Nate Silver's analysis of B1G expansion candidates
Nate Silver's analysis of the best expansion candidates, with a few surprises in his conclusions.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-should-the-big-ten-expand-next-we-crunched-the-numbers/
August 26th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
To hell with Notre Dame. Let them remain independent and mediocre losers.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
I couldn't agree more. Not just in that they're vile and exploited Rudy. But the characterological fit of a private Catholic Univ. is a poor vibe.
I say take Cincinnati and force OSU to deal with an in-state rival in recruiting.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
The conference has knocked on Notre Dame's door a few too many times. Desperation is never sexy.
August 26th, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
Correct. Desperation is not cute.
I think the strategy needs to be to pluck the best fits until we get to 28 or 32 schools and here's why:
1. If we don't our rival will and we run the risk of losing brand value, while the SEC gets stronger.
2. The league MUST expand into Florida and Texas. Adding 4 teams wont have nearly the impact on the brand as the future dictates being in every corner of the map.
West Division: 7-8 Schools
USC, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Arizona, Colorado and a Texas school or 2 (TCU/Baylor/Houston/Texas Tech). Arizona State, Utah and Cal don't offer as much value to the Big10 brand to share revenue with but are outside possibilities.
Midwest Division: 7-8 schools
Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Oklahoma State or Notre Dame).
North Division: 7-8 schools
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Penn State, Indiana, Syracuse, Boston College (and possibly Notre Dame).
East Division: 7-8 schools
Ohio State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, Miami, Virginia, Duke or Clemson (whichever brings the most value to the brand). and yes I would move Ohio State into the east to attempt to even out the strength of each division.
August 26th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Notre Dame's marketability is not what it once was (now that every conference is on TV constantly). I think their take home in the NBC deal is less than each B1G team's annual payout.
Their top rated game in 2021 was Cinci - and that game had something like 1.5m less viewers than Wisconsin/Minnesota.
I like Nate Silver's work but he misses the point. Rutgers' import was not the number of Rutgers fans. It was further unlocking the other B1G fans in the NYC area. There are a great many of those. Now Piscataway gets tens of thousands of Michigan, OSU, PSU, MSU, etc., fans descending on game day. Same with Maryland.
This is the B1G's key logic and strategy.
Keeping with this theme, I think they go with the following four teams in order to hit important markets:
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Miami (YTM)
4. Georgia Tech
People forget that the number of eyeballs in the south is really quite low. And the number of people that truly care about SEC football outside of the south is equally quite low. I'd be betting the long game on the B1G. They have the big teams and the big markets in terms of cities, economic vitality, etc. They also have the better brand.
August 27th, 2022 at 12:17 AM ^
If they arent going to come to the B1G then member teams should stop scheduling them. Outside of games vs B1G, Clemson, openers not on NBC, they aren't really getting great ratings. I think they were down almost 50% last year.
Take away their money makers, and they will come on their own
August 27th, 2022 at 4:20 AM ^
Why do you want them to come??? I agree with not scheduling them, because I never want to watch a norte dame game again.
August 26th, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
Totally disagree with this. I think B10 should target Baker, Andrews, Kalamazoo College and Albion.
August 26th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
If you are taking Kalamazoo, you have to also take Western - RAID THE MAC!!!
August 26th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
Eh.....sure....why not!
August 26th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
I mean yeah… the k college football field is closer to WMU campus than the WMU field is.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
Don’t sleep on the Brits.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
Might have to update the tiny little dinkle dangle field/stadium away bleachers.
Edit: I always liked Albion's color scheme, though. Purple is an extremely underrated color.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Can Santa bring UBC from Canada?
August 26th, 2022 at 10:48 AM ^
Why not Hope, the MIAA champions??
August 26th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Because then you have to take Calvin too.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Oh, great point.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
Oakland (U) is still in play
August 26th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Rutgers dead last in scoring among current and incoming team rankings. Scarlet Knights staying consistent.
August 26th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
This was a cool article. Thanks for sharing
August 26th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
Yeah! I quibble with this and that evaluative criterion, but this is the kind of careful comparative analysis that you just pray that the B1G is doing.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Great article, it thoughtfully considered all the relevant characteristics. That said, I stand by my previous preference:
ORIGINAL BIG 10 DIVISION
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Ohio State
- Chicago *Bring back football*
WANNABE BIG 10 DIVISION
- Michigan State
- Penn State
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Rutgers
- UCLA
- USC
- Stanford
- Virginia
- North Carolina
NEVER PLAY A BIG TEN SCHOOL AGAIN DIVISION (And, consequently, not in the conference)
- Notre Dame
The conference championship takes place at the Rose Bowl. #Getoffmylawn
August 26th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
I dunno about the rest of it, but I plussed you just for the third division.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
Interesting article, thanks for linking OP. I like Nate Silver's quant approach to most things and while there's a ton of subjectivity there wrt his chosen metrics and how he defines them, I'm willing to take it at face value. That having been said, I was most surprised by UNC and Florida St in the no-brainers category. We know that UNC is academically strong and great at basketball but they really look good based on Silver's analysis. And Florida State??? Historically good at football, but recently a train wreck. I grew up thinking they were a huge party school with poor academics but I guess I was wrong and/or times have changed.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
Florida State value is skewed by the presumed Market Size. I'm not sure how relevant that geographic measure is as cable dies a slow death.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Yes, Silver's analysis is sometimes very skewed by his input assumptions. Biggest 2 I see in this is the too low rating for Rutger's "market" and too high on Oregon. For reading at work, those 2 jumped out for me.
Rutgers isn't just important for themselves, they are important for everyone else in the Big 10 to have access to NY market.
Oregon will be forgotten about in 20 years after Nike Knight passes on.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
No Michigan fan of a certain era will ever forget Denis Dixon
August 26th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
The Big10 and people here will have to face the fact that Rutgers will never carry the NYC market. Because their sports are always terrible, they will need help from Syracuse to effectively carry NYC.
August 26th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
No. They don't need Syracuse. They need Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern and every other top-rated Midwestern University who produces 1000s of grads who flock to NYC, NCal, DC upon graduation.
Rutgers just provides a nearby stadium and a ridiculous amount of untapped potential.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
I remember being surprised by FSU's academic profile. I guess they've come up in the world. U Florida, too. Must be the influence of civilized northern migrants. :)
August 26th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Prior to SEC expansion - the only two schools that were AAU members were - Vanderbilt and Florida.
Texas A&M and Mizzou are also AAU members, and Texas will add to that group when they join that conference.
August 26th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
You've probably heard about the great reverse migration--interesting phenomenon, and absolutely a thing. Most of my northern white friends love Black people in theory but don't know any; 30 percent of the population of Tallahassee is Black. The big catalyst, however, was the FL legislature declaring FSU and UF state flagships and pouring lots more money into hires and construction over the last decade. FSU specializes in first-gen kids, and has made that and several other kinds of niche recruiting specialties. Also, the truth is, it has a beautiful campus in a very pretty town. Being the state capital obviously doesn't hurt.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
Here's something OP was too lazy to do - summarize the article...
Nate Silver did his math magic and came up with several categories with which to rank all schools for the B1G - cultural fit, TV market size, sports history (weighted towards football), and oveall (all of these combined). He then averaged it all together and put ND in Tier 1 by itself, and put Washington, Orgeon, FSU, and UNC in a Tier 2.
Taken as a whole, it's an interesting look at how the B1G might be evaluating things, and it makes sense. I do recommend reading the article - all of the categories are explained quite well, and include a short discussion of some school's categorical details (why they may look so good, or bad).
Personally, I say to hell with ND. However, I'd be happy with any kind of combination of the five Tier 1 & 2 schools on his list. When OSU and UT announced they were headed to the SEC my immediate thoughts were that the B1G needed to swing for the fences by going after USC, Clemson, FSU, Washington/Oregon, and UF. Short of that, expansion wouldn't be worth it. I'm seeing my wish come true...
August 26th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
You're correct, I was waiting for him to summarize and say this is who I think needs to join.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
Is there a reason people think teams from the Pac12, B12, ACC are all poachable, but not the SEC...?
Florida is an interesting one to me. Better academics than FSU, would draw in the southern market, and does Florida really want to settle with being the 6-7th best sports school in their conference?
August 26th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Florida isn't leaving the SEC for the B1G. No chance.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
There may be a little bit of a cold war type aspect that. Don't mess with them and they won't mess with us. OSU is a pretty obvious fit in the SEC in a lot of ways and as much as Michigan doesn't care for OSU, they are a big reason the B1G can get the money it gets now.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
The difference is OSU would take a pay cut to go to the SEC, while Florida would get a raise by coming to the B1G.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
The Florida fanbase would be in full revolt. There is NO incentive for them to give up matchups with Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, etc in exchange for teams in the B1G. They aren't that stupid. It's no different than if Michigan went to the SEC and gave up MSU and OSU games.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
I wouldn't be so sure about that. Maybe in the short term, but an SEC contract with OSU is probably more valuable than a B1G contract without OSU.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
I would think a bigger concern than a one-off swipe of OSU would be the SEC going nuclear and forming the national conference. Swiping OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC and top picks from ACC/ND and splitting off from the NCAA. Despite the lesser TV contract at the moment, the SEC probably has the better base off of which to build a national tier one conference.
Ignoring that this would be horrible for the sport in the long term, it would be catastrophic for the majority of Big Ten membership in the short term. A hands-off approach to the SEC makes sense.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
Are you suggesting Michigan might leave the B1G and move to the SEC?
Personally, I don’t think that would ever happen. Too much academic pride, AAU association, etc. That change would require University President approval, and though Santa hasn’t arrived - I could not imagine the Regents ever supporting that.
August 26th, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^
A lot of people have made assertions on what wouldn't happen in realignment based on tradition, yet they keep happening. If the choice for Michigan was being in the only tier one college sports conference or staying out based on principles/academics, I have no doubt Michigan would sign on the dotted line.
I don't think the scenario I laid out is particularly likely. The current path with the Big Ten and SEC combining, officially or not, to form the tier-one division is certainly far more likely. But if the two conferences start sniffing around each other's members, who knows what will happen.
August 26th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
I agree with the cold war analogy. It's better to leave them alone unless their schools come to us asking to be let in. The big picture/goal can be easily achieved by plucking the best fits who are NOT SEC schools.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
I agree, I think that's an interesting aspect in all this territorial warfare. Florida might be intriguing but I'm very interested in Kentucky (I know, I say this all the time). They've had a historically dirty (and racist) basketball program but it's what really matters to them. They're very much culturally an SEC team but the B1G is a much better basketball conference. I could see them being really enticed by the idea of adding Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue and...UCLA to the schedule. Would they really miss any of the SEC conference rivals? Plus their football isn't terrible.
If the SEC tries to pick someone off, that should be the B1G's first counter.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
A good article in which I read. I liked all of the charts and quantifying the candidates. Market size will play a big role, academics, in name only because most of 4* and 5* players are in for NIL and then the NFL-not to criticize but that's what it is today.
The Big Ten expansion stories will come and and will be a side issue because the 2022 college football season is about the begin.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Nice article, love the establishment of the "Rutgers Line" and his proposed 24 team makes sense except I would expect that one of the Arizona schools (ASU) would bump either Cal or Stanford (my guess would be Cal) to get the Phoenix media market.
August 26th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Pretty interesting...except for the idea of Upper and Lower Divisions. College football is stratified (unofficially) enough as it is, we don't need to codify it.
It's interesting Cal had high scores for fit but it's poor athletic history knocked it far down the list. I'm surprised he considers Cal/Stanford/Bay Area a weak media market. Stanford is a national brand and Cal is as well, to a lesser extent. My guess is that interest would return to Cal football, if, you know...they didn't stink. About 15-20 years ago they had a good program and were really fun to watch.
The real surprise to me is Virginia. Very similar to a Michigan: flagship state school, strong academics, excellent at non-football sports as well (basketball, soccer, lacrosse, prob lots of others). And UVA used to be pretty decent at football. And DC/northern VA seems to be a decent media market and it seems like that area as well as the Norfolk/Hampton/VA Beach area likely have a lot of UVA alums and will grow in the future. Plus, UVA geographically isn't too far from Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State and even Ohio State. I thought Virginia would've graded out much higher and I think it deserves a closer look despite his metrics.
August 26th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
Disagree. I think relegation would be AMAZING for college football. It won't happen, but would be one of the best things that could ever happen for the sport as a whole.
I think a lot of people get confused about what constitutes a good college football market. Just because they are big population centers does not mean they hold a lot of interest. The Bay area isn't great. College towns do not have to be huge to carry enormous national weight and bring in $. That being said, I think going after places like Miami, DC, New York, etc. is and was always a mistake. People just aren't really into it in those places and they have other things to do.