IA podcast gives 5 reasons IA can beat UM
1. Revenge 2. Kinnick is where top-5 teams go to die 3. 1st road game for UM and more importantly JJ 4. Harbaugh's UM is good match up style-wise 5. If IA doesn't win, then at least they'll cover. So, I guess it should have been billed as 4 reasons why IA will win and 5 as to why they'll cover.
1 & 2 are touchy-feely. #3 is pretty JJ being young dependent (one said Cade may be the better option if not hurt "for this game"). #4 seems to forget Harbaugh was coaching the BTCG last year. His buddy can't really see it. Supposedly, the one dude thinks Brian Ferentz has really made some good adjustments lately. He also took hope from the MD game and what that O did. How can he compare IA O & MD's? What MD did to UM's D is irrelevant to this Saturday.
September 28th, 2022 at 2:59 PM ^
I do think Iowa has made some improvements on offense. With that being said, the offense will not be the reason they beat Michigan. Iowa's defense is, IMO, top 2 best defenses in the B1G.
If Iowa's defense can force turnovers and either return them for points or give the offense great field position, then I can see Iowa pulling off a very close game upset. Otherwise, I still like Michigan to win and cover -10.5.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^
"Improvements." Hard to do worse or even stay the same.
Same probably goes for JJ. I think we saw the floor already, and it would be foolhardy for opponents to keep expecting to see it.
As for the under, it depends on if we open it up. If we're content to grind it out and do a fair amount of punting against a team that can hardly move the ball. And then if they break one at some point. We could do as badly as 20–10.
But that too feels like a floor-score...a pessimistic outlook from Punt-Counterpunt that you have to talk yourself into.
September 28th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
Hard to do worse or even stay the same.
Same probably goes for JJ
While JJ was guilty of some.. questionable… reads and decisions, I think it’s pretty important to note his 69% completion percentage at 8.5 YPA and the fact that he had one (1) incompletion on pass attempts under 20 yards. He was very effective and efficient as a passer and ultimately didn’t turn the ball over.
JJ has incredible talent but we also shouldn’t take his near perfect start to the season for granted. It is certainly not hard to do worse than he did against Maryland. I’d grade JJ’s game against Maryland as “pretty good” and it’s not out of the question that he has a less than “pretty good” game at some point.
September 28th, 2022 at 6:17 PM ^
Honestly, I'm glad JJ made those goofs last time when it was unlikely to cost them the game. He has a week to review the plays with the coaches and make corrections. Perfect learning moment to fix the problems and mature.
We all knew a game like that was coming, inevitable for young QBs, so hopefully that's out of his system for a while, can take lessons learned and pry apart the weaknesses of the IA defense, just like they did last December.
September 28th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^
Hey, not for lack of trying. JJ didn’t turn the ball over with help from teammates, refs, and the sideline.
here’s hoping he’s much better this week!
September 29th, 2022 at 7:51 AM ^
How did the refs help JJ not turn the ball over?
September 28th, 2022 at 8:11 PM ^
And let’s not forget when we needed a big time throw on 3rd and long up only 5, JJ hit Bell on the money. Missing a little long on deep throws is fixable, and something we’ve already seen JJ be able to do.
Just like last years B1G Championship Game, if we can get up 2 scores, the game is ours. 23-6 final
September 28th, 2022 at 5:48 PM ^
I like your enthusiasm and I hope you are right, but I am not quite sure why we would be expecting to see this season's JJ QB floor against the nation's 98th rated D (Maryland). As opposed to Iowa, OSU, PSU, etc. . . .
September 28th, 2022 at 9:58 PM ^
OSU's defense is suspect.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:00 PM ^
With all due respect to Spencer Petras, he and Taulia Tagovailoa are... very different quarterbacks.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:01 PM ^
It's an Iowa podcast giving their fans some reasons to hope. If I were an Iowa fan I would pin my hopes on Michigan making mistakes and the Hawkeyes taking advantage. Otherwise I honestly don't see how that offense scores enough to win.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:25 PM ^
Absolutely. I'm just a UM fan pointing out the flimsiness of that hope while also whistling a little past the Kinnick graveyard.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:26 PM ^
How many safeties do you think it will take?
September 28th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
Seven safeties and six field goals.
September 28th, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
And a Partridge in a pear tree.
(but he's in the sec now, so Iowa is out of luck)
September 28th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
Iowa will have to go +2 in turnovers to win. It’s the only way and it’s not impossible.
September 28th, 2022 at 7:10 PM ^
I just hope JJ is more careful. Fumbles can really hurt. And Iowa hits harder than Maryland. But I'm sure the coaches have been talking to McCarthy about these things.
September 28th, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
Exactly this. Iowa jumps on a few ill-timed fumbles and maybe moving the ball a leeetle bit more than we expect and this becomes an exasperating game.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^
Reason 1 should be Kinnick, reasons 2-5 should have been defense
September 28th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
Reason 3 absolutely should've been an ability to pin deep with their punt.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^
In 2016 at Kinnick, it felt like Harbaugh was trying to out-Iowa Iowa. That is the only thing that worries me with coaching. Michigan's offense needs to be Michigan, and not try to prove they are better than Iowa at what they do.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
Eh, we took plenty of deep shots, which were wide open. If Speight hit any one of them we win. I mean obviously it wasn't great, but that was much more a game I felt we lost on execution rather than where we simply beat our heads against a wall repeatedly (something like 27 for 27 or the like)...
September 28th, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^
Random deep shots are random. Those all felt like a hope at something big, rather than an integrated part of the offense for that game. The offense, as a whole, felt stagnated and tightened down. The running game was locked on slamming into an 8-man box and there was no short passing game to open it up. We definitely played Iowa's game in that one.
I do think, though, that JH has evolved from that. The B1GCG was trending in that direction until he pinched his nose and called up a trick play. From that point, Iowa didn't know what was coming at them and it was a different game...
September 28th, 2022 at 3:28 PM ^
seriously, we don't need to vary a whole lot from the BTCG script. not saying exact repeat, but i have a hard time believing that what worked extraordinarily well in december won't at least get us some decent yards and points in october.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
Yeah, that first paragraph is what I mean, well said. If this game comes down to whether JJ can put it on the money on two second half deep routes than we are playing Iowa's game.
September 28th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
I say go 5-wide thee whole game. There's absolutely NO way that Iowa can stop us if we play basketball on grass.
September 28th, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
I would expect the opposite somewhat: protect the QB with 7-man protections. The last thing Michigan wants is a banged up and jittery JJ. Enough play-action passes to keep them honest and help the running game.
September 28th, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
I think they tried deep throws that did not connect. I expect UM to try different things and not just run it against the stacked box.
September 28th, 2022 at 6:32 PM ^
That's what gave me hope in Corum's last TD against MD, where the play was designed to run into a stacked box that turned into a mass of bodies. He said "screw that" and bounced it outside for a TD.
So I have a bit of hope that if Harbaugh can't help himself and they run off-tackle and dive plays into the box, that Corum will find the daylight outside. Most of his runs against MD were off the edge, interesting to see if IA's linebackers can keep up with him.
September 28th, 2022 at 7:37 PM ^
Speight overthrew multiple deep balls for tds . He hits one of those and we win. I know I was there
September 28th, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
This game comes down to 1 thing. Which offense will Michigan go with. Maryland game plan and this is a tight battle. A cohesive game plan with players in space and Michigan wins by 2 tds
September 28th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
I believe turnovers will be the most important factor in the game. Second would be starting field position.
September 28th, 2022 at 4:00 PM ^
Kirk Ferentz peeks our from under a rather large rock.
September 29th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
A Google search reveals that "Petras" is an ancient Minoan town currently the site of an archeological dig. "Petras" is clearly (IMHO) related to πέτρα (petra), the Greek word for "rock," which also seems to describle Petras's QB mobility.
September 28th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
That is kind of how I have been feeling. If Michigan's offense is as careless with the ball as they were against Maryland, they could let Iowa in the game. Iowa beat Rutgers with 2 defensive TDs. Iowa will try to play conservative as long as they are leading or the game is close.
September 28th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
If Iowa does what MD did on defense - a multitude of guys in zone - then maybe Michigan approaches Iowa the same way the did for MD.
September 28th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
iowa will play a ton of zone, per usual. they understand their scheme really well and typically have well coached, active safeties.
will jj trust his eyes and his guys and throw with anticipation? corum, bell, wilson, those dudes will make plays if the OL and QB allow it.
another factor in most bigger games - can michigan run in the red zone?
September 28th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^
This game will be a test for sure, but their supposed "offensive improvement" is delusional at best. There were some things that looked better against Rutger, but also...Rutger. I see this game as Michigan Offense ≤ Iowa Defense, Michigan Defense > Iowa Offense, Michigan ST = Iowa ST. There were some plays that Rutger had that showed Iowa's D can be had. Should be a good one!
September 28th, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
I mean I am a little bit worried UM might go too conservative and try to manball it. Recipe to get stonewalled against this stout Iowa defense. Not saying UM needs to go air raid or anything but they need to trust JJ to take some chances in this game in order to make it a more comfortable margin. Riley Moss is a really good CB but athletically I don't think Iowa can match up with UM's athletes on the perimeter past that. Iowa's front is definitely good enough to take away UM's run game if they aren't balanced enough. Though it is a bit of of catch 22 because it feels like UM mistakes might be the only thing that could give Iowa enough points to actually win but honestly I am for whatever gameplan gives me the best chance to avoid a close game in that building. Iowa might find some offensive voodoo if you allow them to stay close.
September 28th, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^
Essentially my thoughts on this game. There is no way Iowa's D can match the athleticism of M's offensive skill players. Utilize them early and often in the gameplan and it's VERY likely the game is basically over reasonably early.
BUT doing that brings in more of a chance for the kind of game-changing plays that allowed Iowa to beat Rutgers.
The hyper-conservative gameplan, OTOH, just ensures a nail-biter the whole way which STILL means that a game-changing play (less likely, but Iowa may only need one) turns the game in Iowa's favor.
Use the talent. Use the athleticism. M knows they can beat this team by multiple TDs. Unfortunately, I am far from certain they will do this on Saturday.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
Harbaugh's Michigan team is a good style match for Iowa.
WTFH????
Umm, maybe if Harbaugh turtles up the offense and shuts it all down, like he somewhat did in 2016, there's a chance to squint and maybe see something like that. Otherwise, no.
Harbaugh does things offensively that the Ferentz's couldn't possibly conceive of, and does them regularly. Michigan now has a modern offense, capable of scoring at any time, from anywhere on the field. They even actively look for big plays while they are actively exploiting holes in the defense. This offense does not require the defense to have a good game. Iowa... Iowa still runs a 1990's version of a controlled, safe offense that requires the defense to be outstanding.
Defensively, Michigan is running a modern NFL scheme designed to create pressure from everywhere and stop long drives. Iowa's offense doesn't stand a chance of driving the field in this game. Iowa's defense is a solid unit, easily a top 10 unit nationally. But it excels at positional play around a cover-2 zone. Harbaugh can/has/will scheme holes open, so long as JJ can read it and find them.
This Iowa football team - like all Iowa teams I can remember back to the mid-70's - versions itself after 20 year old schemes and relies on its opponent to kill itself. Don't kill yourself.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
F yeah!
As for killing yourself, H no.
That's W I think.
T end.
September 28th, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
Agree, VA Blue with one addition to the ancient Iowa playbook: first Fry, now Ferentz, draw up trick plays to pull out against tougher opponents. I'll bet a quarter there's a gadget play of some kind Saturday. If it works, the Iowa hope is to win a sludge fart game 10-7.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^
6. Unleash the petrascat offense.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:39 PM ^
Petra Scat??
September 29th, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
It's some new kind of porn...I'm told.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:24 PM ^
As far as road games go, we only have one that’s tougher on the schedule.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
Lets look at it this way.... Iowa's Defense is ranked in the top 10 of all NCAA teams, we are two spots behind them. Iowa's offense is dead last and ours is in the top 20.
They are at home, they have a chip on their shoulder from the B10 Championship beatdown and starting the season off terribly..... We have a better, more complete team.
We win by two scores.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
Weird seeing Iowa called IA. I know it's the state abbreviation, it's just not something as a sports fan I associate with Iowa.
September 28th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
When I mail something, I occasionally worry that writing out the full state name—out of respect—that young postal workers will have to look up the 2-letter abbreviation.