OT: Lions-Wolverines Draft Fits
The post about Blake got me thinking...are there any good fits from UM for the Lions?
Lions needs, in order: CB, Edge/DL (equally ranked at #2), OG, TE, WR. Could double up on CB and IOL players. Need pass rush specialists on the DL. A back-up TE would be great, along WR depth.
Based on this data, here is where Michigan prospects are expected to go in the draft, along with my take on their fit and whether they're likely to go O/U (under means a lower number draft pick, or higher pick) their current composite rank:
- 24 Rank J.J. McCarthy
QB | Projection: 1st Round - I'd bet my house on the under here. JJ is more likely to go in the top ten than in the 20s. He's not a fit for the Lions. Broncos, Raiders, Vikings, and even the Giants and Falcons are potential fits here. Seahawks, Rams, Steelers, and even the Saints are other teams to watch.
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51 Rank Kris Jenkins
DL | Projection: 2nd Round - First potential pick for the Lions. Detroit needs DL help, but Jenkins isn't exactly the right fit--I think the Lions need pass rush specialists or run-stopping specialists, and Jenkins isn't really either. He feels more like Alim McNeil and Levi. I'd also guess the over on this one, but I really don't know.
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55 Rank Roman Wilson
WR | Projection: 2nd Round - An amazing Senior Bowl performance moved Wilson from a 3rd-rounder to a 2nd. The Lions need another WR, IMO, but not this early. If Detroit trades down to get more picks, a late-2nd seem like a bargain, but I believe Wilson will be gone by then and I'll take the under.
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65 Rank Blake Corum
RB | Projection: 3rd Round - Do you believe you're going to get 2022 Blake, or 2023 Blake? Late season it looked like he'd finally found his old form. The Lions don't need a RB this high, and Corum's draft position probably depends more on when the run on RBs starts than anything. The O/U is tough here...I'll take the over, but just by a bit, and good testing could easily push Blake into round two.
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68 Rank Junior Colson
LB | Projection: 3rd Round - There aren't a lot of premium off-ball LBs in this draft class. Colson is one of them. Lions don't need LBs at all, but I believe scarcity at the position and Colson's testing will push him under pick 68.
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76 Rank Mike Sainristil
CB | Projection: 3rd Round - NOT a fit for the Lions who need outside CB help. That said, this another one I'd bet my house on (pending his 40 time) being under. He's been mocked as high as the early 2nd.
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98 Rank Zak Zinter
IOL | Projection: 3rd Round - Could have been OG1 if not for the injury. It's a strong OL class and, combined with the injury, I think the 98 is just about right. Late 3rd/Early 4th. I'd push on this O/U. The Lions need IOL help, but I wouldn't take Zinter with the Lions current picks until round 5 (Lions don't have a pick in round four).
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182 Rank Trevor Keegan
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Keegan would fit with the Lions with a 6th or 7th round pick. Push on O/U.
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188 Rank Drake Nugent
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Another player that could fit on the Lions, but his size may push him into round seven or even UDFA. I'll take the over here.
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192Rank A.J. Barner
TE | Projection: 6th Round - My favorite Lions pick. Detroit needs TE depth (when LaPorta was out the offense was considerably different) and a reliable #2. Barner can do that and is a great value in 6th/7th round. That said, I don't think he'll be there. Under.
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194 Rank Braiden McGregor
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - Another great fit for the Lions in late rounds. His testing could move him up a round or two. Great fit if he lasts this late. Under.
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203 Rank Jaylen Harrell
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - The jack-of-all-trades DE is not what the Lions need, but a team looking for solid EDGE depth will be thrilled to get Harrell late. Push on the O/U.
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204 Rank Ladarius Henderson
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Henderson is almost sure to move back to guard in the NFL. I don't think he fits the Lions vision for the position and would fit better on a more pass-happy team. Push on the O/U here.
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213 Rank Michael Barrett
LB | Projection: 6th Round - Lions don't need LBs. Barrett offers tremendous value as LB and ST player. He's one of those depth players that never gets a big contract but plays for 13 years. Push on the O/U.
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266 Rank Josh Wallace
CB | Projection: UDFA - I'd love the Lions to look at Wallace in round 7 if he runs 4.5 or better. I'll take the under on this one--I think he gets drafted.
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267 Rank Cornelius Johnson
WR | Projection: UDFA - I don't get this. I think Johnson will test well and teams will see that he's a very good player that simply didn't get a volume of opportunities. His contested catch rate is insane, he runs good routes, and he's a threat after the catch. I'd LOVE the Lions to get him in round 7 or as a UDFA. I'd even be okay picking him in round 6, depending on how the draft goes. Under.
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321 Rank Karsen Barnhart
OT | Projection: UDFA - I don't think Barnhart matches what the Lions want here. I also don't think he'll get drafted.
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441 Rank Trente Jones
OT | Projection: UDFA - An intriguing talent, I'd LOVE the Lions to get Jones on a UDFA contract. His limited tape is very strong and he might sneak into the draft--it only takes one team and there's a lot to like from a traits perspective. I'm not confident he gets drafted, so the rank is a little strange, but I think he's definitely better than player 441.
There you have it. Currently have 14 players expected to be drafted, and I think two more will make it in. Some good late round fits for the Lions. GO BLUE!
February 27th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
When you referenced “fits”, my impression was in a negative context - as in “fits and starts”.
It’s going to be humorous watching the Chicago Bears figure things out this draft.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:37 PM ^
Which is to say they won't figure anything out, and it will be humorous
February 27th, 2024 at 2:03 PM ^
The Bears are somehow going to draft 3 QBs in the top 12 over 3 years and possibly wind up with nothing to show for it.
February 27th, 2024 at 3:51 PM ^
I have been so fed up with the Bears for seemingly decades, but I always had "well, at least we are not the Lions". Now that I can't use that excuse...and it sucks.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:19 PM ^
Great post, loved the analysis.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:22 PM ^
I'll admit I hadn't given it NEARLY as much thought as you have, but generally speaking I think the Lions needs don't match up very closely with players Michigan is putting into the draft. Zinter or Keegan make the most sense to me, as the Lions will want to keep building their offense around the OL. I think Zinter in particular could be a really good value pick - he may fall a lot farther than he should due to teams getting spooked by his injury. I like your idea of Barner and/or McGregor as late round pickups IF they're still available.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:33 PM ^
I think Zinter in particular could be a really good value pick - he may fall a lot farther than he should due to teams getting spooked by his injury.
I've heard this from others as well and I don't understand it. Did Zinter have structural damage beyond a broken bone? Otherwise wouldn't a broken leg seem like one of the least spooky injuries? Bones heal and are stronger at the point of the break. The ones that would spook me are ligament or joint issues where cartilage has been damaged. Those sorts of things don't heal and regrow on their own.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:43 PM ^
No, that's the point. I think Zinter's injury was bone only and will be one he can bounce back from. But I wouldn't trust NFL GMs to be totally non-emotional about it. Also, Zinter can't really compete in the combine, so he may get passed by an OL who puts up surprisingly good measurables despite (probably) not having anywhere near the same in-game film that Zinter would have.
He should be a high pick, but I'm banking on some NFL types to get cold feet when they're on the clock.
February 28th, 2024 at 8:03 AM ^
Re-sign Glasgow and Jackson and use the extra cap money from the increase to do a not crazy increase for Goff if he will take less than top dollar to retain a good situation (good OL protection) and good teammates around him ala Brady.
Zinter, McGregor, Trente and Barner are all good fits at those likely draft positions or thereabouts. Love Mike for the Lions but not before the 3rd round and he is better than that so...
February 27th, 2024 at 2:34 PM ^
I think the notion that, after healing, formerly broken bones are stronger at the point of the break is a myth.
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/19/health/19really.html
Edit: I will just quote the relevant section.
This concept that bone adapts to pressure, or a lack of it, is known as Wolff’s law. . .
But this adaptive measure goes only so far. Despite one misconception, there is no evidence that a bone that breaks will heal to be stronger than it was before . . .
Dr. Amaral said that in studies in which healed bones were subjected to bending and twisting forces, the repaired bones were capable of breaking anywhere, including the fracture site. “They never comment that it’s stronger or weaker than the rest of the bone,” he said.
February 27th, 2024 at 3:23 PM ^
User name checking out. Link does not, paywalled
February 27th, 2024 at 4:09 PM ^
A big part of this is just recency bias. Zinter won't have the opportunity to physically perform during workouts and missed the post-season evaluation games. Much like recruiting rankings move, scouts will move other guys up that performed well during these periods.
This could be wrong, but I don't see how Zinter isn't in the conversation for OG1 (and he's clearly not) pre-injury, so perhaps the damage is already fully done.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:14 PM ^
Barner will surprise many and may be looked back on as a draft steal in a couple years. With improved coaching at Michigan, Barner improved by leaps and bounds. With (presumably) top-notch NFL coaching, he will continue to improve in both the pass and run games.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:23 PM ^
Nice job. I like Lions taking Zinter in the third round and Trente for the practice squad. Keegan at that point (3rd or 4th round) would be fine also. Lions need OL quality depth after addressing CB and DL in the first two rounds (or free agency).
There are 6 OL from the National Champions and 2x Joe Moore winners. They were a major strength of the team. Getting 2 or 3 of them seems like a good idea.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^
A related note... I like Junior Colston for what he can do well. One of the analyses I read really praised his ability to diagnose a play and play coverage. Too many UFR's about "covering grass", I guess, but I just about snorked up my coffee. I've always thought he was great IF you could just TELL him what to do. Not as good when he had to figure it out on his own.
That said, I'd like Zinter & Barner, maybe Braiden
February 27th, 2024 at 1:25 PM ^
I'd love to see McGregor on the Lions. I think he has more upside.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^
one other fact that might affect blake and where/when he gets taken is that there will apparently be no franchise-tagged RB's this year, meaning nobody wanted to pay the franchise amount for some pretty good backs that will be available. i think that amount was in the $10-12MM area. recognizing those backs are at the top end of the market, if the market is nevertheless saturated with talent and a deal might be had with some of these better veteran backs, total drafted RB numbers might be down a little.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:04 PM ^
Or the opposite could be true. Teams shy of paying vet RBs the $10/12M they will demand and instead will want to get RBs that are 80% as good but that are on MUCH cheaper rookie deals. If I had to put money on it I would say this is more likely, unless the free agent RBs are willing to take less money.
February 27th, 2024 at 3:26 PM ^
I like your take, but the point I was trying to make is that those guys aren’t going to command those numbers and thus will be available at more reasonable annual salaries.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:47 PM ^
Kenneth Grant and Will Johnson are the two players who are the best fit for Detroit.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:00 PM ^
I'd also add Loveland, and I'd use Graham interchangeably with Grant. 3 or 4 really good players from Michigan, who fit the Lions' needs....but won't be available for another year. Sucks for the Lions, great for Michigan.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:06 PM ^
I'd bet that Loveland ends up on Ravens or Chargers.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:11 PM ^
Loveland? We got this guy called LaPorta you might have heard of.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:47 PM ^
And look what happened to the offense when he got hurt. If they're going to involve a catch-passing TE this heavily in the offense, they could use a 2nd. Loveland looks like as close to a LaPorta clone as possible to me.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:47 PM ^
As much as I like JJ I'm afraid if we take a QB it'll affect Goff, and I want this thing rolling.
I digress. Now that Jim is in NFL I doubt he's tipping off his brother on the M players to take. And it'll be interesting to see if Ravens or Seahawks trade up to jump ahead of the other two to take a M player.
February 27th, 2024 at 12:56 PM ^
My first thoughts were Sainristil for covering slot receivers, Zinter as a solid rotational interior lineman, and Barner to line up opposite LaPorta. , and maybe Nugent as a replacement for Ragnow down the road, but Ragnow will be hard to replace no matter who the Lions get.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:40 PM ^
Lions have Branch for covering slot receivers. Sainristil's skillset is redundant.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:09 PM ^
Michael Barrett late would be good. He can blitz, go sideline to sideline and is decent in coverage. Lions’ ‘backers are liabilities in coverage. With Glasgow and Jonah potentially leaving, give me Zinter!!!
February 27th, 2024 at 1:10 PM ^
Lions need linebackers.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:18 PM ^
Great post OP. I'm going to play along but instead of the Lions, the Browns
Browns needs, in order: WR, DL/Edge, RB, QB, OL,
- 24 Rank J.J. McCarthy
QB | Projection: 1st Round - He's going to be QB3 IMO and will go top five. No chance in hell for the Browns to land him, no first round pick.
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51 Rank Kris Jenkins
DL | Projection: 2nd Round - First potential pick for the Browns. Cleveland needs DL help and he could start immediately.
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55 Rank Roman Wilson
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WR | Projection: 2nd Round - Unless he crushes the Spotrac score at the combine I dont see the Browns taking him. Very analytics-based FA will probably look for more size.
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65 Rank Blake Corum
RB | Projection: 3rd Round - An excellent need fit (would love to see Blake in the orange helmet but his age will be a killer. One of the "guardrails" the Browns FA have is age, he's over 21 (23 to be exact) and they'll view that like milk past it's expiration date on the carton..
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68 Rank Junior Colson
LB | Projection: 3rd Round - Analytics say LBs are the 2nd worst place to invest draft capital in (RBs are #1) so unlikely they take him unless he falls to round 4. Then he'd be an excellent fit.
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76 Rank Mike Sainristil
CB | Projection: 3rd Round - NOT a fit for the Browns. Unlikely they take a CB in this draft unless it's very late. They're loaded at this position with Ward, Newsome & Emerson
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98 Rank Zak Zinter
IOL | Projection: 3rd Round - Very strong possibility if he's there. Browns have two picks in the 3rd round and Zinter would be excellent value if still on the board. We're fairly deep on the line but may be moving off the Jed Willis experience sooner rather than later (gotta try a bit son)
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182 Rank Trevor Keegan
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Possible depth pick. You can never have too many OLinemen
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188 Rank Drake Nugent
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - I think he'll go higher than this but he's a center and we're good there.
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192Rank A.J. Barner
TE | Projection: 6th Round -Kevin Stefanski loves his TEs so yes, very possible if he's on the board here late.
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194 Rank Braiden McGregor
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - They need somebody to pair with Myles. Not sure if they're getting Smith back or not. Maybe
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203 Rank Jaylen Harrell
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - See Brandon McGregor. Same analysis.
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204 Rank Ladarius Henderson
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Browns are pretty set on the interior Oline. Doubtful they would take him
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213 Rank Michael Barrett
LB | Projection: 6th Round - Browns DO need LBs and round 6 is right where you'd expect them to take one. Strong possibility here.
I didnt do the UDFA because who the hell knows where they'll end up. But again, love this post OP, wish I could upvote it more than once.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:19 PM ^
Man I wish Trente had stayed. He's got 2nd round talent.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:24 PM ^
Lions would be wise to scoop up as many as they can. These guys don't know losing.
No way JJ, Zak, & Mikey aren't off the board before these projections.
Roman & St. Brown seem to have similar builds so maybe not a fit but imagine having to cover both those doods.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:26 PM ^
Given how the Lions latest draft classes have performed, I've resigned myself to be over the moon with whomever they pick. They, and I still hesitate to say this out loud, seem to know what they're doing.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
Jenkins is definitely a run stopping specialist. I wouldn't mind the Lions taking him or Zinter in the 2nd. If last year's draft strategy showed us anything it is that the Lions are willing to "reach" for players they identified as valuable. I would imagine Zinter is one of those they have higher on their board than other teams. I think Barnhart showed out at Guard once Zinter went down, I would LOVE a 6th or 7th round pick on him, especially because of his positional versatility on any of the 3 inside spots. If Barnhart had been at guard all season I bet he would be a 5-7th rounder. Barner would be my other pick, with the amount of running the Lions do a TE who can block would be a real asset. It's all about the trenches.
Lions' Picks:
- Round 1: No. 29 overall
- Round 2: No. 61 overall
- Round 3: No. 73 overall (from Minnesota)
- Round 3: No. 92 overall
- Round 5: No. 162 overall
- Round 6: No. 206 overall
- Round 7: No. 246 overall
February 27th, 2024 at 1:42 PM ^
Barner on the Lions would be a terrific fit.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:45 PM ^
1st and 2nd rd should be CB and best available of DL/edge. Zinter and Keegan would be under consideration with the two 3rd and one 5th rd picks which should be OL, which ever DL/edge you didn’t already get and WR. 6th a kicker, and 7th can be whatever: TE, more OL or DL, LB, etc.
February 27th, 2024 at 4:15 PM ^
That would be ideal but we need to get value. I'd be happy with an IOL pick if there's great value at the position, or almost any position if the value is extreme. Can't draft for need early--must get value!
February 27th, 2024 at 9:15 PM ^
That’s why I say the first 2 picks are best value between 3 positions. I think zinter is amazing value in the 3rd if he is there. Keegan I would even be okay with the 2nd third, even if some would call it a reach. He’s great value in the 5th. Some people hate drafting kickers but they’ve struggled since prater left and I think getting a true weapon like a Moody would be great. So I’m willing to take a chance in the 6th.
in terms of value I think depth OL, WR, and TE will be there in free agency. DL, edge, and corner will not be available in free agency.
February 27th, 2024 at 1:47 PM ^
Man, if Trente Jones is really 441, I can't believe Michigan couldn't get the NIL in order to get him to stay and play one more year.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:38 PM ^
Sometimes it's not about money, or at least not ONLY about money.
February 27th, 2024 at 2:57 PM ^
I sort of disagree about Sainristil. He doesn't fit idealy as the outside corner they need, but Brad Holmes says and has each offseason has shown that he'll fill needs with free agency and then he'll draft football players. I honestly don't remember a Michigan player that was more awesome at football than Sainristil. He always rose to the occassion. BH likes to draft captains. Mikey is x2. He loves to compete. Detroit just gave the biggest contract ever to a special teamer b/c he's a damn footballer. I would never, ever, bet against Sainristil. He would be ideal in Detroit. Sticky in coverage. Man or Zone. And loves to attack the run. That's what Detroit wants. Hope he goest to Detroit though chances are low. He will succeed wherever he goes
February 27th, 2024 at 4:18 PM ^
Fun game, I'll play. Over means taking them before the projection and under means after since I view the draft in terms of points and later rounds are less points.
- 24 Rank J.J. McCarthy
QB | Projection: 1st Round - Over, gone by the mid teens. Lions would unironically be an ideal for JJ as they could "redshirt" him
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51 Rank Kris Jenkins
DL | Projection: 2nd Round - Over, probably an early 2nd rounder, doesn't fit what the Lions need. Pass
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55 Rank Roman Wilson
WR | Projection: 2nd Round - Over, already moving up draft boards, doesn't fit with the Lions roster but if he slides I could see them taking a shot anyways
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65 Rank Blake Corum
Under, I would bet my life savings and house Corum is drafted after 65.
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68 Rank Junior Colson
LB | Projection: 3rd Round - 68 is push territory for me. LB positional value drops him a bit. I would want the Lions to pass because we don't need another LB that can't execute a zone drop
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76 Rank Mike Sainristil
CB | Projection: 3rd Round - Under, classic "it only takes one team" guy but I think size and age will spook people enough to push him into the back half of round 3
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98 Rank Zak Zinter
IOL | Projection: 3rd Round - Under, Guards aren't that valuable and his injury will scare teams. One of the few guys on this list I would actually want the Lions to take especially if he's there on day 3.
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182 Rank Trevor Keegan
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Over, seems more like the 5-6th round for Keegan than the 6-7th round.
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188 Rank Drake Nugent
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Under. Undersized but gritty center gets drafted but not until round 7. Ragnow means 0 chance the Lions draft him
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192 Rank A.J. Barner
TE | Projection: 6th Round - Over, Opposite of Corum, I would bet my life savings/house Barner is gone before 192. Definitely ok with a Lions pick here as the 2nd TE has been an issue for while now
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194 Rank Braiden McGregor
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - Over, someone will take a flyer on his measurables earlier than this. We are reaching the point of the draft I have no strong Lions opinions on taking guys. Lottery ticket territory
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203 Rank Jaylen Harrell
EDGE | Projection: 6th Round - Push
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204 Rank Ladarius Henderson
IOL | Projection: 6th Round - Over, too many tools and measurables, someone takes a chance
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213 Rank Michael Barrett
LB | Projection: 6th Round - Under, age and size pushes him into UDFA territory
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266 Rank Josh Wallace
CB | Projection: UDFA - Push, camp body likely PS or misses a roster
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267 Rank Cornelius Johnson
WR | Projection: UDFA - Push, hardest guy to place. Day 2 measurables and awful film. Cowards pick of UDFA
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321 Rank Karsen Barnhart
OT | Projection: UDFA - Push, camp body likely PS or misses a roster. Gets his shot but doesn't have the natural strength for the NFL lines.
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441 Rank Trente Jones
OT | Projection: UDFA - Over, Someone's gonna take a flyer on his measurables. If he ends up a UDFA I would love for the Lions to make him a priority.
February 27th, 2024 at 6:27 PM ^
Zinter and Jones to keep the OL top-notch. This is a must for Goff to perform at his ceiling.
Barner as TE2.
Jenkins as a run-stopper.
Run the ball and stop the run to have success in road games and in the playoffs.
This all being said, the Lions need CB help and pass rush help, and those are the needs I hope they address in FA.
February 28th, 2024 at 9:30 AM ^
The Lions have needs at CB and DE, but my gosh they're extremely thin in the secondary. I will say though, that if Zinter is still hanging out there in the third round, I would trade up to get him. We don't need him to be a Day One starter. But my gosh, if he's ready to contribute by the postseason, our running game may be lethal and hard to stop with a second half lead.
February 28th, 2024 at 6:05 PM ^
If Jenkins isn't a pass rusher or run stopper, what is he?
February 28th, 2024 at 7:37 PM ^
I love the write-up, but...
You said Kris Jenkins isn't a run stopping specialist. WUT?!