#10 Penn State at #17 Iowa - Saturday Night
Penn State plays at Iowa on the ESPN Saturday night game. Should be a really fun and interesting game to watch, especially for Michigan fans, given we just played Iowa and are headed to Happy Valley next week. How Iowa handles Penn State may be a solid benchmark on the strength of the Michigan defense, and perhaps even how far our offense needs to come, as compared to Penn State.
In watching the game – assume the following four scenarios (know there could be several permutations).
A) Penn State beats Iowa in a closely fought game.
B) Iowa beats Penn State in a closely fought game.
C) Penn State blows out or wins convincingly over Iowa.
D) Iowa blows out or wins convincingly over Penn State.
Don’t know how others feel – but in order, I would prefer D), then A), then C) with B) least preferred. D) for sure because it could mess with Penn State’s head and, well, Fuck Penn State. Would put A) over C) slightly for the psyche of Michigan, knowing we are not clicking on all cylinders yet, despite the fact we are "close". Though I want Iowa to win - don’t like the B) scenario much – think it would provide the most danger for Penn State to be pissed and more fired up in front of their home fans - though I am sure they will be at some level anyways, playing Michigan.
Thoughts?
Gotta believe everyone here is rooting for an Iowa blowout ! Go Hawkeyes!
October 10th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
Field goal franklin does draw up amazing stuff....
BTW, FUCK ped state and all their delusional joepa loving fans and all the paternos and field goal franklin!!!
October 10th, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
You had me until the part about our coaches developing an excellent game plan.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Kinnick Iowa will be prepared.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
You can't take away anything from a night game at Kinnick. It's an alternate universe where no standard rules apply.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
Any info that could've been gleaned from this matchup is now thrown out the window because Iowa, at night, at Kinnick, is not even remotely the same team as road Iowa at noon.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Not sure why you got negged for this. It's the absolute truth.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
Iowa beats Penn St.
Penn St. beats Michigan.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
I just hope Iowa’s performance shows us some things we are able to exploit against Penn State.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Penn State could open their playbook to us and this staff still wouldn't exploit it.
That sounds horrible, but it's where I'm at right now.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:52 PM ^
I have said it before, Harbaugh has not beaten a decent team on the road in his 5 years here, except maybe the checked out Florida team in his first bowl.
Given that, I'm hoping that he will at ped state.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:58 PM ^
Northwestern ended the year ranked last year
October 10th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
I'll be curious since Penn State hasn't played anybody noteworthy yet.
The voodoo power of Kinnick can only help a team that ran for 1 yard last week. But If Penn State is clicking, I'll mostly likely change the channel. I mean, f*ck Iowa. But f*ck Penn State harder and forever.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
I suspect Iowa wins. They play good defense and it's in Iowa City at night. Iowa will look much better than we made them look. Penn State's a big unknown because they've played nobody good yet. Pitt gave them a good fight at home and even UB had them pretty well bottled up for a half. I like Iowa 24-20
Now, that probably means nothing for us. I still expect to get embarrassed in Happy Valley next week
October 10th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
I always hope our bigger recruiting threat loses first and foremost. Thats why Wisconsin and Iowa dont worry me too much. When we are playing either of those two im always hoping they beat PSU MSU or OSU.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
So you propose 4 scenarios. Either team can win in a close game, or either win can win convincingly/in a blowout. Ground breaking stuff here.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Reminds me of this (Reservoir Dogs):
Nice Guy Eddie: What happened to Mr. Brown and Mr. Blue?
Mr. Pink: Brown's dead. We don't know what happened to Blue.
Nice Guy Eddie: Mr. Brown's dead? Are you sure?
Mr. White: I'm sure. I was there. He took one in the head.
Nice Guy Eddie: Nobody's got a clue what happened to Mr. Blue?
Mr. Blonde: Either he's alive or he's dead. Or the cops got him or they don't.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
Well played. And pretty much the cinema version of what was described by the OP.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
Or, the game night end in a tie. He left out that possibility.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^
Or the game is called off early (due to weather or some other event) and is not considered to count. Unlikely, but possible that it could happen and not be rescheduled.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
Ooh, it's Saturday night.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
Doesn't matter, really. I like Iowa better than PSU, since children's hospital >>>>> children's abuse.
We are playing at night on the road at PSU. I'll believe we can play well at night on the road when we actually do it.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
I don't really want to be playing Penn State coming off a loss. Though I suspect it doesn't matter. We'll likely be underdogs (which Harbaugh is, I believe, 0-8 as a dog now at Michigan) on a road game in a tough environment, which is prime "shit your pants" territory for Harbaugh's Michigan teams.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
Iowa is what MSU wants to be, minus the rape culture and raging disrespekt/short guy complex. The Hawkeyes seem happy in their own skin.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Kinnick.
where dreams go to die.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
solid profile pic/comment combo
October 10th, 2019 at 12:57 PM ^
I just want PSU to get exposed, win or lose. We need to know what to exploit next week.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
Football is not a transitive game. Nothing that happens Saturday Night will mean anything for next week.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:45 PM ^
You are correct as far as the score.
But if Iowa shows PSU weaknesses it could assist us greatly in facing them.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Bunch of interesting games this weekend.
USC-ND (edited previous typo)
S. Carolina- Georgia
Clemson-FSU
Wisconsin-Sparty
Upset watch?
October 10th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
Am I the only one not impressed with UGA this season? I don't expect them to lose this weekend, but I don't see them beating Alabama or LSU in Atlanta this year.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
I'm hoping for UGA to inexplicably lose a game they should win...
October 10th, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
Married into a big UGa family, and agree with you. So far, they are not nearly where they hoped to be.
D has a ways to go -- right now that secondary has no chance of staying within screaming distance of Tua and the Bama WRs. Dawgs' OL has been banged up a bit, but they were expecting it to be a historically-good unit and it isn't there yet. WRs/TEs need another body or two to emerge.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:08 PM ^
Not to be a dick but how could you leave out OU/Texas and Florida/LSU in your interesting games list?
Those are the 2 biggest games of the day. Lol
October 10th, 2019 at 8:59 PM ^
I mean you are being a dick but that's fine, just own it.
Why did I leave them off the list? Maybe because it's so obvious I didn't need to say it. Anyone can see the top 25 list.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
If USC loses to ND bad, expect Helton to be gone next week.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^
Simple logic for me. Penn State is in our division so I want them to lose (yes I will still hope for a division title until we're mathematically eliminated). Score isn't that important because who knows what will affect PSUs motivation more. Close loss can be just as demoralizing as a blowout.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
I've shared these stats before. But I'll do it again.
Penn State is 2-12-2 ATS under James Franklin in regular season games that immediately follow a straight-up loss. That's a 18% rate of covering, which is pretty poor.
Conversely, Penn State is 29-13-2 ATS under James Franklin in regular sesaon games that immediately follow a straight-up win.
Breaking that down further, Penn State is 24-9-2 ATS under James Franklin in regular season games immediately following a straight-up win, where they are also a home favorite. That's a 71% rate of covering, which is pretty significant.
If you believe there's any meaning in those stats (I do, Franklin's teams tend to roll when they're rolling, and struggle when they're struggling), a U-M fan should be rooting for a PSU S/U loss.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
Exactly. Our best hope is that we get the type of PSU team that has lost to MSU the past two years after falling against OSU in close battles the week before.
October 10th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
Yep, you nailed it. The 2 Michigan State games are the most prominent examples of how PSU tends to under-achieve coming off of a straight-up loss. But it's been a trend well beyond that.
(the 2014 & 2015 PSU/Michigan games also fall into this category, FWIW)
October 10th, 2019 at 7:01 PM ^
Also, Franklin has NEVER beaten a ranked team on the road.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:43 PM ^
Sort of true. PSU won at Northwestern in 2017, they weren't ranked at the time but did finish the year #17.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
I root against penn state 100% of the time, every time.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
Regardless of WHO wins... I just hope Iowa can expose the PSU D or O, and give our coaching staff some ammunition going into our game the following weekend.
Edit: Personal preference is PSU to win. We beat Iowa while they were still undefeated and storming towards a B1G, PSU is still undefeated... I'd like to see UM knock off two undefeated teams.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:36 PM ^
C. definitely seems like the worst option imo
October 10th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^
Iowa is not going to beat Penn State. Iowa is NOT a good team! Prior to us, they had played and beat.
Miami (OH) 2-3
Rutgers 1-4
Iowa State 3-2 (And almost lost to Iowa St)
Mid Tennessee State 2-3
Who cares?
I don't think people are being honest with themselves about how truly unimpressive and sad the win over Iowa was. It was not a defensive 'masterpiece'. It was an average Iowa team and average Michigan team who just happened to be the same amount of AVERAGE.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
One of our Middling College of Central Ohio fans.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^
I do agree that the idea last week that we put out a defensive "masterpiece" was overdone. By a lot. The statement kind of screamed of desperation, actually.
There was nothing masterpiece-like in the repeated 3rd-and-long conversions. They weren't answered prayers or amazing football luck ... they happened time and again by design.
I'm not saying the strong points don't matter (they do) or aren't replicable (they are) by Don Brown. But it looked like Iowa had a very good idea of how to make key situation yards against us. Hoping Cam McGrone's rapid ascent continues this week and next ... we need his playmaking without his busts when we are at PSU.
October 10th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
We allowed 1 yard rushing. What term would you use to describe the performance of the defense?
October 10th, 2019 at 8:36 PM ^
One can say basically the same thing about PSU:
Idaho (FCS team) 2-4
Buffalo 2-4
Pitt 4-2 (almost lost to Pitt in Happy Valley)
Maryland 3-2
Purdue 1-4
Who cares?
PSU might be good but it's pretty hard to tell at this point given the opponents they have played.
Regardless, I think Iowa wins straight up this week at Kinnick and PSU kicks the crap out of Michigan next week in Happy Valley.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
Meh. In college football each game is a new roll of the dice. I would weakly prefer an Iowa win, just so PSU doesn't sneak into the Division title by running the table after losing to us (assuming we win), like they did in 2016.