Unverified Voracity Is Already A Pass Pro
Sponsor note. Are you thinking of starting a business? Maybe handing out water to FSU football players who are unprepared to play in the sweltering temperatures at [checks notes]… their home stadium? Or maybe you'd rather create an army of people to collect giant tips after dissuading Tennessee fans from going inside Neyland?
Well, those are fantastic ideas. You'll need some paperwork to get off the ground; you'll need someone to write up contracts for you. You'll need… a lawyer. Richard Hoeg is that lawyer. Call him. No ideas are bad ideas. Except going to Tennessee.
Well, then. My preseason projections that Tru Wilson would hold on to a plurality of Michigan snaps did not account for this possibility:
Key quote on Charbonnet: "I’ve been around pro backs that don’t understand protections the way the freshman back did. "
— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) September 2, 2019
Harbaugh also said that Charbonnet had won the starting job with or without Wilson's injury. Also:
Zach Charbonnet had nine pickups in protection, which, I don’t think we’ve had a back get nine pickups in a protection since we’ve been here, one single back,” Harbaugh said. “And to be 100 percent, nine out of nine, that’s like, wow. That’s really good.”
If Charbonnet is instantly Also Tru Wilson as a pass protector nothing is keeping him from a monster freshman year. Here's rooting for a big fat zero on one of my stupid predictions.
A shift. Here's a bit from PFF's preseason top 25:
In 2018, Patterson flashed with almost 60% of his yards coming through the air. He co-led the Big 10 in adjusted completion percentage on second or third and long with Dwayne Haskins. The Wolverines ran on almost 60% of first- and second-down plays.
As Dave mention on the podcast, Michigan's first down run rate was 45% against MTSU. That may be even a bit more of a sea change since Michigan was very run heavy once McCaffrey came in.
[After THE JUMP: Avenatti has the goods?]
Bit of a shuffle. Runyan and Spanellis were out Saturday, so this two deep changed a bit:
Ed Warinner gave us the current two-deep at OL yesterday
— Orion Sang (@orion_sang) August 20, 2019
1s: Runyan Jr., Bredeson, Ruiz, Onwenu, Mayfield
2s: Hayes, Filiaga, Spanellis, Vastardis, Honigford
Did allow for the possibility of a true freshman pushing their way up https://t.co/IKRKg5sH5l
Hayes moved up. When Michigan went to the second-team OL Karsen Barnhart spent one of his four games as the LT. That may point to a pecking order amongst the freshmen tackles. Vastardis moved over to C and a redshirt freshman walk-on named Griffin Korican was the second team RG. One of our users gave us the information on Korican when he committed; sounds like he might be a walk-on to keep an eye on.
This has been Brian Analyzes The OL Three Deep, thank you for listening to my TED talk.
Same old. An irritated MSU person posted a big thread of Brian Lewerke under pressure. It contains multiple screens and waggle rollouts, so the policework here is Ingham County standard. But there are also a number of instances of Jordan Reid, MSU's right tackle, getting straight up whooped by Golden Hurricanes:
— Spartan Digital (@SpartyDigital) September 1, 2019
Reid's been there for years and looks like he'll be about the same in 2019. There are probably 5 points worth of UFR pass pro minuses from Reid in that thread, and I'm sure there are others sprinkled throughout that game. If you have Runyan-vs-ND game against Tulsa, welp.
Dantonio: "Football is a game of effort, toughness and knowing what to do. Half of our team figured that out."
— Chris Solari (@chrissolari) September 3, 2019
The other half of the team has the same coaches as last year, but they're wearing funny hats this time.
Not quite related: MSU's long snapper is done for the year. That probably won't be relevant, but if it is it will be very funny.
Wisterts. Footage of the last three guys to wear 11 at Michigan, excepting that one time Jordan Kovacs did:
We are also 11 brothers, Francis, Albert & Alvin Wistert days from the start of the 2019 〽️ Season.
— Dr. Sap (@DrSap4UM) August 20, 2019
Enjoy this rare footage of all three brothers against OSU in 1932, Harvard in 1942 & MAC in 1947.
GO BLUE!!! pic.twitter.com/Ehjp2W17tt
Uh, could be a thing? Michael Avenatti is notoriously unreliable and his lawsuit/extortion caper against Nike seemed like it would be a big nothing, but he's apparently filed some bonafide evidence:
The Crossover has obtained litigation exhibits that Avenatti filed in support of his claims. Here is a relevant image of the discussion on paying Williamson and Langford:
Here is an image of alleged discussion concerning a supposed bribe to Langford to join Adidas (Langford would attend Indiana; the Hoosiers are sponsored by Adidas):
Avenatti contains still other specific accusations. … To be clear, available evidence does not prove that the Nike offers were ever transmitted to Williamson or Langford, or that either player accepted any bribes.
If Avenatti goes to trial, which he might have to if he wants to avoid jail time, then all manner of folks would be called into court to testify. And the combination of the SDNY prosecutors an Avenatti makes this unusually likely to happen:
Bottom line: if Avenatti won’t cut a deal and if Avenatti is unable to get the case dismissed, prosecutors will be more than prepared to go to trial. So too will Avenatti. Although cameras aren’t allowed in federal trials, the media attention in an Avenatti trial and its witness list would be off the charts.
I will get the popcorn. Here's hoping the end result here is the NCAA throws up its hands and lets players get sponsored over the table.
You do need a three. Threes: you need them. This analysis doesn't adjust for free throws, which are much more common on shots inside the line, so take the numbers with a grain of salt. The overall trend still stands:
big but still kinda small here
If you don't want to squint, when you get down to the end of the game and trail increasingly worse threes are the equivalent of 50% two-point shots. So when the announcer says "now, they don't need a three here" they probably do.
Camp Sanderson continues apace. We've mention Colin Castleton joining the 12-foot club over the offseason, but wait, there's more:
Sophomore guard Adrien Nuñez improved his vertical jump by 3.5 inches from his baseline, which was measured shortly after his campus arrival. His agility times have improved as well. Classmate Brandon Johns Jr.'s weight room numbers "have gone up like crazy," Sanderson said. …
For senior center Jon Teske, conditioning was the focus. Playing 30 minutes per game is demanding for any player, but particularly a 7-footer. His first year, he was able to cover the length of the court 23.5 times in a three-minute period. This summer he covered 26.5 lengths. "That's a whole different athlete," Sanderson said.
Cole Bajema is up to 190, and hopefully tracking towards being able to contribute as a freshman.
A nice pickup. Hockey suffered another defection from the 2020 class when Andrei Bakanov signed with the OHL, but they quickly filled that slot with another forward:
Hearing US NTDP U-18 forward Thomas Bordeleau has committed to Michigan for 2020-21. Was one of the NTDP’s top ‘02 forwards in 18-19. Really nice get for the Wolverines.
— Jeff Cox (@JeffCoxSports) August 27, 2019
Bordeleau was the U17's leading scorer last year and is projected as a second-round pick. He's 5'9"—5'9" guys who are relatively high draft picks are invariably fun as hell on the college level.
The U17's strike again! @USAHockeyNTDP win in a shootout! pic.twitter.com/aEdUWeQfXj
— USHL (@USHL) January 13, 2019
Bordeleau should arrive next year. Per Bob Miller, Michigan is a possibility for Denver decommit Ty Smilanic, the last guy in the 2020 NTDP class who's uncommitted.
Etc.: Carl Grapentine's pump-up playlist features the Kegelstatt Trio, naturally. Illinois loses RB Mike Epstein for the year. They still have Corbin. Hockey preview from a journalist who covers Minnesota. EDSBS remembered by Illinois and A&M outposts. Want to get in the weeds about specialists? MGoBlog is significantly more resilient than the Jeremy Renner app. Sap's Decals.
September 3rd, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^
pass pro shops
September 3rd, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^
Holy moly, if that's MSU's OL against Tulsa, they're screwed against a B1G DL
September 3rd, 2019 at 7:27 PM ^
I'm gonna throw out a willd ass prediction that at some point during the season the defensive players may quit. They'll play hard for a while but after it becomes apparent that the offense can't carry it's own weight and they crater any chance against decent teams, they'll finish 7-5 or 6-6.
September 3rd, 2019 at 10:33 PM ^
I up voted this on the assumption you are referring to MSU, not UM.
September 4th, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
I mean, they probably won't quit since most of them are NFL prospects but they may stop playing for the team and simply for a contract.
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^
It's becoming clearer and clearer to me that MSU's past run was fueled by a lot of specific conditions (Michigan and, to a lesser extent, PSU being down, getting a lot of kids from Ohio and Michigan who now go to Cincy and UK, their defensive system being unique) that don't exist anymore, and the result is a middling team that will be a pain in the ass but isn't a contender anymore.
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:19 PM ^
You look at any team that seems to have recent, but consistent overachievement of it's baseline, circumstances outside of its control is often a factor. For example, West Virginia and RichRod's rise in the Big East coincided with Miami and Virginia Tech's departure to the ACC. The other way to "overachieve" is just flat out commit to being better with more resources a la Oregon with Nike money.
Dantonio doesn't get enough credit in these parts for the work he's done at MSU, but it was certainly helped by Michigan's walk through the wilderness 10 years prior to Harbaugh's arrival.
There aren't that many difference maker coaches out there whose sheer presence is consistently worth more wins regardless of resources. For what it's worth, I think this is true in the general world at large.
September 4th, 2019 at 6:20 AM ^
I agree. The rise of MSU coincided with RR's arrival and his complete lack of Midwest recruiting.
September 3rd, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
Uche gonna have that edge all day on whomever Sparty throws out there at L or R Tackle.
September 3rd, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^
Eh not really. Remember that MSU never gets called for holding when they play Michigan.
The cheating will happen and it will be endemic and uncalled. I hope we win but it’s more important to get out of the game uninjured. In that sense I’m way more worried about Sparty than Army.
September 3rd, 2019 at 8:59 PM ^
From those clips I'm not sure Reid could even get a hand on a D1 DE to hold them.
September 4th, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
After Bush urinated on their field and Michigan embarrassed them last season, they will come to play. And if, as expected, Michigan begins to pull away the cheap shots are going to rain down. Mork will get his pound of flesh in this game one way or another.
September 3rd, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
If you replaced Pitbull with Michael Avenatti on the banner I probably would never notice.
September 3rd, 2019 at 5:13 PM ^
This is my favorite GIF of MSU OL incompetence versus Tulsa:
https://twitter.com/worldofisaac/status/1167582421396742146
September 3rd, 2019 at 6:24 PM ^
Holy lawd, that's incredible. The amount of DGAF by Reid on that play is astounding. When Chewins couldn't come back - and word is he'll be out for a while - any chance for that OL being even below average (as opposed to atrocious) went with him. Their whole season now will be beating Michigan. Which is exactly back where MSU was and should be.
Just as a quick note, if you go to the tweet, then "copy link to tweet" (don't choose "embed tweet"), then choose that little button on new comment that looks like a spreadsheet, paste it, and voila.
September 3rd, 2019 at 8:42 PM ^
So, the NT does get a good jump (which means their snap count is problematic) but someone on that thread argued they had that play won if the OG could just pull around.
For starters, that OG is not moving even close to fast enough to get play side. The weird bucket step side shuffle thing he does is super slow. And even then, they don't have a numbers advantage play side. There are 2 Tulsa guys screaming downhill to take that RB out. That one OG is not Quenton Nelson.
So much for new OC changing things up and getting the OL coach back to his original position instead of co-OC.
September 3rd, 2019 at 9:11 PM ^
Completely agree on the guard pulling - even if he was quick, Heyward is screaming at the hole full bore from the jump. Which is another problem.
Besides ALL of that, there are still two free hitters that take Heyward down. Even if the guard gets there, no other gaps are available and he's met with a free hitter. Maybe they say he's big, he trucks the guy, but not if slowed down enough to let that guard get around.
September 3rd, 2019 at 9:05 PM ^
Is #70 supposed to pull and block in front of the RB, if so holy shit did he blow that play, it ended up looking like the rb was blocking for him
September 3rd, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
Yeah but that's on the RB as well. He's supposed to be patient and wait for that to develop. Practice (and the last several years of MSU OL play) has probably taught him that it's not worth waiting for, he has a better chance of making it on his own.
September 3rd, 2019 at 10:17 PM ^
I would agree with you except look at the step pattern of Lewerke and the RB. It's handed off like a weak side dive. There's no counter step by the RB or lead action to the the front side by Lewerke. The whole thing is either ran horribly wrong or they're asking a guy to pull faster than a straight downhill runner. Neither are good things.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
Yeah, you're right. The center is blocking down though, which would indicate the RG is supposed to pull around. If it's just a dive I'd think they'd scoop that DT and LB. Awful play.
September 3rd, 2019 at 10:13 PM ^
He's definitely supposed to be pulling to that gap. The NT slows him down but there's no way he's getting there even with a clean line.
September 3rd, 2019 at 5:15 PM ^
If Charbonnet is instantly also Tru Wilson as a pass protector nothing is keeping him from a monster freshman year.
FFS, stop tempting Angry Michigan RB Hating God.
September 3rd, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
There may be nothing worse in sports than a coach, making millions of dollars of his player's backs, calling those players out for his own shortcomings.
September 3rd, 2019 at 6:10 PM ^
To be fair to Mike Dantonios, he is trying to coach his offense with these comments. They are calculated, not emotionally like they may first appear. Now, feeling your only hope to improve the offense is criticizing them in the media.....oh boy !
September 4th, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
He's learned from the best, good 'ol Angry Elf Tom Izzo. The king of throwing players under the bus.
September 3rd, 2019 at 5:45 PM ^
Still early, but I'm taking a lap on the Hunter Johnson won't be that good and MSU's coaching staff change is laughable (I know plenty of us had the 2nd one) stuff.
Had multiple people MSU fans say (on Reddit) they'd take Brad Salem and his OC experience... from a decade ago(!) over Gattis. Something to the effect "Gattis is a complete unknown" while "Salem has been on staff for years so there won't be a learning curve." Completely ignoring that Salem has been on staff for a decade in which no one ever thought of promoting him over doorknobs. That video of Lewerke wasn't just the OL getting beat up, they're running the same stuff at a terrible defense and getting nothing.
September 3rd, 2019 at 6:23 PM ^
You know this because you said it, but that's nothing to take a lap on. Anyone who suggested Salem was anything other than a very low likelihood of 1) success and 2) capable of putting in an offense significantly at odds to what Dantonio's run for years was foolish. And didn't watch that OL a year ago. You're correct it was 10 years ago, but even worse it was at something called Augustana College.
The change is more Lewerke runs, and that kid already looks like he's tired of it.
You really had no idea what Hunter Johnson was going to be. There was little data on that one way or the other.
September 3rd, 2019 at 8:38 PM ^
I'd like to go laugh in those MSU fan's faces because they refuse to even entertain the notion that they might be incorrect. I brought up the Augustana thing specifically and the response was "being an OC at that school (10 years ago) is better than co-oc at Alabama last season." They're delusional and won't concede to a well argued point.
The Hunter Johnson thing was more a large majority of NW fans saying he'd be great because he was a 5-star. Ignoring that he never threw a meaningful pass with Clemson and that Clemson's WRs >>>> NW's WRs.
September 3rd, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
Fair enough. Leave the Flying Valenti's be. They'll have enough anguish ahead of them with another 7-5 season and an offseason coaching search (Dantonio will retire).
September 3rd, 2019 at 10:47 PM ^
Would Dantonio retire without being able to choose his successor? I doubt it, at least for the next year or two.
September 3rd, 2019 at 10:48 PM ^
I'd be more impressed if it was the D III Augustana. Augustana (SD) is not good.
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:23 PM ^
Clearly you haven't seen D-III Augustana recently. The Bob Reade Augustana juggernaut is nearly 40 years in the past.
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:40 PM ^
As an alum of Auggie (Rock Island, IL) I can say the past 10+ years have not been kind to a once proud football program.
September 3rd, 2019 at 6:26 PM ^
If FSU and SC both have coaching vacancies after this season, which job does Urban take?
September 3rd, 2019 at 7:42 PM ^
MSU because the world hates us.
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:13 PM ^
If I'm Clay Helton, I'd just mail the keys to my office to Meyer today and save myself the trouble.
September 4th, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
USC. I don't think Urban wants to go anywhere near Florida anymore. He certainly didn't leave on good terms. And they don't have hurricanes in California. He would barely have to lift a finger to recruit there.
September 3rd, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^
Even if Avenatti wins anything against the NCAA, it will never condescend itself into allowing players to be paid, or to have other ways of earning money off the back of the sport they play. It currently goes against everything it's ever stood for, and the exorbitantly rich people that run the show won't prostrate themselves enough to allow 'the players' to win an argument.
If it allows anything (anything = the least possible they can reasonably get away with), they'll phrase the PR campaign to make it look like they're giving a benefit to players because its the 'right thing to do'. Not because it really is the right thing to do.
September 3rd, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
Wow. Those comments about pass protection for Charbonnet is probably the most encouraging non b.s. about a frosh UM player I have heard in my lifetime. I can't recall the last time I have heard such a compliment.
Oh this guy can cut or vision or this or that is wonderful to hear. I am not saying that isn't important or valuable or sometimes accurate but stating that a rb takes pride in the blocking tells me he is either really smart or values an important and selfless trait which is to block and get physical when they aren't running the ball. This is absolutely the biggest commendation of a new rb and everything else is added bonus points.
September 3rd, 2019 at 8:52 PM ^
I completely agree.
In my opinion, it's not just the intrinsic value of not getting your QB killed; I think it's also an indicator of other desirable traits. I suspect that when you're good enough that every team wants you just because of your ball skills, and you put in the effort to excel at blocking anyway, that probably says a lot about a young man's character, about how much he loves the game, about how coachable he is, and so on.
It's just one game, but barring injury, I'd be willing to bet substantial money at long odds against Charbonnet being anything less than well-above-average at UM.
September 3rd, 2019 at 7:17 PM ^
Can we please get a feature on pass pro schemes for RBs and an analysis of what reads they make, what makes them diffiult to learn, etc? I would like to understand the nuances better. To me, it always seemed like the RB stands in a "hole" based on how the OL is blocking, and just "walls up" against the first defender who shows his face. It appears way more detailed than this?
September 3rd, 2019 at 8:45 PM ^
I would enjoy seeing something like this, too. I know that one of the complexities is deciding whether to go out to the flat to be a safety-valve or check-down for the QB, vs. when to stay in because there's a blitzing LB that needs picked up, but I have no idea how nuanced that decision making process is, or what other considerations there are.
September 3rd, 2019 at 9:31 PM ^
Generally, you want the RB to look at A/B gap first because those are the shortest path to the QB and then fan out to the E gap. Knowing the OL blocking scheme helps because it gives the RB an idea of where to look for in an instant as well as defensive formation/alignment on possible free rush. Then there's the RB's willingness to stick their nose to block against a defender running at them full speed.
September 4th, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
My favorite RB pass blocker is still Mike Hart. Can still picture him stopping blitzers by sticking his helmet in their gonads. Sometimes it pays to be 5'6".
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:33 PM ^
It depends on the protection for one thing. If it's a version of half man, half slide (one side is man, the other will zone protect in the opposite direction), the back is generally responsible for the LBs from the center to the sideline (basically outside LB). If any of those, usually only, 2 guys pressure he has him. If both pressure, take most dangerous. If neither pressure, get into a pass route.
It sounds relatively easy, but the hard part is having the vision to see this with tall trees (OL/DL) around you and then having the cajones to put your face in there and block a guy running hard to the QB.
The difficult part is the vision and having an understanding of what you see with those LBs bouncing around. An OLB twisting around into the A gap behind a bunch of huge guys is difficult to see and in some way even more difficult to execute.
This is a relatively easy protection concept. I would imagine Michigan's is more complex than this.
September 4th, 2019 at 2:14 AM ^
Sounds very similar to a LB reading a run behind the trees and trying to figure out which gap the ball is going to come through. Instead of stunts and twists, the LB has to deal with pulling linemen and read options.
Fair comparison? So Charbonnets grade would be akin to an LB making the right read on 9/9 rushing attempts?
September 4th, 2019 at 7:24 AM ^
Provided a LB has his eyes in the right place (usually the guards through to the backfield), he can identify most any run quickly. The problem for LBs is then getting to the right place/gap, taking on a big OL with the proper leverage and then making a tackle. Just because you know it's power right after the snap doesn't mean you will play it correctly. So I'm not sure they are quite analogous.
80% of long runs in college involve the backside LB from the play direction doing a very poor job.
September 3rd, 2019 at 8:17 PM ^
Korican looked like a future contributor vs MTSU ..... I watched him intently in the little stretch he played. He is not there yet obviously but I liked his grit and he sure looked the part, and I think he starts one day, a few years from now. He must have been a guy who went to zero events and camps hence his offer sheet. I digress... I didn't watch Filiaga at all and wonder if anyone did and has a report to give.
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