Pick 'Em: Penn State has 51.2% chance of making playoffs; Ohio State 42.5%; Wisconsin 14.0%
Put your picks here and claim glory on December 3, 2017, when your picks are correct.
"These probabilities are not about the best team. These numbers reflect which teams end the season in the committee’s top 4, and this depends on schedule."
More here on the odds in the subject heading: https://thepowerrank.com/2017/10/31/college-football-playoff-probabilit…
October 31st, 2017 at 9:26 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 1:13 AM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:29 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:31 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:34 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:50 PM ^
Ehh and choosing OSU last year partially had to do with them sending ̶l̶u̶c̶k̶i̶e̶s̶t̶ ̶t̶e̶a̶m̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶r̶ conference champ MSU and getting shutout. (Yes I realize there was a lot of other factors, but "eye test" was stressed a lot because of how badly the B1G champ had played the year prior).
Not sure what they do this year. They seem to change what they weigh the highest from year to year.
November 1st, 2017 at 12:09 AM ^
at least, not with a weight on recent performance. OSU stumbled to the finish line barely beating MSU (a terrible, 3-9 MSU I might add) and got lucky to beat us at home.
I completely agree that they seem to shift what they value a little bit each year. 2014 was conference championships and finishing strong, and they were vindicated when their controversial 4th team that finished strong but didn't have the best resume won it all. Then the next year they seemed to value head-to-head the most by putting MSU in over OSU, despite OSU being the clearly better team. Then last year they went with overall resume, and discounted head-to-head bit.
November 1st, 2017 at 7:17 PM ^
I think that 2015 team of cheaters would've won it all again. They took it easy on the irish in the sugar bowl or whatever the hell it was. Those two have always had a hard-on for eachother. All those good not great teams between them and they only have played eachother six times? Chicken shits. Hey, we're a bunch of candy asses and we both hate Michigan. Should we scheme and recruit against them every year? Fricking losers.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:48 PM ^
We'll see if they advance both Alabama and Georgia after the SEC championship game.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:51 PM ^
Look, I'm not rooting for Penn State. But the theory is they get in the same way that Ohio State got in last year.
October 31st, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
Like OSU last year but without a single signature win.
I think Penn State would need to be the second B1G team in if they don't somehow win the conference. They need a lot of help either way.
October 31st, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
OSU beat #7 Oklahoma and #6 Michigan and #8 Wisconsin as of the final regular season poll last year. Whereas PSU beat...us and MSU this year? Neither of which looks likely to be a top 10 win right now.
And the B1G champion had 2 losses. What's the scenario that matches that second part? Wisconsin loses to us and Iowa, but beats OSU? Or OSU loses to us and has 2 losses but wins the B1G. And PSU gets in anyway even after OSU has beaten PSU, MSU and WI while PSU beat....us and MSU? The loss totals might match last year's scenario but it's not comparable because of the lack of good wins for PSU relative to what OSU had last year. They're not winning a beauty pageant over OSU.
Basically, they need OSU to lose 2 out of 3. Which you never know, with @Iowa and MSU as well as us. Regardless, that wouldnt be the scenario of last year, it would be a B1G championship as a 1 loss team.
November 1st, 2017 at 8:19 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 8:15 AM ^
Unless PSU somehow makes it to the B1G Championship Game, they won't have any "good" wins on their resume. It's possible (depending on what happens to UM and MSU) that they won't have any Top 25 wins. That could make it tough (or impossible) for them.
November 1st, 2017 at 2:01 PM ^
I think Penn State getting destroyed by Michigan last year made their conference championship look flukier and get discredited.
This year, OSU's only loss so far was early and to a good OOC team. If they win the conference, it won't be a fluke - PSU was their only serious challenge in conference play.
The only way I can see PSU going ahead of OSU to the playoff is if (fingers crossed) Michigan beats OSU. A one loss PSU might be reasonably more attractive than a two loss conference champion.
October 31st, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
If you have a 2+ loss Big XII Champ (possible), a 2+ loss Pac-12 Champ (likely), and a 2+ loss Notre Dame (possible) ........ the committee may have a difficult time justifying NOT taking a 2nd team from the ACC, Big Ten, or SEC.
I'll believe the "2 teams from the same conference make it" when I see it ..... politics play a role inside that selection room, of course.
But that's the road from the PSU POV: win-out, hope for the above, while also getting a Georgia loss at Auburn (and loss to Alabama in the SEC title game).
November 1st, 2017 at 1:23 AM ^
and you're right, that UGA at Auburn game is big for them.
Very good chance this year there is a two loss champ or a second team from one conference in the playoff because of all the cannibalization in the PAC12 and Big12. The winner of those conferences is highly likely to have 2+ losses. And ND is somewhat likely to finish with two losss with two tough road games upcoming.
And then it'd be between PSU, loser of SEC championship (if both have one loss) and a 2 loss conference champ.
November 1st, 2017 at 1:15 AM ^
probably was thrown off a bit by OSU making it last year under those circumstances. I agree that PSU getting in is a lot less likely than 51%, but it's certainly not impossible.
November 1st, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^
Because the most important factor (by a mile) as to who makes the Playoff is simple win-loss record and Penn State has a better shot at ending up 11-1 than Ohio State does. Moreover, Ohio State also gets the short end of the stick of likely going to Indy to play a Wisconsin team that is capable of winning that game.
Also, I don't get why people think the Committee "learns" anything year to year. They do the same thing as the AP Poll, but pretend it's more thought out. The members also change, so it's impossible for the group to learn from year to year.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:35 PM ^
I got Georgia, Penn State, Clemson, and Oklahoma.
Edit, I just reallised the poster is right, OSU's loss was out of conference, they would have to lose twice and theres no way that is happeneing. That being said I have us beating them which is why i put psu in the first time.
Now I would say Geaorgia, Clemson Oklahoma and Notre Dame
October 31st, 2017 at 9:37 PM ^
Penn State has the easiest remaining schedule of major playoff contenders. They play at Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska and at Maryland. Their smallest win probability is 74.5% at Michigan State.
I didn't realize that the last third of Penn State's schedule shoule be - for them as they are playing now - like a cakewalk. Yikes.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:46 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:52 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 10:00 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 10:11 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 10:31 PM ^
No out-of-conference games. Just jump right into the conference schedule. Let the out-of-conference questions be settled in the playoffs.
Only thing I'd change is make it 32 teams rather than 64.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:57 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 1:13 AM ^
I could care less (but not much less) what happens with OSU, as long as we beat them.
November 1st, 2017 at 1:29 AM ^
could you care?
November 1st, 2017 at 6:02 AM ^
that every time when someone says "I could care less" that it is said sarcastically; that way, it works the way you want it to, and you don't have to post anything about it.
:)
November 1st, 2017 at 4:39 AM ^
To the point of not caring at all?
October 31st, 2017 at 10:11 PM ^
They’d say the same thing if they were in our position. This has now become a one game season.
November 1st, 2017 at 1:28 AM ^
There is no way they'd just say, eh, yeah they can win the conference. They (rightfully) root against us in any situation that doesn't directly impact them as should we.
Shame on you for not caring.
November 1st, 2017 at 8:44 AM ^
I'm still not sure how people don't quite understand this. OSU is the best team in this conference. Them staying good nationally until we can start knocking them off IS super important to us. There were talks of us possibly getting a playoff birth at the end of 2015 (prior to playing OSU, if we beat OSU) that never would've happened of OSU hadn't won it all the year before.
IF PSU/MSU ever wins a national championship our recruiting is going to take such a bad hit. OSU is already at saturation, they won't recruit any better.
Us beating undefeated OSU >>>>>>>>>>> us beating a 1 loss OSU.
If OSU is in the playoffs then OSU winning the NC is so much better for us than any other team winning the NC.
It makes my stomach hurt but OSU winning every game that they play that isn't against Michigan is the best thing for Michigan that OSU can do.
November 1st, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
I understand this line of reasoning but I take the opposite approach. I would like to see dumpster-fire OSU. An OSU that is stuck in rebuilding mode like every other blue blood program goes through. Miami, USC, Texas, Michigan - we have all have gone through it, but somehow OSU has one down year and then gets Urban and is better than before. Even Bama had years in the early 2000s when they were trying to figure things out before Saban came to town.
In my view Michigan is a big enough brand that we can stand on our own regardless of how good or bad OSU is. If we are undefeated Big 10 champs we will make the playoffs 99% of the time.
November 1st, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^
Yeah I've been to Ohio. I lived there for two years. And honestly, since Michigan's Big Ten title hopes are a virtual impossibility, and OSU is almost all but guaranteed to make it to Indy (they're not losing twice before the end of the season, take that to the bank), all I really care about is beating them.
Say whatever you want, but this is now a one-game season. We beat them, and it almost doesn't matter what happens the rest of the way for them. Guaranteed no playoff, no national title. Sure, they may still win the Big Ten, but their season would be feel so hollow no matter the outcome in the Big Ten title and whatever bowl they draw. Sure, it would be great to see them lose the rest of their games, and yes, I'd rather that that outcome happens. But it's not going to happen. They'll probably be double-digit favorites in every game they play up until whatever bowl game / semi-final they draw.
I know plenty of OSU fans who would feel the same way, so I don't think you're in any position to speak on behalf of all OSU fandom.
November 1st, 2017 at 2:41 PM ^
So in that hypothetical, let's say we beat them, but they still win the division and play Wisconsin in Indy.
You will not care if they win that game? You will be indifferent?
You're not a very good Michigan fan if you wouldn't want Wisconsin to win that game. And by that I mean, you wouldn't be rooting for an event that is bad for M's rival and that indirectly helps Michigan's ability to recruit against them (however marginally small the effect is).
Also, if we beat OSU and they still win the title, they aren't necessarily out of playoff. Watch how many other contenders lose. Good chance there is a two loss conference champ, and OSU could be it.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
As an OSU fan, I can answer how I would feel, though i don't speak for all OSU fans. If the situations were reversed, all I would care about is beating Michigan, assuming Michigan couldn't win the NC, which is the case here. In that scenario, beating Michigan and spoiling their NC hopes, I couldn't care less about the rest, whether it be a B1G title, bowl win, or whatever. So I understand that mindset from your end.
October 31st, 2017 at 10:18 PM ^
...they beat Wisc at randall, descisively.....clobber OSU at home, Peters plays really well and the defense learns to cover the backside of their aggressiveness.
No reason why we might not be considered the best b1g representative.
Of course, they might just leave the b1g out in that case.
November 1st, 2017 at 8:50 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 1:34 AM ^
so fuck every season, maybe.
Call me crazy but I'm still rooting for Iowa and (ugh) MSU this weekend. If they both win, we wouldn't be that far away from controlling our own destiny in the conference. Both are decent teams at home. Crazier things have happened.
November 1st, 2017 at 8:40 AM ^
Problem with that scenario is that in a projected 4 way tie-breaker at 6-2, Michigan would be 1-2 head-to-head, whereas MSU and OSU would be 2-1 in that scenario.
Whittling it down to a three-way tiebreaker between us, OSU, and PSU makes the picture a little rosier, although we're still probably screwed because the next tie-breaker is record within divsion, where we come up short again.
Our best chance is for us to find ourselves in a tie with OSU alone, which means PSU and MSU both have to lose two more games. MSU, that's probably a good bet. PSU, not so much.
November 1st, 2017 at 2:53 PM ^
we wouldn't be that far from controlling our own destiny, and would only need a couple more things to happen (after the scenario in which OSU and PSU lose this weekend). Like you said, MSU has a decent chance to still end up with 3 losses, so then we'd just need PSU to lose to Rutgers, Nebraska or Maryland. Far crazier things have happened.
October 31st, 2017 at 9:48 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
I think it best to keep 3rd graders away from PSU.