OT: Hypothetical: kentucky vs. 76ers
To those that don't want to click, the 76ers would only beat kentucky 74% of the time at home and only 56% on the road. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/kentucky-would-lose-to-the-76ers-at-…
December 13th, 2014 at 1:17 AM ^
Jordan McRae, all-SEC superstar guard of last year and significantly better than any guard UK had, couldn't hack it in the NBA.
December 13th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
my pipedream hobby is to start a sports blog similar to fivethirtyeight with my dad, sister, and brother-in-law. they are all statisticians, and i was pitching the idea of actually breaking down this question to make a model of kentucky's performance against nba teams. i just emailed it to my family, and i can't wait to see how they think this model holds up.
as an aside, nate silver spoke at the american statistical association meetings a couple years ago, and word around the cooler was talk was pedestrian at best. but, take it with a grain of salt because statisticians hate economists.
god, i was raised in a nerdy ass home.
December 13th, 2014 at 2:59 AM ^
"It’s also likely those numbers vastly overestimate Kentucky’s chances."
December 13th, 2014 at 3:25 AM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 8:44 AM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 3:44 AM ^
This is one of those things where 538's model is fos, like when they were giving Brazil something like a 70% chance to win the World Cup with multiple rounds still to play. Assuming the 76ers were actually trying, they would beat Kentucky by 15-20 on average. People above are right that its basketball so Kentucky would probably take a few in there in a 82-game set, but the idea that Kentucky would win 44% of the games at home is looooooooooolbsurd.
December 13th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 8:40 AM ^
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December 13th, 2014 at 8:32 AM ^
Just based on the fact that even a horrific 76ers team is centered around some of the more serviceable players to come out of the NCAA ranks recently, you can already see where that is going in a way. I didn't think of it in terms of RPM values though, so it is fascinating that the 76ers roster would be below average entirely, but I can totally believe that using the same methodology would produce an even worse result for an NCAA team - even Kentucky.
December 13th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
I'm sure if these two teams played 100 times Kentucky might be able to luck into a win or two, but the 76ers are all former college players (or equivalents) who were good enough to play in the NBA; Kentucky has a nice starting 5 and 1-2 bench players, but they are all still college players, not as physically developed, and have bench guys who are not, in all likelihood, going to play in the NBA. I know that you just need 7 guys to win games now, but even the worst NBA team would crush virtually every college team.
I like when people do these analyses because they are fun, but it also tends to highlight the differences between the analytics and "common sense" sides of these arguments.
December 13th, 2014 at 9:27 AM ^
It's just blind "just because."
There's never any real reasoning when someone argues against it.
And just because the 76ers would go undefeated in college basketball doesn't mean UK would go winless in the NBA.
Just sit and think about how the sport is played. It's 5 on 5. You don't need depth in 1, 2, even 7 games.
Football is 24 guys and you HAVE to substitute in game at certain positions. No one is playing every snap. It's also a much more phyical sport. You have grown men on offense and defensive lines. It just naturally, with the human body and development can't happen.
Not to mention experience and skill level.
Basketball is so different.
December 13th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
I have no idea what you are responding to. At no point do I bring up football, because obviously those are two different sports. I have to imagine there is a missing comment here, or else you or I are completely misreading each other.
December 13th, 2014 at 9:20 AM ^
Anyone with blind bullshit about how it could never happen is just ignorant.
UK would be AWFUL in the NBA. They wouldn't be winless.
UK wouldn't beat the 76ers in a playoff series. They could win a game.
...it's just common sense if you know anything about the sport. It's not a gap like football, even based off the rules of the game and the number of players on the courts versus on a football field.
I said it last time, in the NFL there are college players who aren't eligible for the NFL that could play in the NFL. There is NO team that could EVER compete in the NFL - in fact, I'd set the number of first downs for the entire game (for the college team) at 4.5. And in a blowout, when you always have the ball, 5 first downs isn't very many.
We have to chill, no one (sane) is saying UK would destroy the 76ers or they're better. They're just saying they could win a basketball game.
We just lost to NJIT and EMU. If anyone looked a little deeper into a hypothetical upset in basketball, I'd think it'd be us.
December 13th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 9:50 AM ^
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December 13th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 10:16 AM ^
UK would lose every game.
December 13th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
If you read the article correctly, its stated that the numbers that they ended up with (74% and 56%) aren't very accurate anyways because they had to basically value the performance of Kentucky's players as if they were pros.
December 13th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^
it makes a difference
December 13th, 2014 at 11:01 AM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
I don't understand how those percentages can be calculated. The two teams are going up against completely different levels of competition.
At any rate, the idea that UK would win 12 times out 100 against an average (i.e., borderline playoff) NBA team is absurd, and the percentages against Philly seem way, way inflated.
December 13th, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 4:27 PM ^
but people wanted to put them against the Geen Bay Packers.
In an 82 games season, Kentucky would win 5-7 games.
A more interesting matchup would be if this Kentucky team took on 1990-91 UNLV (still, the best college BB team that I've ever seen).
December 14th, 2014 at 12:28 AM ^
There is no way Kentucky goes 0-82 as a NBA team. I mean Pop would probably sit his stars against them - so there's one potential win there....
I always like these what if scenarios with college vs pro teams, but I think that in the past 20 years there have been very few collegiate teams bball or fball that could actually pull it off. The strength and conditioning and 24/7 training lifestyle of pro athletes with many many years of this training as compared to 18-22 year olds just makes is almost virtually impossible.
I'm not saying there haven't been some really really bad pro teams that on a bad day couldn't lose to a collegiate team, but it really does seem inplausible. Still fun to talk about though....