I was messing around with the RPI Wizard found here -
Interesting tool as you can project wins and losses. Just for fun I put Michigan in as winning out and it reported an RPI of 16 if that happened. Sure would be nice, but it also predicts that chance at 3.54%. One loss is a 15.27% probablity, two losses a 29.36% probability, three losses at 29.35% probability, and four losses a 16.15% probability. The following are the remaining games followed by the percentage chance at a win. I also ran the simulator for each single team as a loss so you could see which games have the biggest hit to RPI. No surprise that the home losses were the biggest hit. I did find it odd that the highest ranked team left on our schedule caused the biggest hit to our single loss RPI projection (OSU), but I can't really speak to how the wizard calculates its data.
|Ohio State (H)||25||63%|
|Penn State (A)||21||53%|
Then I ran a couple two loss scenarios, and a handful of three loss scenarios. When I get more time I will run some more scenarios to get a better picture. What I came up with in the few I ran was pretty much defend home court, finish at least 2-2 on the road, and we're looking at a 7 or 8 seed in the tourney.