Sam Webb's Gut Tells Him the Staff Believes Ambry Thomas is Blue
One more quick recruiting note on Ambry Thomas dropped by Sam Webb this morning on WTKA.
I am mostly sharing this because I see all of these comments from various depressed or concerned mgousers stating their feelings about him being a "silent" to MSU.
Important to note - Sam's "gut" does NOT say that Ambry Thomas is going to Michigan. What it is saying is that someone on the staff is telling him that they think they have Ambry Thomas locked up. As these various mgousers have mentioned numerous times, Michigan State also thinks they have Ambry Thomas locked up.
So what does this mean? This more than likely means that, as I have said before in previous comments, Sam's take on Ambry as this year's Lavert Hill is probably accurate. More than likely both sides will be fairly confident up until the time that he tells one of the staffs absolutely no (probably right before his decision date), but also more than likely this will go Michigan's way.
You may also be wondering why you should be so confident in Sam's gut/the coaching staff when all these MSU guys are saying the same thing. Well, as Sam Webb appropriately put it, "would you rather date Beyonce or Beyonce's back-up dancer" if you were Ambry Thomas. Look at MSU's record, guys. Look.
All of this is just further evidence that we should not be worrying right now. While this doesn't say Ambry is 100% going to Michigan, Michigan's staff sure thinks he's coming.
Link to today's podcast:
https://audioboom.com/posts/5264401-06-recruiting-roundup-110916?t=0
Edit: This is Sam's exact quote that resulted in this post.
"I mentioned earlier last week after the Michigan/Michigan State game that one of the [MSU] recruits thought they had a couple silent commits.. Who is he talking about? And I said at the time that they probably do count Ambry Thomas among the players that they think that they have albeit one not announced publicly. My gut tells me that that feeling is not unique to them. My gut tells me that this is a lot like the Lavert Hill recruitment...."
Again, you need to understand what his "gut" calls mean. They don't necessarily mean that a guy is going to commit, that a recruit told him that they're going to commit, or that it even has anything to do with recruiting. What it does mean is that he has been told something (whether regarding recruiting, the current team, whatever it may be) by a legitimate deep inside source that he takes 100% confidence in. So when he says "my gut tells me that feeling is not unique to them [MSU]," he is saying that someone told him that he fully trusts that Michigan thinks similarly about Ambry Thomas to what MSU believes about him in that they both think he is going to commit to their school. And while that doesn't exactly say that "the staff told him" as I am insinuating, who else would tell him that the staff believes they have Ambry Thomas except for the staff? Who would know that information? Very very likely the staff itself. Either way, Sam's gut says that the staff thinks this way. Hence the post.
If I am inferring too much from this post, then I guess I'm being too detectivey. But I don't see how you can get any other conclusion from this quote. This was the first time anyone has ever explicitly stated that "the staff believes they are going to get Ambry Thomas" or something to that extent, so I found it thread worthy.
This is all I will add to the discussion.
November 9th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^
I'm expecting some angry negs with this one claiming a semi manipulative title, but that's exactly how Sam Webb stated it. It is what it is.
November 9th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^
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November 9th, 2016 at 4:59 PM ^
*Sigh*
The reason I say this is because a lot of people don't understand what his "gut feelings" really mean. See my comment below for further details. The title is correct.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:14 PM ^
think he's gonna choose them. But he has more incentive and reasons to go blue.
A little heads up, if you're gonna summarize Sam Webbs recruiting roundup, atleast be accurate in what you post.
Also, at no point did he state "that someone on the staff is telling him that they think they have Ambry Thomas locked up" You should listen to the podcast yourself
November 9th, 2016 at 10:56 PM ^
...to give total creedence to anything that an internal organ of a guy on the internet heard from someone on the coaching staff. Or Fivethirtyeight.com. Pretty much can't be misled in either case.
November 9th, 2016 at 6:10 PM ^
That's how I intepreted Webb's comments too. Additionally, he made kind of a big deal of the whole topic. He announced yesterday he was going to discuss Ambry today. I doubt he would have done that without having some good news or if his news was simple and straightforward.
November 9th, 2016 at 7:16 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^
That was a Boliviable offense? Man you're tough. I didn't even think it was a Panamable offense. Or really any type of Latin American offense.
November 9th, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^
but Bolivia, definitely not.
Completely agree with you.
November 9th, 2016 at 11:04 PM ^
Is there an internet Galapagos that I can be sent to for writing something untoward on this site?
November 9th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
Why on earth would he be sent to bolivia for this post?
November 9th, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^
And compare it to what he posted. You'll know then
November 9th, 2016 at 6:14 PM ^
I might have missed it.
November 9th, 2016 at 7:57 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 6:02 PM ^
It just is what it is Jerry.
November 9th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^
now i'm craving a gut bomb. anyone have a favorite burger joint in newport beach?
November 9th, 2016 at 5:44 PM ^
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November 9th, 2016 at 6:00 PM ^
meh... too plebeian... was thinking something more hoity toity...
November 9th, 2016 at 6:32 PM ^
Go to R+D Kitchen or Hop Doddy in Fashion Island. Beach Barrel is good for burgers and pizzas if you are on the peninsula.
I think the Cannery has a burger on their menu that is around $20.00. That place located right next to the water in Newport Harbor.
Forgot about Crow Burger. They have a nice selection of craft brews on tap.
November 9th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
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November 9th, 2016 at 7:07 PM ^
TK Burgers. Hands down.
November 9th, 2016 at 7:51 PM ^
That is a good one. Especially the Newport and Huntington ones have always had good looking staff.
November 9th, 2016 at 4:50 PM ^
Of course he is blue. The only positive he ever says for MSU is early playing time, but elite talents are rarely going to shy away from competition.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:01 PM ^
The spike in transfers would say otherwise
November 9th, 2016 at 5:12 PM ^
Spike in transfers away from UofM ? Please tell me who these elite players are who have left ? Maybe Cole, but that obviously was not about football.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
I think he means in general. Top talents certainly have transferred when faced with not starting. Blake Barnett this year, for example.
November 10th, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^
This^
November 9th, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^
One is avoiding stiff competition in the first place. The other is looking for a better opportunity after losing the battle for playing time or being told by the coach that you're no longer in it.
November 9th, 2016 at 6:01 PM ^
Which elite players have transferred?
November 9th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 4:56 PM ^
If you listen to the podcast, you will see that I worded it just as he said it. His "gut" just means "I have received major insider info from deep within the program that I trust with all certainty." He also had a "gut feeling" this summer that Rashan Gary was projected as a starter - it doesn't even have to have anything to do with recruiting.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:28 PM ^
Sam never said "I have received major insider info from deep within the program that I trust with all certainty" in that podcast
November 9th, 2016 at 5:54 PM ^
Sam has a relatively well known code. When he is expressing his opinion he always says (and emphasizes), "My opinion is..." When he says, "My gut tells me..." he's saying that he has information from someone on the inside. Depending on the situation "the inside" could mean a recruit (or their family), or someone inside the football program.
Sam has a longstanding relationship with Coach Wheatley, so that's likely his source inside the program.
November 9th, 2016 at 6:11 PM ^
"gut feeling" and his "opinion". My point is if you listen to the podcast and compare it to what was posted, it's different. Also, no where in the podcast did Sam say the Beyonce quote.
November 9th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^
Apologies, when you said, "Sam never said..." I took it literally.
November 9th, 2016 at 7:22 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 9:04 PM ^
You're failing to discern which part was his quoting of Sam and which part was his interpretation of Sam and which part was his own assessment of how a recruit must look at things, as far as the Beyonce analogy goes.
November 9th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^
I'd rather date Beyonce's back-up dancer. I'm not trying to get in a fight with Jay-Z. Dude has like 99 problems, and I really don't want to be one of them.
November 9th, 2016 at 4:56 PM ^
You wouldn't have a problem with him. Jay-Z explicitly said a bitch ain't one.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:00 PM ^
November 10th, 2016 at 6:35 AM ^
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November 9th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 5:09 PM ^
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November 9th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^
Jaylen Kelly-Powell has been doing that basically all year, I am not sure about Ambry Thomas though. As someone else mentioned, he wore one UM one MSU glove the other week... Looked atrocious.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:01 PM ^
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November 9th, 2016 at 5:06 PM ^
The Bey/backup dancer example is a BAD comparison. There is a "game theory" (theory of economics) that dating the backup dancer is actually the RIGHT pick. Someone with an actual economics degree can correct this, but...
The idea is, a total hottie (Bey) walks into a bar w/ 3 of her-hot-but-not-Bey-hot backup dancers. A guy at the bar who really wants to maximize his score will hit on one of the backup dancers, b/c odds are much higher of a score than the home-run on Bey -- given higher competition for her, and if he gets turned down, her winggirls might turn him down too.
I mean, let's get honest, dating Bey would mean always being way down on her list of things she cares about; constantly fighting for her attention; massive competition from every other male alive (putting Jay Z to the side for this hypothetical); always being known as "Bey's boyfriend" (not her being your girl); and that relationship is, let's face it, gonna end pretty quick anyway. Now, a relationship with her dancer, that might get REAL, ya know.
All that said... Thomas still should totally pick UM.
November 9th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 5:24 PM ^
November 9th, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^
My policy is to only follow advice when it rhymes.
E.g.
-- No pain, no gain.
-- Wrap it before you tap it.
-- If it doesn't fit, you must acquit.