The Zags (and the Big 12)
You know you've been missing conference realignment content recently...haven't you? :)
https://www.outkick.com/gonzaga-basketball-big-12-speculation-conference-talks/
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
The B12 is dead. The Pac12 is dead.
Long live the King
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
The Big 12 will find a niche and survive in some form, perhaps even thrive, simply by virtue of the massive viewership and cultural significance of college football in its traditional footprint (i.e., Texas and surrounding states). That's why it was able to land a relatively lucrative TV deal despite the departures of Texas and Oklahoma.
The Pac-12, however, is in serious trouble. College football on the West Coast has been in a death spiral for the better part of the past 15 years. Larry Scott's atrocious leadership (highlighted by his nonsensical decision to launch the Pac-12 Network without a major broadcast partner) ran the conference into the ground, and now it's in a hole that's too deep to crawl out of. Of the schools that remain, Oregon is the only one whose brand strength, fan following, and resources resemble that of your typical B1G or SEC blueblood. But Oregon's problem is that it's not located in a large TV market and it isn't a national draw like Michigan, Ohio State, or Notre Dame. So I really don't see much of a path forward for the Pac-12.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
I think you're underrating UW and Seattle - but also, i think the remaining PacX schools can find a niche similar to the Big 12, right? ASU, Utah, Wazzu and even CU all have gameday atmospheres to rival the Hateful 8 in the Big 12. And power to them! Its fair to say they may not like football as much as Texas - but the idea that there isn't a sizable population of football loving people this whole country over is wrong. Some places have NFL teams and so that bleeds college football's viewership (the northeast), but most of the biggest Pac12 draws complement an NFL team and do just fine. The Pac12 was absolutely mismanaged for 15 years and took a significant blow because of it. But it doesn't have to be a death knell - sports media rights are exploding and west coast football doesn't need to go the way of the Big East.
If Oregon does get the invite they want, yea I expect there will be some scrambling and some falling off, while the 4 mountain schools join the Big 12. But if the Big 12 is looking at the Zags, heck maybe Oregon State and Wazzu find their way there too. At that point, the Pac12 will go the way of the Big East - just like the Big East merged into the ACC, the Pac12 will mostly be absorbed by other conferences. It'd be sad - WVU belongs in the ACC with all of their old friends, dammit - and I dunno what happens to Stanford and Cal - but everywhere else, I'm confident they'll keep playing football on (mostly) Saturdays, and have a bit better chance at making the CFP than they currently do.
November 4th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
With Houston (and BYU?) joining and a decent new football contract, rumors of their death may be premature.
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
When I read "Zags" my mind thought "Zips"
So I clicked on this thread really confused/intrigued as to why the Big12 would be interested in Akron.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:49 AM ^
Because fear the Roo
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
This is an odd one because nearly all of the realignment conversation has been football-centric.
I don't see much of a cultural fit. Geography would be challenging, too, but admittedly less than LA schools in the Big Ten.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
I think the Big 12's view is that it would reinforce their position at top basketball conference without having to cannibalize their football revenue. Gonzaga would probaby get a smaller share with no football, but it would end up being larger than the WCC.
The WCC is also losing BYU to the Big 12 next year which is going to weaken the conference.
November 4th, 2022 at 12:07 AM ^
It does seem the best cultural and geographical fit would be the PACX
November 4th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
Gonzaga is a Jesuit school. To me, it fits in much better in the Big 12, with the likes of Baylor, TCU, and BYU. The geography is a challenge, but that’s the world we live in now.
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
My son is a freshman at Gonzaga. The Big 12 doesn't seem like a good fit geographically, academically, and with no football program. The PAC 10 seems like a little better fit. The Big East would be perfect if not for the geography. Gonzaga basketball does have a generation of fans that grew up with them as a borderline blue blood program now so I can see the appeal of adding them to a conference who is struggling to survive.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
Honestly, will there be a Pac-<insert number here> much longer? If the Big Ten grabs anymore worth having schools from that conference, and that might be all she wrote.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
I think it depends on the Big Ten. I don't see them merging with the Big 12 any time soon, and they will always have some value because of the time zone for TV.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Pac-# can always survive. There’s always the Mountain West that they could raid.
Boise State, Colorado State (Bad right now, but a lot of money was just infused into their athletics), Fresno State, UNLV (bball), San Diego State, San Jose State for example.
Much like the Big 12, you’re losing some big name recognition but there are quality additions available that maintain your status as a power conference.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^
Problem is the Pac-12 never wanted them because Gonzaga didn't fit their profile. Times may be changing now with pressure on the conference to survive though.
It's bad fit geographically, but as an institution I think the Big 12 makes more sense than the Pac-12 (a bunch of state schools and Stanford).
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
Odd move throwing their chips into the college hoops pool with a team that plays most of their home games when most of America is asleep. I hope it works out because I'm tired of seeing Gonzaga waltz into March with a top seed and only a handful of Power 5 matchups on their schedule.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
Waltz into March? I will say I have been a Gonzaga fan since 99, but I get annoyed and tired of this argument. Gonzaga plays one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the country.
Two years ago: Texas AM, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Arizona, and UNC.
Last year Gonzaga played: Texas, UCLA, Duke, Alabama, Washington, and Texas Tech.
This year they play: Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Baylor, Washington, and Alabama.
They play in the WCC. Yeah, it's weak, but they do not have football. The PAC didn't want them two decades ago because of the lack of football, but clearly, they have been successful in March, even better than Michigan. 13 years in a row making it to the second round. Seven years in a row of making it to the Sweet 16. Four of the last eight tournaments to the Elite 8, two Final Fours in the previous five years, and runner-up twice in five years.
But sure, just waltzing in.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^
I’m confused… Are we supposed to be impressed with 6 tough games a year prior to the tournament? Does that somehow negate them waltzing into the tournament? They could go 0-6 in those games and they’d still get be a 2 or 3 seed.
As for the NCAA tournament success, part of that could be attributed to having such an easy conference schedule and conference tournament. While Power conference teams are beating each other up all year, Gonzaga gets a bunch of controlled scrimmages. Meaning their players are generally healthier and fresh when the tournament rolls around. Your Big Ten Champs face an extra 2-3 NCAA tournament teams in the conference tournament a week or two before the actual tournament.
Gonzaga is a very good basketball program. Nobody is taking that away from them. But let’s not sit here and pretend their path isn’t incredibly easy every single year.
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
They absolutely wouldn't be a 2 or 3 if they lost all six of those games. They were ranked 4th in the country one year and got a four seed. They have built a modern blue blood out of a program out of a school the size of many D2 schools and perform better than 99% of March Madness teams.
November 3rd, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^
This argument falls flat when Gonzaga holds the nation's longest streak of most consecutive Sweet 16 appearances.
Gonzaga is an elite basketball program and they're now getting elite recruits mixed in a bunch of 3-4 year program guys who can grow into their role. They played the toughest non-conference schedule in the country because they can.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
Don't know why they would want to leave a good thing for the Big 12.
Their chances now of winning their league are great, and get an auto bid.
If they finish 2nd in their current league, they would probably get in too.
Not so sure they would do as well in the Big 12.
Could be a money grab, which is fine for them. Mark Few may be there 10-20 years, then what?
For the most part, I think that their two basketball programs are all they have to offer in terms of sports. I could be wrong.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
Money. I doubt the WCC provides the same revenue that one of the Power 5 conferences could potentially offer.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^
Mark Few may be there 10-20 years, then what?
The answer to that question is why they would think about leaving the WCC.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
There's a "Cold War" ongoing between the Big XII and Pac-12 right now (the Big XII hinting at inviting Arizona/ASU/CU/Utah ...... the Pac-12 Commissioner saying he'll easily get more $$$ from TV than the Big XII just got ..... et cetera).
This is simply another piece in that Cold War. Gonzaga would be a more natural fit for the Pac-12 geographically but the Big XII taking them removes them as an option for the Pac-12.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
If I'm a Gonzaga fan, why would I want this?
Gonzaga has proven they can win and be a "power" on the national stage without joining a "major" conference. They are able to recruit the absolute best players in the country to come to their school. And they're doing it from a mid-major conference that they are likely going to win every year. None of their traditional blood rivalries would be going along. All of that history and tradition would slowly wipe away so that they could play TCU and West Virginia twice a year in Jan and Feb?
The school (Administrators/AD/President I don't know so I'll just call it "school") looks at the Big 12 as a potential improvement over their current conference,.because it would potentially have a (slightly at this point) better TV deal. And everything else is forsaken for a relatively small payday.
If I were a fan or alum I would be demanding that the school say exactly what they are expecting out of this deal. What it will go toward buying. And why/how that's worth what they'd be giving up.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
The argument I read from Gonzaga fans is that they have "under-achieved" (crazy to say for a school with 2 National Title runners-up in the last 6 years) in recent NCAA tournaments and that's partially because WCC play doesn't prepare them well enough for the tourney.
I don't necessarily buy that, and even if so, there should be other creative scheduling options. E.g., could the WCC and Big East partner such that the Top 2 WCC teams play each of the Top 4 Big East teams annually in January/February games?
UNLV made their schedule work back in the day when there were both a national power and conference mates with the likes of UCSB and Fullerton State.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
This is exactly why Gonzaga has the toughest nonconference schedule they have ever had. They play Michigan State, 12 Texas, 4 Kentucky, 5 Baylor, and 20 Alabama. I still say it is all about the money.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
It has to be all about the money. They are a small school of 5,000 students. I am not sure if they even receive TV money from the West Coast Conference. Imagine what a partial Power 5 conference payday would due for a small school like this.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:41 PM ^
I think money is why Gonzaga has had these flirtations with other conferences every few years for a while now. I believe, in fact, the Mountain West started talking to them a few years ago, which prompted Gonzaga to do a rough accounting of how much they bring to the WCC with their tournament success alone, and then they negotiated for a bigger share of those returns. That sort of makes it seem like they are willing to stay provided there is an understanding about who is in control here. That said, if the Big XII is willing to write big checks too, who knows at this point....
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
Lot of people in here saying the Big 12 is basically dead, but I think they're on decent footing now. They just signed a pretty good TV deal, including a grant of rights which should make future raids more difficult. And on the basketball side, they may very well be the best basketball conference already with the additions of Houston and Cincinnati (and even BYU/UCF are not, like, abject); adding Gonzaga would make that a near certainty.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
I'm surprised Outkick isn't banned here.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
Came here to say this and would have been disappointed if it hadn't been said already.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
This sounds like an ESPN idea....
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
Basketball doesn't pay the bills. For me, them adding Gonzage would show they've run out of AAC teams that are in any way worth poaching, and they're not making any progress in cannibalizing the Pac-12.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
From a "follow the money" perspective, which seems to be the driver for all the realignment, Gonzaga just isn't compelling without football.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
Gonzaga wouldn't get a full share or possibly any of the football money. Hard to separate because usually these contracts are negotiated for football and basketball together, but Gonzaga would probably only receive the value added to the conference for basketball.
November 3rd, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
Johns Hopkins is a Big Ten school. This seems fine.