2022/23 Basketball vs 2021/22 basketball at this point- No need to panic!
Michigan is currently 10-7 and on the wrong side of the tournament bubble but is it time to panic?
I don't think so. The team and lineups are improving and I think we are seeing the challenge of adding 4 new starters and 3 out of 4 new bench players.
Last year at this point U of M was 10-7 after defeating Northwestern, didn't have a top win and had lost to Minnesota and Central Florida. Last year Michigan made the Sweet 16
Positives versus last year's team at this point.
This team has more upside than the team last year due to better shooting. Bufkin is shooting 34%, Dug 32%, and Joey Baker 48%!
Tarris Reed has ability to be as effective as Diabate. Reed's block rate is twice as high as Diabate's. More importantly he seems to have better chemistry with Hunter Dickinson or maybe the better outside shooting is allowing 2 bigs to be much more effective.
I think we need to see Tarris Reed's minutes increase and more time playing both bigs.
I see more improvement this year from beginning of the season and I think the arc we saw in 2021-22 bodes well for what we will see from this year's team in terms of improvement.
Lastly- did you know that there are now 3236 operation Starlight satellites?
January 16th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Panicking? Who's panicking? I'm not panicking. Are you panicking?
I agree with what you're saying. We're seeing a young team grow up before our eyes. Hunter is getting doubled and tripled quite a bit now. The key to the season so far is if the kick-out pass results in enough made buckets.
January 16th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^
Review the last game thread, panic, hell yes, down right roast the team and coaches at the stake.
The beatdown has been going on at mid season for several years now, then suddenly, the team puts it together when it counts 👏
January 16th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^
This fan base is notorious for writing off the basketball team.... This is an annual occurrence, dating back to the Coach B days. Through January and early Feb. the team consistently improved, hitting their stride around big 10 tourny time and then making a run in March.
Very young roster, they'll improve and finish the season strong, at least that's what typically happens.
GO BLUE
January 16th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
1) I don't think writing off teams is a phenomena limited to bball. Ever read a football game thread if Michigan has a bad first half in football?
2) I also don't think it is a fan base wide thing. It is a smaller, but vocal, group that gets put forward as representative of the larger fan base.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
I am panicked and have been... Why? Cause I do not think we are a very well coached team at this point in time. Some of that may be youth. Having said that Howard needs credit for Bufkin's improvement which is very visible at this point in the season. He has come a long ways, Howard needs credit for a true freshmen holding down PG duties admirably with low turnover rate. He needs criticism for our PG roster and overall roster management in the last year. Maybe Frankie and the Shannon things are out of his control leading to some of these struggles. We have been renting PG's for years and in a game where guard play wins and especially wins in the post season we need more in that area. I thought this team was cooked after the Iowa meltdown. Really thought that was the start to a deep slide but credit needs given where its due. They came back and battled especially Bufkin after a horrible finish in that game which can rattle a young guard. They are slowly getting me to nibble on the hook again....
January 16th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
Jett Howard is at 40.2% from 3 after a blistering 7-13 against Iowa and 4/6 against Northwestern
January 16th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
It will be very interesting to see how Dug improves this year. Last year Devante Jones really started playing well towards the end of big ten play and that helped us get over the hump. Dug will almost certainly improve over his career, but in order for Michigan to make the jump into a sweet 16 contender they are going to need consistent improvement from Dug.
January 16th, 2023 at 7:18 PM ^
Yet it took Jones getting hurt for the pg that actually got the team to the sweet 16 to get big minutes.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:17 PM ^
Neither the Minnesota loss nor the UCF loss were as bad as the CMU loss. Both of them finished last year around 100th or so on kenpom while CMU is currently about 280th. Had last year’s team had that bad of a loss on its resume, they would have at least been in a play-in game if not out of the tourney altogether.
Right now, Michigan isn’t even one of the first 8 out on Lunardi’s bracket. Kentucky is his 7th team out. Michigan needs to win a bunch of games to just get on the bubble.
January 16th, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^
When you mention Lunardi, I'm almost positive we ,"will" make the tournament. Because his a$$ is clueless when it comes to basketball. He changes more than the student section at the Breslin. Lunardi... Hilarious
January 16th, 2023 at 6:36 PM ^
Michigan’s also not listed anywhere on Bracket Matrix.
January 17th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
I hope you are right and appreciate your optimism. But Michigan is about a 2 game winning streak from even getting itself on the bubble let alone the right side of it. Lunardi's projection is reasonable.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
I love the freshman class they are exceeding my expectations as far as impact on the game. The wins will come i know they will this next 10 game stretch is key. The only issue is our best non-conference win is pitt and we have a loss to central that is worse than what we had last season and could leave us out of the dance
January 16th, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
I think beating Purdue at home could be a huge boost for us come March Madness time. Completely agree with points above.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
Oh, sure, I go and clear the shelves at Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork to make sure that I'm ready for the rest of the basketball season and NOW you tell me that I DON'T need to panic?
T'anks for nuttin'.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
Hunter looks complacent. Williams looks disinterested. Baker and Cheddar need more minutes. They need to sort out their crunch time execution.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
don't tell me what to do. I am going pull panic mode until selection sunday.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
Without going back and verifying this, I also feel our scores last year were way more lopsided than they have been this year. Although the team has not looked that great so far this year, we have had several very close losses. If this continues to happen, then we are obviously going to have a subpar year, but I believe our team is improving and will turn a lot of the close losses that happened early in the season to wins in the 2nd half of the season. Or this is all just wishful thinking. I wise man once said "no man knows the future." Go Blue!
January 16th, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^
I agree it's not time to panic but for me it's because me expectations going into this season weren't all that high to start with. Losing two starters to the NBA and the transfer portal changed the dynamic of this team dramatically before the season even started and then we promptly went out and lost our starting PG for the season to injury making a thin position even thinner. I will say I've been dissapointed in Hunter's effort in some games but I dont know if that's due to physical issues he's dealing with or something else.
Looking at the remaining schedule I have us going 18-13 overall, 12-8 in B1G, heading into B1G tourny meaning we're going to need at least one, maybe two wins to be on the right side of the bubble on selection Sunday. Losing the Iowa, CMU and Virginia game are killers but that's the way she goes.
January 16th, 2023 at 6:26 PM ^
Let’s hope we go 9-5 in the remaining games because I think that’s what it’s going to take due to the missteps earlier this season. The CMU loss does hurt a lot but were the team go 19-12 with a win over Purdue that probably is enough barring an opening round loss in the BTT. Beat Maryland.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^
If Jett wants to be an NBA lottery pick, be needs to learn to go left. He's horribly predictable.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
Marvin Bagley was the #2 overall pick (and most people applauded the pick at the time) in a loaded draft who basically didn't know he could use his right hand or even go right.
That being said, Jett needs to do what you said.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
Right. In not saying it's not possible. But they hedge him hard and he tends to still insist on going right.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:40 PM ^
You know nothing about basketball!!!
January 16th, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Shit, I hope the team I coach doesn't find out. But as always, be a bitch instead of having a conversation. It's the Internet way
January 16th, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
I'll simply say this. He's a lottery pick whether you,"bitch or not!" I know lots of coaches that draw up pls
January 16th, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
Plays that haven't ever played. Just because you're a coach don't mean $@@!
January 16th, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
Cool. Good chat.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
Nice try but these two teams are totally different and it’s simply not a good comparison. This years roster is badly flawed and it would take a miracle to make the tourney at this point.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
Yes, there's no need to panic.
If fans on this site had their way, we would have fired Coach Beilein and Harbaugh before their most successful years. We most likely wouldn't have had the recent Final Four and college football playoff appearances.
Have a little patience with both this young team and Coach Howard.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Rutroh don't use the word patience or you'll get attacked. Plus trust me you can read the entries in this post and you'll be able to,"see" all of the positive posters. The ones who truly love,"JUON" yeah I know and of course all of the non-nba players that he constructed this team with.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
They're growing as a team, and it's fun to watch.
Next step: win the games that are decided by a few points.
January 16th, 2023 at 10:45 PM ^
Exactly. The stat graphic I think I remember from the last game: 2-7 in games decided by 4 points or less..
January 16th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
I believe their tough schedule saved them last year. They don’t have that this year
January 16th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
Not even panicking. More just resignation that this team is not good and the roster is poorly constructed due to internal and external factors. Barring a great run over the next 6 weeks, I don't think the big dance is in the future at this point, so I am just hoping for the NIT.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
Last year's team followed a similar trajectory to this point but just barely made the tournament, and also didn't have a loss to a bad MAC team to anchor the resume. Maybe it's not time to panic at the state of the program, but tournament hopes are still very much on life support
January 16th, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
If we do make it, we're going to be a miserable draw for some team poor dam that is expecting to play a real 12 seed.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
just need to go 12-8 in big ten play to have a realistic chance. i don't see that happening. unfortunately, they blew too many close games they could have easily won. flip a couple of those and they would be well above the bubble line right now.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^
FIRE BAKICH!!!
January 16th, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
Last year we beat San Diego State who was a top 25ish team on Kenpom most of the year and we ourselves were ranked in the 30s even with the losses. We also didn't have a crippling loss like CMU on the resume. We are in a much worse position now then we were then and we were bubble team who had to finish middle of the pack in the conference.
This year the conference is definitely worse than last year, so there are probably more teams that will toe the line between Q1 and Q2 throughout the year, so finishing with a winning record in the conference is important to even have a shot. I don't think you can argue that this team is in the same spot as last year's team, when they're definitely in a much bigger hole at this point.
Will the team improve? I think so, I think Kobe and Dug will get better and that will help, but Michigan will remain a mediocre team just like how last year you could tell they were overall average at this point and stayed average the rest of the year.
January 16th, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^
While they did make the sweet sixteen last year they got probably the best draw to do so of all the double digit seeds.
January 16th, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
I agree with your analysis but I would suggest dropping the non-conference games and look at the 3 point % you highlighted over the 6 conference season games:
Dug 43%!! Bufkin 35% and Joey Baker 43%.....plus, Hunder Dickinson 43%, Jett 44%
Last year's team had Twill at 41% as the lone player above 40 over the conference season.
Now, we just need to get a therapist to hypnotize Hunter and convince him opposing team is wearing Maryland uniforms before each game.
January 16th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
you must be new here.
January 16th, 2023 at 6:14 PM ^
Hilarious
January 16th, 2023 at 6:29 PM ^
There are a few reasons I still have concerns:
1) The Big Ten is better than last year. The depth of quality teams extends to everyone except Minnesota and Nebraska. And Minnesota ended up going to OSU and winning last week. There are no gimmes the rest of the way.
2) That Quad 4 loss to CMU - coupled with no Quad 1 wins at the moment is a resume killer. I believe we are currently the 10th ranked Big Ten team on Kenpom and 50 overall. I don’t think we were ever this low last year.
3) 6-5 non conference record means we probably need 12 conference wins plus a win in the conference tourney. That would get us to 19-14 and squarely on the bubble.
4) Roster construction. We had 3 true guards and one is now out for the season. If anything happens to Bufkin or Dug, the season is over.
5) Our only true road win is over Minnesota. They are the #175 team on Kenpom last I checked, worst in the Big Ten. Blew our shot at a huge road win over Iowa last week. Need to pick up at least one more on the road and win all of our home games just to get to the 19-14 mark I mentioned above.
We’ve dug ourselves a HUGE hole and squandered opportunities for signature wins (could have beat Kentucky or UNC, and should have beaten Virginia). The reasons for optimism:
1) The youngsters are improving. Many say we are poorly coached, but I see huge improvements from the freshmen, particularly Dug and Tarris. Having Tarris develop is huge because he has the quickness to defend pick-and-rolls that Hunter just can’t. And Tarris can handle switches to smaller, quicker guards much better.
2) Bufkin. To me, he’s our best overall player. He may not shoot like Jett when Jett is on, but he is a menace defensively (hands in passing lanes) and he has an advantage being a lefty when he gets by people for bankers off the glass, defenders always seem surprised he’s shooting with his left hand.
3) Hunter. This is a make or break one. He hasn’t exactly been terrible, but he also hasn’t been great. I think there’s more there and I think going with the Twin Tower look could unlock his game for the rest of the season.
4) Tschetter. Guy is a bull in a China shop. 4 fouls in just 10 minutes yesterday. Obviously he can’t be on the floor long if he’s fouling like that - and his offensive game is limited right now - but he’s a hustle magnet and seems to give the team a spark when he goes in there.
January 16th, 2023 at 7:15 PM ^
1 is not true. Big 10 is really down this year
January 16th, 2023 at 10:57 PM ^
Hunter has been AWFUL this year. At times it looks like he’s never caught a ball before in his life. There will be 2-3 possessions a game he flashes old hunter. The rest of the game he’s talking trash while throwing up bricks and fumbling the ball out of bounds.
January 16th, 2023 at 11:32 PM ^
The B1G is definitely worse this year. There are more meh teams than last year so the bottom of the conference is not as bad, but the middle isn't very good. Outside of Purdue and probably Rutgers, all the teams are mediocre. Illinois (clearly has locker room issues so they may explode at any moment) and Iowa are ok, OSU is falling apart at the moment, Indiana has a bunch of injuries and also was just fine before, Wisconsin is at best fine and the rest is just a blob of ok teams to not good teams.