The 12 team playoff - How it might have looked this season - thoughts and conversation.

Submitted by Amazinblu on January 22nd, 2024 at 1:26 PM

As we all know - the CFP format expands to a twelve (12) team format next season.   My view has been an 8 team structure would have been preferable - however, my view doesn't mean anything - and, the system is - as it is.   In the 12 team format - a few teams that played in their CCG and lost - would be seeded "5 through 12" for the CFP.  In this scenario - two CCG losers made it in.   And, no team reached the 12 team CFP with more than two losses.

So, what would a twelve team format looked like this season?   I viewed the CFP rankings after the CCG weekend - and, came up with the following.   Because of the G5 presense (Liberty, this season) - the team that was "left out" was Oklahoma which was ranked 12th. 

By conference - the participation would have been as follows.  I think the conference seeding should be such that two conference teams don't meet each other until "as late" in the CFP schedule as possible.  So - you could have an "all B1G" or "all SEC" final based on which teams win.

  • G5 - one team - Liberty
  • ACC - one team - FSU
  • Big 12 - one team - Texas
  • Pac 12 - two teams - Washington and Oregon
  • B1G - three teams - Michigan, OSU, and Penn State
  • SEC - four teams - Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Mizzou

IMO - the P5 CCGs are essentially Week 0 of the CFP.  Two conferences - the Pac 12 and SEC would place both teams in.

  • Oregon vs Washington - both in the CFP
  • Georgia vs Bama - both in the CFP
  • Louisville vs FSU - FSU in the CFP
  • Texas vs Oklahoma State - Texas in the CFP
  • Michigan vs Iowa - Michigan in the CFP

In week one of the CFP - on campus games - seeds 5 through 12

  • Liberty (12) at FSU (5)
  • Penn State (11) at Georgia (6)
  • Ole Miss (10) at Ohio State (7)
  • Mizzou (9) at Oregon (8)

Week two - the quarterfinals - at major bowl sites - all P5 conferences are represented.  And - each "half" of the bracket has teams from four different P5 conferences.

  • Michigan (1) vs Oregon (8)
  • Bama (4) vs FSU (5)
  • Washington (2) vs Ohio State (7)
  • Texas (3) vs Georgia (6)

Week three - the semifinals: again, four different P5 conferences are represented.

  • Michigan (1) vs Bama (4)
  • Washington (2) vs Texas (3)

And, week four - the final

  • Michigan (1) vs Washington (2)

 

I will just enjoy the "NC hangover" for about seven more months - and, really get focused on the '24 season in mid August when tailgate planning for the opener begins.

What do you think of the 12 team format?   Are there things you're hoping the CFP Selection Committee will - or won't - do?   If so, what are they?

Enjoy being a fan of the National Championship team.   Go Blue!

rice4114

January 22nd, 2024 at 3:11 PM ^

We've been playing SEC teams in SEC footprints for years. Even a 25% chance a Big ten team hosts is still a HUUUGE bump from Texas or Bama in the Sugar. All these SEC teams have feasted on quasi-home games for years. One bowl game where we have the crowd advantage and suddenly we are beating Bama. Huh curious. Give me college stadiums all day long. NFL lite corporate settings are boring. 

rice4114

January 22nd, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^

Its going to happen you are right but someone is going to have to prove it on the field. Give me that over Finebaum telling all the SEC slaps who is better. If #9-#12 are so terrible great prove it. Ill enjoy the new matchups the SEC has been insulating themselves from for decades. 

BornInA2

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:08 PM ^

A longer season is going to mean more injuries. The buffoonery with the selection committee, where they dropped FSU after winning because of injuries they already had when they had been ranked 4, is going to have to get fixed.

I really don't think the committee should be ranking anyone based on their opinions of what might happen in the future. "Existing body of work by the team this season" is the only rational metric.

Amazinblu

January 22nd, 2024 at 3:02 PM ^

“this season”… is a phrase I strongly agree with.  There was so much talk about Georgia over the past three years.   I respect the Georgia teams over the past three seasons - but, their “among the all time best defenses” on the ‘21 season - has absolutely no bearing on their team this year.

But, I’m only a fan - not Finebaum, a CFP member, or another talking head.

goblu330

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:25 PM ^

Despite the revenue loss, I think they will end up doing it for a couple of reasons.  First, I don't think Playoff teams will seriously compete in those games anymore.  If they are securely in, they won't dress any players of serious value.  Second, I just think fans will stop going.  Even very affluent fans have a limited amount of money they can spend on sporting events.  With the potential of 3-4 playoff games, fans are not going to go to Indy or Atlanta to watch a game where teams are just trying not to get hurt.  You will end up with Stub Hub $1 tickets and a 3/4 full stadium.

People generally think it is impossible but I actually think conference championship games are on their way out.  I think they will resurface in some form after realignment is complete in a form similar to AFC and NFC title games. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:09 PM ^

Conference Championship Games will really, now, often become a meaningless game. I know every now and then an Iowa-type could play themselves into the playoff with a win over a Michigan/OSU. But that notion most likely goes away as conference divisions are likely to get more balanced.

I wish the CGs were done away with  with the inclusion of 8 more teams to the playoff.

lhglrkwg

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:21 PM ^

I wonder if they might die out. Like you said, they're becoming pointless and for an aspiring playoff team thats a 4th neutral site game to deal with. As teams get out to playing 16 or 17 games, I think there will start to be open questions about why we need a conference title game. That makes figuring out the conference champion tough, but I think teams would rather deal with complicated rule than a fairly pointless title game

lhglrkwg

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:20 PM ^

Still dumb that the quarters are at bowl sites. Shouldnt be asking fans to travel to three different major games in consecutive weeks.

Games should be homesites through and including the semis and then the title game should always be at the Rose Bowl. But then some bowl execs wouldnt make money so we cant have that

goblu330

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:29 PM ^

In my opinion, this is all still very much a work in progress.  I still think in the medium term it will look quite different.  My guess is that non-conference games will be all but eliminated except for maybe one that will look a lot like an NFL preseason game against some Baby Seal, and more early round Playoff games will be played at home sites once they figure out that they cannot get fans to travel all over the country to neutral sites three times in four weeks during Christmas. 

I also think you could see the big bowl games become modified to become the conference championship games.  (Rose - BIG, Orange - ACC, Cotton - Big 12, Peach/Sugar - SEC).  These games would likely see starters opt out to prepare for the Playoff.  Then Playoff games return to the higher seed stadium until the NCG.   

Everybody is really excited about the expanded Playoff, as am I.  But let's be honest here.  As of right now the format makes precisely zero sense and is going to have to be modified.  I don't know how it will look but it isn't going to look like this.

WrestlingCoach

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:29 PM ^

Given the recent OSU transfers and retention, I have a hard time seeing them get through the season and then this gauntlet with solid game plans and execution week in and week out. This new playoff format is going to require scheming up great game plans in a week's notice and also really good in game coaching/adjustments to win the playoffs week in and week out. it will be difficult for anyone, I just wonder if all the money they are spending is really going to pay off. Next year's post season will be fascinating.

ChuckieWoodson

January 22nd, 2024 at 2:46 PM ^

Generally glad it's a 12 team playoff.  So tired of hearing about teams that think they should've been in it, or teams like Auburn or UCF (lol) that go undefeated and think they should have been in it.  

Also, appreciate the work you put into the post but for me personally, just don't care.  We won. Everyone else can suck it and OSU can spend 5B dollars hiring the best mercenaries money can buy.  It may or may not pay off and I hope it doesn't.

DiploMan

January 22nd, 2024 at 3:30 PM ^

PSU, Oregon, Mississippi, and Missouri, each with 2 conference losses, had no right to a playoff opportunity. 
 

Just imagine if Penn State would’ve somehow won the whole thing.  Would anyone really think the new playoff format had produced a deserving champion?

NittanyFan

January 22nd, 2024 at 3:57 PM ^

Any team that wins in a 12-team bracket, they'll be viewed as deserving champions.  They will have won a number of big games in the tournament.

The #4 seed won the CFP 2 times in 10 years --- one of those teams didn't even win the division in their conference --- but nobody even slightly considers them as non-deserving.

umfan83

January 22nd, 2024 at 4:37 PM ^

For one I am thrilled that Michigan was able to win a title before expanding to the 12 team format.  Granted, Michigan was simply the best team this year and they proved it but adding 1-2 extra rounds of playoffs lessens the chances that the best team ultimately wins.

BrownJuggernaut

January 22nd, 2024 at 5:13 PM ^

I worry about the expanded playoff as it is definitely more of a money grab than anything else. I know we have NIL set up but we don't have a solid system to compensate the players and we have a money grab before us that means more wear and tear on the players. The longer season is going to mean that teams will have to go easier on players during the season (like Michigan did for much of this season) or that guys will be more prone to injuries later in the season and might be missing due to injury (e.g. Jordan Travis). 

We as Michigan fans root for the program, but also we root for Zak Zinter, Blake Corum, guys who give it their all but have missed chances to show out in the playoffs due to injury (Blake was lucky to be able to come back and show out). These programs stand on the backs of these guys, we need a better system for them.

Who's to say that we don't see another FSU situation play out. A team with plenty of stars but injuries to some key players might see some opt outs if they're playing a healthy, strong opponent. Why should those guys risk injury in a game they're likely to use? Just because it's the playoff? I think we're going to see the product dilute a bit. I am not saying that I'm complaining about more college football. I think it'll be exciting to watch. I just don't know if it will be all we want it to be.

rdonahue87

January 22nd, 2024 at 7:37 PM ^

I'm looking forward to the new playoff because I feel like in my lifetime we have finished #5-12 reasonably often but other than 1997 and the last 3 years finishing in the top 4 has not happened at all.

 

I'm glad the playoff didn't happen that way this year. While I obviously think we're the best team in the country, we don't win 100% of games against any playoff team. Even if we beat team X 99% of the time, there's still that every 100 games. Georgia was down this year so we should beat them, but it sure as hell isn't a 100% chance and as things stand, there's a 100% chance we're 2023 National Champions :)

A Lot of Milk

January 22nd, 2024 at 8:23 PM ^

I'm a natural pessimist, but I feel like 12 teams is going to be much less satisfying than any other era. The regular season is almost meaningless as long as you don't play a schedule that will saddle you with more than two losses, which is the norm for every college powerhouse anyway. Instead, it feels like we're giving more mulligans to super teams stacked with talent. I expect we're going to a see lot more 2 loss Alabama and Georgia champions than we will see undefeated or one loss Michigans and Oregons. Continued realignment will force change quickly anyway

TheBlueAbides

January 23rd, 2024 at 11:13 AM ^

I’m excited for the expansion and happy as hell Michigan got one before things get even harder. In my opinion the most annoying thing about college football has always been the talk of “UGa would have beat M this year!” Expansion provides opportunity and I hope it quiets that talk down once people realize that there are realistically 6-10 teams that could win these top games. Alabama almost did and could have beat us, Ohio state could have beat us, , hell Penn state had a chance. They didnt, but on an alternate weekend they could have. How often does the overall 1 seed win the entire dance in March madness? This should help spread the parody to 10 teams instead of 4.