#10 Penn State at #17 Iowa - Saturday Night

Submitted by Mike Damone on October 10th, 2019 at 11:12 AM

Penn State plays at Iowa on the ESPN Saturday night game.  Should be a really fun and interesting game to watch, especially for Michigan fans, given we just played Iowa and are headed to Happy Valley next week.  How Iowa handles Penn State may be a solid benchmark on the strength of the Michigan defense, and perhaps even how far our offense needs to come, as compared to Penn State.

In watching the game – assume the following four scenarios (know there could be several permutations).

A) Penn State beats Iowa in a closely fought game.

B) Iowa beats Penn State in a closely fought game.

C) Penn State blows out or wins convincingly over Iowa.

D) Iowa blows out or wins convincingly over Penn State.

Don’t know how others feel – but in order, I would prefer D), then A), then C) with B) least preferred.   D) for sure because it could mess with Penn State’s head and, well, Fuck Penn State.  Would put A) over C) slightly for the psyche of Michigan, knowing we are not clicking on all cylinders yet, despite the fact we are "close".  Though I want Iowa to win - don’t like the B) scenario much – think it would provide the most danger for Penn State to be pissed and more fired up in front of their home fans - though I am sure they will be at some level anyways, playing Michigan. 

Thoughts?

Gotta believe everyone here is rooting for an Iowa blowout !  Go Hawkeyes!

RockinLoud

October 10th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^

Any info that could've been gleaned from this matchup is now thrown out the window because Iowa, at night, at Kinnick, is not even remotely the same team as road Iowa at noon.

WolverineHistorian

October 10th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^

I'll be curious since Penn State hasn't played anybody noteworthy yet. 

The voodoo power of Kinnick can only help a team that ran for 1 yard last week.  But If Penn State is clicking, I'll mostly likely change the channel.  I mean, f*ck Iowa.  But f*ck Penn State harder and forever. 

lhglrkwg

October 10th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^

I suspect Iowa wins. They play good defense and it's in Iowa City at night. Iowa will look much better than we made them look. Penn State's a big unknown because they've played nobody good yet. Pitt gave them a good fight at home and even UB had them pretty well bottled up for a half. I like Iowa 24-20

Now, that probably means nothing for us. I still expect to get embarrassed in Happy Valley next week

rice4114

October 10th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^

I always hope our bigger recruiting threat loses first and foremost. Thats why Wisconsin and Iowa dont worry me too much. When we are playing either of those two im always hoping they beat PSU MSU or OSU.

NittanyFan

October 10th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^

Reminds me of this (Reservoir Dogs):

Nice Guy Eddie: What happened to Mr. Brown and Mr. Blue?

Mr. Pink: Brown's dead. We don't know what happened to Blue.

Nice Guy Eddie: Mr. Brown's dead? Are you sure?

Mr. White: I'm sure. I was there. He took one in the head.

Nice Guy Eddie: Nobody's got a clue what happened to Mr. Blue?

Mr. Blonde: Either he's alive or he's dead. Or the cops got him or they don't.

AlbanyBlue

October 10th, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^

Doesn't matter, really. I like Iowa better than PSU, since children's hospital >>>>> children's abuse. 

We are playing at night on the road at PSU. I'll believe we can play well at night on the road when we actually do it.

Soulfire21

October 10th, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^

I don't really want to be playing Penn State coming off a loss. Though I suspect it doesn't matter. We'll likely be underdogs (which Harbaugh is, I believe, 0-8 as a dog now at Michigan) on a road game in a tough environment, which is prime "shit your pants" territory for Harbaugh's Michigan teams.

You Only Live Twice

October 10th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^

Bunch of interesting games this weekend.

USC-ND  (edited  previous typo)

S. Carolina- Georgia

Clemson-FSU

Wisconsin-Sparty

 

Upset watch?

tspoon

October 10th, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^

Married into a big UGa family, and agree with you. So far, they are not nearly where they hoped to be. 

D has a ways to go -- right now that secondary has no chance of staying within screaming distance of Tua and the Bama WRs.  Dawgs' OL has been banged up a bit, but they were expecting it to be a historically-good unit and it isn't there yet.  WRs/TEs need another body or two to emerge.

Remember_the_G…

October 10th, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^

Simple logic for me. Penn State is in our division so I want them to lose (yes I will still hope for a division title until we're mathematically eliminated). Score isn't that important because who knows what will affect PSUs motivation more. Close loss can be just as demoralizing as a blowout.

NittanyFan

October 10th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^

I've shared these stats before.  But I'll do it again.

Penn State is 2-12-2 ATS under James Franklin in regular season games that immediately follow a straight-up loss.  That's a 18% rate of covering, which is pretty poor.

Conversely, Penn State is 29-13-2 ATS under James Franklin in regular sesaon games that immediately follow a straight-up win.

Breaking that down further, Penn State is 24-9-2 ATS under James Franklin in regular season games immediately following a straight-up win, where they are also a home favorite.  That's a 71% rate of covering, which is pretty significant.

If you believe there's any meaning in those stats (I do, Franklin's teams tend to roll when they're rolling, and struggle when they're struggling), a U-M fan should be rooting for a PSU S/U loss.

lostwages

October 10th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^

Regardless of WHO wins... I just hope Iowa can expose the PSU D or O, and give our coaching staff some ammunition going into our game the following weekend.

Edit: Personal preference is PSU to win. We beat Iowa while they were still undefeated and storming towards a B1G, PSU is still undefeated... I'd like to see UM knock off two undefeated teams.

BlueBalling

October 10th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^

Iowa is not going to beat Penn State.  Iowa is NOT a good team!  Prior to us, they had played and beat.

Miami (OH) 2-3

Rutgers 1-4

Iowa State 3-2 (And almost lost to Iowa St)

Mid Tennessee State 2-3

Who cares?

I don't think people are being honest with themselves about how truly unimpressive and sad the win over Iowa was.  It was not a defensive 'masterpiece'.  It was an average Iowa team and average Michigan team who just happened to be the same amount of AVERAGE.

tspoon

October 10th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^

I do agree that the idea last week that we put out a defensive "masterpiece" was overdone. By a lot.  The statement kind of screamed of desperation, actually.

There was nothing masterpiece-like in the repeated 3rd-and-long conversions. They weren't answered prayers or amazing football luck ... they happened time and again by design.

I'm not saying the strong points don't matter (they do) or aren't replicable (they are) by Don Brown. But it looked like Iowa had a very good idea of how to make key situation yards against us.  Hoping Cam McGrone's rapid ascent continues this week and next ... we need his playmaking without his busts when we are at PSU.

Logan88

October 10th, 2019 at 8:36 PM ^

One can say basically the same thing about PSU:

Idaho (FCS team) 2-4

Buffalo 2-4

Pitt 4-2 (almost lost to Pitt in Happy Valley)

Maryland 3-2

Purdue 1-4

Who cares?

PSU might be good but it's pretty hard to tell at this point given the opponents they have played.

Regardless, I think Iowa wins straight up this week at Kinnick and PSU kicks the crap out of Michigan next week in Happy Valley.

MadMatt

October 10th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^

Meh. In college football each game is a new roll of the dice. I would weakly prefer an Iowa win, just so PSU doesn't sneak into the Division title by running the table after losing to us (assuming we win), like they did in 2016.