OT: Update - now on verge of most historic upset pro champ ever
Author's note: This is about soccer. If you find the subject-matter distasteful, please move along. But if you are a SPORTS fan, even if you don't follow soccer, you SHOULD read this.
With the Tottenham Hotspurs (at home) "drawing" (=tying) West Brom Albion 1-1 today, England's Premier League is now on the verge of the MOST AMAZING sports championship just about EVER.
First-place Leicester City Foxes are 7 points clear with only 3 games remaining in the season. At 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw (=tie), the only way Tottenham can catch LC is if LC loses at least one and either loses or draws (=ties) the other two, AND Tottenham wins all three.
In other words -- Leicester needs only ONE WIN in its last 3 games to win the title.
THIS IS JUST ABOUT UNPRECEDENTED. Consider:
- With 9 games to go last year, LC was in last place, facing "relegation" to the next-lower division (confusingly called the Championship) (although that's not as confusing as the next-next-lower tier, the 3d tier in England called--wait for it--the First Division). LC went on to win 7 of their last 9 to stave off relegation, and they just didn't stop winning.
- They were famously 5000-to-1 at the start of this year to win the Premier League. That's the same odds you can get for Christmas being the warmest day in the UK of the year, or Chloe Kardashian being elected president in 2020. (Although...)
- No team outside of five has won the Premier League since its inception just over 20 years ago. IIRC no team outside of a cabal of six teams has gotten close, for that matter. And by "close" I mean top 5.
- The cost to LC to assemble its ENTIRE team (through "transfer fees") is about $50 million -- which is less than the cost of the transfer fees for some INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS on their heavyweight competitors like Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, etc. The entire salary base of LC is a small fraction of the top teams.
- None of LC's top players this year were on any major team's radar -- ever. Their top goal scorer, James Vardy, is 29 and was in much lower divisions until the last couple of years. Their best player (and just voted this year's POTY for the entire League), Mahrez, was plucked out of a 2d-tier French team. Their captain, Morgan (see what I did there), was considered a washed-up never-has-been. Now -- Vardy, Mahrez, and their top defensive midfielder Kante will all command "massive" transfer fees this summer. (Although Vardy's age could be an issue for him.)
- European soccer is not designed to ensure parity -- it's designed to ensure the Haves keep what they have. No draft (it's a free-for-all to sign and develop players.) No mandatory minimum on salaries. No maximum on salaries (although recently you can't spend more than you earn...but when you earn 30X as much as another team....)
There is literally no equivalent in the US pro leagues, for sure. Mandatory salary minimums, the draft, etc. make even unlikely champions not all that totally unlikely -- the moneyball A's, the 'Greatest Show on Turf' Rams, etc.
TUNE IN if you can. Just watch the spectacle of LC possibly winning the most unlikely, unpredictable championship, EVER.
But while they need just one win, LC's 3 games remaining aren't joke-easy games. Next up is an away game at Manchester United, who while not their best ever team, is in 5th place. Then comes a home game against Everton, who again isn't having their best season but they have plenty of ability to score (defending is their problem). Finally they'd be on the road at defending champ Chelsea, who is having a VERY sub-par season. But if LC were to lose the next two and have to win at Chelsea, the pressure will be unbelievable.
Chelsea might still have something to say beforehand, however. Chelea and Tottenham are both London teams, and thus arch rivals. Tottenham plays Chelsea this weekend. So even if Man United beats LC... if Chelsea beats Tottenham, it's OVER. Chelsea players are already quoted as saying they want to stop their rival from winning the title, so this weekend's Chelsea-Spurs game could be a bloodbath. In a good-to-watch sort of way.
Seriously -- if you made a movie about this, nobody would have believed it. Except Cubs fans like myself, possibly.
Sad note to Gunners fans: Frankly, I don't care about Arsenal either way. (I would point out, though, you do have a Frenchman for a manager.) Anyway, it's fun to tease Arsenal fans, and once again, we can point out, a year in which Man United, and Man City, and Chelsea all SUCK... you STILL can't win the title.
Lie-chester I thought
I've always found it interesting that american sports operate in a communist system. Where as sports leagues around the world, including the EPL are very much a meritocracy.
Well, sort of. Having a super-rich sugar daddy helps a lot. Chelsea and Man City got a whole lot better when petro-billionnaires took them over.
Incidentally, Leicester is owned by a huge Thai conglomerate (King Power) and has increased its budget a fair amount since the takeover, though not on the scale of the above-mentioned clubs.
I'm talking about how the leagues operate. American sports: shared revenue/expenses, unions, worst teams get better draft picks. If you suck in the EPL they don't hand you a nice draft pick and shared revenue.
True. But with no salary cap other than "financial fair play" (which is riddled with exceptions), a super-rich owner helps a ton.
Because American leagues like the NFL are themselves businesses . . . businesses that compete with other leagues and entities for the entertainment dollar.
The NFL is more like a corporation with 32 divisions than it is a loose collection of 32 independent businesses.
It's not the Patriots competing with the Seahawks as businesses, its the NFL competing with MLB and NASCAR and whatever is on TV on Sunday afternoon.
The NFL is very Capitalist.
Truly amazing what they've done. This just doesn't happen in the BPL. Hope they win it and go for the treble next year.
BPL? Only Barclay's execs call it that.
My students must all work for Barclay's.
That does explain the grades...
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In terms of analogies to american sports, I would say imagine a college football scenario where the bottom B10 team went to the MAC (and top MAC team moved up). Now imagine the same thing happens at the bottom of the MAC with the Ohio valley conference (which includes the likes of UT Martin and Austin Peay). Its certainly possible that in one game some MAC squads, and maybe even Ohio Valley teams could upset a B10 team here and there - but imagine a scenario where Austin Peay actually was sitting in first place in the B10 with one game to play. Its completely unprecedented and insane.
On a side note, I think in any other year the fact that Bournemouth is sitting well above relegation would be a massive story in itself, but its been totally lost with Leicester.
Any other year -- I think West Ham would be the story of the year. Another one of the have-nots (although WHU has been pretty good recently) pushing for a top-5 finish and a berth in a European competition next year. They are 6th... falling off the pace of MC and MU. Same thing Newcastle did a few years ago, same thing Everton did a couple years ago, same thing Southampton did last year -- gets close but just falls short.
But if MU wins the FA Cup, and stays in 5th place, WHU still gets into Europa League next year as the 6th place team in the BPL. Although assuredly not with Dmitri Payet -- he's gonna get bought off by some monster offer.
On the other hand, it is pretty amazing what the foxes have accomplished. It'll be hard rooting for Arsenal.
COYS
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This has been a disastrous season for Arsenal. Picked early in the season to challenge for the league championship and possibly win a third consecutive FA Cup championship, Arsenal's limping down the stretch and could finish fifth or even sixth, missing their typical "top-four finish," and being "relegated" to Europa League play next season. (That's the second tier of European club competition or like those prelim/"kiddie table" debates that Republican Presidential candidates engaged in, for those who might not follow the sport.)
Despite my Arsenal fandom, I've never been able to root against Tottenham the way Michigan fans root against Ohio State and Michigan State; and in this disappointing season for Arsenal, at least they'll be able to say that they'll finish no worse than 4-3-3 against the five teams that could finish ahead of them in the final standings.
Now, if Arsenal somehow pulls off a miracle and finishes third by upsetting Manchester City and winning winnable games against 18th place Norwich City and 20th place Aston Villa, then they'll be able to finish with two wins and two draws in four matches against the top two teams in the league. So, like esteemed groundskeeper Carl Spackler, they'll be able to say that they've got that going for them, which is nice.
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April 26th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^
There will be next year for us. the chavs, both mancs and possibly the scum will have new managers and need to buy to fortify shakey squads.
EDIT: Whoosh, I'm an idiot. :)
LOL - I'm came close to responding to this too.
Glad I'm not the only one!
How - in a league so designed to keep the rich as the rich - could a team or no names win it all?
Chelsea and Manchester City, with possibly the biggest budgets this year, have plain sucked in relation to their talent pool. Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool (the rest of the Big Five) have sucked as well. Spurs and LCFC have been by far the most consistent teams. City, Chelsea and MUFC (possibly) will have new managers next year.
Chelsea has made my all-time dislike list for snaking Conte from Italy before he really coached anything.
With have the right manager and an off season to bring in more talent, top four for sure next year
First, the historical powers with the highest payrolls and largest transfer budgets have had years ranging from disappointing (Man City, Arsenal) to really disappointing (Manchester United) to catastrophic (Chelsea). That's opened up room at the top, and means that Leicester is probably going to win the league with a point total that would put them somewhere around 4th most years.
Second, Leicester has been, depending on your perspective, either incredibly savvy or incredibly lucky with a few of their signings. They signed Riyad Mahrez for about 400,000 pounds 2 years ago, and he just (deservedly) won the player of the year award by a mile (17 goals and 11 assists). He's probably worth around 40 million now. Their main striker is a 29 year old guy who was playing in the 7th division of English soccer a few years back but was a top 3 striker in the whole league this year. They signed a French midfielder for like 6 million who has been the best defensive midfielder in the league by a mile. Take away those three guys and they're way down the table.
Third, they've been lucky. The hot new statistical analysis in soccer is something called "expected goals," which measures how many goals you should have scored and given up given the number of shots you took and how good those shots were. They're running decently above expectation on that metric. They also won something like 6 games in a row by the score of 1-0 over the last 2 months, and had a couple of tight wins in games they were probably outplayed, including one at Tottenham (currently in second place).
Also Leicester has the son of one of the greatest keepers of all time, Peter Schmeichel, from Denmark.
Blow it at the worst possible times.
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I'm an MUFC fan, and so Sunday will be crazy. A buddy of mine, whose last name is Lester, has always been jokingly a Leicester City fan, but this year we all have jumped on the bandwagon because it's been so much fun for LCFC. Good luck to the Foxes!
Naturally the Cubs are brought up when people talk about perenial losers. LC has been playing for 132 years and has never won the title. The Cubs have "only" gone 108 without a title.
To boot, they decided to fire their manager in the off season...he who'd won 7 of 9 down the stretch to stave off relegation and then went with a very unpopular choice in Claudio Ranieri.
Ranieri was last seen bombing out with the Greek National Team.
It's JAMIE VARDY. Get to know that name, he is going to be playing for England this summer.
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He probably will - I wish Rashford would get a look, but not likely.
Darren Rovell had a tweet the other day that said the William Hill Sports Book was trying to buy out the 20 or so people who put big money on Leicester City winning the BPL.
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Dude. I've watched precisely zero EPL games in my life and even I can see how cool this is
Jamie Vardy dreamt of being a professional footballer, but at the age of 16 he was released from the youth academy of Sheffield Wednesday, a team now playing in the Championship. Nevertheless Vardy kept playing semi-professionally for minnows Stocksbridge Park Steels, a team in the seventh tier of English football. He would spend 7 years there, working 12-hour shifts at a factory to support himself and playing on the weekends for £30 a match.
After some impressive displays, he was signed by Halifax Town, a team then in the sixth tier. He finished as the league’s top goalscorer and helped his team win promotion before signing for Fleetwood Town, now in the fifth tier. Again he finished top scorer, and again he helped his team win promotion. His impressive performances got him a call from Leicester. Finally, in 2012, at the age of 25, when most players would expect to have a few years of experience behind them, Vardy could call himself a pro.
Vardy’s first season was poor, but in the 2013-14 season he paid off, and his 16 goals helped Leicester to get back into the Premier League. Early on in the next season, he turned in a man-of-the-match performance against Manchester United, scoring one goal and setting up the other four in that 5-3 win. Along with the rest of his team, he would fail to make a mark for the rest of the season, but came to life at the crucial moment, playing a key role in Leicester’s miraculous escape.
Like Leicester, Vardy got off to a blistering start to the 2015-16 season, scoring in the first match of the season. Failing to net in the next two games, he then scored again in the fourth match. And in the fifth. And in the sixth. Twice in the seventh. He scored again in the eighth. Twice in the ninth. And in the tenth. By the twelfth match of the season, Jamie Vardy, who five years earlier worked in a factory, was the top goalscorer of the most competitive league in the world, and he had now scored nine games in a row.
The Premier League record for goals scored in most consecutive matches, 10, had been set in 2002 by Manchester United legend Ruud van Nistelrooy, one of the greatest attacking players since the new millennium. Could Vardy match the great van Nistelrooy?
[Hint] He could: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUKsTmDjEb0
Having equaled the record, there was one more challenge left: could he BEAT the record? Well, what better opposition to go for the record than against Manchester United themselves?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot80PrLmkv0
Not that it matter's too much, but Vardy did all of this with a broken wrist.
Thanks for posting, this is an amazing story. I never thought I'd hear anything to rank with the Kurt Warner bagging-groceries-then-became-NFL-MVP-and-Super-Bowl-winner story, but this is at least as unlikely. Incredible.
Vardy is probably suspended for the Man U game for yelling at the referee after a red card