Coaching Candidates Part 1: The Power 5
WELP. When you're a four point dog to Rutgers it's time to start keeping an eye on potential new head coaches.
Pipedreams
Jim Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, Kevin Sumlin, and various others are not discussed because you know who those people are and it's unlikely Michigan secures them. They're passed over primarily because they're obviously desirable. You don't need to be told Jim Harbaugh seems like a good idea.
Too old
It's not worth the risk to hire anyone approaching retirement except in very specific circumstances like "this is the only head coach we've ever been any good under"—looking at you, Kansas State. So out go David Cutcliffe (60), Mike Riley (61), Gary Pinkel (62), and, uh, Kirk Ferentz (59), because it would be ULTIMATE MICHIGAN to go after Kirk Ferentz. I'd take Art Briles in a hot second even though he's 58, but he's also lumped in here or pipedreams since he seems impossible to pry out of Waco. 61-year-old Les Miles is also in this group. If he had a time, it was 2007. I'm not saying there's no chance… but there isn't much of one. And you already know all about him anyway.
Gentlemen of note, then.
Power 5 Head Coaches
Look before we name a name you're going to be all like "oh what if Michigan is a poor cultural fit with the spread shouldn't we go get a pro-style guy or something"… there just aren't many to consider. I included the obvious guy.
DAN MULLEN, MISSISSIPPI STATE
BASICS: 40-28 in his sixth season in Starkville. SEC record 17-24, which is actually rather good for a Bulldogs head coach. Was Urban Meyer's OC before that, and his QB coach at BGSU and Utah. 42.
PROS: Turned previously inept MSU into decent program. Young. High level experience in recruiting wars and as national-championship-level OC.
CONS: Has acquired a great deal of his wins against tomato-can laden nonconference schedule and still struggles to win half his SEC games. Reaction to recent suspension of starting OL for multiple in-game stomping incidents was from the Dave Brandon school of PR.
OVERALL: Desirability on a knife edge right now. If he follows up LSU win with season that sees Mississippi State end up a solid top 25 program he will be a hot name. Slip down to the 7/8 win level he's been at and it's questionable.
MIKE GUNDY, OKLAHOMA STATE
BASICS: Is a man. Is 47. In his tenth season at Okie State, 80-39 record with one Big Twelve championship and Fiesta Bowl win; two other ten-win seasons. Before that was Les Miles's OC.
PROS: Good coach who can insert any sentient being at quarterback and see that guy/spaceplant pass for 300 yards. Young for a guy with a decade as a head coach. Knows what he wants his program to be.
CONS: Availability questionable. Is currently at alma mater and has T. Boone backing him. Last time Michigan pried a dude away from his alma mater things went poorly, partially because of the reputation a man acquires when he leaves his home base. May not have left Oklahoma except for road games in 30 years.
OVERALL: If you can get him, hell yes. Probably can't get him.
[After THE JUMP: the last manball unicorn]
TODD GRAHAM, ARIZONA STATE
BASICS: Been a head coach since 2006 at four different stops including one-year stints at Rice and Pitt. Had three ten-win seasons with Tulsa, guided ASU to a 10-4 season with an 8-1 Pac 12 record last year. 21-10 so far in his career. Before that was the DC at Tulsa. 49.
PROS: Successful everywhere he's been that he was at for more than a year. Despite defensive orientation, runs effective, high tempo offenses.
CONS: Wears Britney Spears mic on sidelines. Inveterate job-hopper. Bad haircut.
OVERALL: Bo would die again if Michigan had a guy with that mic.
DAVID SHAW, STANFORD
BASICS: 37-8 in three years as Stanford's head coach with three BCS appearances. was Harbaugh's OC for four years prior to that and his WR/QB coach at San Diego. Before that was an NFL assistant with the Raiders and Ravens. 42. Seems poachable what with Stanford's attendance struggles and his relatively modest salary.
PROS: The last manball unicorn. Literally the only successful pro-style college head coach who might be available. Great record, has plenty of experience coping with spread offenses, and in year four concerns that he's just riding Harbaugh's coattails are minimal. Operates in high academic environment; already proficient at selling the kind of guys who want to go to Michigan.
CONS: Punted from his own 29 in the midst of dominating USC and still losing to them, a Lloyd Carr callback I would prefer not to relive. Stanford alum experiencing great success at his alma mater, remember last time we poached guy from alma mater, etc.
OVERALL: Despite the punting thing and the boggling USC loss would be a hire that checks every last box. I'd live with the offense, assuming he could in fact implement it.
BUTCH JONES, TENNESSEE
BASICS: Took over for Brian Kelly when he left CMU for Cincinnati, then took over for Brian Kelly when he left Cincinnati for Notre Dame. Improved both of those programs, with CMU having an undefeated MAC season en route to a 11-2 record and taking Cincinnati to two Big East Championships. 5-7 in his first year at Tennessee, currently 2-2. 46.
PROS: Age. Michigan native. Good amount of experience at places that are not naturally successful. Seems to have made Tennessee a lot better this year—they just about beat Georgia.
CONS: RR/Kelly associations may poison well both ways. Leaving Tennessee after two years would be a hard sell. Vols could match any offer.
OVERALL: If he is amenable to courting, I would court. Relying on M's historical place in the firmament over Tennessee's somewhat more dubious place in the cutthroat SEC to do so.
KEVIN WILSON, INDIANA
BASICS: Longtime OC at Miami (Not That Miami), Northwestern, and Oklahoma got the Indiana job in 2011. After 1-11 opener has turned IU into a chaos team that can win or lose any game with their lightning speed offense and horrendous defense. 52.
PROS: Indiana's offense.
CONS: Indiana's defense.
OVERALL: I'm not seeing it. Offense is pretty gimmicky, hasn't actually gotten to a bowl game. While I'm usually skeptical of arguments that the things that happen when your defense is off the field have a major impact on it, the extreme tempo that Indiana uses to be competitive is an exception.
OTHERS
NW's Pat Fitzgerald seemed more attractive four years ago. So did TCU's Gary Patterson. If Paul Chryst could actually put together a nice season for Pitt he'd be a guy to look at, but he hasn't so far. Randy Edsall might not be the worst idea in the world and how depressing is that? Al Golden might get sick of Miami, but his tenure so far isn't amazing. If Gary Andersen's amenable I'm interested; don't think that's likely. Oregon's Mark Helfrich is only paid 1.8 million dollars so Michigan could sniff around to secure him a nice raise. Bret Bielema… nevermind.
*shudders*
October 1st, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^
but how is it self-serving?
October 1st, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
I agree completely Magnus Ver Magnusson. We have a large group of people that are overly emotional at the moment and it isn't helping the program one bit. The regents are smart enough to see the errors of Brandon's tenure and they will make the proper changes when the time is right. The team doesn't need it's fans turning on them. They're clearly struggling and a lack of support from their supposedly amazing supporters is just going to make things worse. Part of the reason top talent comes to Michigan is for the gameday experience. If we compound the ineptness of the current team with a lack of support from the fans it's just going to hurt the program even more. We have to support the current team and hope they can turn it around and get some positive results. We have to do our part to help make the transition as seamless as possible. So try your best to control your emotions and think about the big picture.
October 1st, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
October 1st, 2014 at 2:45 PM ^
I have a big problem with the call to boycott. Maryland is senior day. So great, let's turn our backs on Devin Gardner (among others) on senior day? That's an awful, awful idea. I know what the intent of the boycott is, but if it would be at the expense of senior day for the students, it is decidedly NOT worth it. Surely there's a better way than a boycott. The players deserve better. There are ways of getting the point across without collateral damage. And besides, I think it was made loud and clear this week...so I'm not sure to what end a boycott will accomplish anyway.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
Do you expect the Michigan admin to do literally nothing about finding a new coach until the old one is officially fired?
October 1st, 2014 at 11:23 AM ^
October 1st, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
a jovial guy, who used to be a UM assistant, whom they think they can control instead of a proven winner? Oh, I thought we were pretending this was four years ago.
EDIT: If sarcastic, well played.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
The only way that Hoke could possibly remain the head coach at Michigan would be an undefeated sprint through the rest of the Big Ten season, with no more PR disasters like this Saturday.
That would require beating OSU and MSU on the road. Those things are not happening. At best, Michigan is looking at a 7-5 season with losses to all three rivals, more than likely two of them in humiliating fashion. On top of this, no road game is safe during the Hoke era and the mystique of him being a winning coach at home is long gone.
So getting a jump on the HC search is rather smart.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^
Likelihood? Brian's 0.1% seems on the right order-of-magnitude.
October 1st, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
0.1% seems a little high to me. If I had to guess, the probability of us going undefeated through the rest of conference play is 0.0000001%
October 1st, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
8-4 with improved play from the team could do it. After the last two weeks - where it became clear to my stubborn mind that Hoke and his staff are being outcoached by most serious opponents - I wouldn't agree with this. But if Brandon survives, the team plays better, and they only drop the EL game, Hoke could remain.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
A win over Ohio State might do it, but again, I'm 99.9999999999% sure that isn't happening. I'm also 95% sure that OSU/MSU aren't the only two games Michigan drops from here on out.
October 1st, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
I'm with you, but I'm just saying there's a scenario other than undefeated the rest of the way out, under which Hoke remains.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
I totally agree with this. All Hoke really needs to do is perform his job to the standards expected by everyone (himself included, I'm sure). So far this year, he's not done that.
If he can begin doing that, he could save his job.
October 1st, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
It depends on how many games he gets to coach. I'm setting the o/u at 0.5. I think the only reason he is still here is that it takes more than couple of days to handle his dismissal properly. Time will tell who's right.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
"WELP. When you're a four point dog to Rutgers it's time to start keeping an eye on potential new head coaches."
October 1st, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^
Only time is on Brady's side and even it's turning on him after this week.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
save for retirement before it happens?
October 1st, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
In what realm of the imagination does Brady Hoke lead the team on the field in 2015? I'm not trying to be a dick, that's a serious question based on current events and performance over his Michigan tenure.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
If Hoke wins the next seven games, I think he keeps his job.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
If Hoke wins the next 7 games, the B1G East might get sent to the AAC....
October 1st, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
Based on your observations, what do you think the odds of that happening are?
October 1st, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^
From what I've seen, the chances are near zero. But sometimes teams go on crazy winning streaks. The 2000 New York Giants won five straight games to make the playoffs...
This team has plenty of talent to pull it off, but it's obviously very unlikely to occur.
October 1st, 2014 at 3:03 PM ^
Agreed, and while I occassionally play the lottery, I certainly don't spend my ficitional winnings in my head since I know the odds. Rather, I make preparations to goto work the next day and if somehow lighting strikes, I'll worry about the positive outcome then.
October 1st, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^
If pigs fly on the Diag tomorrow, i think Hoke keeps his job.
October 1st, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
finishes .500 he will be pushing the youth excuse and will say 2015 will be a B1G championship season. Brandon will give him and staff a contract extension!
Any of the coach listed will do a great job. I would hate losing Mattison but there are even signs of poor coaching my some of his assistant coaches on defense.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^
Before focusing on the coach, I think we should look at AD candidates outside the obvious ones in Manuel and Bates. As much as Brady Hoke has floundered, bringing in another coach before Brandon is gone is not worthwhile in my opinion. If Hoke is fired and Brandon is making the hire, then none of these candidates listed will come. Fire Brandon now, go after Jim Harbaugh, if he accepts, great, if he doesn't, give Hoke one more year post-Brandon (or less if there's another implosion), and then go after Chip Kelly once he's worn his welcome out in the NFL. His show cause penalty with the NCAA is up at this point.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
Chip Kelly? He won his division in his first year, with Nick Foles as the QB of his spread team. He's 3-1 so far this season. Uh, I don't think he'll be available this year.
October 1st, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
Under the scenrio I listed above, we'd fire the AD this year. The new AD would reach out to Jim Harbaugh about the job. If he's not interested, we should retain Hoke one more year and try for Chip Kelly (or Harbaugh again) next year if Hoke can't right the ship without Brandon's sideshow hampering his program. Chip Kelly is having success right now, but many of his players don't like his practices and his style of coaching. If they start losing, he might lose his locker room.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
Which is all great and everything until one considers what Schlissel may be looking for in a new AD.
He's an academic, whose first professional experience with a collegiate athletic department is extremely negative and poorly-timed, and that's bound to inform his concept of the ideal replacement candidate. I think there's a danger that he's going to find a milquetoast AD, and let Michigan athletics die a nice slow, quiet death, so he can get back to what he considers his real job. Disdain for athletics by a university president is not exactly unprecedented.
October 1st, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
In fact, the idea that Schlissel might go all UChicago on everyone and call the whole thing off has also crossed my mind.
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October 1st, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^
He's not a dictator. He doesn't have the clout to do that.
October 1st, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^
Eh, I woudn't worry about that too much. Schlissel may not like how big college athletics have become, but he's unlikely to reverse the course of U-M sports revenue / fanbase growth. I know, "no politics" but think of this as an analogy:
- Obama gets elected and Reps warn that Defense spending will be "gutted". Please check defense spending in the last six years. It has not gone down.
- Similarly, Bush gets elected and Dems warn that he will gut social spending programs and education. Again, check spending numbers during the Bush years. All of these things went upward.
So what do U-M athletics and the size of US government budgets have in common? They are both massive entities with momentum of their own. One person cannot come in and change those things, not without sabotaging anything else they would like to accomplish. What's more likely is that Shlissel will just choose an AD who he can delegate things to and not be involved at all. Which kinda bodes well for a polished, experienced type of AD IMO.
I don't think this really *is* a political post, but mods feel free to delete if you think it is.
October 1st, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
You made it bi-partisan and only used politics as an analogy for a larger point, and it's a good point.
It's theoretically possible Schlissel might be so alarmed at the outsized role athletics plays at UM and colleges in general that he really tries to downgrade the athletic program at Michigan, but that's pretty damn unlikely. Too many forces -- alumni, Regents, donors, media -- would be all over him if he tried that. More likely, as S FL Wolverine predicts, is that Schlissel eventually tries to replace Brandon with someone competent (so he doesn't have to THINK much about the athletic department), but even more, someone who respects the idea that athletics is not the end-all, be-all of the University of Michigan, and who tries to (within reason) tone down the rampant commercialization and hucksterism instituted by Brandon. I think we'd all be happy with that.
The real question is, will Schlissel (and the Regents) know a good AD when they see one?
October 1st, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^
Schlissel will probably listen to the advice of others (regents?), and that advice will probably lead to candidates already discussed here like Manuel, Bates, etc. Choosing someone with Michigan ties would be a natural to avoid "being hasseled" and truly being able to delegate and walk away. I'm sure those names have been leaked for a reason and that involves at least someone on the inside who wants to see Manuel or Bates or someone similar. I think DB *is* done, the question is just when. Probably season end. Honestly, I don't think this team will win another game. Look at the schedule and tell me who you think they will beat? Football is above all is based on complex organizing skills and this staff has shown the inability to minimally organize anything. Lesser-talented teams will (and have) beat Michigan simply because they have a head coach with basic organization skills.
I was thinking the other day about the parellels between RichRod and Hoke. How both were done in on one side of the ball; how they replaced coordinators and made them scape goats; how the new coordinators had even *worse* results. Not sure what the lesson is there, but it's pretty striking.
Anyhow, from Beilein we know a good coach can come in and succeed here. The athletic department is not *that* poisoned. A new AD can clean out some of the marketer MBA types and bring back some of the "retired" administrators to bring back some traditional perspective.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
Other than the fire Dave Brandon part this is literally one of the worst plans I've ever seen. Hoke can't last past this year and don't even get me started on why Chip Kelly is not and will never be an option.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^
Other than in physical presence, do we actually have a head coach?
October 1st, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
No he's pretty much a figurehead at this point.
October 1st, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
Have we since 2010?
October 1st, 2014 at 11:33 AM ^
... at this point the only argument I can see for keeping Hoke around is that his struggles have been made worse by dealing with interference from an AD who fundamentally cannot be trusted, and he deserves a chance to work for a boss who isn't an egotistical slimeball with delusions of marketing competence. That's pretty speculative and even if it's true I don't know if it will carry the day.
October 1st, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^
we still have a coach, but Brian is just trying to help the administration for the job search. No biggie.
Looking forward to non-Power 5 coach possibilities as well as...AD possibilities?
Y'know...just to give the admin assistants something to pass on to Schlissel.
October 1st, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
Did "Marcus Brooks" just get the record for largest organic negbang?
October 1st, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^
October 1st, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^
October 1st, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
Slightly?
October 1st, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^
I look at all of these guys and all I can think about is "why couldn't we have just hired the right guy in 2007?"
October 1st, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^
Just for pointless argument's sake, who would that have been?
October 1st, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^
The Hat, of course.
October 1st, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
Maybe there's a coach who hates his AD somewhere.
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