and finished 2nd in the NCAA tourney.
The recruiting misses over the past couple of years are starting to simply catch up. Beilein has to close on recruits better. The Devin Booker and James Blackmon misses were simply catastrophic. You cannot afford to lose elite guard play if you're not getting it in the form of recruits. It baffles me why Michigan has such a hard time closing on some of these top level recruits. Given the recent track record of Michigan's annual sacrifice to the NBA Gods...you would think we'd have to beat the recruits off with a stick...but that is clearly not the case. We will likely settle this year with a D3 transfer, albeit a promising one. That's not going to cut it and everyone reading this likely knows it as well.
The recruits that we did land last year were of the rushed variety save for Doyle and Chatman. Doyle has been quality for a freshman big but has tapered off rapidly since December. Chatman has been a sizeable disaapointment. He looks a step slow and lost at times. Hopefully his sophomore year will show vast improvement because he still shows flashes here and there. We needed DJ Wilson this year plain and simple. We do not have any athleticism in our big man ranks. I think Dawkins and MAAR project well in the future from an athletic and defensive standpoint and they have turned out surprisingley well on offense. We still needed more star-power and we didn't land it.
Injuries have trashed our season. Not only are Levert and Walton our best players....they're our defensive engines. We cannot play man defense without them. Our on ball defense suffers greatly with them out. Spike is simply a defensive liability. The freshman are coming along nicely but still not ready to lock down opponents. The Wilson injury was brutal and forced us to give extended minutes to Donnal who is simply not ready for significant and consistent contribution.
The ELEPHANT in the room is the Caris Levert decision. It's very simple honestly.....if he goes we will be decent to good next year. Likely 20+ wins. The problem is that Irvin and Walton will shoulder a ton of scoring. This will put at least Irvin in line to make the NBA jump after next year. Our next deep run will come with an upper-classmen laiden squad. Levert leaving will put a serious damper in that. His foot will be healed up around Pre-Draft workouts and his decision will be interesting to say the least. If Levert came back....Michigan would be good to elite. Huge jump, I know...but Caris is a Wooden Award guy next year as a Senior. He's a shoe in for B1G POY candidacy and a top 10 draft pick in 2016 if healthy. Just take a peek at our potential lineup with Levert in Maize and BLue next year......
Walton (jr) - SPike (sr)
Irvin(jr) - MAAR (so)
Levert (sr) - Dawkins (so) / Robinson (Rso)
Chatman (so) - Wilson (So)
Doyle (So)- Donnal (Rso)
In order for us to get back to where we were, someone is going to have to make a "Program" decision. I won't rib our guys for going and getting paid but I sensed a little bit of pain and heavy thought on GR3's face tonight. I personally think he should have stayed. He would've been featured and flourished into a likely 1st round pick. I don't want Caris to make a similar mistake. Caris needs to clean up a few aspects of his game in my opinion and put on 15 more pounds to be an asset at the next level. He can obviously get drafted this year but will he be effective? Nik has learned that a top 10 selection means nothing as far as effectiveness and play time. He was paid a handsome ransome and wound up on a guard heavy team so you can argue fairness to his situation. Mitch has looked like an absolute beast as of late and he wouldv'e easily trashed the NCAA if he was still enrolled at Michigan. Caris will have our fate in his hands with his decision and he should absolutely make the decision for his best interest. It would just be nice to see a kid with his ability stay and lead us as a Senior.
In regards to tonight's ass whipping.....we gave up 62% shooting. We were out-rebounded by 8 and out-blocked 3 to 1. We lost the assist battle by 7. We were beat in every phase of the game and going zone all day against a team that is streaky-good like MSU, renders you liable to watch them have a great night shooting the basketball. We looked dissinterested for stretches of the 1st half and looked far inferior athletically. That frickin' hurts because we have been explosive and athletic the last couple of years and watching MSU swing off of our rims all night is simply not acceptable. Our team is beat up and disadvantaged but we've got to stop feeling sorry for ourselves. Guys like Spike and Irvin need to play a lot better. THis is their opportunity to lead and take this program over in Levert and Walton's absence. We need more from them. Irvin and Spike continue to disspoint defensively and that is unnacceptable from veteran guys. Bielein has a huge task on his hands to get this team to finish with some pride this season. It's going to have to start from the top though. MAAR shouldn't have to be the spark. The fresman should be playing up to match the veteran guys, not the other way around. The disparity athleticlaly was very evident tonight. I think we need to really make a focus of getting more athletic in these next few recruiting classes.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:48 AM ^
I love them both, but Dawkins has the higher ceiling I think, because he's a sick athlete.
I think Dawkins is going to be absurdly good - I think MAAR can be really, really good, as well - but he doesn't have quite the same athletic ceiling as Dawkins. He's as explosive as his father with more ups.
Oh, edited to add that I also couldn't possibly have more confidence that Dawkins is going to work his ass off and become more well-rounded. You can just see it on the kid's face. Great intensity, looks as coachable as it gets.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:32 AM ^
even if it were a wee bit long.
Michigan Basketball isn't going away while Coach Beilein is still leading. Get some guys back healthy next season with some experience under their belts. Retool a bit. Get some of our players to hit the weights a little more. We WILL be happy again.
But in the meantime, still proud of the effort I'm seeing from this team. To be so badly undermanned and overmatched once the injuries piled up, and yet to be soooo very close to being 2-3 games better in B1G play (if not for the OT fiascos), no way I'm gonna bad-mouth anyone in the Michigan Basketball Program.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:29 AM ^
Beilein's an awesome coach and I wouldn't trade him after the mess we endured for 20 years, but I'm suspect on his recruiting thanks to his system that alienates the bigs, especially now that Izzo has the upper hand again, winning 3 straight.
What I wouldn't give for an athletic/dominant big man on this program... Last time we had one (McGary) we reached the finals. The time before that (C-Webb 20 yrs ago) we reached the finals as well...
I don't see this team ever going deep again into the tournament unless Beilein can start lining up a few McGary level bigs.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:33 AM ^
McGary was the game-changer. We need to find another high-level B1G.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^
Izzo has the upper hand because they beat us in the BTT last year and then swept a bad, injury depleted team this year? His recruiting says otherwise.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
Uhh his recruiting doesn't say shit otherwise. Izzo's 2015 class has a 5 star and two 4 stars (ESPN) coming in.... on top of that according to 247 they're also in the lead for Winston, a guy Beilein is competing with Izzo for directly.
MSU isn't going anywhere. They're only getting more talented.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:02 AM ^
More talented compared to what? MSU looks due for a significant drop-off next year losing their two best players, and that's after a significant drop off this year. They'll always be solid under Izzo, but I don't see their team being all that talented the next two years.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:17 AM ^
Should have worded it better. They're replacing senior talent with top100 freshman talent, who could be more or equally as talented as the seniors when they were freshmen. As freshmen they may not be better, but they're essentially reloading. Izzo also manages to keep his players in EL for 3-4 years so it's not that likely that they will fall off if he has one bad recruiting year like UM did. Even with Levert and Walton, we were probably a last 4 in/bubble type team.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
Izzo manages to keep his players in EL longer because he's had very little NBA talent in the last 10 years. He hasn't been able to hang on to his NBA talent much better than Beilein. I'm sure Green and Payne will be pointed out, but those guys were late 2nd rounders/undrafted type guys after their Junior years. They really helped themselves out as seniors, and even then Green did not become a 1st rounder. Dawson is another talented player that's stayed 4 years, but he'll probably go undrafted. Not really a huge sample size of NBA talent to determine anything from anyway.
All the Michigan guys that have gone pro were thought to be, at worst, borderline 1st rounders. With the exception of maybe Manny Harris, it was their circumstance that led them to go pro, not Beilein's inability to hang on to them.
February 18th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
who we passed on for some reason.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:51 AM ^
We might have won that game against Kentucky if we had a McGary/CWebb type.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:43 AM ^
You made me sad.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:00 AM ^
if they had had a healthy McGary or another athletic big-man. They got dominated in the paint all game long.
Also just a technical point but the game was tied so we weren't a buzzer beater away from a win.
And Michigan's recruiting is nothing to write home about. Izzo and Beilein are 6-6 in their last 12 matchups I believe.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:31 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 12:34 AM ^
He should play more IMO. He goes hard.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:32 AM ^
bullshit out when he's finally facing a Beilein team that has no chance against his still pretty crappy team.
We don't even have Walton, and yes, that was the last straw.
I think people around here have no concept how good Walton is. He is right up there with the best rebounding guards I've ever seen at Michigan. He may be the best.
It was so obvious his foot was a mess and he was landing on it funnier and funnier all year - the same dunderheads who scoffed at that "excuse" are the same people bailing out on this program.
February 19th, 2015 at 3:35 AM ^
you fucking muppet
February 18th, 2015 at 12:33 AM ^
Love Coach B but here is some things as a fan I think he fails at
1. He waits to long to offer kids. We're always behind on kids recruiting wise the way he does stuff
2. He believes in his system and the way he develops kids so much that he takes chances on to many project kids.
3. Have to recruit athletic Bigs and not just smart spot up shooter types. We got destroyed down low cause we have nobody who can play low post defense or anybody who's a threat down low and you can't have that and win.
4. Glen left because Coach B is stubborn with his system and tries to me SG/SF kids play the four and that doesn't give them a chance to show case their game. Why get beat up on for free when you can go the NBA and set and get paid?
5. Can't always be the undersized team especially when your bigs are not very good to begin with.
Like I said I love Coach B but he's going to have to tweak his system a little bit. People keep pointing out that he lost kids well guess what all good teams lose kids. You can't recruit kids thinking they're going to be here 4yrs and think we're going to compete for National Titles. You have to recruit kids hard every year. Anyways I think will be ok next year pry 4th place in The Big Ten and second round loss in Tourney.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^
Yes, all teams lose kids. However, most do not lose their top 7 kids in one year.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^
We didn't lose our top 7 in one year either. We lost Trey and Tim after the national title run. Than we lost Mitch (who never really played last year) Glen and Nik and Jordan graduated. Now look at the kids we've recruited to replace them? Irvin,Walton and Chatman were all good kids but the rest of the kids were all projects at best. And our low post recruiting is horrible.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:44 AM ^
McGary
Stauskas
Robinson
Morgan
Horford
Levert
Walton
Those were our top 7 players from last year's team, and none of them are playing for us right now.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:34 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^
We can lose out top 7 and also expect that JB recruit better. Donnal and Chatman were misses. And not getting one of Booker, Blackmon, Blueitt, Tate, Diop, etc. was killer to this years chances. Meanwhile 2015 is a DIII transfer and likely nothing else.
So recruiting has been trending down exactly when it should be trending up. I think it is entirely fair to question that.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 2:10 AM ^
Just for the record...
February 18th, 2015 at 2:48 AM ^
great argument. Ok, fine, Beilein only lost 6 of his top 7. Great take.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:48 AM ^
We lost to New Jersey Institute when we had Caris and Walton healthy and to add on to that McGary really didn't even play last season. So we lost Glen,Nik,Horford (who contributed little) plus Morgan. We signed nobody but Chatman who was even a top recruit after two succesful seasons in a row. Wilson,Doyle,Dawkins and Maar were all basically projects. Now looks like two of them (Dawkins,Maar) will end up being good but they actually needed to be redshirted. Neither knows how to play defense yet.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:59 AM ^
shows what you don't know.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:10 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 9:09 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^
That's not the point. We were #17 (probably not the most accurate ranking at that point) at home and they were...NJIT (RPI in the 200s at the IIRC). That was a straight up embarrassment.
Rationalize it with injuries doesn't change that.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 2:47 AM ^
and Horford. Yes, GR3 is totally reaping the rewards for not staying and being the best player on our team by sitting most of the NBA season. What "project kid" would you rather not have? Chatman? one of the top recruits and "athletic bigs" we supposedly never recruit?
February 18th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^
Have you ever watched Chapman play? He's the least athletic kid we have on our roster and that includes Spike. I am not sure how any service rated this kid a top player. You have to have kids who can control the Paint this whole no low post stuff is old and it's never going to produce a National Title. Remember almost winning and winning are two different things.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 6:41 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
nor can he shoot from the outside. So I am not sure what they are supposed to do with that skillset.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:40 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 12:42 AM ^
whether he does it or not is up to him.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
His body isn't close to ready and he's jumping from a very low level of HS bkb. The summer circuit can show talent, but success there doesn't begin to indicate that you're ready to compete against the bodies/skill level/teams you see in a top level D1 conference.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:50 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^
where it's made explicitly clear that the kids don't have to go to class.
I think you go to Kentucky, you live in "The Coal Lounge," a 5 star chef makes your meals, your sole focus is basketball and who gives a fuck about class?
That or a pay scale issue.
I'm sorry, I know people will call sour grapes, but the way guys have become stars in this program, I just can't understand it any other way.
Even my friends who went to Duke say those kids are just not on the same academic program as our kids are on.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:50 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 1:04 AM ^
"Coach seems like such a good guy so what could possibly be holding us back?"
Answered your own question. And let's not act like Beilein is bringing crap talent here. He had one mediocre year of recruiting.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:47 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 6:03 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 7:50 AM ^
Let's keep some perspective. I don't think Beilein's long term recruiting plan included having to replace 7 non-seniors over the past 2 seasons. When your attrition rate is higher than anticipated, you're probably going to have to settle for some Plan B types. Pile on the other facts that folks have already pointed out that make recruiting at Michigan tougher than other places (Adidas school, players actually expected to be students, etc.) and it's a recipe for a dip now and again.
This time last year, Michigan had swept MSU in the regular season match-up and was on it's way to winning the conference outright by 3 games, when MSU was the preseason favorite to win B1G and take the National Title. We're going to be fine.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^