Opening lines: UM +5.5 vs ND
UM +5.5 vs ND. http://mobile.betonline.ag/sports/offerings?s=Football&l=NCAA&p=0 Also: MSU opens +11 vs Oregon Really like taking the points for both teams. Think UM has a ton of early season value based off last year. UM on the money line could be very nice.
EDIT: Lines have already moved, UM down to +5, MSU up to +12
August 31st, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^
I wouldn't touch that MSU line with a ten foot pole, but if I had to, I would go Oregon -11. MSU will finally play an offense that can punish them for playing every guy within 5 yards of the LOS.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:40 PM ^
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August 31st, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 5:03 PM ^
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August 31st, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
Stop being such a daisy.
August 31st, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^
You, intrepid message board poster, should probably learn how Vegas sets it's lines before you get snarky with other people. I'd hate for you to look foolish while chastizing other people.
August 31st, 2014 at 7:57 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:59 PM ^
I have to agree here, another example would be how Stanford has beaten Oregon the last two years
August 31st, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^
Yeah Stanford is the go to example here. Two years in a row they've upset Oregon playing the same kind of physical grind it out style State uses. It'll be an interesting game to see if State still has it defensively, or if Oregon has finally found a way to adapt to that kind of physical defense.
All that said, I'd stay far away from an 11 point line. Feels like it'll be like a 4pt difference or 3 TD difference kind of game. If Oregon cracks the defensively code, State won't be able to stop them or keep up with them.
August 31st, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
the perceived value of the B1G to rise, and us to manhandle them with OUR defense on October 25.
August 31st, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^
This is the one that no one is really talking about. Given Wisconsin's choke job against LSU, this game is pretty much the Big Ten's one and only shot at the playoff. If State wins, the Big Ten is in great shape to grab a slot. If they lose, its more likely than not that they will be the power five conference left out of the playoffs.
August 31st, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^
Yes, it's a classic "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you" case.
At least one Power 5 champion is going to be left out. It won't be the SEC. Because ESPN. It won't be FSU if they win the ACC because of last year.
There is a three-way fight between the B1G, Pac12, and Big12 to not be the one left out when the music stops. We are already behind the 8 ball with the Wiscy choke. Especially because they did it in such "Big Ten" fashion - one-dimensional running game, not enough athletes at WR and CB to keep up.
The Sparty game is the B1G's last great hope to make a statement . . . that if you are leaving a conference out, go look elsewhere.
August 31st, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^
The Pac-12 will make it too. They are 1B to the SEC's 1A these days. And top to bottom it might be the best conference in CFB. So that leaves things as a B1G v Big 12 race and I think Oklahoma has a better shot of making it than anyone else in the Big Ten.
August 31st, 2014 at 10:55 PM ^
School me on this. It's not all about conference unless records are tied in my mind. I would hope the selection commitee would honor that in their judgment. ESPN doesn't have a vote as I understand the scheme.
August 31st, 2014 at 5:53 PM ^
MSU or Ohio in the playoff is not something I want to see. If it's not us in there, let the rest of the conference get shut out, too.
August 31st, 2014 at 7:26 PM ^
Totally agree. Eff State, Ohio and Penn State most.
August 31st, 2014 at 8:37 PM ^
Misread. Carry on.
August 31st, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^
Yeah it's a definite possibility, which is why I would never bet on this game.
That said, I think the media narrative that Oregon struggles with "physical" defenses is way overblown. LSU had 4 NFL players on their D line that year. Nobody ran against them. In the NGC, Auburn got torched through the air after selling out to stop the run and gave up 450 yards of offense. Oregon is also 2-2 in their last 4 against Stanford. Even against OSU in 2009 they managed 5.4 YPC. Playing a defensive front less talented than all of these teams, The Ducks should be able to put up points, especially against an MSU team that doesn't have the OL to play ball control.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:18 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:38 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 4:32 PM ^
"especially in that stadium where crazy, stupid and flukey things"
August 31st, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
Spoken like a true Wolverine historian.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^
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August 31st, 2014 at 4:35 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 4:13 PM ^
this attitude.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 4:51 PM ^
Unless, youre teasing across both 3 and 7, its usually not worth it.
Teaser sides have to each hit about 72% or more to be profitable. .72 X .72 = .5184, which should be around break even point if standard vig.
If you think plus 11 is a good bet, take that. But moving from 11 to 17 or 17.5 doesnt shift your probability of winning that leg of the bet by enough to be worth it.
In general, I would only tease in lower scoring games with spreads in single digits.
just my opinion, though. Have fun betting a safe amount.
August 31st, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
so we are the favorite and there ranked while we aren't, vegas going with recent history.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
I would say that our game will be closer than 5.5 now that we can run the ball out of the RB position.
August 31st, 2014 at 4:39 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:24 PM ^
MSU +11? Yeesh I don't know about that. A lot of people are putting stock in how similar Stanford and MSU are, which may be true, but I just don't think that MSU will win that comfortably, even if they do win. Mariota will really test MSU's secondary, which will undoubtedly take a step back after last year.
For ND, I'll take Michigan, but the under. Has this series done anything lately to prove that one team is going to win comfortably over the other? No. Expect chaos, mayhem, and utter insanity for this last one, like always.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^
MSU is +11, not -11. They are favored to lose. Jesus don't you people know anything about throwing away money?
August 31st, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^
Um, if someone is apart of the conversation, they aren't a part of it...
August 31st, 2014 at 4:50 PM ^
Some people need to be apart from the conversation.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
If you are, what was your reaction when you saw app state +33 this weekend?
August 31st, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^
have not been kind to the favorites in the UM - ND series, if memory serves.
No big deal to be an underdog in South Bend.
That noise canyon in Eugene is a different story.
August 31st, 2014 at 3:29 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:30 PM ^
Team Rankings' model is a bit more aggressive when it comes to the point differential as they give Michigan a 23.6% win probability (based on 2013 statistics, mind you) and a likely score based on simulations of 30-20.
The link to the comparative stats that they use, also 2013 stats, is here - LINK.
August 31st, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^
August 31st, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^
I would like MSU much more if they were playing at home, but Eugene is a different story. That being said, I would not be surprised if they won. Their defense will be able to stop Oregon like physical defense always do. Just matter of how much.