Would arm punt to 3 NFL receivers work?
Not a total hawt take here, so bear with me... the offense is atrocious, and is by no means an RPO. It’s more, QB lacks ability to read, can only pass off broken plays or to his first read in his progressions, and the run option is simply RB slamming head into brick wall...as qb is injured or reluctant to run.
All that said, assuming we don’t go with McCaffrey ASAP (huge mistake for the future of this offense and program imo), I don’t understand why we aren’t arm punting at least 7-10 chucks down the field per game to our 3 NFL wide receivers...especially early in games.
1) They are giants with speed...all 3 would be putting up video game numbers at Oklahoma or OSU.
2) 6’2, 4.4 speed giants running go routes puts so much pressure on a defense and will force safeties out of the box, opening up pockets for the run game.
3) This helps open up the middle of the field as the game progresses for slants and crossing routes for the same receivers, slot demons, or even the RB.
4) Corners, especially in college, have a tough time in man technique and this would surely end up in a bunch of PI calls on under-thrown balls.
5) If QB proves competent, this opens up the almost indefensible back shoulder fade.
Our offense has no identity...I don’t see how early and often arm punts down field do anything but help the team establish something better than what we are seeing. Offensive game calling is like writing a script, and our staff can’t seem to get past the prologue phase.
This strategy worked for PSU and McSorely with far less at the WR position. Why not use our most talented position group to establish some game flow and write an narrative with continuity, before going all B1G grind ball, and at least get the defensive front 7 and safeties on their heels?
Thoughts? Is this too naive and simplistic to work?
October 6th, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
Maybe, yes, Yes, and yes respectively.
October 6th, 2019 at 6:27 PM ^
I don't remember one actual punt downed inside the 20. I would've rathered we just launched it up to Collins on 3rd down and put Dax Hill in the slot to go down and cover the arm punt if it was picked off.
Either falls incomplete or is picked and Dax makes the tackle. It's complete or we get a PI.
(I realize there are other possibilities but I'm only partly joking)
October 6th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm wondering if the oblique issue is affecting Shea here. Obviously you would use those muscles more on a deep throw than a shorter one.
When McCaffrey went out there in the UW game, was the staff giving him the job, or were we just sitting Shea for a spell? His concussion made it moot, but I wonder otherwise what we would have seen the last two weeks.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Shea's issue is his inability to process information quickly enough or correctly. Maybe his oblique is making him favor and stare down some throws that are easier on it, but I haven't noticed that.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Yeah, he may have some other issues. He wasn't this bad last year though. He had a pretty good junior year overall.
October 6th, 2019 at 6:29 PM ^
If he's hurt that's makes it even more dumb that we left him in for the hail mary at the end of the first half when we have Joe the CANNON Milton who could heave one to the end zone.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
I'm honestly convinced we have a higher success rate with arm punts vs. short passing. Yes, there's a large difference in sample size but...whatever.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
The interceptions, on average, would certainly be less costly
October 6th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
We'll never know the answer
October 6th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
You're probably right. Not with this breach of contract party who fails to perform of a "speed in space" coach we now have.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
This has been covered at every possible outlet and most agree to an extent. I'd extend it to 4 NFL receivers: Collins, Bell, DPJ, Black.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
Not to mention if you're sending those guys deep consistently you can run our also good TEs under the coverage as another option.
Cheers.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
Sending five vertical leaves no extra protection for the QB unless the TE stays home for a couple seconds to chip a blitzer. One or two of the WR's would need to run a short route. Otherwise, a blitz would get Patterson killed before anyone could make it 25 yards downfield.
Anyway, WTF do I know? Nothing. Yes, literally I know nothing about football play calling.
October 7th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Running 5 vertical leaves you 5 O Linemen and your QB, so your TE wouldn’t even be on the field unless you are MSU
October 6th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
Penn State had Saquon Barkley and McSorely who could both run thus sucked in the safeties and linebackers. We have neither nor do we ever run plays that actually threaten to run often enough.
Arm punt offense is better than what is currently happening but not the end all solution. That involves a QB change.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
Well, against what kind of defense? Throwing up a long one against man coverage is fine, but I believe “arm punting” is no way to go through life. Unless you are fine with lots of interceptions.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
As this is the first time I have encountered this completely novel idea, I'm going to need some time to think it over. I should be prepared to give an answer the tenth time I see this thread.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
I feel there should be at least 1-2 thrown down the field to each of them over the course of the game. Third and medium is a great time. Right before half with 18 seconds left would've been a great time(instead we let the clock run down to 1).
October 6th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Yes. 50-50 deep balls are about what Patterson's completion percentage is anyways. But seriously, it would only be a positive to throw the ball deep.....you get big chunk plays once and a while and you do not allow the defense to sit on routes and clog up the running game.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
Arm punting? Bombs on fly patterns you mean? How about just throwing more of any kind of passes to the big 3?
October 6th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
I like our WRs, but I don’t think they’re exactly three NFL-ready receivers the way some of you think. Black dropped at least one easy catch yesterday, Collins cut a route short and missed the foray down, etc...
October 6th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
The WRs looked better last year under Jim McElwain.
October 6th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
Agree here. They are all NFL level talents, not sure they have gotten the best coaching since being here which is a fucking crime. Black definitely dropped one, and possibly a second, that were in his hands. Nico cut that out route absurdly short on 3rd and 4 and only got 2 yards, and Gattis ripped him a new one for it. No 3rd year WR should be getting bitched at about not getting to the sticks on 3rd down. That’s shit they coach you up on in pee wee and middle school. It’s the type of play that got you sat on the bench for a series in high school, and my school was the absolute pits when it came to football
October 6th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Black is by no means an NFL receiver right now. NFL body yes, but far from NFL production. Route running and hands need improvement
October 6th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
Five BIG teams have 2 receivers in stats leaders B4 Nico shows up at #17.
Maybe these aren't NFL guys, lack of separation and practicing against man to man is not a formula that works.
Arm punting is not the answer.
October 6th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
Yea it would be really nice to take more shots deep. Especially during that mid game lul our offense goes into every game. On every play Tarik, Nico, or DPJ is going to be singled up, scheme it up and start taking shots. Or maybe our receivers just a tad overrated, their good but aren’t twitchy enough to create consistent separation
October 6th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Hey, here's a guy that knows how a passing game works, explaining why the passing game at LSU is working:
October 6th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
Ugh...Meyer is such a coaching savant, and such a flawed character.
listening to him break down film is different than anyone else on tv or commentating.
Then I think of UF arrests, wife beater Smith, general scumminess.
It feels dirty, but I enjoy his film session breakdown.
Those crossing routes last year vs. Watson were the “fish fry” I guess :(
October 6th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
Meyer didn't cause those things at Florida and Ohio St. But it was on him to be strict with them. Utah was not a good training ground for dealing with moral and criminal problems that crop up in a big time program.
October 6th, 2019 at 5:32 PM ^
Actually it was on him. He held Zach Smiths wife while she was being beaten, and he helped Aaron Hernandez kill that guy and drove the getaway car. Just the fax
October 6th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
Imagine being an average, run-of-the-mill FBS safety or corner. Imagine how scary it would be going into a matchup with DPJ, Collins, and Black on the other team. You'd be worrying all week leading up to the game about how you were going to keep pace with those guys. How you were going to be able to jump high enough to contest balls. How you were going to decide who to cheat toward if two or more ran deep routes.
Then imagine your relief--and disbelief--during the game when these guys only get five passes total between them and one deep ball the whole game.
What a relief!
October 6th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
The approach on offense is playing great defense for the other team. A nice twelfth man for them.
Yeah, you're right, the passing should be getting a lot more done. There are so many experienced players back on offense this year that it should just organically be looking better than this. I think Josh Gattis is pulling the offense down into underachievement.
October 6th, 2019 at 5:35 PM ^
“It should just organically be looking better than this”
deserves excessive reiteration
October 6th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
My thoughts?
1. This should be in the offensive snowflake thread since it'a game weekend.
2. This contains nothing new, and we have pondered this at least 50x this season and hundreds of times in the Harbaugh era.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
False assumption:
Michigan has 3 NFL receivers. Slow the train down.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
arm punts are not an offense. those coaches are being paid millions and basically have 9 returning starters. figure the shit out!
October 6th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
USC seems to be doing okay with their arm punter 3rd string QB.
Anytime you have to say, "Bear with me" or Hear me out" in the first sentence of your post, don't start a post. Sneak it in there with the "Offense Snowflake" post.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
You vastly overate our WRs. DPJ is just a guy at OSU.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
Bullshit. DPJ will be a high pick in the NFL draft. He is a freak athlete and would be putting up amazing numbers at Alabama, Clemson, and OSU. Urban Meyer himself singled DPJ out yesterday on the Fox telecast as an unbelievable talent.
October 6th, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^
How many high draft pick WRs has OSU had? Plenty.
He’d be one of many at OSU or Alabama.
October 6th, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
Ok, this is the first time I've said this. I've seen it said on this place. Here's my first time:
Just stop.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
Michigan has a perfect shit storm of a 1st time OC who may be in over head, a Head Coach who doesn't know any more than the OC, a broken QB, and a veteran offensive line that isn't living up to expectations.
It's likely to not get much better.
Only at Michigan can an offensive change completely go off the rails.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
Every 3rd and long when we are in oppositions territory, yet outside of FG range, should be an arm punt to the big 3. I wish that was true, but instead we see the 3rd and 10 check down pass for a gain of 4 yards.
October 6th, 2019 at 12:52 PM ^
Do any of them run 4.4 right now? They seem slow...I mean, Shea is not doing well, it’s not on WR’s. Playcalling and qb have struggled....
October 6th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Nothing much to add other than one of myfavorite plays of all time was when Michigan's third play from scrimmage in the 2004 Rose Bowl was a perfectly thrown Navarre "arm punt" to Braylon (which Braylon dropped)...
Establish that you will throw it deepand that will open up the run game significantly...and you don't have to always complete them with these receivers
October 6th, 2019 at 8:28 PM ^
Actually when Braylon dropped it, Pete Carrol saw that M did not come to play and didn't really worry about any deep threat. Had he caught it, would've changed the game significantly. When receivers drop passes that fall right where they're supposed to be, it does little to change how an opposing coach defenses the team. Sometimes receivers really do need to catch the ball.
October 6th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
“.all 3 would be putting up video game numbers at Oklahoma or OSU.”
fuck, it hurts because it’s true. It’s unbelievable. I cannot imagine another 5* WR choosing us after this mess.
October 6th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
Can you imagine someone with the hands of Nico Collins with Nick Saban? Saban wanted him and put a lot of effort into recruiting him He would be a superstar at Alabama. Here, he gets 2 to 4 targets, and 30 to 60 yards, a game. He's on pace to get less catches, yards, and TDs than last year. SMH!!!!
Here's a post I put together about Nico Collins and Alabama, to show how much Nick Saban wanted him: https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/pff-big10-has-best-wrs-plus-nico-collins-feature
October 6th, 2019 at 2:12 PM ^
Any time any one of these 3 has single coverage and arm punt should be an option. It won't nearly fix all of the woes on offense but it should be tried more often than it currently is with these guys.