Let’s say both Eli and Chaundee return
I know we have two separate threads on this but they are getting long and this might be a little bit cleaner. First of all I don’t think it’s a guarantee yet. From what I have seen it sounds like a strong possibility but nothing is for sure. However if they do it will be both exciting and also creates a little bit of uncertainty. Minutes distribution would be interesting to say the least. I think the front court l is pretty much set for next year.
C: Dickinson/Diabate
PF: Johns/Diabate/Williams
SF: Houstan/Barnes/Chaundee?
The two guard positions is where things get interesting. Does Eli start at the one or the two? If he starts at the one, that leaves Bufkin or Chaundee as the likely starter at 2. Do we have enough ball handling if Eli and Chaundee are the starting guards? We also might run into the sams problem as far as not having guys who can create off the dribble. Bufkin and Collins are 2 guys that can do that. Are they going to buy in playing 10-15 minutes as freshman? Where does Zeb fit in?
Assuming both came back and no one transferred here is my best guess on how things would shake out.
PG: Brooks 20 Collins 12 Zeb 8
SG Bufkin 18 Chaundee 16 Brooks 6
Chaundee plays an additional 6-8 mins at the 3. I think Eli’s minutes will go down as he is now able to rest more with capable back ups. Chaundee plays the same 6th man role but will probably play more minutes than Bufkin and might be our closing player as opposed to a starter. I like Zebs potential but if he isn’t getting a lot of minutes and sees Collins and Bufkins ahead of him, he might seek more playing time elsewhere, which would free up some more minutes for the other 4 guards.
60 percent of the time, they return every time.
Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.
Chaundee starts at the 2. Has the ability to move to 3 if needed. It is a great place for Coach Howard because he has a ton of options with this return if necessary.
Also don’t count TWill out at the 3 and 4. His passing ability is a great assets for high low situations. Plus I still wouldn’t be shocked if John’s left
I like Williams but the fact will be there won’t be a ton of minutes for him next year unless something unforseen happens with attrition. For the 3/4 you would think
3: Houstan 25/Chaundee 5 (10 mins left for Barnes/Williams)
4: Johns 20/ Diabate 12/ Williams 8
Maybe Isaiah Barnes isn’t ready for anything other than Bench Mob which could give Williams 12-15 minutes, but either way I don’t see him playing huge minutes.
However, he could have a clear path to stating in 2022:
C: Diabate
PF: Williams
SF: Barnes
SG: Bufkin
PG: Collins
Long way out to project, but it’s plausible. I hope he stays patient. Could be a great upperclassman player.
But yes, If Johns left that’s a whole different scenario. I just don’t see that happening.
I don't think your 2022 lineup is likely. First, I think it's more likely that Diabate goes pro than Houstan after one year. From what I have seen, Houstan is much like Livers (great shooter and good all around player but not necessarily a great athlete for a 3 so he would really have to kill it to be one and done. Diabate has all the athletic potential to be one and done, but he is much further away from his ceiling and so it's just a question of how quickly he develops as a complete shooter and rounds out his game. Presumably he also needs to gain a bit of strength if he is going to the NBA as a 4/5. I think his likely time frame at Michigan is 1-2 years. Houstan more likely to be a 2-3 year guy IMO. It's also quite possible that Hunter is back in 2022 unless he significantly rounds out his NBA game.
Maybe. Right now Houstan is pretty much a lock to start where Diabate is not. Diabate is also raw and might need more time before jumping to the NBA. FWIW Houstan is projected as a lottery pick for 2022 on nbadraft.net and Diabate is late 2nd round.
Watching Montverde right now and Houstan needs to be a bit more selfish and look for his shot more, he's too willing to defer at times and when you can shoot like he can, you have to shoot more.
Diabate is not a C.
I'd hate to see Johns leave. He seems to draw a foul every other possession which comes in handy at times.
I don't see how there's any way Chaundee starts at the 2.
He's not a great ball handler. Not a great passer. Not great at creating for himself.
To me, his ideal role is coming off the bench to back up the 2 or the 3.
I also think people are getting a little too hung up on a 9- or 10-man rotation. There are only 200 minutes to go around. If your starters average 30 minutes per game, that leaves 50 minutes for the rest of the line-up. The depth is nice in case of injury or foul trouble, but, on a game-to-game basis, 8 players getting a decent amount of playing time is ideal. The top five players on Gonzaga, who blew almost everyone out, all averaged between 28 and 31 minutes per game this year. As did the top five players on Michigan.
Your point is a good one, although I think outside of HD, it's unlikely that any of the starters go more than 30 minutes per game. Possibly Brooks if he returns. That usually happens when you have veterans and not a deep bench. Presumably, we will be a younger team that will rely on a deeper bench. Most of those 30+ minute guys are moving on (Livers, Franz, Smith).
Chaundee Brown will start at 2 in this scenairo to start the year.
Kobe may have more wiggles, but he's also about 30 lbs too light
Chaundee shows he can drive a little bit, but agree ideally the two would be more of a shot creator
Do you take the vet who is physically ready, battled tested, the better defender and arguable as good a shooter or you start a thin, yet to be proven freshmen as your play maker to initiate your offense
to me that all points to Chaundee
From listening to Sam on WTKA, it sounds like Bufkin is going to need a lot of camp Sanderson in the next few months, so his playing time may be limited due to the physical play in the B1G. It also sounds like Collins will most likely be at the 1 unless he shows he can't handle it, then I would expect Brooks or Zeb to play the 1. The other option is look in the portal for another PG.
Caris levert style ! Play some snd keep putting on weight . I hope his wrist heals good
I think it might be just my old brain but interchanging referring to players by their first name sometimes and last names other times makes it sound like we have a lot more players coming back and competing for minutes than we really do.
Having a legit 9-deep rotation makes me turgid with delight.
I think you have 9 solid and Barnes, Jace and Bufkin are a possibility for decent minutes as well. That’s provided we don’t add anyone else to the mix. Barnes and Bufkin will want some minutes this year and I think Jace will too. Minutes distribution is gonna be tough and hard to keep everyone happy
I like Zeb's potential and I think he will get decent minutes next year, whether it's PG or SG, or a mix. I don't think it's likely he will transfer because even if both return, Zeb knows it would be a one year thing and he was willing to be a non-starter as a senior in HS. No reason to think he will not wait his turn since two guard slots would open up the following year (and that's if everyone stays completely healthy).
I think, at least at the start of the season it would look like this:
PG: Brooks (30), Collins (10)
SG: Chaundee (25), Brooks (5), Zeb (10)
SF: Houstan (30), Chaundee (5), Barnes (5)
PF: Johns (25), Diabate (20)
C: Dickinson (30), Johns (5), Diabate (5)
That would be a 9-man rotation if that stood. It's relying heavily on Houstan being ready right away, but of the freshmen he's probably most likely to do that. I like Bufkin, but as was pointed out on the MGoBlog Roundtable, he probably needs to add some muscle.
Brooks and Chaundee coming back would allow for Collins to be more developmental this year as well as Bufkin and Barnes. There's a lot of versatility with this roster if it looks like that.
FYI, you've go 45 minutes at PF there.
Also, I'm not sure why you would have 5 minutes with Johns at PF and Diabate C, and then 5 minutes Diabate at PF and Johns at C.
I generally agree with this though. With the exception that unless Dickinson cuts back on his fouls, there's no way he's going to be playing 30 minutes a game.
Good catch. But yeah my point was that the center position as of now looks like it will be a combination of Johns and Diabate as the backup 5. I think Johns and Diabate kinda split minutes for most of the year. No matter what, the lineup has a lot of versatility.
Agreed. Between and 4/5, I would probably say 25-30 for HD, 20-25 for Diabate and 25 for Johns. That leaves 5 or so for TWill or Houstan (sliding over).
I also don't think Brooks is playing 35 a game. Again, 25-30 is more likely but I think Collins is more like 15 minutes. Chaundee and Houstan probably 25 total rather than 30.
It's just really hard for freshman to log more than 25 minutes on a team with depth. Usually the play is too up and down.
I don’t think there is any way Bufkin comes here as a McDonalds all American and plays zero minutes. You gotta re-do that analysis a little.
The team would just be so deep if Chaundee and Brooks come back. Even if he plays, it wouldn't be more than a few minutes a game.
No disrespect to the kid, he's a great player. But of the freshmen in terms of body type, he would be the one that would need time. That's all.
Of course there could be a transfer from someone like Zeb or Williams that maybes opens up the rotation a little.
Close, but you completely left Williams off.
PG: Brooks (25), Collins (15)
SG: Brown (18), Brooks (8), Jackson (8), Bufkin (6)
SF: Houstan (30), Brown (10)
PF: Johns (13), Diabate (15), Williams (12)
C: Dickinson (28), Johns (12)
Brooks: 33 mpg
Houstan: 30 mpg
Brown: 28 mpg
Dickinson: 28 mpg
Johns: 25 mpg
Diabate: 15 mpg
Collins: 15 mpg
Williams: 12 mpg
Jackson: 8 mpg
Bufkin: 6 mpg
...that's an 8 man rotation with Jackson and Bufkin getting the rest of the minutes (similar to Williams this year).
If you wanted to take 5 away from John's and split it on Diabate and Williams...I wouldn't argue with you.
And in 2022...
PG: Collins (30), *McDaniel (10)
SG: Jackson (25), *Je. Howard (10), Bufkin (5)
SF: Williams (10), *Glenn (18), Bufkin (12)
PF: Diabate (30), Williams (10)
C: *Clingan (25), *Grad Transfer (15)
Collins: 30 mpg
Diabate: 30 mpg
Jackson: 25 mpg
*Clingan: 25 mpg
Williams: 20 mpg
*Glenn: 18 mpg
Bufkin: 17 mpg
*Grad Transfer: 15 mpg
*Je. Howard: 10 mpg
Williams: 10 mpg
*McDaniel: 10 mpg
...no way 11 guys average over 10 mpg, but I have no idea where to pull from.
Oh, one more thing...
DIABATE IS NOT A CENTER! Stop doing that. Just like Todd was never a Center.
Can/Will/Should Diabate play a small C at times, limited lineups, foul trouble? Yes.
But he's not even Brandon Johns when it comes to C.
He's an athletic 4 (PF), screen and dive to the basket for an alley-oop. Play the high post and use his length to go by guys or play high/low with the true C on the block.
Diabate will gets DESTROYED in the B1G if we're relying on him to play C.
And no, the "death lineup"/small ball thing doesn't really work because he can't shoot 3's. That works when you can pull the opposing C away from the basket.
If you're trying to do it with Diabate at C, just plant your C under the basket, help on everything and wait for the rebound.
If Williams shot better, you might be able to pull it off with him in the Draymond role.
Michigan would win a lot of games, have a great shot at another big tourney run, Final Four, and contend for a Natty imho. Just sayin.
eli and chaundee both return
You think Wagner's getting drafted after that end of year showing?
If he chooses to go (which I think is likely), he is a definite first rounder.
Agree - he's a first rounder.
If Wagner decides to enter the NBA draft, yes he will be drafted.
Yeah, he’s getting drafted.
Most players lose their last game, because it’s single-elimination. And, since the top draftees are generally the most important player on their team, a lot of them don’t have great last games, and many of them poor, which is why their team lost.
It’s possible that game might scare someone from taking him in the 10 range, because his biggest drawback is the lack of a ceiling to be an elite scorer you can go to when you need a bucket. But a lot of that was already known, which is why he’s seen as a mid 1st round pick who can give you almost everything else you want.
The NBA does not draft based on single game performances. Never has, never will.
Both Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner are lottery picks this year, regardless of their final college game star lines.
Franz is a lock to get drafted...bigger question is where.
you google any mock draft and most have him in the lottery, with the majority of outliers in the top 25. I have yet to see a mock draft with him falling into the second round.
a 6'10 wing that is athletic and disruptive and has length has a high basketball IQ, is a high end commodity...ignore the last game and look at his shooting % over the year.
While Franz may not become a superstar, he's going to be an NBA pro for many, many years.
Wagner can switch 1 thru 4 on defense without being a liability. That is highly valuable in today's NBA given the floor spacing. I'd bet on him developing a 3pt shot plus he can put the ball on the floor and create at 6'8+. Could end up with a career similar to Tayshaun Prince with the proper development.
Yes, he is a consensus first round pick virtually everywhere. Bad games happen. The NBA knows that.
I'm going on a basketball hiatus and leaving these decisions to Coach Howard. I know bupkis and he is a zen master. I'm looking forward to next season and hoping we will be able to attend and that COVID pauses are a thing of the past.
Well, I've noticed many people posting about Brooks possibly being the starting PG. Howard let him play PG for moments in the tournament and that lineup was rather effective at times.
Though Howard didn't seem to like using that lineup for more than a few minutes, even when Smith was really struggling in games.
So there's not a lot of clear evidence to suggest that Howard likes the idea of Brooks being the starting PG.
Though it seems like Brooks would be good as the starting PG in potential lineups.
- I like the fact that we have these "problems"
- The body of work that Juwan has put together so far allows me to just sit back and feel confident he'll make the right moves.
- The freshmen will vary wildly regardless of their rankings. For example, the gap between Hunter and Zeb year 1. It's impossible to predict.
I think we'd probably see this line up: Collins, Brooks, Brown, Johns, and Dickerson. I don't think you'd have enough ball handling with Brooks at PG and Brown at SG. And I think Collins is closer to being ready for prime time than Bufkin.
I watched Houstan's game yesterday, and he looks ready to play a good amount of minutes. He just needs to add some bulk. He is a mature player for his age.
There’s probably not a “correct” answer at this point but that’s a pretty small lineup and I’d have to think Houstan as a top 10 player would be a starter. The team will need 3 point shooting and he would slide into the Livers role well as a long wing who can knock down the 3. If anything I think maybe Houstan would start at 3 and Chaundee would have the same role coming off the bench to back up 2 and 3.
Agree.
A lot of these lineups predicting Brooks starting at PG and Chaundee at the 3 (!) bear almost no semblance to reality.
I understand people are trying to cram the lineup to accommodate the influx of high rated freshman like Houstan, Bufkin and Diabate, but if Chaundee and Brooks return, they will likely start at the same positions they played most of their minutes this year -- which means the 2 for Brooks and the 3 for Chaundee.
There will still be plently of minutes for Diabate backing up both Hunter and Johns at the 4/5.
Also plently of minutes for Houstan/Barnes at 3, likely backing up Chaundee unless one of them forces his way onto the court in a starting role. Losing Livers and Franz opens up a ton of playing time at the 3. We're losing two NBA players at this position, so those are some big shoes to try to fill with two freshman.
Brooks will start at the 2. If Bufkin can contribute here early there would certainly be minutes available here too.
PG is a question with Zeb/Collins being asked to step up in a hurry unless we get a transfer PG.
All this based on no actual sourcing, aside from some guy in a thread.
Isiah Hole of Wolverine Wire had an article which included his predictions of which Srs.will return,he had Eli & Brown on the will return list.That's the source of all this conjecture.Fun for sure but more wishful thinking than reality based.
Is Mike Smith not returning. I thought that was a possibility as well. Either way, this team would be a mashup of Kentucky youth and Wisconsin experience. That could be lethal.
Eli will not have the same value on next year’s team as he did on this years.
The drop off after Eli on this year’s team was severe. That’s why it was just about impossible to function offensively when losing him to injury. That will not be the case next year.
Unpopular take but If Brooks comes back, I hope it’s as a role player at around 15-20min a game. We need an A+ ball handler and shot creator. Eli is neither.
If Brooks comes back and is limited to 12-20 minutes, that is a good thing, as it would mean that Collins is the one taking those minutes away.
Brooks returning is great for the team because it offers some flexibility, it allows for kids like Zeb and Frankie to grow into their roles...
Without Eli, do you really want the offense run by Collins, Zeb and Bufkin alone?
Eli is an insurance policy, one that the team needs imo, because you don't know what you have in guys like Collins, Zeb and Bufkin. He's not an A+ ball handler, but he has shown he is a great defender and capable point guard who can help these kids with the transition and can take over if its necessary for him to do so
I don’t disagree with anything you say. My hope is we snatch a high level guard in the portal. They are in there this offseason.