Rose Bowl selection criteria if B1G champ goes to CFP
Comrades,
The scenario I outlined here for Michigan to play in the Rose Bowl remains intact:
- Michigan upsets OSU
- OSU goes to the playoff (by winning the B1G championship)
- Wisconsin beats Minnesota, or Minnesota beats Wisconsin but loses to OSU (guaranteeing there is no other one-loss B1G team)
Under this scenario, there is a three- or four-way tie for second place in the B1G, depending on the outcome of Wisconsin-Minnesota. (Michigan and Penn State are the other 2-loss teams.) While the Rose Bowl typically takes the second-higest-ranked B1G team in the CFP rankings if the conference champion goes to the CFP, the Tournament of Roses website specifies that the Rose Bowl is not required to take the second-highest-ranked team if a group of teams is in a "cluster":
“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.
In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical matchups.
It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team.
Michigan will likely be the second-highest-ranked team anyway, if it beats OSU and OSU wins the championship game.
All of this to say: Michigan has a lot to play for on Saturday!
November 26th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
That's a good plan right there.
The offense just needs to keep running the touchdown play, and the defense just needs to keep running the stop play, while sometimes switching to the turnover play.
November 26th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
Playing for a possible Rose Bowl berth.
Just like the old days.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
I would be happy with the Rose bowl appearance. Frankly, I think the artificial college football playoff is a bit of a joke. Too subjective. Not enough teams for an accurate reflection of a true national champion in my humble opinion. Go blue!
November 26th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
I agree with that editorial that came out a few weeks back which said the CFP has ruined the fun in college football and the bowl season.
November 26th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
To be entirely honest, I am not sure if my opinion of that would change if Michigan made the playoff. The way they have structured the College Football Playoff is beyond ridiculous. You have from November 28 to January 1 to work with to build toward a National Championship Game and make New Years Day literally a thing of complete beauty. So let me get this straight, instead of playing the semi-final games on any of those five Saturdays, you wait over a month to play semi final games and then have the title game on ...... January 13? Two weeks after the semi-final games.
And you often try to stick to convention and have the CFP semi-finals on a Saturday at kind of regular college football times, and then for the national title game, you stick it on a Monday with kickoff close to 9PM? I'm sorry but that is just incredibly dumb. Is anybody outside of the fan bases of the two teams that are playing going to care about that game?
Of course if Michigan was in the Playoff I would care more, but I don't think I would think it was any less stupid. The College Football Playoff feels like season 8 of Game of Thrones. For 14 weeks college football is spectacular and engaging and personal and hits all the right notes of great drama, and then the CFP comes and nothing makes sense and everything just starts exploding. It sucks because it is my favorite sport by far, but they have made such an absolute mess of the post-season that it is hard for it not to impact my perception of it altogether.
But the Rose Bowl has always been awesome. Give me the Rose Bowl, that is absolutely fine with me.
November 26th, 2019 at 11:50 PM ^
I don't know if it's been a joke. The reason for making a 4 team playoff is to make sure the top 2 teams have a chance to win the National Championship. And it's done that. There's been years before the CFP that there was real question that the 2 best teams played each other for the National Championship. I haven't agreed with their 4 in every year the CFP has been in existence. I think each year they've gotten 3 right, but a 4th has always been wrong. But each year they have had the top 2 teams among the 4 they pick.
November 26th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
From the OP:
In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical matchups.
I love how they include all kinds of factors, EXCEPT the obvious one: how many fans from said school are likely to show up. You know that's a factor.
November 26th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
Does a Rose Bowl ever not sell out? I mean it'd likely increase the secondary ticket market, but I'd think if Minnesota or Wisconsin went there probably wouldn't be empty seats either.
November 26th, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
I know a couple schools have had issues over the years - Washington State in 2002, Oregon in 2011, Florida State in 2014 - returned some of their allotted tickets and the overall attendance was down a few thousand from usual.
I can't imagine that would be a problem in 2019 with any of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Utah or Oregon --- well, maybe Oregon --- but overall fan support is still a part of the Rose Bowl's calculus, if they're being honest.
November 26th, 2019 at 9:02 PM ^
It’s not tickets
it’s ratings
brands e.g. Michigan sell
Minnesota? Not so much
November 26th, 2019 at 2:52 PM ^
I know haha -- They should just be blunt and say they will pick the school with the more prestigious athletic program that more people will be interested in watching on t.v.
November 26th, 2019 at 6:42 PM ^
Until a better system is put into place, it's about winning all your games. We have yet to have 4 undefeated teams at the end of the season. As long as teams continue to at least have 1 loss, there will always be debate. Now Clemson and their schedule this year is worthy of another debate. So is the SEC and chicken shit Saturday.
November 26th, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^
It’s the highest ranked B1G team stupid
November 26th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
If Michigan beats OSU I am 100% certain Michigan would get selected for the Rose Bowl. Because OSU is not losing two in a row and Michigan would easily be the highest ranked of the cluster teams.
November 26th, 2019 at 6:53 PM ^
Hypothetical 11-2 Minnesota is the biggest threat to hypothetical 10-2 Michigan for Rose Bowl rights. Especially if Michigan narrowly beats OSU and Minnesota narrowly loses to OSU.
In all fairness, it would be hard to fault Minnesota for losing an "extra" championship game Michigan didn't even play and narrowly lose a game on a neutral field that Michigan narrowly won at home. Especially since an 11-2 Minnesota would have beaten the two teams that Michigan lost to, and their 2nd loss came from a team that Michigan never played.
November 26th, 2019 at 8:58 PM ^
TV ratings Michigan or Minnesota
Right!
November 27th, 2019 at 9:26 AM ^
Their second loss did come from a team that UM played and beat, Iowa.
November 27th, 2019 at 12:07 AM ^
If Minnesota beats Wisconsin they will end up ranked higher than Michigan if Michigan beats Ohio St. And they would deserve it. They would have beaten bot teams that Michigan lost to. That sounds fair. Or no?
Switch the tables and look. What If Minnesota had 2 losses, and Michigan had 1 loss, and beat both teams that Minnesota lost to? Would it be fair that Minnesota was ranked higher than Michigan?
So you'd say, yeah but if Minnesota loses to Ohio St and Michigan beats Ohio St, what then?
Michigan vs Ohio St is a rivalry, probably the biggest rivalry in the United States. Pulling off a rivalry upset is a little different. Isn't they?
I wish Michigan could be in the Rose Bowl. But I'm not expecting it. There's too many moving parts working against Michigan. I think Minnesota has the inside track. Then Wisconsin. Then Penn St. After that Michigan. Maybe I would put Michigan before Penn St. But I'm just not sure I can even do that.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
If Minnesota manages to beat Wisconsin they're going to have a pretty convincing case no matter what Michigan does. Same number of losses, division winner, probably ranked in the same "range", and hasn't played in the Rose Bowl since 1962.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^
Agree with this. Feels like inviting Minnesota is the right thing to do in that scenario.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
I don't know. If Michigan were to beat Ohio, that would be a pretty convincing reason to send Michigan instead of Minnesota.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
If Michigan upsets OSU, and Minnesota loses to OSU, that'll be fresh in the Rose Bowl committee's minds as to whom to invite.
November 26th, 2019 at 10:08 PM ^
If Michigan beats OSU and 11-2 Minnesota loses a close game (less than 10 points) to OSU then I think Minny goes to the RB. And that would not be fair because Michigan played the tougher schedule. But I don't see Minnesota losing a close game to OSU. I think they'll get beat by at least 20 points.
November 26th, 2019 at 10:36 PM ^
But that also means that Minnesota would've beaten the 2 schools (PSU, Wisconsin) which beat Michigan.
November 26th, 2019 at 11:20 PM ^
But Michigan would’ve also beaten the two schools that beat Minny (Iowa, OSU).
November 27th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
Touché
November 26th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
I also think it would be good to not punish teams for playing an extra game. Minnesota would finish the season at 11-1 compared to Michigan at 10-2. Of course a 10-2 Michigan with a win over OSU is probably ranked higher than an 11-1 Minnesota.
I think Michigan is probably rooting for Wisconsin in that game though if your goal is rose bowl
November 26th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
But you're fine punishing a team for playing a tough schedule (which is good for college football) and for playing in a much tougher conference?
Point is, 11-1 with Minnesota's schedule isn't even as impressive as 10-2 with Michigan's schedule. It won't even be close. Michigan is 9th right now in strength of record, Minnesota is 12th. That gap would open wider if Michigan beats a better team than Minnesota plays this week. Minnesota shouldn't (and won't) be ahead of Michigan if both win this week.
So you wouldn't be punishing them for playing another game. They get a chance to move up and if they lose, they stay behind Michigan where they will be before the game.
Rote adherence to ranking teams based solely on record without any context contributes to watered down scheduling and makes college football less fun. The Rose Bowl, the CFP committee, any subjective decision makers should absolutely not punish teams for playing tough games, and they should be rewarding them.
November 26th, 2019 at 6:22 PM ^
Can't gloss over the fact that Minnesota, if finishing 11-1 regular season, also would have beaten both teams that beat Michigan (yes, and Michigan also beat Iowa, which beat Minnesota).
Its a lot closer than you think, especially if both teams win this weekend. You like to bring up Schedule, well then, lets face it, who the hell has Ohio State really beaten, 1 good team in Penn State, that's it. And like it or not, Penn State exposed them a bit and gave a blue print on how to win.
Say Michigan Wins a close game, 24-21 but Minnesota boat races Wisconsin 38-13 or something like that...Does that justify moving Michigan up over Minnesota? Both have 15 wins, both played at home, One barely won their game while the other kicked the shit out of their opponent...And then there is always going to be that fact if Minnesota blows the doors of Wisconsin: Wisconsin kicked the ever loving shit out of Michigan.
Minnesota is a damn good football team this year and they have proven in on the field. They are every bit as good as we are right now, and its niave to think otherwise.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
Minnesota's lackluster non conference should be held against them. Michigan on the other hand has a blowout non conference win over a team that will finish in the top 15. And OSU would by far be the best win either team has. Essentially UM would have the two best wins between the two teams if ND finishes higher than Wisky. Also the reality is while Minny could probably fill the stadium fine there is no way in hell they could draw the ratings UM would. I don't think the Rose Bowl committee wants to have a potential matchup of Minny versus Oregon/Utah that you could argue has limited national viewing appeal with both teams involved. I could easily see a Minny/Utah matchup drawing some of the worst ratings of any rose bowl. These bowl games have already lost a little bit of their appeal with the playoff, last thing the rose bowl committee wants is a headline about how horrible the ratings were.
Also the wording is that they would strongly prefer the highest ranked team and I think with a win UM would 100% end up higher than PSU and Minnesota. Seems to me if the committee wanted to go against the guideline they have, it would be the exact opposite situation where they want to keep a team out that either won't travel well or tank the ratings.
November 26th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
I don't disagree with you, I think there is a lot of justification to rank a 10-2 Michigan over an 11-1 Minnesota. I just don't think if Minnesota is ranked above Michigan on sunday they should drop below Michigan at 11-2 after the championship game.
November 26th, 2019 at 6:42 PM ^
There seems to be a bit of a question regarding who has the most worthy group of sporting lads.
Let us schedule a scrum with them to settle it.
I'd also advise you to bring a stout water vessel for I suspect their sources are impure.
November 27th, 2019 at 12:22 AM ^
So if Minnesota beats both teams Michigan lost to they should be ranked lower than Michigan?
November 26th, 2019 at 6:55 PM ^
November 26th, 2019 at 10:41 PM ^
You mean 5-6 Army? Or barely beating 4-7 MTSU? Let's face it. Our OOC schedule didn't really turn out to be a bunch of world beaters.
November 26th, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^
Depends on how badly they'd lose in the BTCG game. If Minnesota acquits itself well and makes a game out of it with OSU, then yeah, the right thing to do would be to give Minnesota the nod.
If they get run out of the building and the game is something like 52-3, I'm not sure they'd get the invite. A NY6 game? Absolutely. But I think in that scenario, either PSU goes if Michigan loses this Saturday, or Michigan goes if they find a way to win.
November 26th, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
Except national TV ratings which is all that matters
got to sell ad space. Minnesota or Michigan
sorry goldy
November 27th, 2019 at 12:12 AM ^
Same number of losses,
But more wins. Why isn't anyone talking about the number of wins? Wins don't count? Only loses count in this scenario?
November 27th, 2019 at 6:06 AM ^
And one more win
November 26th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
It seems like a win and in situation. OSU isn't losing to either Wisconsin or Minn.
November 26th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
I'm a lifelong Michigan fan, but if Minnesota beats Wisconsin, they need to be in the Rose Bowl.
Period.
November 26th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
Why exactly? You could make a case for any of three teams. The reality is in that situation the Rose Bowl committee would probably go with the team that is higher ranked and also would maximize both ticket sales and tv ratings.
November 26th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
Not true.
Minny would have won a division. No one else can say that.
11-1 regular season. No one else can say that either.
Longest absence from Pasadena. While this isn't everything, it isn't nothing either.
Case closed.
November 26th, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
And Michigan could say they have by far the best win of any of the three teams and a non conference win over a top 15 team to boot. The fact that you think it is a closed case is funny. And if you're debating whether the Rose Bowl committee does indeed care about ratings I don't know what to tell you. A Minny/Utah game would literally have no national appeal.
November 26th, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
I'm not saying it's a closed case. I'm saying it should be a closed case.
If Minny beats Wisky and doesn't go to the RB, this would be the equivalent of us being passed over for Alabama in the CFP one year because "SEC"
November 26th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^
It actually wouldn't because there would be merit to Michigan being selected beyond just ratings. Like I said they would have the two most impressive wins, a win against OSU and a beatdown of another top 15 non conference team. Why you want to discount that just because Minnesota wins a weaker division is strange. Both arguments have their merits and in that case the Rose Bowl committee is going to select the team that won't tank ratings.
November 26th, 2019 at 5:00 PM ^
You also have to take into account the recency factor that helped OSU get into the first playoff despite losing early to Va Tech. Michigan's loss to Wisconsin would be game 3 and PSU loss would be game 7. On the other hand Minn loses to Iowa in their 10th game and gets two losses in the last month of their season.
November 27th, 2019 at 12:25 AM ^
It actually wouldn't because there would be merit to Michigan being selected beyond just ratings
To Michigan fans yes. To who else outside that?
November 27th, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^
Better strength of schedule, the most impressive win either team has if they beat OSU and an actual win worth a damn in non conference. Not sure what is so hard to comprehend about that.